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Market Weekly Report | Down jacket brands collectively exploded on "Double 11", and the clothing city has been slow to wait for the peak of orders

2024-11-17 来源：金绒浏览量：631

Market Summary

In the 45th week of 2024 (11.11-11.17), the market generally fell.

Since Trump won the US election, his "traffic physique" has been clearly demonstrated. For textile people, the most concerned is naturally his tariff policy on China, and the recent topic of "the United States canceling China's permanent normal trade relations status" is at the forefront. In short, it means canceling China's most-favored-nation treatment.

This may mean more extensive and stricter tariff measures. In addition to facing higher tariff barriers, some goods may be transferred from low-tariff categories to high-tariff categories. The United States is one of China's largest single export markets. If exports to the United States are significantly reduced, China's foreign exchange reserves may be affected, which in turn affects the RMB exchange rate and economic growth.

US importers are expected to rush to import goods from China before Trump's inauguration in January next year to avoid potential cost increases. In previous years, November to January is usually the peak season for down feather exports to the US. This year, the down market is depressed because of the simultaneous decline in domestic and foreign trade demand.

Good News This Week

Double 11 report released, down jacket brands ushered in a collective explosion

The 2024 "Double 11" has officially come to an end, and major platforms and top anchors will successively announce the "Double 11 Battle Report". In the early morning of the 12th, Tmall announced the transaction data during the "Double 11". The transaction volume of 589 brands during the whole period exceeded 100 million yuan, an increase of 46.5% year-on-year, setting a new historical record.

The apparel industry has seen strong growth. As of midnight on November 11, sales of 7,062 apparel brands doubled year-on-year, and sales of 66 brands exceeded RMB 100 million. During this year's Double 11, multiple rounds of cold air hit, and down jacket brands experienced a collective boom. Sales of Bosideng, Gaofan, YaYa, and Xuezhongfei exceeded RMB 100 million, and Bosideng exceeded RMB 1 billion.

The "outdoor economy" continues to heat up, with eight trend categories such as cycling apparel, sports jackets, badminton, sportswear, outdoor shoes and clothing growing by more than 50%. As of midnight on November 11, 34 brands in Tmall's sports and outdoor industry had sales exceeding 100 million yuan, and 2,288 brands such as Salomon, Onpao, HellyHansen, and Mammut doubled their sales.

In 2024, the number of JD.com's 11.11 shopping users increased by more than 20% year-on-year, the sales of more than 17,000 brands increased by more than 5 times year-on-year, and the sales of more than 30,000 small and medium-sized businesses increased by more than 2 times year-on-year. JD.com said that warm clothing was particularly popular this year, and the sales of down jackets, jackets, and thermal underwear doubled year-on-year.

According to JD.com's 11.11 full-cycle sales data, from 8 p.m. on October 14 to the evening of November 11, the sales of women's down jackets, men's down jackets, and furs doubled year-on-year; the sales of jackets and sports down jackets doubled year-on-year; the sales of children's down jackets doubled year-on-year. At the brand level, Balabala's sales doubled year-on-year, and YaYa's sales increased by more than 5 times year-on-year.

It is revealed that in the face of the price increase of down jackets, JD.com requires brand merchants to send samples for review to ensure product quality; JD.com also jointly opened special production lines with 20 brands including Heilan Home, Semir, YaYa, Xue Zhongfei, Yalu, etc. to provide products with more cost-effectiveness.

source | 新华财经、IT之家、财富在线

Received orders for millions of meters of autumn and winter fabrics! Textile company bosses are optimistic about the market in November

November has arrived in the blink of an eye. After the "golden September and silver October", the traditional off-season for textiles has arrived. Through research and visits, some companies' orders in November were slightly lower than those in September and October, but they were still able to maintain a continuous order status, and some companies even received an order for 1 million meters of polyester pongee.

Mr. Hu, who specializes in Chun Ya spinning, said: "We have been receiving good orders. Some time ago, we received an order for 1 million meters of Chun Ya spinning, which can be made in about a month and a half." At present, the operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains at 79.5%, which is generally maintained at a high level. It can be seen that weaving enterprises are still busy at this stage.

Hot-selling fabrics are also constantly changing, and the current stage is the time when autumn and winter fabrics are selling well. "Other autumn and winter fabrics have not improved much, but our 350T high F polyester pongee 50D*50D/144F has received 1 million meters, and the regular ones have been selling well. Generally speaking, it is still okay." Mr. Hu said.

Textile bosses are generally optimistic about the market situation in November. As the temperature continues to drop, the demand for autumn and winter fabrics will continue to increase. In addition, as the end of the year is approaching, many clothing manufacturers will prepare stocks in advance, and it is expected that there will be another wave of orders at the end of the month.

source | 绸都网

South Korea's fashion industry seeks to improve performance in the fourth quarter as weather turns cold

According to news from the Korean fashion industry, the performance of many companies in the third quarter declined. Samsung C&T's clothing division had sales of 433 billion won (about 2.2 billion yuan), a year-on-year decrease of 5%; operating profit was 21 billion won, a year-on-year decrease of 36.4%. Kolon Industries' FnC division had sales of 230.5 billion won, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and operating losses widened to 14.9 billion won.

Related companies said that the economic downturn has led to sluggish consumer sentiment, and abnormally high temperatures have slowed down the sales of autumn and winter coats, resulting in a decline in sales and operating profits. According to data from the National Statistical Office, the sales index of semi-durable clothing products has fallen for six consecutive quarters since the second quarter of last year (-1.7%), and fell to -4.7% in the third quarter of this year.

Nonetheless, the fashion apparel industry is looking to improve performance during the peak fourth-quarter season. With severe cold weather expected this winter, the industry is looking forward to sales of high-priced winter clothing. Since November, the weather has suddenly cooled down, and winter clothing sales of major fashion brands have shown significant growth. LF’s high-end outdoor brand Teton Bros’ cold-proof jacket sales increased by 330% in the two months since September.

Clothing transactions on major online platforms also showed an upward trend. According to data from the MUSINSA platform, transactions for down jackets and heavy coats increased by 94% from the 1st to the 7th compared with the previous week. W Concept reported a 15% year-on-year increase in winter clothing sales during the same period, with knitwear increasing by 30% and coats increasing by 11%.

source | AJU视界

Bad News This Week

Pinghu Garment City has been slow to wait for the peak of orders, and the down jacket market is "surviving the disaster"

According to previous years' practice, the peak season for down jacket orders at Pinghu China Garment City should have begun around the National Day, but this year, until November, merchants have not yet received old customers, let alone the peak of orders. Now that the beginning of winter has passed and a large-scale cold wave has not yet started, merchants in Pinghu Down City are worried, which also reflects that the down jacket market in 2024 is "surviving the disaster".

In sharp contrast to the market downturn, the price of raw material down is still high, which has brought great pressure to the downstream of the industrial chain. According to the data of Down Gold Network, the price of 95% white goose down on November 7th rose by 45.35% year-on-year to 1.3 million yuan per ton. This price even crushes rare metals such as tungsten. According to the data of the Mining Club, the price of tungsten was 365,000 yuan to 375,000 yuan per ton on November 7th.

Faced with weak market demand, down jacket merchants dare not raise prices easily, fearing that it will lead to unsalable goods. Therefore, although China Garment City is still fully rented, its operations director Chen Jie is worried that the market is not good, merchants will have difficulty doing business, and the clothing city will find it difficult to develop sustainably. He predicts that the supply and demand relationship of Pinghu down jacket industry chain will be more volatile this year.

"The high temperature is not the main reason (for the poor business). " Chen Jie said that the trend of slowing demand from downstream terminals is more obvious this year. He said that there is a flow of people in Down City now, but the per capita purchase volume has decreased significantly, "the purchase order volume and attitude of customers are conservative."

He further explained that, in fact, the market conditions in the down market were not good in the early part of last year, and merchants did not dare to prepare stocks. However, in November, a wave of cold air caused an explosion in the demand for down jackets, and the supply suddenly exceeded the demand. Merchants stepped up production to replenish stocks. However, when the products were produced, the downstream market demand decreased again, which eventually led to the sluggish sales of down jackets and the accumulation of a large amount of inventory.

Many business owners said that because of the large backlog of inventory last year, they did not have much stock this year. Moreover, the sharp increase in the price of down raw materials has put higher demands on the cash flow of stores, which has also made it impossible for many businesses to stock more. At present, many businesses have said that they can sell in small quantities, but according to previous practices, this will not be allowed until at least after New Year's Day or the end of the lunar year.

On one hand, small and medium-sized businesses are anxious to clear out their inventory and "slim down", while on the other hand, high-end and luxury down jackets are hot-selling. Judging from the sales on "Double 11" this year, high-end down jackets have a good appeal. Some industry insiders are worried that there will be a high probability of additional orders in the future, causing the down prices, which have already dropped slightly, to rise again.

At the same time, a few businesses have also enjoyed the "bonus" of the price increase of down. According to the down jacket refurbishment business, its recent order volume has soared. "This year's old down market is very hot because the price of down remains high." Refurbishing old down jackets and disassembling them into down quilts, etc., allow consumers to enjoy newly customized products with only a small amount of labor costs.

source | 每日经济新闻

The temperature rises sharply in the beginning of winter, and it is expected that the temperature will be higher this winter

We have entered the "Beginning of Winter" solar term. In general, this solar term is characterized by active cold air and the fastest drop in temperature in a year, but this year's Beginning of Winter is a little different, with the overall cold air being weak at the beginning.

According to data recently released by the World Meteorological Organization, temperature data for the first 10 months of 2024 show that this year will be the hottest year since records began in 1850. The just-passed October was the second hottest October in the world, second only to October 2023. Now it seems that November will continue this increasingly hot trend.

The scientific community has been warning that climate warming will bring great disasters to the world and human society. In October this year alone, there were several extreme climate events around the world, including heavy rainfall that caused severe floods in Spain, killing more than 200 people, and hurricanes "Helene" and "Milton" that landed in Florida and other places in the United States.

On November 11, the National Climate Center released the 2024/2025 winter climate trend forecast. It is expected that this winter (December 2024 to February 2025), the temperature in most parts of the country will be higher than the same period of previous years.

Among them, southern Liaoning, Tianjin, southern Hebei, southeastern Shanxi, Shandong, most of Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, central and eastern Hubei, northern Jiangxi, northern Fujian, western Sichuan, and most of Tibet are 1 to 2 degrees Celsius higher.

The temperature in northern Northeast China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, western South China, southeastern Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang was lower than the same period last year. Among them, the temperature in northwestern Heilongjiang and northeastern Inner Mongolia was 1 to 2 degrees Celsius lower.

source | 中国天气网、国家气候中心、新华社

New food traditions are taking shape, and the number of Polish goose farmers is recovering

According to the data from the Analysis and Strategy Department of KOWR (Polish National Agricultural Support Center), goose meat exports in the first eight months of 2024 exceeded the same period last year, reaching 3,000 tons, an increase of 6%. At the same time, the production of geese has increased.

Most of Poland's goose meat is exported to EU countries, and Germany has been the largest importer for many years. In 2023, Poland exported 9,400 tons of goose meat to Germany, with a total value of 68 million euros, accounting for 67% of total exports and 80% of revenue. Other importing countries include Hong Kong, France, Italy, the Czech Republic, Austria and the United Kingdom. In 2023, the total amount of goose meat exported by Poland was 13,900 tons.

Poland is Europe's leading producer of goose meat, goose feathers and goose down. Just over a decade ago, goose meat produced in Poland was mainly exported, with little domestic demand due to high prices and a lack of tradition in eating the poultry.

In 2012, Poland had a goose population of 1.31 million (adult geese weigh about 5 to 7 kg). In 2016, the production trough occurred, and the population fell to 860,000; in 2021 and 2022, there were further declines, to 890,000 and 980,000, respectively. In 2023, the goose population rebounded to 1.11 million.

The popularity of Polish goose meat is growing year by year. In recent years, campaigns to promote goose meat have changed the way Poles view this meat. Goose meat has become a popular delicacy, and despite its higher price, it is still considered a luxury. Geese are usually raised from spring to autumn, and are best eaten from October to November.

New food traditions are forming, such as eating goose on St. Martin's Day on November 11 or Poland's Independence Day, similar to the American tradition of eating turkey on Thanksgiving. The leading breed of goose meat production in Poland is the locally bred White Kowud goose, which was officially recognized in 2012, marking the rapid development of goose meat production in Poland.

source | 波兰农业网

News Situation

On "Double 11" in 2024, the transaction volume of down jacket brands on platforms such as Tmall and JD.com increased significantly. In particular, Bosideng's transaction volume exceeded 1 billion, showing that the market demand for high-end down jackets has increased significantly. This also shows that down jackets still occupy a dominant position in winter warm clothing.

The forecast of higher temperatures this winter may have a certain adverse impact on the down jacket industry. According to the trend of climate change, warm weather in some areas may cause consumers to postpone or reduce their purchasing demand. In addition, climate warming not only affects the down jacket market, but also brings challenges to the entire textile and apparel industry.

Pinghu down jacket market failed to usher in the peak of orders as in previous years. Merchants are worried about the high price of raw materials (down). Due to inventory pressure, they dare not over-stock, and demand is relatively weak. Although high-end down jackets performed well in the "Double 11" sales, the overall market is still in a downturn.

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