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Market Weekly Report | Although the temperature has dropped, product sales have not fully recovered; prices are still high, and companies are stocking up to stimulate market enthusiasm

2024-12-15 来源：金绒浏览量：438

Market Summary

In the 50th week of 2024 (12.9-12.15), the down industry's overall market conditions declined, with goose down seeing the largest drop.

With the arrival of the third solar term of winter, "Daxue", the temperature in many parts of the country has hit new lows. Although there has been no cold wave moving south recently, cold air processes are quite frequent, which has accelerated the winter process in places such as Jiangnan, and the sales data of down jackets on various online shopping platforms has continued to grow.

However, consumers are afraid that down products may not be what they claim to be, so they will try to buy them offline even if online promotions are more powerful. However, the high prices of down products in physical stores are still an insurmountable barrier to purchase. These reasons have led to the failure of seasonal sales of down products to fully recover.

The price of down raw materials has gone from high to low this year. Although it is still at a high level, some down companies have to prepare for orders after the beginning of spring next year. Recently, some washing factories have started to receive raw wool and down at receiving points in the south, which has activated the market enthusiasm of vendors.

Good News This Week

Snow and ice tourism in the north drives sales growth of warm clothing in the south

With the opening of Harbin Ice and Snow World approaching, perhaps southern tourists have become more enthusiastic about playing in the snow, and sales data of warm clothing in some southern regions have also seen a significant increase.

JD.com sales data shows that since November 22, warm clothing including down jackets, down vests and down pants have seen significant growth in the southern region. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other regions have achieved double-digit growth in turnover. Among them, Jiangsu Province ranks first in the country in terms of turnover of warm clothing, and Zhejiang, Shanghai and other regions rank in the top 10 in the country in terms of turnover, and have also achieved double-digit growth.

In addition, Guangdong Province had the fastest growth, with transaction volume reaching 118% year-on-year, Sichuan Province's transaction volume increased by 84% year-on-year, and Jiangxi Province's transaction volume increased by 85% year-on-year. In addition, sales of thermal clothing in Northeast China such as Harbin are also continuing to grow. Since November 22, Harbin's thermal clothing category has increased by 90% year-on-year.

A consumer from Guangzhou said: "I bought winter equipment in advance to prepare for a trip to the north with our children. I went to Harbin Ice and Snow World last year and was deeply impressed." According to CCTV.com, ice and snow tourism projects in many parts of the north are gradually kicking off. It seems that many consumers have begun to prepare for ice and snow tours in the north.

source | 21世纪经济报道

Imports and exports continued to grow for eight consecutive months in November, and the foreign trade surplus in the first 11 months exceeded that of the whole of last year.

The General Administration of Customs announced on December 10 that in the first 11 months, the total value of our country's import and export of goods was 39.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with exports of 23.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7% and imports of 16.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4%.

In November, the total value of imports and exports was 3.75 trillion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 2.22 trillion yuan, up 5.8%; imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, down 4.7%; the trade surplus was 692.8 billion yuan. Monthly imports and exports have maintained growth for 8 consecutive months.

Lv Daliang, Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that the State Council recently issued the "Several Policy Measures on Promoting Stable Growth of Foreign Trade", and the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and other departments have also introduced specific measures to accelerate the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, further optimize the port business environment, and promote customs clearance convenience for enterprises. "With the coordinated efforts of the existing and incremental policies in the foreign trade field, the foreign trade of the whole year is expected to end smoothly and achieve the goal of quality improvement and quantity stability."

Researchers said that in November this year, our country's export growth rate was stronger than seasonal, imports declined more than expected, the trade surplus expanded slightly, and foreign trade's contribution to the economy in the fourth quarter increased. The scale of foreign trade surplus achieved in the first 11 months reached 6.29 trillion yuan, which has exceeded the total foreign trade surplus for the whole year of 2023 (5.79 trillion yuan).

"Considering factors such as the continued expansionary momentum of global demand, the tariff effect, and the improvement in our country's foreign trade competitiveness, foreign trade exports are expected to grow steadily in the coming months, slightly stronger than seasonal levels. On the import side, domestic macroeconomic policies are unprecedentedly strong, global policies are generally transitioning towards easing, social expectations have improved significantly, and corporate confidence has increased, which is expected to drive a recovery in import demand," said the researcher.

In addition, from January to November, our country's total exports of textiles and clothing to the world totaled 1.94 trillion yuan, up 3.2%, of which textile exports totaled 0.92 trillion yuan, up 6%, and clothing exports totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, up 0.9%. In November, textile exports totaled 86.47 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year; clothing exports totaled 92.62 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year.

source | 金绒采编自海关总署、21世纪经济报道

Feather and down exports increased, and some factories were busy

In a down product company in Wuchuan, Guangdong, the workshop is processing new feather washing and sorting equipment. This year, the company received a large number of orders for down and feather raw materials from foreign furniture companies for making sofas, mattresses, etc., but because the production capacity could not keep up with the demand, it added a whole feather processing production line.

Li Yue, the sales director of the company, said: "The growth rate of (the amount of feathers and down used in) furniture this year is relatively large, basically 100% growth, and we are currently waiting for the goods. All our goods, including feather pieces, are in short supply. Starting next year, we may focus more on the overseas market."

Yin Haiqiang, manager of another local down products company, said: "Overall, the (export) volume has increased a bit this year. The exporting countries (and regions) are mainly Oceania, Europe, America, Southeast Asia and the Middle East."

According to statistics from the Science, Technology, Industry, Trade and Informatization Bureau of Wuchuan City, Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province, the total import and export volume of the down industry in Wuchuan City, Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province in 2023 (including corporate exports) was 139 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; from January to October 2024, the total import and export volume was approximately 121 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%.

In this regard, Ou Zhimei, director of the office of the Wuchuan Down Industry Association in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, analyzed: "This year's down feather export volume is still stable and growing, because the price of raw materials has risen, and the export amount has also increased significantly."

She also said that in terms of developing overseas business, companies used to export mainly through trading companies, but now that they have seen the benefits of this area, they have basically chosen to export independently.

source | 央视网

Bad News This Week

The annual sales volume of down raw materials remained the same year-on-year, and the price has recently fallen from a high level.

In June this year, the price of down hit a new high this year, with 90% white goose down costing more than 1,300 yuan per kilogram. What changes have occurred in the price of down recently? To understand the situation, CCTV made a special trip to Wuchuan, Guangdong, the production area of down and feather raw materials.

A CCTV reporter introduced in the production workshop that the 90% white duck down she was holding in her hand now has about 300 down beads for every 0.1 gram. The thin down vest she was wearing, with a filling volume of about 50 grams, requires about 150,000 such down beads.

Down is the main material in down jackets. An ordinary duck can produce about 100 grams of feathers, and down only accounts for one tenth of it. Xie Huajing, deputy general manager of a Guangdong down products company, said that they use a hair sorting machine to sort the feathers into about five different specifications.

Feathers of 6-8 cm in length are used to make badminton or decorations, and the remaining parts can be used to make pig feed; Feathers of 4-6 cm in length are generally used as filling materials for sofas; Feathers of 2-4 cm in length are generally used as sofa cushions; Feathers of 1-2 cm in length are generally used to make quilts or high-end sofas. Down is the best for warmth, and is generally used to make clothing or high-end down quilts.

It is understood that the total sales volume of down and feather raw materials this year is basically the same as last year. The increase in raw material prices has led to a significant increase in total sales. The price of raw materials has also continued to rise since the beginning of 2023, and only began to fall three weeks ago.

Li Yue, sales director of a Guangdong down products company, said: "In 2023, the lowest price of goose down was 600 yuan per kilogram, and the highest price was 1,300 yuan per kilogram. Now (the highest price) is about 990 yuan to 1,000 yuan per kilogram. The normal price of our duck down may be 330 yuan to 350 yuan per kilogram, and the highest price is 570 yuan per kilogram. Now it is about 470 yuan to 480 yuan per kilogram."

source | 央视网

Cold winter has not yet arrived, and sales of down products are sluggish

It is understood that in the past two years, due to the sluggish sales of ducks and geese, their breeding numbers have been greatly reduced. At the same time, the arrival of the cold winter in 2023 has brought down jackets and other down products into fashion. This insufficient supply and strong demand are the reasons for the sharp increase in down prices.

Especially goose down, because of its high price and low quantity, some companies have begun to turn their attention to Muscovy duck down. Muscovy ducks are large in size and have been raised for a long time. The quality of the Muscovy duck down produced is close to that of goose down, but the price is much lower than that of goose down.

Pan Ming, deputy general manager of a down products company in Wuchuan, Guangdong, said: "The price of (Muscovy duck down) is now 725 yuan (per kilogram), and goose down generally sells for 900 to 1,000 yuan (per kilogram)."

Li Liangshou, a local farmer, said: "We usually raise Muscovy ducks here, which are raised for 80 to 90 days before being put on the market. The feathers of a duck weigh about 3 to 4 taels, and 3 taels (of duck feathers) can be sold for about 15 yuan."

Just when breeders, down processing companies, and down product companies were ready to make another sales boom this winter, the expected cold winter has yet to come. Li Yue, sales director of a Guangdong down product company, said: "Down is a business that depends on the weather. Because the overall cold winter did not come this year, the overall sales of (down products) are not very optimistic now."

At a down product company in Wuchuan, Guangdong, only some quilt and pillow production lines are still operating normally. Lathe worker Chen Yaqun said: "We are not very busy making down jackets this year. We finished them in early November and (now) we are making school uniforms."

source | 央视网

"Double 12" and "Christmas Season" are coming, but the demand in the textile market has not continued to increase

It is understood that winter orders are the main source of demand for the polyester industry in the second half of the year. Usually, the peak demand season coincides with "Double Eleven", "Double Twelve" and "Christmas season", and the order volume will show seasonal improvement.

Liu Siqi, senior analyst at Zijin Tianfeng Futures, believes that there is indeed a seasonal improvement in order demand during the "golden September and silver October" this year, but due to weak raw material prices and overall warm domestic winter temperatures, market demand has not continued to increase. After entering November, the weaving order index fell slightly, and grey cloth began to accumulate gradually.

"Every winter, winter clothing represented by down jackets starts to sell well, and the sales of related raw materials increase." Zhang Qiang, general manager of Suzhou Forbes Culture Media Co., Ltd., said that because the temperature drop this winter is not as large as in previous years, consumers' shopping enthusiasm is insufficient, and the weaving market conditions this winter are not as good as expected, which has dragged down the demand for polyester.

"This year, there has been a very obvious seasonal differentiation in textile demand, with a surge in orders in the first half of the year, a lull in the summer, and then a recovery in mid-September." Zhang Qiang said that the rapid growth in the number of looms and the market conditions in the first half of the year to a certain extent overdrew demand in the second half of the year.

Lin Yujun, assistant general manager of the second liquefaction department of Xiamen International Trade Chemical Co., Ltd., said that winter orders are the core factor affecting the demand for filament yarn in the second half of the year. The demand in the early fourth quarter of this year was expected to be good, and the e-commerce promotion activities extended the battle line and the demand was advanced, which did drive the growth of filament yarn production rate in October and November. However, at the end of October, the relatively warm temperature affected the sales of down jackets.

Lin Yujun said that this year's terminal showed the characteristics of "weak domestic demand and strong exports", and the textile terminal orders showed a trend of strong in the first half of the year and weak in the second half of the year. "At present, there is no sign of 'rush to export' at the terminal, and the orders at the end of the year are likely to remain the same or even slightly weaken."

source | 期货日报

The supply of "willow duck feathers" continues, and the price has fallen recently

In the crowded poultry section of Liuzhou Haijixing Market, the shopkeepers took ducks on a "transformation" journey from cleaning to depilation. Liu Jingwen, director of the poultry department of Liuzhou Haijixing of Shenzhen Agricultural Group, said that the market handles more than 5,000 white ducks and 1,000 to 2,000 gray ducks every day. Duck feathers are generally produced and sold out every day. "White duck feathers are more popular, mainly from a large breeding farm in Liunan District."

"The feathers plucked from a duck weigh about 200 grams after collection." Liu Jingwen also said that the price of duck feathers is directly related to the production cost of down jackets. Recently, the price of duck feathers has fallen, and both white duck feathers and gray duck feathers have stabilized at 7 yuan per catty. However, a month ago, the price of white duck feathers was 10 yuan per catty, and the price of gray duck feathers reached 8 yuan per catty.

"After a simple cleaning, the plucked duck feathers will be immediately dried." Master Lin, the person in charge of a shop specializing in duck feather drying services, introduced that they use an industrial-grade feather dryer that can process about 20 kilograms of duck feathers at a time, and they need to process about 600 kilograms of duck feathers every day.

Mr. Kong, a local duck feather buyer, said that after being spun dry, the duck feathers are still wet and cost about 7 yuan per kilogram. After being dried, the weight of the duck feathers is greatly reduced, but the selling price is increased to 30 yuan per kilogram. Finally, these duck feathers have to go through the processing of sorting, cleaning and high-temperature sterilization in professional factories before they can be transformed into duck down.

source | 柳州市融媒体中心阅读原文

News Situation

With the advancement of the northern ice and snow tourism project, southern consumers' demand for warm clothing has increased significantly, especially down jackets, down pants and other categories have achieved substantial growth in turnover. It can be seen that driven by policies, tourism consumption has a significant stimulating effect on the thermal clothing market.

our country's foreign trade imports and exports have maintained growth for eight consecutive months, and the current performance of textile and clothing exports is acceptable. With the expansion of global market demand, the improvement of our country's foreign trade competitiveness and the support of government policies, the export of down and its products is expected to further expand the market.

Due to the warm weather, the demand for down jackets in the traditional peak consumption season in winter has not been fully released this year, and the overall orders in the textile market have declined, resulting in the industry's failure to continue the good performance during the "Double Eleven" period. As for the expectations of Trump's tariff policy, there is no obvious rush to export.

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