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Market Weekly Report | As the Spring Festival approaches, sales of down clothing for the New Year have increased significantly; with the expectation of a warm winter, down manufacturers are more cautious

2025-01-05 来源：金绒浏览量：449

Market Summary

In the first week of 2025 (12.30-1.5), the market generally fell.

As the Spring Festival approaches, major supermarkets and wholesale markets have welcomed a large number of customers who want to buy "new clothes for the Spring Festival", and there has also been some demand for replenishment on the production side. However, this cannot change the weakness of the down market. Before the Spring Festival, the meat duck market entered the peak period of slaughter, and the supply of raw wool continued to increase, driving the down market to continue to fall.

January 5 will be the beginning of the Minor Cold solar term, but the expectation of a warm winter is growing. This difficulty has dampened the enthusiasm of down manufacturers, and wait-and-see sentiment has increased. In addition, downstream processing plants are preparing for holidays one after another, and suppliers are generally in the process of reconciling accounts and collecting payments. Therefore, the demand for finished down purchases is not strong, and the raw material gross transaction volume is also limited.

At the end of December, the industry leader significantly lowered the base price of duck feathers, but compared with the actual situation of the down market, the price is not low, but the slaughtering process has been in a loss-making state. From this point of view, the room for the base price of duck feathers to continue to fall may not be large, and it is unclear how long it will last.

Good News This Week

As the Spring Festival approaches, sales of down jackets in Pinghu, Zhejiang Province have increased significantly

With the Spring Festival approaching, major e-commerce platforms have launched the "New Year Goods Festival" one after another. In Pinghu, Zhejiang, a "famous city for Chinese clothing manufacturing" and "China's down clothing innovation demonstration base", the sales of local down jackets have increased significantly as the Spring Festival is approaching and the temperature has dropped recently.

Recently, many Pinghu clothing merchants often work until one or two in the morning. At the entrance and yard of the warehouse of XY Clothing Company on Xingping Fourth Road in Pinghu City, there are logistics vehicles of Yunda and other express delivery brands parked, and the goods they line up to pick up are fashionable down jackets of various styles.

"Since the beginning of winter, I have to collect about 8,000 down jacket packages a day. Today it will be more, and now it has exceeded 10,000." said Master Ma, a courier at Yunda Pinghu Xindai branch.

"The peak season for down jacket companies is the second half of the year, starting in October. We have just been busy with the 'Double 11' and 'Double 12' shopping festivals, and are now preparing for the 'New Year's Goods Festival'. Our average daily shipment volume now exceeds 20,000 orders." Mr. Lan, head of XY Clothing Company, introduced, "Our sales this year have increased by 30% compared to last year."

"Last year, XY sent 800,000 down jacket packages through Yunda, and this year it is expected to send 1 million pieces." Ye Fengqin, head of Yunda Pinghu Xindai branch, said that currently, there are hundreds of down jacket customers who ship their goods through Yunda Pinghu Xindai branch every day, and the branch ships an average of more than 60,000 pieces per day.

Industry insiders predict that the volume of down jacket delivery is expected to hit a new high during the New Year Goods Festival on e-commerce platforms in 2025. In this regard, Yunda Pinghu Xindai Branch attaches great importance to it. On the one hand, it has increased manpower investment to strengthen the front-line collection force; on the other hand, it has deployed more transport vehicles to ensure that the goods can be transferred in time.

source | 潮新闻

In November, the total profit of "leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry" rose

On December 27, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to November 2024, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide were 6667.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, and the decline continued to narrow by 2.7 percentage points compared with October.

In terms of industries, from January to November, among the 41 major industrial sectors, profits of 22 industries increased year-on-year. Among them, profits of consumer goods manufacturing industry increased rapidly, and profits of 8 out of 13 industries increased year-on-year, while profits of "textile, clothing and apparel industry" maintained a rapid growth (3.9%, the previous value was 3.2%).

The "leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry" achieved a total operating income of 775.22 billion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; operating costs of 668.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; total profit of 41.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, a slightly higher growth rate. Although the year-on-year growth rate has dropped sharply since May, the overall profit of the industry has continued to grow.

Statisticians said that although the profits of industrial enterprises above a certain size are still in a downward range, as the effects of the policy combination continue to emerge, the decline in industrial enterprises' profits continues to narrow and their efficiency has improved.

source | 金绒整理自国家统计局

Bad News This Week

National Climate Center: Average temperatures in most parts of my country in January were higher than the same period in previous years

On December 30, the China Meteorological Administration held a January press conference. Xiao Chan, deputy director of the National Climate Center, said at the meeting that the cold air that will affect my country in early January is not strong, and the average temperature in most areas will be 1-2℃ higher than the same period of previous years, and 3-4℃ higher in some northern areas.

During this period, two cold fronts successively affected my country, causing some fluctuations in temperature. From January 1 to 3, affected by the cold front, the temperature in most areas of my country from north to south will drop by 3 to 6 degrees Celsius, and in some areas of North China and Huanghuai will drop by about 8 degrees Celsius; from January 6 to 8, affected by the cold front, most of central and eastern China will drop by 4 to 6 degrees Celsius, and in some areas it will exceed 8 degrees Celsius.

Xiao Chan said that in terms of temperature, it is expected that in January, except for most parts of South China, the southeastern part of Southwest China, and southwestern Xinjiang where the temperature will be lower than the same period of previous years, the temperature in other parts of the country will be close to or slightly higher than the same period of previous years. Among them, the temperature in central Inner Mongolia, North China, northwestern China, northern Central China, central and eastern Tibet, and southwestern Qinghai will be 1-2℃ higher.

It is estimated that there will be four major cold air processes affecting my country in January, and their occurrence times and intensities are: early ten days (moderate), late ten days (moderate), mid-to-late middle ten days (strong), and late ten days (weak).

source | 中国气象局、国家气候中心

Duck disease causes slaughter companies to slaughter ducks early, and the number of white ducks produced may increase again in 2025

The mainstream large-scale white strip and cut-up slaughtering enterprises basically stopped operating around the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month, which is about 20 days away. According to previous years, there will be a wave of stocking up in the wholesale market before the Spring Festival, but judging from the circulation of the entire meat duck industry this month, there seems to be no sign of stocking up.

As for duck strips, we learned from slaughterhouses and breeders in southwestern Shandong, especially Weifang and Linyi that the duck epidemic has been quite serious recently. The early slaughter and small supply of ducks have affected the production and supply of ducks, and the market has been tight due to the source slaughter and inventory supply during the Spring Festival period.

The overall amount of ducklings is also decreasing, and a wave of duck disease has directly led to the current rational price of ducklings returning to around 2 yuan. It will take some time for large duck factories to restore their production capacity after the New Year, and they have been cautious in recent releases. It is expected that the price of ducklings will continue to decline, in order to stimulate slaughterhouses to start stocking as soon as possible.

According to Mysteel's long-term tracking of sample enterprise data, the average daily output of white-feathered broiler ducks from week 1 to week 52 in 2024 is about 10.5977 million, an increase of 11.53% over 2023. Due to the reduction in breeding duck production capacity in the second half of the year, the expected 15% increase was not achieved.

The highest annual spawning volume is in the 32nd week (early to mid-August) and the 47th to 50th week (mid-November to mid-December), with about 12 million spawnings per day. After the 41st week, the spawning volume is also on a clear upward trend.

In 2024, the hatchery was profitable for most of the period, with an average annual profit of 0.53 yuan per duck, the highest in the past five years. Judging from the parent generation release schedule, there may be a significant increase of 10-15% in the first half of 2025 without special influencing factors. However, in 2025, duck feathers are likely to gradually return to a reasonable price range, which will then have uncertainties in the price of ducklings.

source | 佳合食品集团、Mysteel

The supply of raw materials of white-feathered ducks is bearish on the selling price to a certain extent

As 2024 draws to a close, the current price of raw white-feathered broiler ducks is around 44 yuan/kg. The price in Shandong production areas has increased by 2 yuan/kg compared to the 11th, and has risen in steps after a drop. The duck feather settlement is expected to fall by 0.35-0.50 yuan/kg of duck by the end of December.

The current support points are, on the one hand, that foreign trade orders have finally been placed at the end of the year, and that domestic orders for next year's brands have also begun to be placed. Prices before and after the Spring Festival are supported by buy orders, which serves as a risk buffer. On the other hand, current duck product quotations have basically bottomed out, and as slaughterhouses consider narrowing their losses, there is limited room for further reductions in duck feather prices.

The current risks are, on the one hand, that the e-commerce demand for down products in November and December was lower than expected, the return rate increased, and the risk of trade stocking was relatively high; on the other hand, the number of ducks slaughtered in December was at its highest point of the year, and although the total amount decreased slightly in January, the decline was not large when spread over the start of work days, and the supply of duck feathers is bearish on the selling price to a certain extent.

On the slaughtering side, the cost of slaughtering ducks has dropped significantly in January. Coupled with the start of preparations for the Spring Festival, it is expected that the losses will be narrowed and return to a small profit before the festival. However, with the daily average production capacity still being relatively high, the uncertainty of duck feather prices, and the reduction in demand for group meals, other unfavorable factors have followed. Inventory before the New Year is still the biggest source of pressure.

source | 我的钢铁网 Mysteel

In November, the added value of the leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry fell sharply

In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year (the growth rate of added value is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors). From a month-on-month perspective, in November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.46% over the previous month. From January to November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year.

According to statisticians from the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, the growth rate of manufacturing production above designated size continued to accelerate, and exports of industrial products rebounded significantly, driving the steady improvement of industrial production above designated size across the country.

Among the three major categories, the manufacturing industry grew by 6.0% in November (up 5.4% in the previous month). In terms of industries, the added value of 34 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth. Among the sub-industries under the manufacturing industry, "leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry" grew by 2.5% in November, and the added value from January to November increased by 4.8% cumulatively.

Judging from the changes in monthly growth, the industry had a relatively high growth rate in the first three quarters, but in October, the monthly growth rate dropped sharply to 2.5%. This may reflect that the industry was affected by factors such as reduced market demand in winter and sales that were lower than expected.

source | 国家统计局

News Situation

As the Spring Festival approaches, Pinghu, Zhejiang, as an important base for domestic down jacket production and wholesale, has seen significant growth in sales. This trend reflects the rebound in demand for down jackets in the consumer market. Especially driven by the dual promotion of holiday stocking and cold weather, the down industry's market performance in the peak season is acceptable.

The National Climate Center predicts that despite the cold front in January, the overall temperature will still be higher than usual. For the traditional down jacket sales model that relies on cold weather, this situation may affect the consumption peak of the down jacket market and cause demand fluctuations in the industry.

Due to the current serious duck epidemic, ducks have been slaughtered prematurely, which has also affected the supply of ducks. These changes in supply have affected the price of duck feathers, but in the long run, it is expected that the price of duck feathers will return to a reasonable range, which may have a certain impact on the supply and price of the down market.

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