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Market Weekly Report | The first cold wave warning has come, and the demand for warm products has increased significantly; all costs have risen sharply, and the down jacket OEM industry is planning to increase prices

2024-10-20 来源：金绒浏览量：747

Market Summary

In the 42nd week of 2024 (10.14-10.20), the overall market price fell, but white duck down was relatively stable.

In recent days, affected by strong cold air, most areas in the north will experience strong winds and cooling weather. Experts pointed out that this cold air has a wide impact range and moves southward quickly. At present, many provinces and cities have issued the first cold wave warning in the second half of this year. In late October, as typhoons become active again in the western Pacific, they may also pull strong cold air directly to the coast of southern China, triggering a series of weather changes.

Good News This Week

Exports in the first three quarters hit a record high

The General Administration of Customs announced on October 14 that in the first three quarters, our country's total import and export value of goods trade was 32.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with exports of 18.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%; imports of 13.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1%; and a trade surplus of 4.90 trillion yuan.

In September, the total value of imports and exports was RMB 3.75 trillion, up 0.7% year-on-year. Among them, exports were RMB 2.17 trillion, up 1.6%; imports were RMB 1.58 trillion, down 0.5%. The trade surplus was RMB 582.62 billion.

Lu Daliang, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that looking at the first three quarters as a whole, exports maintained growth for the sixth consecutive month in September. The cumulative export scale in the first three quarters reached 18.62 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period in history, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than the average growth rate in the same period in the past 10 years.

Lu Daliang also said that our country's overall export share of the global market has been steadily increasing. Among the major export products, from furniture and home appliances to ships and containers, the share of the global market has increased to varying degrees.our country's exports remain resilient.

Recently, the General Administration of Customs conducted a survey on more than 800 major export companies across the country, and the results showed that 69% of the companies reported that exports remained the same or increased in the fourth quarter. Lv Daliang believes that, overall, the General Administration of Customs is still confident about exports in the fourth quarter.

In addition, from January to September, our country's total exports of textiles and clothing to the world amounted to 1,581.65 billion yuan, of which textile exports amounted to 741.71 billion yuan, up 4.8%, and clothing exports amounted to 839.94 billion yuan, flat year-on-year. In September, textile exports amounted to 80.18 billion yuan and clothing exports amounted to 96.48 billion yuan.

source | 金绒采编自海关总署

Strong cold air is coming again, and the temperature in the north will hit a new low

In the golden autumn of October, many areas have not yet lost the residual heat of summer, but a huge temperature drop is about to take place in most parts of our country. According to the forecast of supercomputers, two cold air masses will move south in turn in the next few days, bringing about drastic temperature fluctuations.

At present, the first wave of cold air has first affected the northeast region, bringing severe temperature drops and rain and snow, but what we really need to be vigilant about is the second wave of cold air. It will be like nature's "porter", sending the long-accumulated cold air in Siberia to central and eastern our country.

According to the medium-term weather forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, from the 18th to the 19th, affected by strong cold air, most areas north of the Yangtze River will experience strong winds and cooling weather, with temperatures dropping by 6 to 10 degrees Celsius, and in some areas of the northeast, by more than 12 degrees Celsius. From the 18th to the 19th, temperatures in large areas of the north will hit a new low after the beginning of autumn.

At the same time, the warm and humid air flow seemed to have not received the "exit" notice, and it staged a "comeback" again in mid-October. This will form an unprecedented collision of cold and warm air, which will lead to rare large-scale rainstorms, heavy rainstorms and severe convective weather in central and eastern our country.

source | 中国气象爱好者

Strong cold front is predicted, and thicker and cold-resistant down jackets will be popular in South Korea this winter

South Korea is expected to see a cold snap below -18 degrees this winter, so local outdoor brands are scrambling to launch functional down jackets. The continued high temperatures last month led to weak sales of new autumn products, and brands seem to be formulating strategies to upgrade winter outerwear, which accounts for more than half of annual sales.

It is reported that the ultra-high-priced warm clothing launched as a trial last year received a good response in South Korea, and this year outdoor brands in South Korea and abroad are seriously expanding this market.

Canada Goose, a high-priced thermal brand introduced to Korea by Lotte GFR, launched a new short thermal clothing this winter with a price range of 1.25 million to 1.75 million won, which ranked first in sales. Canada Goose's flagship product Expedition Parka was also launched at an extremely high price of 2.6 million won, attracting much attention.

Erno, an Italian luxury winter clothing brand, has launched a new winter product for female customers, the "Ladies' Waisted Down Jacket" priced at nearly 2 million won. As a super-high-priced product, its women's "Detachable Hood Down Jacket" is priced at 5.39 million won. According to importer Shinsegae International, some of Erno's new winter products were sold out due to their popularity, and sales from the end of August to September increased by 19.2% year-on-year.

Therefore, products that are thicker and more cold-resistant than existing warm clothing, or waist-cinching or jacket styles suitable for business occasions are expected to become popular in South Korea this winter. Although the fashion market has stagnated due to high prices, demand for "smart suits" such as ultra-high-end functional clothing is expected to increase further.

Compared with luxury brands, domestic outdoor brands, which are relatively cheap, have also attracted attention this year by launching high-quality products worth more than 1 million won. K2 recently released a limited edition product called "Shin Air Absolute" priced at 1.8 million won. The product uses patented "down compression" technology, which is both lightweight and has excellent thermal insulation performance. It is mainly favored by women in their 30s and 40s who have spending power.

source | 每日经济

The “warming economy” is heating up

After entering autumn, clothing stores in many shopping malls in Lhasa have taken thin clothing off the shelves, and various down jackets, cotton coats, hats, gloves, etc. have begun to occupy the "C position" on the shelves.

"Business in our store has been pretty good recently. Down jackets and cotton coats are selling well, especially this year's new down jackets, which are lightweight and warm and are the most popular." said Ms. Zhou, the owner of a clothing store. "The temperature in Lhasa has dropped. It is expected that more and more people will buy winter clothes in the next few days. Our store has also launched a promotion. The more customers buy, the better the deal."

On October 14, e-commerce platforms such as Tmall and JD.com officially launched the 2024 "Double Eleven" promotional pre-sale activities. On Tmall, a short down jacket priced at 358 yuan was purchased by more than 1,000 people within 24 hours, and more than 2,000 people added it to their shopping carts... As temperatures drop in various places, the "warmth economy" is continuing to heat up.

"The temperature has dropped recently, so I bought two down jackets online in advance. Not only did I participate in the 'Double Eleven' full-reduction event, but many stores also provided free shipping to remote areas, so it was still a good deal to buy them." said Ms. Gong, a citizen of Lhasa.

source | 快搜西藏

Bad News This Week

The development of La Niña faces "stunted development" and may not have a decisive impact on cold and warm winters

On October 10, local time, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that there is a 60% chance that La Niña will occur between September and November 2024, and a 60% chance that it will last from January to March 2025.

In comparison, NOAA's forecast last month gave a 71% chance of La Niña occurring between September and November, so the odds have dropped significantly this month. Forecasters believe the most likely scenario is a weak La Niña with a maximum of between -0.9 and -0.5°C.

During September, ENSO remained neutral, with sea surface temperatures near average across much of the equatorial Pacific. ENSO neutral refers to a period when neither El Nino nor La Nina is present. However, in recent weeks, an area of below-average waters has developed in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, a sign that La Nina may be brewing.

In the historical record that began in 1950, only four La Niña events have developed late in the year. Two of those were in September-November and two were in October-December, and all turned out to be weak events or borderline between weak and moderate. ENSO events are strongest in the winter, so there is less time for this La Niña to develop between now and the end of winter.

The intensity of ENSO events is measured by the extent to which their sea surface temperatures deviate from the normal. This is because changes in sea surface temperature can alter the location of the strongest updrafts, thereby changing global atmospheric circulation.

Typically, stronger events will more consistently change atmospheric circulation and, in turn, have more consistent effects on temperature, rainfall, and other patterns, while weaker events have the potential to allow other weather or climate phenomena to become the main disruptive factors. However, even a weak La Niña can affect the seasonal outlook because it can still have a minor impact on the global atmosphere.

source | 金绒采编自NOAA、ENSO博客

Costs have risen sharply, and garment OEM factories are planning to increase their order quotations for next year

Garment OEM factories whose main production bases are in Southeast Asia have recently been planning to raise their order quotations.

In recent years, OEM factories have faced difficulties with a sharp increase in local labor costs, as well as increased shipping costs caused by political factors and rising costs of various accessories. Major garment factories, including Guangyue, have recently been considering coordinating and communicating with customers to evaluate raising quotations for 2025 orders.

Industry insiders pointed out that Vietnam, where most garment OEM factories have production bases, has adjusted the basic wage every year in recent years, with a 6% increase this year alone. In addition, garment factories have recently been actively expanding their new production base in Indonesia, and with companies from China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan rushing in, labor costs and factory construction costs have also increased recently.

As for war factors such as the Red Sea crisis, they not only trouble the shipping arrangements of garment factories, but the rising freight rates also cause costs to accumulate; it is understood that the transportation costs of garment factories have risen by more than 10% since last year.

Another variable factor that caused the garment industry to raise its prices was the US election. As there were rumors that the US would raise tariffs after the election, garment industry players pointed out that the prices must also take this factor into account.

Guangyue, a major down jacket OEM manufacturer, said that with the increase in labor and transportation costs, it is indeed evaluating raising its quotations for next year. In addition, the costs of some accessories and materials have also increased, so there should be room for improvement in next year's order quotations and average unit prices.

source | 工商时报

News Situation

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, our country's export volume in the first three quarters of 2024 hit a record high for the same period in history. This growth trend shows that despite certain uncertainties in the global economy, our country has maintained strong export resilience. However, the monthly export of textiles and clothing is still in negative growth.

With the arrival of cold fronts, the temperature in northern China has dropped significantly, and the market demand for thermal insulation products will increase significantly. In the "Double Eleven" pre-sale activities of e-commerce platforms, down jackets and other thermal insulation products have received a large number of orders, which provides sufficient market demand support for the down industry.

Although the intensity of La Nina is forecast to weaken, even a weak La Nina may have some impact on the winter climate. La Nina usually brings cold weather, which directly promotes the demand for warmth in the northern market.

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