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Market Weekly Report | Feather prices plummeted due to a number of negative impacts; market demand decreased and industry growth showed signs of fatigue

2024-12-07 来源：金绒浏览量：588

Market Summary

In the 49th week of 2024 (12.2-12.8), the market generally fell.

The prices of duck down have plummeted recently, due to the increase in white duck feather production, the decline in sales of down products, and the crackdown on counterfeit down jackets by the Quality Supervision Bureau. At the same time, the price of down is still above the historical median line, and there is still pressure for a correction. In addition, the average temperature in my country in November this year hit a record high for the same period in history, which also caused the sales of winter clothing market to be sluggish.

Under the heavy negative impact, the down products business is relatively bleak this year, and the risk of suppliers' payment collection has increased, so the current down factories are generally conservative in operation, and this year's business may have entered the final stage ahead of schedule. At present, it seems that we may have to wait until the order situation becomes clear next year before the down prices can stabilize and rise.

In the future, the industry may even undergo a round of reshuffle, and only companies with strong quality control and brand reputation will be able to stand out, while businesses that rely on low prices and low quality may face operating risks.

Good News This Week

Seize the "cold" business opportunities, the temperature may rise in late December

Recently, as the temperature drops further, down jackets and other winter clothes have become a must-have for people to keep warm. In a warm clothing brand store in Chaoyang Joy City, Beijing, Ms. Sun, who was trying on the latest down jacket, said: "The temperature dropped too fast in the past two days, and the lowest temperature dropped to below zero in the blink of an eye. I hurried to buy two thick clothes."

On various online shopping platforms, the recent sales data of cold-weather clothing is also quite impressive. According to Pinduoduo data, since November, the search volume of down jackets has increased by 150% year-on-year, and the order volume in Northeast China has increased by 80% year-on-year. According to Vipshop data, since late November, women's down jackets have ranked among the top five sales categories on the platform, and the sales of children's down jackets and men's down jackets have also continued to grow recently.

From the 6th to the 8th, a new cold front will arrive and temperatures in all regions will drop again, with the drop in temperature being more obvious in Northwest China and North China. Around the 7th, the highest temperatures in Tianjin, Yinchuan, Urumqi, Jinan, Zhengzhou and other places may hit a new low this winter.

As the cold front moves southward and rain develops, the temperature in the south will continue to drop. Around the 8th, the highest temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will drop to around 10°C, and in some parts of South China it will only be around 15°C. At present, the winter front has arrived along the Yangtze River, and many places in the south of the Yangtze River may officially enter winter.

According to the rolling forecast of national climate trends for the winter of 2024/2025 released by the National Climate Center on December 4, temperatures in the northwestern part of Northeast China, northeastern and parts of western Inner Mongolia, northwestern part of Northwest China, northern Xinjiang, southeastern part of Southwest China, and central and western South China are lower than the same period of previous years. Temperatures in most other parts of the country are close to or slightly higher than the same period of previous years.

There were three major cold air processes that affected my country in mid-to-late December, with the following time and intensity: December 17-20, moderate; December 23-24, weak; December 27-29, weak. Therefore, by mid-to-late December, my country may gradually begin to warm up.

source | 中国证券报、中国天气网、国家气候中心

Cold-proof products such as down jackets and sleeping bags have become a hot export destination recently

As winter deepens in the northern hemisphere, down warm clothing and cold-proof sleeping bags are welcomed by overseas consumers and have become a hot export market recently. Recently, Yangzhou Customs issued a preferential FTA certificate of origin for China's exports to Australia for a batch of down jackets worth 630,000 yuan from Yangzhou Aiklant Leisure Products Manufacturing Co., Ltd. It is estimated that this batch of goods will receive a tariff reduction of about 30,000 yuan.

The company mainly produces and sells clothing, sleeping bags, shoes and hats, and bags. The products are mainly exported overseas. Recently, more than a dozen production lines in the workshop have been running at high speed. "The down jackets we produce are mainly exported to Europe, America, Australia and other places. The export peak season starts in July and August, and now is the peak sales period." said Zhu Xiaogang, the company's manager.

At present, more and more overseas customers are asking them to apply for certificates of origin to enjoy tariff preferences. From January to October this year, the company applied for 60 certificates of origin from the customs for export down goods worth more than 80 million yuan. The number of visas increased by 15% over the same period last year, and the goods enjoyed tariff reductions of about 4.2 million yuan.

It is understood that from January to October this year, Yangzhou Customs issued certificates of origin for down jackets, sleeping bags and other cold-proof products to enterprises in its jurisdiction with a total value of more than 174 million yuan. The products are mainly exported to Europe, the United States, Australia, Japan, South Korea, South America and other countries and regions. The enterprises enjoyed tariff reductions and exemptions of about 15.6 million yuan in the importing countries.

source | 新华日报

Bad News This Week

Down jacket industry is having a hard time. The way to break the vicious competition is to insist on "quality and cost performance"

After CCTV News reported that the regulatory authorities had investigated and punished 70,000 "zero down" down jackets, the entire industry was facing a crisis of trust. The largest professional down jacket wholesale market in China, Pinghu China Garment City, also faced pressure from public opinion and inspections.

"There have been major market inspections in the past few days to check for 'flying silk'. Maybe some people don't have confidence in their products (so they temporarily closed their doors). "Xiao Yu, a staff member of a factory store, said that his store was not affected by the public opinion. "It's good to have such inspections. It protects our high-quality stores. Some products of questionable quality are very cheap, which disrupts the price system. We can't say anything."

The down jacket industry, which has been mired in negative public opinion, has been having a hard time this year due to rising costs. "Down prices have reached such historical highs before, but they have never been rising for a long time like this year." said Xiao Xiangyang, general manager of Pinghu Xuezilan Clothing Co., Ltd. Terminal prices cannot rise, but costs have increased significantly. For some manufacturers, gross profit margins have shrunk by 30 to 40%.

However, Xiao Xiangyang and other industry insiders believe that the cost dilemma will not last too long. If the terminal demand for down jackets is relatively weak this year, it can be predicted that the prices of goose down and duck down will go down in the future. However, the vicious competition in the industry will continue, which will increasingly test the innovation and overall supply chain management capabilities of merchants.

In addition, Wu Xuequan said that from the wholesale volume of down jackets, after experiencing an explosion in early November last year, it gradually returned to a stable state, but this year the wholesale volume has not exploded and is generally stable. At present, the actual sales volume is 20 to 30 percent less than the same period last year, but it is not ruled out that the weather will turn cold around "Double 12", and the consumption of winter clothing will be expected to increase, and the order volume will rise against the trend temporarily.

He also believes that what is more worthy of attention is the intensified competition and internal competition in the industry. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to the gradual increase in business pressure in recent years, and the price war model of online e-commerce platforms has also put pressure on the supply chain. "In the past, consumers believed that the price of a down jacket was more than 700 to more than 1,000 yuan. Now down jackets for 300 or 400 yuan are everywhere, and there are even those for 100 or 200 yuan during the off-season. This is not a healthy situation."

Wu Xuequan revealed that the way to break the "roll" is to insist on "quality and cost performance". In fact, as far as the entire down jacket supply chain is concerned, the demand for low-price rollback and quality upgrade are in parallel. YaYa, a down jacket brand that has become popular in recent years, has 40 to 50 percent of its supply chain from Pinghu. After the transformation and upgrading, Bosideng's product price system has been continuously improved and its revenue has increased. Bosideng has cooperated with many merchants in the clothing city.

At the same time, the clothing city encourages existing stalls to do original design or increase investment in original patterns by establishing an incentive mechanism and reducing rental costs. "A long time ago, domestic clothing practitioners went to Dongdaemun, South Korea to purchase 'copy patterns', but now when we travel to South Korea, we can find Pinghu export products in Dongdaemun, and our foreign trade pattern has also been improved." Wu Xuequan said.

source | 银柿财经

Down jacket manufacturers and sellers are "attacked from both sides", and the industry reshuffle is happening under the "warm winter cold wave"

Since November, the whole country has generally entered a warm winter mode. At the same time, the media has recently exposed the chaos of using silk to fill down, counterfeiting and selling fake goods, which has put the down jacket industry on the cusp. In addition, the price of down has continued to rise since 2023, which has brought a great impact on the industry chain, especially the downstream enterprises.

"The clothing industry is very sensitive to changes in weather factors, especially down jackets, which are mainly sold in winter. Especially during the 'Double 11' period, the sales volume varies greatly when the weather is cold or warm, and sometimes even doubles," said Wu Yu, operations director of Down Gold Network.

In addition, the huge increase in down jacket sales last year also led to a certain degree of sales slump this year. According to the "2024 Down Jacket Survey", in the question "Why not buy down jackets this year?", 72.56% of consumers chose "bought them in the past two years" as the option with the highest number of votes. This year, the rising cost side and weak demand side have made down jacket manufacturers and sellers "attacked from both sides."

However, the weak demand in the down jacket market has also caused down prices to fall recently. "Judging from the overall situation, down prices are likely to show a downward trend in the short term," said Xu Shuijun, chairman of Huaying Agriculture. According to data from the Down Gold Network, from early October to the end of November, white duck down and white goose down fell from 544 yuan/kg and 1,191 yuan/kg to 488 yuan/kg and 1,084 yuan/kg, respectively, a drop of about 10%.

"The current drop in down prices does not have much impact on down product factories, because they have basically completed their stocking before Double 11. But if down production and processing factories still have a large inventory of raw materials, they will face losses." A relevant person in charge of the Wu Yue Down Company said that some of his peers have already lost hundreds of thousands of yuan, and some have even lost millions of yuan.

Traditionally, the peak season for down jackets lasts from November to January of the following year. At the mid-term performance conference of Bosideng, Rui Jinsong said that although the performance in November was lower than expected, he was confident that he would achieve the annual growth target. The leading brands are confident, but it is foreseeable that a profound industry reshuffle is also taking place under the "warm winter cold wave", and many small and medium-sized manufacturers may not survive this winter.

source | 证券时报、有意思报告

The breeding poultry will enter the period of suspension of seedlings, and the current practitioners are very enthusiastic about restocking

Looking back at the period from January to November this year, the trend of the breeding poultry side can be described as "outstanding", with profits in most of the period, with an average of 0.61 yuan/bird, up 371.55% year-on-year from 2023, the highest in the past five years. However, it turned downward after the beginning of October. The main reasons are: first, the stable growth of seedling supply has weakened the support for prices; second, the deep loss of cold storage has led to strict control of the release cost.

Due to the high temperature and humidity in the third quarter that affected the performance of breeding ducks, the recovery of egg supply was delayed, resulting in lower-than-expected hatchery output in November. The current average daily output is 11.8-12 million, slightly more than the balance point in the first half of the year, but considering the last batch of ducks to be slaughtered before the festival, practitioners are more motivated to restock, and the current supply and demand are basically balanced.

As of November 27, the inventory of small white strips was close to bottoming out, and the quotations began to rebound from the bottom. Since the start-up period in September and October was at a relatively low level, the current enthusiasm for supply is relatively high. The supply volume of split and large white strip manufacturers is fixed throughout the year, and there has been no obvious trend of reduction.

In December, poultry breeding companies will gradually enter the hatching suspension period, and the supply of ducklings will be more concentrated in medium and large enterprises, and many farmers may reduce their demand for restocking. According to the survey, on the one hand, the hatching suspension period of leading ducks will be delayed or shortened, and the corresponding release time will be closer to the Spring Festival holiday; on the other hand, the output of ducklings during the hatching suspension period is expected to be higher than the normal value in previous years.

source | 我的钢铁网 Mysteel

In October, the added value of leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry fell sharply

In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year (the growth rate of added value is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors), and the previous value was 5.4. From a month-on-month perspective, in October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.41% over the previous month. From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year.

According to statisticians from the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the country's industrial production above designated size remained generally stable, with most industries, regions and products achieving growth. The growth rate of manufacturing rebounded, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing providing significant support. The effects of macroeconomic policies continued to emerge, and the industrial structure continued to be optimized.

Among the three major categories, the manufacturing industry grew by 5.4% in October (5.2% in the previous month). In terms of industries, the added value of 35 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth. Among the sub-industries under the manufacturing industry, "leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry" grew by 4.0% in October, and the added value from January to October increased by 5.1%.

Judging from the changes in monthly growth, the industry had a relatively high growth rate in the first three quarters, but in October, the monthly growth rate dropped sharply to 4.0%, but it still maintained an overall growth trend. This may reflect that the industry was affected by factors such as reduced market demand in winter and sales that were lower than expected.

source | 国家统计局

In October, the total profit of "leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry" continued to decline

On November 27, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to October 2024, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 5868.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, a significant decrease of 17.1 percentage points from September. The profits of more than 60% of industries improved compared with the previous month, and the recovery of revenue led to the improvement of corporate profits.

From the perspective of different industries, from January to October, among the 41 major industrial sectors, only 20 industries saw year-on-year profit growth, but 27 industries saw faster year-on-year profit growth than in September, or saw a narrowing of the decline or a turnaround from decline to growth. It should be noted that the profit growth rate of the "textile, clothing and apparel industry" turned positive (3.2, the previous value was -2.6%), and the decline rate increased month by month.

Among them, the "leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry" achieved a total operating income of 695.19 billion yuan from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; operating costs were 600.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; total profits were 36.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and the growth rate continued to decline.

Statisticians said that although the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size are still in a downward range, the efficiency of industrial enterprises has improved due to the accelerated implementation of existing policies and the intensified introduction of a package of incremental policies.

source | 金绒整理自国家统计局

News Situation

With the arrival of winter in the northern hemisphere, down jackets and cold-proof sleeping bags have become hot export products. This shows that despite the fluctuations in the domestic market, the demand for down products in the international market remains strong, and down product manufacturers are still highly competitive in the global market.

The recent fake down jacket incident exposed quality problems in the industry, and some businesses chose to temporarily close due to regulatory and public pressure. This incident exacerbated the trust crisis in the industry and also made consumers doubt the quality and purchase of down jackets.

In December, poultry breeding companies will enter the period of suspension of breeding, and the breeding poultry breeding industry is generally more enthusiastic about restocking before this period. With the slaughter volume of white-feathered meat ducks in November hitting a new high this year, it is expected that the supply of white duck feathers will not decrease until the end of the year, which will put pressure on the price of down again.

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