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Market Weekly Report | The US is nearing the end of its inventory replenishment, and the export of down and its products is sluggish; the price of raw materials has risen too rapidly, and down jacket manufacturers have chosen to wait and see

2024-10-26 来源：金绒浏览量：504

Market Summary

In the 43rd week of 2024 (10.21-10.27), the overall market price fell, among which the price of grey goose down fell the most.

Customs data show that in September this year, our country's exports of down and feather products fell into a comprehensive downturn. Under the complex background of Sino-US trade relations, US companies have circumvented the US government's tariff policy on China by importing Chinese goods in advance and increasing the scale, but this strategy is now coming to an end. At the same time, some market voices believe that if Trump wins the November election, the fear of tariffs may lead to a surge in imports again.

Good News This Week

Heilongjiang down industry is making all-out efforts to sprint to the fourth quarter

As winter is approaching, the demand for down products is increasing. Heilongjiang is stepping up its efforts to promote the layout of the down industry, attracting related companies to invest in building factories, speeding up production, and making a full sprint in the fourth quarter.

At the construction site of the Qiqihar Down Town project, the largest down and down products production base in Northeast China, all construction has been completed and has met the occupancy standards. The four intelligent production lines of the first company to move in have also been installed and are about to be debugged.

Zhang Xianghai, general manager of Qiqihar Hedong Industrial New Area Investment and Operation Service Co., Ltd., said: "Brands such as Bosideng and YaYa have reached cooperation intentions with us. With the entry of more and more down and down product processing companies, our entire Qiqihar City and even the three northeastern provinces will be transformed from a 'big market' for down consumption to a 'big factory' for down products."

At Bosideng (Harbin) Intelligent Manufacturing Production Base, the project is preparing for construction. The world's leading automation and intelligent manufacturing equipment has been introduced here, and the new generation of information technologies such as industrial Internet and artificial intelligence will be used to produce down clothing. Production will start soon. The person in charge, Lv Xiaojing, said that the equipment has basically been debugged.

Last year, the popularity of ice and snow tourism in Longjiang made the local down jacket brand "E Lingling" stand out. In preparation for the upcoming peak sales season, workers in the down jacket production workshop of E Lingling Garment Co., Ltd. are now working hard to meet orders.

Gao Xinming, sales manager of Heilongjiang Elingling Garment Co., Ltd.: "The workers work in two shifts and go all out to process products. Based on the original orders, we will prepare 30,000 to 50,000 down jackets for the market." This year, in order to meet market demand, the company has introduced four new digital down jacket production lines, which will be put into use at the end of October.

source | 龙视新闻联播

Raw material prices are rising too fast, down jacket manufacturers choose to wait and see

"This year may be a cold winter because I can't afford down jackets," 26-year-old Wei Yu joked. Last year, he bought a thin down vest for 210 yuan, but when he wanted to buy it again this year, the price had risen to 269 yuan. The increase of nearly a quarter still made Wei Yu feel pressured.

Liu Hongwei had the same confusion. He bought a down jacket on a shopping app at the beginning of September for 369 yuan, ready to buy it when the weather got colder. However, when the temperature dropped as expected during the National Day holiday, he found that the price of the down jacket had soared to more than 500 yuan.

For consumers, these price changes may come as a surprise, but for down jacket industry owner Xiang Zhi, this is not news. He had already foreseen the trend of down jackets becoming more expensive earlier this year, "and they will become more and more expensive in the future."

According to him, in recent years, the pressure of "price increase" has been looming over every Pinghu down jacket manufacturer. "The supply speed of duck and goose feathers used in down jackets cannot keep up with the market demand, so the price of raw materials has risen sharply now."

Due to the rapid price increase, the raw materials once had real-time quotes like gold and the A-share market. At the end of September, Xiang Zhi ordered a batch of down at a price of 550,000 yuan per ton. By the afternoon, the 550,000 yuan was no longer available. Less than a week later, the price reached 600,000 yuan. "After a little hesitation, the price reached 620,000 yuan."

These costs will eventually be passed on to consumers, causing the price of down jackets to continue to rise, which is why down jackets are so expensive this year. "Consumer demand for down jackets is declining," said fashion designer Qiqi. Many down jacket manufacturers choose to wait and see, or sell last year's inventory instead. He is also caught in a huge "unemployment panic."

source | 虎嗅APP（文中人物均为化名）

Orders are better than in September, fabrics are in short supply

September and October are the traditional peak seasons in the second half of the textile market. Since September, market orders have gradually improved, and many fabrics have become hot-selling, with orders bursting and queues. This year is no exception. Through research, it was found that most textile bosses said that the order situation in October was better than that in September.

The person in charge of a company that mainly deals in nylon fabrics said: "Our company has always had a lot of orders, but we simply don't have enough time to complete them. Now the orders have been scheduled until December, and the order volume is millions of meters. Some orders are directly rejected because we don't have enough time to complete them."

The current society's demand for textiles has not diminished. Regardless of their size, textile companies are still enthusiastic about production. Some are producing orders, while others are preparing stocks. Most textile companies' looms are fully operational all year round.

Textile bosses are confident about the market in the future. The temperature dropped significantly in October this year. Not only is the temperature change limited to the change, the overall market this year is better than last year. The large number of autumn and winter fabrics has deepened everyone's expectations for the market. With the further promotion of the Christmas season and Double Eleven, the placement of some orders will be accelerated. The textile boss said that it is not an exaggeration to receive orders until the end of the year.

source | 绸都网

Bad News This Week

Down clothing import and export statistics (September) - starting to go downhill

In September 2024, our country exported about 4.917 million down jackets, a decrease of 13% from August this year; the export value was about 1.112 billion yuan, a decrease of 15% from August this year.

2024年9月羽绒服出口表

商品名称	数量 (万件)	人民币 (亿元)	数量同比去年	金额同比去年
棉制男羽绒服	6.9	0.15	-90%	-85%
化纤制男羽绒服	185.4	4.33	-15%	16%
棉制女羽绒服	2.4	0.04	-95%	-94%
化纤制女羽绒服	297.0	6.59	-10%	-4%

近14月男装羽绒服出口情况

近14月女装羽绒服出口情况

The data shows that the export of down jackets is in the peak season and has been growing for 5 consecutive months, but now there are obvious signs of a downward trend. The export volume in September this year has dropped by 26% year-on-year (June was down 39%, July was down 25%, and August was down 15%), and it is the month with the lowest volume in all Septembers in the past 10 years.

In addition, affected by China's ban on the overseas circulation of cotton, the export share of cotton down jackets has been significantly lower every month this year than in previous years, and the proportion in September this year hit a new low again.

In terms of imports, in September 2024, about 1.85 million pieces of down jackets were imported, an increase of 71% from the previous month; the import value was about 1.278 billion yuan, an increase of 66% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Statistics on down and feather exports from major provinces and cities in September - Export volume drops sharply

According to Chinese customs data, the export volume of down and feathers decreased significantly in September 2024, and the export value also dropped sharply. Among them, the export volume of down and feathers in Anhui Province ranked first in the country that month.

In that month, Anhui Province exported about 951 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 16% year-on-year; the export value was about 83 million yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 25% year-on-year.

In September 2024, Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country in terms of the export volume of down and feathers that month.

In that month, Zhejiang Province exported about 922 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 25% year-on-year; the export value was about 93 million yuan, an increase of 4% year-on-year.

In September 2024, Jiangsu Province exported about 213 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 63%; the export value was about 39 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123%. The export volume of down and feathers in the province has declined for six consecutive months, but the cumulative export value from January to September this year increased by 31% year-on-year.

In September 2024, Guangdong Province exported about 225 tons of down and feathers, an increase of 82% over the previous year; the export value was about 29 million yuan, an increase of 109% over the previous year. Although there have been many twists and turns, the province's down and feather exports have shown a booming trend since this year.

In September 2024, Shanghai exported about 258 kilograms of down and feathers, a decrease of 99% year-on-year; the export value was about 110,000 yuan, a decrease of 99% year-on-year.

After hitting a 41-month high in May, the city's down and feather exports have been sluggish from June to September. Judging from the situation in recent years, Shanghai's down and feather exports are concentrated in the first half of the year, and tend to increase in September and November.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

September "Down Bedding" Export Statistics - Demand Turns Down

duvet：

From January to September 2024, our country exported about 11,459 tons (about 4.69 million pieces) of down quilts, a year-on-year increase of 4%; the export value was about 1.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%.

In September 2024, our country exported about 1,725 tons (about 640,000 pieces) of down quilts, a decrease of 2% year-on-year; the export value was about 169 million yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year.

In September 2024, the United States continued to be our country's largest trading partner for "down quilt" exports, accounting for 40% of the total exports this month (previous value 39%), a slight increase. Among them, the export volume was about 688 tons (about 220,000 pieces), a decrease of 3% year-on-year; the export value was about 53 million yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year.

The United Kingdom was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 10% of total exports; followed by Germany with 7%, Japan and South Korea with 6.9% and 3.8% respectively.

Other down bedding：

From January to September 2024, our country exported about 29,235 tons of "other down bedding", a year-on-year increase of 5%; the export value was about 1.066 billion yuan, a decrease of 15% from last year.

In September 2024, our country exported about 3,789 tons of "other down bedding", a decrease of 1% year-on-year; the export value was about 128 million yuan, a decrease of 30% compared with last year.

In September 2024, the United States is still the largest trading partner of our country's "other down bedding" exports, accounting for 53% of the total exports this month (previous value 58%), and the proportion has turned to decline. Among them, the export volume is about 2014 tons, an increase of 11% over last year; the export value is about 0.60 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% over last year.

The United Kingdom was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 10% of total exports; followed by Australia and Germany, each accounting for 6%, Japan accounting for 3%, and Canada and South Korea accounting for 2% each.

Down bedding (quilt + other bedding)

From January to September 2024, ourcountry exported approximately 40,694 tons of "down bedding", a year-on-year increase of 4%; the export value was approximately RMB 2.159 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18%.

Year-on-year, the export volume of "down bedding" from January to September this year is still in positive growth; month-on-month, there is a trend of falling demand in September, indicating uncertainty in the industry. However, looking back over the past few years, September seems to be a month prone to export decline, which may be related to the National Day holiday.

source | 金绒整理自海关数据

Down jacket prices are falling instead of rising? Manufacturers: They are more expensive than last year

The "precipitous drop in temperature" and the "Double 11" discounts have made the down jacket market "hot" recently. This month alone, more than 10,000 people paid for 5 products in the Tmall YaYa official flagship store. Many consumers have also found that major merchants seem to be "rushing to cut prices" both online and offline, and the price of a down jacket is sometimes hundreds of yuan cheaper than the original price.

For example, on the homepage of the online Tmall YaYa official flagship store, you can see the promotional slogan "Up to 20% off for all items". In addition, the store's product purchase interface also has words such as "Discount 150 yuan for purchases over 309 yuan with coupons". After adding the platform discounts, the final price of many styles of products can be 100 to 200 yuan cheaper than the original price.

In offline shopping malls, many brands of down jackets are also reducing their prices. In Beijing's Xidan shopping district, the price tag of a new down jacket launched this year at a Uniqlo store was adjusted from 899 yuan to 799 yuan. Combined with the "online order, offline self-pickup" activity currently being carried out in the store, the actual price can be reduced by another 100 yuan.

However, in the long run, even with the support of "Double 11", the general selling price of down jackets this year has not dropped significantly compared with 2023. Pushing the timeline to the past few months, consumers' discussions on down jacket prices on social media platforms are still mainly about "increases".

"Compared with 2023, the price of down jacket raw materials has risen by more than one-third this year. Taking the new national standard 90 white duck down as an example, in the same period of time, the price in 2023 was 400,000 yuan per ton, and this year it has risen to 550,000 yuan per ton." said Mr. Zhu, the manager of the down jacket brand "Wu Yi Yue".

With soaring costs, the overall price trend of down jackets this year is still on the rise. "We, who make and sell down jackets here, are selling them at a higher price than last year." Mr. Zhu believes that some consumers feel that down jackets are relatively cheap recently, which may be related to the platform's preferential mechanism during a specific period of time, and has nothing to do with the actual payment received by the merchants.

source | 中国商报

News Situation

Heilongjiang Province actively promotes the development of the down industry. Various new projects not only represent the expansion of the down industry in the region, but also show the improvement of the down production layout in Northeast China. With the growth of ice and snow tourism demand, local brands will further open up market awareness and are expected to drive the growth of down production and sales in the three northeastern provinces.

This year, as the price of down raw materials continues to rise, the cost pressure on down jacket manufacturers has increased sharply, and they have to make adjustments to the marketing of down jackets. In addition, some companies choose to wait and see or sell inventory due to the rising raw material costs, which to some extent alleviates the pressure caused by the shortage of raw materials.

The recent "precipitous drop in temperature" and the Double 11 promotion have stimulated consumers' desire to buy down jackets. However, although the price of down jackets has dropped during the Double 11 period, the actual price does not reflect the pressure of production costs. In the long run, the price increase trend is still significant. It is expected that the overall price of down jackets in winter will continue to rise.

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