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Market Weekly Report | The temperature is high this winter, but there is a high possibility of a sharp drop in temperature in the short term; the price of raw wool has fallen, and the shortage of materials for enterprises is still imminent

2024-11-09 来源：金绒浏览量：930

Market Summary

In the 45th week of 2024 (11.4-11.10), the market was generally stable, with goose down falling slightly.

The 2024 US presidential election has come to an end, and former President Trump has been elected as the new US President. There have been rumors that Trump may impose additional tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on Chinese textile and clothing products, so the market predicts that retailers may compete to import more Chinese products to the United States before he takes office.

Currently, only the tariff exemption period for three items, namely "feather filling", "down filling" and "cotton pillows filled with duck down or goose down", has been extended to May 31, 2025.

Good News This Week

Exports in October far exceeded market expectations, and foreign trade in textiles and clothing grew steadily

The General Administration of Customs announced on November 7 that in the first 10 months, the total value of our country's import and export of goods was 36.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Among them, exports were 20.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%; imports were 15.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%. The trade surplus was 5.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.6%.

In October, the total value of imports and exports was RMB 3.70 trillion, up 4.6% year-on-year. Among them, exports were RMB 2.19 trillion, up 11.2%, far exceeding market expectations; imports were RMB 1.51 trillion, down 3.7%. The trade surplus was RMB 679.1 billion.

Lv Daliang, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that under the background of the concentrated efforts of a package of incremental policies, the growth rate of imports and exports in October accelerated by nearly 4 percentage points compared with September. In the first 10 months, our country's foreign trade grew steadily, the scale continued to expand, the structure continued to optimize, and the goal of quality improvement and quantity stability throughout the year is expected to be achieved.

In terms of regions, in the first 10 months of this year, ASEAN remained our country's largest trading partner. The total trade value between our country and ASEAN was 5.67 trillion yuan, of which exports to ASEAN were 3.36 trillion yuan, up 12.5%; imports from ASEAN were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 3.8%. At the same time, exports to developed economies such as the EU and the United States achieved positive growth.

Looking ahead, some analysts believe that considering the higher export base in the same period last year and the recent slowdown in external demand, the export growth rate in November may drop to single digits, but overall, our country's exports will continue to maintain positive growth in the fourth quarter.

In addition, from January to October, our country's total exports of textiles and clothing to the world amounted to 1,762.27 billion yuan, an increase of 3%, of which textile exports amounted to 829.52 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%, and clothing exports amounted to 932.75 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7%. In October, textile exports amounted to 87.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; clothing exports amounted to 92.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%.

source | 金绒采编自海关总署

Raw wool prices have fallen, but badminton prices remain high! Material shortages are imminent for manufacturers

"It is impossible for the price of badminton to rise unilaterally without control." In early September, a notice that "came out of nowhere" sparked a new round of discussion on the price of badminton and quickly spread on the Internet platform.

This notice comes from badminton manufacturing giant Asia Lion. As stated in the notice, 2024 is undoubtedly an extremely unusual year for the badminton industry. In this year, the core raw materials of badminton, raw wool and wool pieces, have experienced an unprecedented surge in prices, and the price of badminton "balls" has also continued to rise, breaking historical records.

Since October, although the price of raw wool has fallen and the crazy rising trend of badminton prices has been curbed due to the efforts of all parties, the price of badminton is still high and the market is in short supply.

"Before, the cost of raw materials went up, and the price of badminton had to rise accordingly. Now the price of raw wool has started to fall. The ups and downs of prices have no impact on our sales." Production manager Hu Bing said frankly, "At present, our orders are still in short supply. The biggest problem is the shortage of raw materials on the production side."

At present, the main sources of raw materials for the company are Northeast China, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Taiwan, etc. These raw wool and wool pieces from all over the country are first distributed on a large scale to Lu'an City, Anhui Province, and then purchased by the company in a centralized manner.

Originally, the supply and demand of raw materials for pellets were relatively balanced, but in recent years, with the continuous recovery of pork supply and the decline in prices, residents' consumption demand for ducks and geese has declined, and the output of ducks and geese has continued to decline, which has directly led to a corresponding reduction in raw materials for pelleting.

At present, the shortage of badminton production materials has become an urgent problem. The decline in wool production capacity caused by the gradually colder weather has made the problem of raw material supply even worse.

Faced with this problem, Asia Lion and Jinping County where the company is located have taken action. Starting from the two directions of planning and establishing the wool processing industry and vigorously promoting the development of the goose breeding industry, they jointly extended to the upstream industrial chain and actively explored the completion of the entire chain of badminton production.

source | 农民日报

Branded down jackets returned to the top of the list of warmth-keeping brands, and the sales of down jackets priced above RMB 1,000 on Tmall.com increased by 30% year-on-year

On November 6, Taobao Tmall and Moji Weather jointly released the "Tmall Double 11 Young People's Cooling and Keeping Warm Illustrated Book". The popularity of down skirts, the localization of fur consumption in small towns, the advancement of autumn johns, and Birkenstocks taking over from Crocs have become the four major cooling consumption trends this winter.

This winter, down jackets have returned to the center of winter clothing. After young people have "favored" military coats, large flowered jackets, and assault jackets, they finally returned to the embrace of "white moonlight" down jackets. Moreover, this generation of young people prefers branded down jackets.

Data shows that during the Tmall Double 11 period, sales of down jackets priced above 1,000 yuan increased by more than 30% year-on-year. The light luxury down brand Gaofan saw explosive sales, making its debut on the Tmall apparel sales list, ranking 8th; Bosideng's extreme cold goose down jackets priced at over 2,000 yuan sold more than 20,000 pieces.

This generation of young people love to study "wearing down jackets inside". Down liners are affordable and can be worn with coats, jackets, jackets, etc., winning young people over with their cost-effectiveness. Tmall Double 11 data shows that searches for down liners increased by more than 104% year-on-year. During this year's Double 11, professional down brands such as YaYa, Xue Zhong Fei, and Ya Lu all increased their investment in the "down liners" market.

In addition to down jackets, young people love to wear "down skirts" this winter. Down skirts can not only resist the cold, but also be fashionable, becoming the best "cooling outfit" for girls. Searching for "down skirt" on social media will bring up more than 2,000 notes on how to wear it.

During Tmall's Double 11 shopping festival, the average daily search volume for down skirts increased by 372%. Fashion apparel brands such as Jiaoxia, dzzit, CHUU, and unifree launched new down skirts during Double 11 shopping festival, and sales increased rapidly.

source | 21世纪经济报道

With large orders from major customers, Huaying Agriculture achieved substantial growth in down production and sales in the first three quarters

On November 6, Huaying Agriculture held a performance briefing. The record of investor relations activities showed that this year, despite the high price of down, the company's down business production and sales in the first three quarters achieved a significant year-on-year growth, mainly due to the continuous increase in the popularity of downstream down products and the increase in orders from major customers.

In response to the question "What percentage of the total revenue did the down segment account for by the end of the third quarter?" Huaying Agriculture stated that the down segment is one of the company's main business segments, and the third quarter is the peak season for down sales. The increase in down business revenue in the third quarter has driven a substantial increase in the company's overall operating income.

Regarding the question of "our subsidiary Huarui Clothing has entered the down products sector, please tell me how its business is going so far?" Huaying Agriculture said that the establishment of its subsidiary Huarui Clothing is conducive to optimizing the layout of the down industry and promoting the extension of the industrial chain to the downstream product business, but given that the subsidiary was established only a short time ago, the company is focusing on controlling product quality and actively exploring the market to achieve steady growth in the subsidiary's performance.

Regarding the question of "the company has been actively developing the American market in its semi-annual report, how is the progress?" Huaying Agriculture said that the company has been actively developing the North American market and focusing on increasing its market share in food and down. In the Canadian market, the company exports a series of duck pre-prepared dishes and down products; in the US market, in addition to exporting down products to it, the company is currently actively applying for registration for the export of cooked duck meat, and the progress is relatively smooth.

Regarding the question of "What is the prediction for down prices in the next two years?" Huaying Agriculture stated that the current down prices are still running at a high level. The prices of down are generally affected by many factors such as downstream demand, the number of ducks slaughtered, weather, and cotton prices. The company will pay close attention to the fluctuations in down prices.

Huaying Agriculture's 2024 third quarter report shows that the company's main operating income was 3.757 billion yuan, up 41.41% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent was 32.7996 million yuan, up 104.86% year-on-year. In the third quarter of 2024, the company's main operating income for the quarter was 1.579 billion yuan, up 35.54% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent for the quarter was 14.8537 million yuan, up 480.32% year-on-year.

source | 华英农业

Bad News This Week

The temperature is expected to be higher this winter, but there is a high possibility of a strong cooling process.

On October 29, the China Meteorological Administration held a regular press conference for November 2024, at which the national weather and climate characteristics for October and the climate trend forecast for November were released.

It is reported that in October, the temperature in most parts of our country was close to normal or slightly higher than the same period in previous years, which was the fifth highest in the same period in history since 1961. However, the temperature fluctuated greatly, and there were 5 cold air processes affecting our country during the month, of which 3 reached the level of cold waves, which was 2.3 times more than the same period in previous years. Among them, the intensity of the nationwide cold wave from September 29 to October 3 was the second strongest in the same period (early October) since 1951.

It is expected that in November, the temperature in most parts of our country will be higher than the same period of previous years. According to the China Climate Center, there are four major cold air processes expected to affect our country in November, with the time and intensity of occurrence being: early ten-day period (strong), late mid-ten-day (strong), mid-ten-day (weak), and late ten-day (moderate).

It was also learned from the regular press conference that it is expected that this winter (December 2024 to February 2025), the temperature in most parts of the country will be higher than the same period in normal years, but the temperature will fluctuate significantly during the season, and a strong process cooling will occur. The possibility is high.

Among them, in winter, the central and northern parts of Northeast China, most of Inner Mongolia, the central and eastern parts of Northwest China, and northern Xinjiang may experience periodic strong cooling and heavy snowfall; in winter, the southeastern part of Southwest China, the southwestern part of Central China, and the western part of South China may experience periodic low temperatures and rain, snow and freezing weather.

As early as September this year, the World Meteorological Organization predicted that La Nina would return in the fall. However, since this year's La Nina may be a weaker event, it remains to be seen to what extent it will affect the temperature this winter. According to statistics, after the emergence of La Nina, the probability of a cold winter in our country is higher, but La Nina cannot be completely equated with a cold winter.

source | 国家气候中心、央视财经

Analysis of white-feathered duck market in late October - increase in duckling supply

In October, the demand side was not able to make up for the shortage of orders, and the recovery costs of slaughtering enterprises were high, with many of them suffering deep losses. As the weather gradually gets colder, it will take some time for the seasonal recovery of market demand to occur. Based on this, the price pressure of egg seedlings on the breeding poultry side has emerged recently, and the refrigerated side has started to suppress prices again in the last few days of the month.

According to information, the current price of breeding eggs is around 2 yuan, and the transaction performance is normal. The cost of hatching is 3.1 yuan, and the enthusiasm for hatching is high, indicating that the subsequent seedling volume will be high. As the white stripe splitting manufacturers strongly support the price, the duckling price is lowered and released. In October, the duckling price slowly declined. The national average price of ducklings was 5.03 yuan/bird, down 0.70 yuan/bird from the average price of the previous month.

From the 40th to the 44th week of this year, the daily average output of ducklings began to increase gradually. From the 41st week, the weekly average value increased by 300,000. Compared with the same period last year, there was no large-scale elimination of breeding ducks. It is expected that the output of ducklings will continue to show a steady growth trend in November. The current total output of nearly 12 million ducklings is beneficial to the cost control of slaughter enterprises, and it will increase the subsequent supply and demand initiative to the demand side.

This month, the national live duck market fluctuated, and the supply of ducks remained basically flat. The market in the main live poultry production areas in the south was affected by the poor demand after the National Day, and the transaction volume declined rapidly. For duck cutting and processing plants, the bulk orders continued to be small, and the sales orders were also in a light stage, and the demand for raw materials remained low. Overall, the product side still faced great pressure in November.

source | 佳合食品集团、Mysteel

Yu'an District welcomes the white goose down harvest season, and down companies mainly focus on domestic sales

In the golden month of October, the farmers of the "Anhui White Goose" in Yu'an District, Lu'an City, are welcoming the harvest. After the geese are slaughtered, the goose meat is processed into delicacies, and the down is processed and bagged, waiting to be taken to the down factory by trucks.

Yu'an District is the main production area of "Anhui White Goose", and the local goose feathers are in great demand. After the farmers harvest the down, local enterprises will "consume it locally", and even if there is no surplus to sell to other places. The relevant person in charge said: "Our farmers can produce 3-4 tons of goose feathers every year. This year, the income from selling goose feathers has more than doubled compared to 2023. Last year, the income from the goose feathers of a goose was about 40 yuan, and this year it can reach 85 yuan. "

According to data from the Lu'an Municipal Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the first quarter of this year, the number of white geese raised in Lu'an City was 9.75 million and the number of white geese sold was 3.16 million, up 13.95% and 10.17% year-on-year respectively. It is estimated that by 2027, the number of Wanxi white geese raised in Yu'an District will be close to 8 million.

In recent years, domestic down jacket brands have been selling well, and Lu'an's down companies have also experienced this. "Now we are mainly selling domestically, and our partners are all listed companies." Zhang Wenjun, executive vice general manager of Ocean Feather, said, "This year, our sales performance in the Chinese domestic market is expected to double."

Wang Kui, president of Xingbao Down, also said: "Currently, the company focuses on domestic sales in China. The demand for down is like a curve, with ups and downs, but the overall trend is upward, and sometimes there is a shortage of supply."

As the consumption boom arrives, the price of down has also attracted much attention. "Overall, the price of down in 2024 will be higher than in 2023." Wang Kui said, "Now the living standards of the public are constantly improving, and the requirements for the quality of down jackets are also constantly increasing. Down jackets with 95% or 90% down content are definitely warmer than those with 70%, but the price of down jackets with a high down content will definitely be relatively higher."

source | 中新经纬

News Situation

As domestic consumers' demand for branded and high-quality down jackets increases, down jackets continue to consolidate their position in the winter market. During Tmall's Double 11 shopping festival, the sales volume of down jackets priced above RMB 1,000 increased significantly, indicating a clear trend of branding in the down industry. This also provides impetus for the industry's high-end development and innovation.

The weather in November has a critical impact on the consumption of down jackets. After the recent strong cold front passes, the temperature in many parts of our country will rise again in the next few days. At the same time, climate forecasts show that the temperature this winter will be higher, but fortunately the temperature drop will fluctuate greatly. The possibility of a strong temperature drop provides favorable conditions for the sales of down products.

The increase in the supply of ducklings will gradually translate into an increase in the number of meat ducks, which will eventually lead to an increase in the supply of duck down, providing more raw materials for the down industry. However, if the demand is lower than expected, it may also lead to downward price fluctuations. However, overall, it can play a positive role in the long-term stability of down prices.

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