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Market Weekly Report | Seasonal demand rises, down product sales peak; rising raw material costs may affect the profit performance of the industry chain

2024-11-02 来源：金绒浏览量：728

Market Summary

In the 44th week of 2024 (10.28-11.3), the market was generally stable, with goose down falling slightly.

In October, the new year's avian influenza epidemic cycle began. On the 31st, a chicken farm in Ota City, Shimane Prefecture, Japan, confirmed the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus and culled about 400,000 chickens. This was the fourth poultry infection case confirmed in Japan since mid-month. In addition to the short time interval, these four cases were almost all over Japan. At the same time, commercial poultry in Europe and North America were also frequently infected with avian influenza.

As the outbreak of avian influenza abroad continues, the international supply of down will become insufficient, and for smaller companies, rising procurement costs will directly weaken their market competitiveness, thereby deepening wait-and-see sentiment or leading to an increase in demand for alternative materials.

Good News This Week

The number of live ducks sold in November may show a trend of low at the beginning and high at the end

According to Mysteel agricultural product sample enterprise statistics, as of week 43 of this year, the daily output of white-feathered commercial ducklings averaged 10.6-10.8 million. The current breeding duck production capacity has gradually recovered, and the supply of commercial ducklings has begun to increase. It is expected that the daily average will be around 1,100 before the end of October, and the daily average will be 11.3-11.5 million in mid-to-early November.

As of October 25, the price of ducklings in the main production areas was 4.10 yuan per duck, up 150.90% year-on-year, much higher than the same period last year. The main supporting factors are: first, the heavy rainfall in the early stage caused diseases to the breeding ducks in the main production areas, and the high temperature and humidity in the third quarter caused a decline in production capacity, which delayed the recovery of the output of ducklings; second, the product side was profitable in the third quarter, and the breeding poultry companies had smooth plans.

After entering October, the disadvantages of high seedling prices gradually emerged. The inventory of all categories of products is 80-90% high, small white strips continue to suffer deep losses, with a loss of 200-300 yuan/ton, and large white strips are gradually approaching the break-even line.

In terms of distribution, the current market inventory level is medium, the effect of stimulating shipments is general, and large orders are still relatively small; in terms of processing plants, bulk orders continue to be small, and sales orders from cooked food companies are also in a light stage, and the demand for raw materials remains low; the losses of refrigerated companies in October still showed no signs of narrowing, and based on this, the price of seedlings may continue to be suppressed.

In the next four weeks, the number of live ducks slaughtered (Steel Union sample statistics) will be 44.08-46.67 million per week, a decrease of 3.95% from the previous week. Among them, the number of ducks slaughtered in weeks 44-45 is at a low point, and the number of ducks slaughtered will decrease slightly. If calculated based on the average breeding cycle of 36-38 days, the number of live ducks slaughtered in November may show a trend of low at the beginning and high at the end.

However, considering that there was no obvious positive boost to the consumption of meat duck by-products in November, the sales pressure and inventory pressure at the slaughtering end are unlikely to improve significantly.

source | 我的钢铁网

Warmth products are in great demand, and popular products are out of stock

Recently, the sales of warm clothing, quilts and other warm products have seen a small peak, and some products were once sold out. Visits to many shopping malls in Beijing found that with the arrival of the cold wave, many stores put down jackets and coats in prominent positions, attracting many consumers to buy.

Ruan Wenjun, manager of Xizhimen store of a clothing brand in Beijing, said: "40% of winter clothes have been updated, and down jackets account for 20%. From last Friday to last Sunday, the temperature in Beijing dropped, and the sales of down jackets and coats increased by 20% compared with the same period last year."

It is understood that due to the faster temperature drop this year than in previous years, coupled with the "Double Eleven" offline activities, some popular warming products were once sold out. Li Zhifen, a staff member of a Beijing lifestyle brand Xizhimen store, said: "The mother-and-child quilt has been restocked for the third time. It is not the coldest time yet. It is estimated that after "Double Eleven", it will basically be out of stock again."

Platform data shows that since October, the consumption of thermal clothing has been strong. Among them, the sales of down jackets and snow boots increased by more than 50% year-on-year, the sales of thermal pants increased by more than 70% year-on-year, and the sales of thermal vests increased by more than 150% year-on-year.

source | 央视财经

In September, the added value of leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry rebounded

In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points faster than the previous month (the growth rate of added value is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors). From a month-on-month perspective, in September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.59% over the previous month. From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year.

According to Tang Weiwei, director of the Industrial Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in September, the growth rate of industrial production above designated size and the PMI production index rebounded, and the expectations of industrial enterprises stabilized and their confidence increased, indicating that the industrial economy still has a solid foundation for continued stable operation.

Among the three major categories, the manufacturing industry grew by 5.2% in September (4.3% in the previous month). In terms of industries, the added value of 36 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth. Among the sub-industries under the manufacturing industry, "leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry" grew by 6.0% in September, and the added value from January to September increased by 5.3%.

Judging from the changes in monthly growth, the industry's growth rate rebounded in September, which may be due to seasonal factors, fluctuations in raw material costs, changes in the international trade environment, etc. At present, the cumulative growth of added value is 5.3%, indicating that the industry has maintained a stable growth trend and the overall development trend of the industry is still positive.

source | 金绒采编自国家统计局

Bad News This Week

Winter is not here yet, but you will have to pay more for down jackets this year

Last winter, many consumers felt that down jackets that cost thousands of yuan were "out of their reach". Some even turned to buying military coats with better value for money. This winter has not yet arrived, but some consumers have already discovered that down jackets have gone up in price again.

"I bought a white goose down jacket for my husband last year, which cost 926 yuan after the discount. This year I wanted to buy one for my father, but after taking into account various discount activities, it still cost 1,167 yuan in the end." Ms. Chen, a citizen, said that the price increase of more than 1/4 was surprising, but when she consulted the online store's customer service, she was told that it was because the raw materials had increased in price.

"The new national standard for down jackets was implemented two years ago, and this year goose down and duck down prices have continued to rise. The price increase of down jackets should be a universal phenomenon." Ms. Yang, who has represented many women's clothing brands, believes that under cost pressure, it will be more difficult for affordable down jacket brands, because they want to adjust prices but dare not adjust them too high. Mid-to-high-end down jacket brands already have a high premium, but after the price adjustment, they are also afraid that the purchase threshold will be raised.

Shaoxing Jinnuo Clothing Co., Ltd., which has been engaged in the production of down jackets for many years, has been busy since the summer. Recently, the production workshop has been operating at full capacity. About half of the orders come from domestic manufacturers, and about half are sent to foreign manufacturers.

"This year's shipment volume is about the same as last year. We expect to produce about 250,000 pieces, and we will be busy until December." Qiu Juwei, the company's head, said that most of the products produced by the factory are goose down jackets, and the listing price will definitely exceed 1,000 yuan. Some foreign brands even retail for tens of thousands of yuan. He admitted that due to the large fluctuations in raw material prices, the cost of each down jacket will increase by about 15%-30%.

Industry insiders said that due to the high cost of down this year, brands are more cautious in purchasing and placing orders, and many choose to wait and see, or even place orders in small batches. However, today's down jacket sales are a business that depends on the weather, and the final sales situation still depends on whether the weather cooperates with the sales season.

source | 越牛新闻

Total profit of "leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry" declined in September

On October 27, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to September 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 5228.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. Affected by factors such as the high base of the same period last year, in September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 27.1% year-on-year. In addition, the growth rate of corporate costs was faster than the growth rate of revenue, resulting in a decline in corporate gross profit.

In terms of industries, from January to September, among the 41 major industrial sectors, only 22 industries saw year-on-year profit growth. It is worth noting that the profit growth rate of the "textile, clothing and apparel industry" was negative (-2.6%, the previous value was -1.8%), and the decline has increased month by month.

Among them, the "leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry" achieved a total operating income of 618.33 billion yuan from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; operating costs of 535.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; total profit of 32.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Although the year-on-year growth rate has dropped sharply since May, the overall profit of the industry has continued to grow.

Researchers said that although the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size have declined, the resilience of new industrial momentum has emerged, and as industrial enterprises' expectations stabilize and their confidence increases, the efficiency of industrial enterprises is expected to recover.

source | 金绒整理自国家统计局

The processing of Wanxi white goose down has just begun

In the golden autumn, the harvest is coming. The Wanxi white goose farmers in Yu'an District, Lu'an City, usher in the busiest and happiest season of the year. After nearly 10 months of hard work, the Wanxi white geese are ready to be released from the cage. The bags of pure white down processed in the factory indicate a good harvest for the year.

"The price of goose down has been rising, and the price of goose meat is also very good. For us, this year is a real bumper year." Jiang Weijun, head of Anhui Zhanyu Ecological Agriculture Development Co., Ltd., a leading enterprise in the conservation, breeding and farming of Wanxi white geese in Yu'an District, said that this year the goose feathers and goose down of one white goose can be sold for 210 yuan.

At Huawei Down Products Co., Ltd. in Guzhen Town, the processing of Wanxi white goose down has already begun. The company's production manager said that the processing of Wanxi white goose down has just started this year, but the price of down has far exceeded that of the past. The price of high-quality goose down has reached 1.2 million yuan per ton, and the price of the highest-quality Wanxi white goose down is more than 1.6 million yuan per ton.

This year, more than 4.66 million white geese were raised in Wanxi, and the number of breeding geese reached 330,000 at the end of the year. It is estimated that by 2027, the number of Wanxi white geese raised in the region will be close to 8 million, and the comprehensive output value of the region's goose industry and down feather industry will reach more than 7 billion yuan.

source | 安徽日报

News Situation

As the temperature drops rapidly, consumers' demand for down products is rapidly increasing. Especially driven by the "Double Eleven" promotion, the sales of warm products are expected to increase further. This concentrated outbreak of demand not only helps to promote the sales of down industry products, but also brings higher profit margins to domestic and foreign down brands.

In September, the industrial added value of "feather and feather products industry" increased year-on-year. This upward trend may be due to the increase in seasonal demand and the steady growth of market demand, which also boosted the market confidence of down raw materials. However, the slowdown in industry profit growth reflects the pressure of rising raw material costs, which may affect the profit performance of the down industry chain.

The processing season for white goose down in western Anhui has just begun. It is expected that the supply capacity of the goose down market will gradually increase in the future, but the current high price of down raw materials still has a direct impact on the cost and price of down jackets. As we enter the fourth quarter, down manufacturers will plan to prepare for the next year.

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