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Market Weekly | Cold air is the protagonist, winter clothing enters the peak sales season; La Nina is difficult to give birth, and it may not come out this winter

2024-11-25 来源：金绒浏览量：72

Market Summary

In the 47th week of 2024 (11.18-11.24), the price of goose down was stable, while that of duck down fell.

Recently, the price of down has fallen sharply as buyers have stopped purchasing. Although we can hope for a rebound in the market with the first cold wave this winter, it is unlikely to last long, because according to the forecast of the China Climate Center, there will only be three rounds of weak to moderate cold waves in mid-to-early December, and the temperature at that time may be close to or slightly higher than the same period of previous years.

Another factor that will have a lasting impact on the market is avian influenza. Since October, the global avian influenza epidemic has shown a trend of multiple outbreaks, which may have a long-term impact on breeding and down production. In addition to suppressing some export demand, especially low-end down products in the European market, it may also increase the difficulty of imports, causing domestic companies to rely on domestic supply, and may even promote the development of alternative artificial filling materials.

Good News This Week

Statistics of down and feather exports from major provinces and cities in October - Growth trend

According to Chinese customs data, the export volume of down and feathers increased significantly in October 2024, and the export value also increased significantly. Among them, Anhui Province ranked first in the country in terms of both export volume and export value of down and feathers in that month.

In that month, Anhui Province exported about 1,327 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 33%; the export value was about 148 million yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 94%.

In October 2024, Zhejiang Province ranked second in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers, with a slight difference in that month.

In that month, Zhejiang Province exported about 1,275 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 6%; the export value was about 148 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%.

In October 2024, Jiangsu Province exported about 136 tons of down and feathers, up 22% year-on-year; the export value was about 30 million yuan, up 40% year-on-year. The province's down and feather exports have declined for seven consecutive months, but the cumulative export value from January to October this year has increased by 31% year-on-year.

In October 2024, Guangdong Province exported about 165 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 6%; the export value was about 21 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.04%. Although there have been many twists and turns, the province's down and feather exports have shown a booming trend since this year. In the past two months, Guangdong Province's down and feather exports have surpassed Jiangsu Province, ranking third in the country in that month.

In October 2024, Shandong Province exported about 53 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 16% year-on-year; the export value was about 21 million yuan, an increase of 172% year-on-year.

Shandong Province, with its relatively stable export volume, has gradually surpassed Shanghai in terms of total exports during the year. Although Shanghai's down and feather exports hit a 41-month high in May, they have since been extremely sluggish.

来源 | 金绒采编数据来自海关

A big drop in temperature is coming, Sijiqing enters the peak season for winter clothing sales

Sijiqing is entering the peak season for winter clothing sales, especially down jackets. Recently, the streets are as busy as ever, with loaders carrying large and small bags coming and going, and merchants putting up winter clothing promotion banners with the main slogan "Winter is coming, but the atmosphere is coming first."

Shop 1001 on the first floor of Wangtian Sijiqing Boutique Women's Clothing has been welcoming buyers from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai as soon as it opened at 6 a.m. recently. "Mostly large items, but thick down jackets and winter clothes with fur collars are not in their peak season yet. It is estimated that the peak season will be in mid-to-late November," said the owner, Mr. Zhao. A merchant nearby said that more customers from the north are coming to pick up goods now, and "there are still thousands of orders a day."

"The hot-selling items are mainly Chanel-style down jackets and traditional Chinese style down jackets. Compared with traditional Chinese style down jackets, Chanel-style down jackets are more popular." Ms. Tong of "Fashion Frontier" said that Hangzhou's winter is "easy to withstand", but it does not make you look bloated when you wear it, but makes you look more feminine.

Speaking of wholesale, Ms. Tong thinks that most of the merchants who come to buy goods come from the north where the temperature has dropped. "Now people prefer to buy goods through video. They get a call and our models wear them for them to see. They buy hundreds of thousands of goods at a time." She also thinks that the busiest time will be next week. "It will definitely be crowded by then."

"Feather Queen" has now entered its peak sales season, "selling about 1,000 to 2,000 pieces a day. White duck down jackets cost 600 to 800 yuan, and goose down jackets wholesale for around 1,000 yuan." The owner, Xu Feng, said that goose down has become popular this year.

"Jiangnan Tribe" is a 20-year-old shop. The owner, Ms. Wu, recommends their "Puff Series" down jackets the most. As the name suggests, the down jackets are super puffy and look as cute as "puffs". Currently, "Jiangnan Tribe" can sell 1,000 pieces a day, and it is estimated that "3,000 pieces a day will not be a problem next week."

source | 潮新闻

The weather in late November will still be dominated by cold air

In the past few days, the temperature in many places in central and eastern China has gradually dropped to the recent low point. From Northeast China to South China, a large area will create a new low after autumn. The highest temperature in many places in central and eastern Inner Mongolia and Northeast China will be less than 0℃. After the temperature drops, the highest temperature line of 20℃ will retreat to the southern part of Jiangnan and the northern part of South China, and the lowest temperature line of 0℃ will reach the southern part of North China and the southeastern part of Northwest China.

Unfortunately, the low temperatures caused by this round of strong cold air will not last too long. After its impact ends, temperatures in central and eastern parts of the country will gradually rise from north to south to a level higher than the same period in previous years.

However, the weather in late November will still be dominated by cold air! The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that from the 23rd to the 27th, affected by the cold wave, most parts of our country will experience significant wind and cooling weather, with temperatures generally dropping by 6℃ to 10℃. Parts of the eastern part of the northwest, Inner Mongolia, northern North China, and Northeast China will experience a drop of more than 12℃. Around the 28th, the lowest temperature of 0℃ will be pushed south to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

In addition, according to the GFS (Global Forecast System) forecast map of the Arctic Circle around December 2, the central and eastern regions of our country will continue to be affected by the cold wave, and a large area of cold air will also move southward in Central Asia. In the future, most parts of our country may continue to be affected by the weakening and stagnation of the cold wave, with low temperatures.

source | 苏南气象爱好者、中国天气网

The scope of home textile subsidies has been expanded, which is expected to boost the consumption of down bedding products

Affected by economic fluctuations and the epidemic, the willingness and expenditure of the home textile market have declined to a certain extent. In order to stimulate consumption, the government has recently launched a series of home textile subsidy policies, aiming to revitalize the market and increase consumers' enthusiasm for purchasing home textile products. This policy is mainly divided into two stages:

The first phase is concentrated on the Double 11 period. A series of support provided by the Shanghai Municipal Government mainly covers a variety of home textile products such as quilts, bedding sets, duvets, etc., with a subsidy amount of about 15%. Consumers need to pay through UnionPay QuickPass, and the subsidy is limited to Shanghai.

The second phase is after Double 11. On the one hand, the delivery address requirements for users who participated in the home textile subsidy activities on the Taobao platform have been expanded from the original Shanghai area to inland areas across the country; on the other hand, the JD platform has launched a national home textile subsidy activity with a subsidy of up to 20%. The activity covers all categories, and the payment method must be selected as Cloud QuickPass. The subsidy is open to users across the country, which is expected to further boost the demand for home textile consumption.

Recently, Luolai, Mercury, and Fuanna have launched home textile subsidy activities on online platforms and offline stores in corresponding regions. Although the current activities have been launched for a short time, considering that the subsidy activities cover a wide range of categories and have large discounts, terminal sales are expected to be boosted.

Since the implementation of the subsidy policy, Luolai Home Textiles' stores have achieved an average year-on-year growth of more than 39%; Mercury Home Textiles not only participated in the subsidy activities, but also superimposed the company's promotional activities, stepped up efforts to launch popular products such as the large goose down winter quilt imported from Hungary, and achieved a sales growth of more than 35%; Fuanna's 16 stores went online on the 9th, with a significant increase in sales performance, up 71% month-on-month.

However, the implementation of the policy is not without challenges. Although offline stores and online platforms are actively cooperating, consumers need to conduct real-name authentication on the Cloud QuickPass platform in advance and use the subsidies in designated merchants. In short, some consumers may give up this offer due to the complicated procedures.

source | 搜狐号、国泰君安证券

Bad News This Week

Australian Bureau of Meteorology: La Nina, which can bring a cold winter, may not come this year

On November 14, local time, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the probability of La Niña occurring between October and December 2024 is 57%, and the probability of it lasting from January to March 2025 is 61%.

In comparison, NOAA's forecast last month was that there was a 60% chance that La Niña would occur from September to November 2024, and a 60% chance that it would last from January to March 2025. It can be seen that forecasters still believe that La Niña will occur and last into winter, but it is most likely to be a weak La Niña phenomenon.

Currently, La Niña is developing late - only twice in the 75-year historical record has La Niña formed between October and December. ENSO events are usually strongest in winter, so there is not much time left for La Niña to strengthen.

However, even a weak La Niña event can change global atmospheric circulation and produce some typical La Niña effects, such as winter droughts in the southern U.S. In the coming weeks, climate models will give their winter forecasts, including whether they signal more La Niña effects that are consistent with relative measurements.

In fact, "La Nina" is not the only key factor that determines whether a winter will be cold or warm. It can only be said that it makes the possibility of cold air becoming active higher. Since the influence of weak La Nina is relatively weak this winter, other weather and climate patterns may have a greater impact.

The Japan Meteorological Agency also recently said that as winter approaches, there seems to be signs that La Niña is developing, but the probability of neutrality is 60%. However, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's model shows that it will remain between the ENSO neutral threshold (−0.8°C to +0.8°C) during the forecast period until February 2025.

source | 金绒采编自NOAA、ENSO博客

The "late but arriving" cold front cannot save the peak sales season of Pinghu Down City

Recently, a strong cold front has moved southward, causing a significant drop in temperature in most of the Yangtze River Delta. However, the "late but late" cold front cannot save the peak season for down jacket sales in Pinghu Down City. The most direct evidence is that there are still a lot of empty parking spaces in the market's parking lot.

"In previous years, the surrounding roads were all jammed, not to mention the parking spaces in the market," said Liu Jianhong, a veteran in Down City. In the past, after November, as buyers flocked to select products, the customer flow of Down City increased visibly. In contrast, although there are customers coming in and out of each store every day, it is still much quieter than in previous years.

Dai Shihui, a merchant at Down City, believes that the sales window for down jackets is not very long, especially in the Yangtze River Delta region. The abnormally high temperatures that have continued since the beginning of autumn this year have actually greatly shortened this window period. Even if a cold wave suddenly arrives in the future, it can only stimulate consumption temporarily. If it is applied to sales throughout the year, the boost is still limited.

She believes that under the current climate conditions, the purchasing strategies of terminal retailers may become more conservative: "From the perspective of retailers, if down jackets are put on the shelves on a large scale now, it may actually compress the market space for autumn clothing; from the perspective of consumers, as long as the weather is not cold enough, coats and jackets are enough for the winter, and there is no need to buy a new down jacket."

Liu Jianhong found that the secondary wholesale market, which was once the main purchasing force, is now gradually declining, and small retailers from all over the country have begun to appear frequently in the market. "We didn't like to do business with these retailers before. They took a few pieces of this style and a few pieces of that style. The total amount was too small and it was not satisfactory. But now the most dynamic terminal market is precisely these roadside clothing stores and boutiques."

She believes that how to adapt to this "small order, quick response" model may become a new issue that these "old hands" who are used to the down jacket business must face.

source | 上观新闻

Down clothing import and export statistics (October) - end of the period

In October 2024, our country exported about 4.024 million down jackets, a decrease of 18% from September this year; the export value was about 832 million yuan, a decrease of 25% from September this year.

Down jacket export table in October 2024

商品名称	数量 (万件)	人民币 (亿元)	数量同比去年	金额同比去年
棉制男羽绒服	8.8	0.15	-79%	-75%
化纤制男羽绒服	140.7	3.10	18%	11%
棉制女羽绒服	5.5	0.10	-77%	-72%
化纤制女羽绒服	247.3	4.96	-16%	-4%

Export situation of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export situation of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

The data shows that the export of down jackets is in its peak season, but it is currently showing clear signs of decline. The export volume in October this year was down 16% year-on-year (down 39% in June, 25% in July, 15% in August, and 26% in September), and it was the month with the lowest volume in all Octobers in the past 10 years.

Looking at the situation in recent years, September is basically the period when the peak season for down jacket exports comes to an end, and the export volume will decrease month by month thereafter.

In terms of imports, in October 2024, about 1.886 million pieces of down jackets were imported, an increase of 2% from the previous month; the import value was about 1.299 billion yuan, an increase of 2% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

News Situation

In October, our country's down and feather export volume and export value increased overall, with Anhui, Zhejiang and other places performing particularly well. This shows that our country is still competitive in the global down market, but regional differences have further emerged. At the same time, the export performance of down jackets was sluggish, with a significant year-on-year decline, indicating that international market demand has not yet fully recovered.

Although the cold front has brought about a temporary drop in temperature, the overall trend is still that the temperature is higher than the same period of previous years. This climate change may stimulate down jacket consumption in the short term, but it may weaken demand in the long term, and companies need to be more flexible in responding to the shortening of the sales window.

Climate uncertainty poses a challenge to the seasonal demand of the down apparel industry. A weak La Nina phenomenon may weaken cold air activity, thereby delaying or shortening the peak of consumption in the winter clothing market. At present, the El Nino index has exited the La Nina range, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology believes that this ENSO neutral state will most likely continue until February 2025.

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