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Market Weekly Report | Global demand is picking up, but exports of down and its products are mixed; strong cold air assists, and long holiday travel heats up autumn and winter clothing consumption

2024-09-29 来源：金绒浏览量：719

Market Summary

The market conditions in the 39th week of 2024 (9.23-9.29) were generally stable.

The National Day travel boom has not yet arrived, but autumn and winter clothing has become popular first. From the data, the consumption boom driven by the long holiday gradually heated up after late September. At present, many brands have launched the 2024 winter down jacket marketing campaign and have officially announced new spokespersons. At the same time, more domestic and foreign brands have entered the down jacket market this year, making the competition increasingly fierce.

In recent months, the foreign trade of down and its products has remained sluggish, so the domestic demand market may dominate the down market trend this autumn and winter.

Good News This Week

Export statistics of down bedding in August: Demand soars

Down Quilt:

From January to August 2024, my country exported about 9,734 tons (4.05 million pieces) of down quilts, a year-on-year increase of 5%; the export value was about 924 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.

In August 2024, my country exported about 1,820 tons (690,000 pieces) of down quilts, an increase of 11% over last year; the export value was about 171 million yuan, a decrease of 0.5% over last year.

In August 2024, the United States continued to be my country's largest trading partner for "down quilt" exports, accounting for 39% of the total exports this month (previous value 29%), a significant increase in the proportion. Among them, the export volume was about 716 tons (220,000 pieces), an increase of 14% over the same period last year; the export value was about 58 million yuan, a decrease of 9% over the same period last year.

Germany was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 11% of total exports; followed by the United Kingdom with 7%, Japan and the Netherlands with 5% and 3% respectively.

Other down bedding:

From January to August 2024, my country exported about 25,445 tons of "other down bedding", a year-on-year increase of 6%; the export value was about 938 million yuan, a decrease of 13% from last year.

In August 2024, my country exported about 4,087 tons of "other down bedding", a year-on-year increase of 22%; the export value was about 145 million yuan, a decrease of 14% from last year.

In August 2024, the United States is still the largest trading partner for my country's "other down bedding" exports, accounting for 58% of the total exports this month (previous value 56%), and the proportion has been rising for months. Among them, the export volume is about 2,381 tons, an increase of 38% over last year; the export value is about 73 million yuan, an increase of 26% over last year.

The United Kingdom was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 7% of total exports; followed by Germany with 6%, Australia with 4%, Canada with 3%, Japan with 2% and South Korea with 1%.

Down bedding (quilt + other bedding)

From January to August 2024, my country exported approximately 35,179 tons of "down bedding", a year-on-year increase of 5%; the export value was approximately RMB 1.862 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.

Year-on-year, the export volume of down bedding has been growing from January to August this year; month-on-month, it has been growing in a step-by-step manner in the past seven months, showing signs of recovery in the industry. In August this year, down quilts showed an extremely strong recovery in demand.

source | 金绒整理自海关数据

"Strong cold air" is coming, and the "heart booster" for the textile market is here

If one word is used to describe the textile market after September, the most appropriate one should be "cautious" - customers are cautious in placing orders, traders are cautious in stocking up, and weaving companies are also cautious in purchasing raw materials. The caution of upstream and downstream has also, to a certain extent, broken the cycle of advance stocking up in previous years.

Despite this, the rigid demand in the peak season still drives the market. Currently, the load of weaving factories has risen to a high point of 78.3%. In terms of grey cloth inventory, the market transaction is still good, the liquidity of grey cloth is good, and the grey cloth inventory in Shengze area has dropped to 33.9 days.

In terms of orders, the average number of orders for weaving enterprises is about 15 days. Autumn and winter orders are gradually being placed, but they are mostly small and scattered orders, and large orders are relatively limited. Overall, the current textile market is ready to go, and orders are being placed one after another, but there is still a lack of an opportunity for a full launch.

The drop in temperature may be an opportunity for this. A similar situation just happened last November. With the arrival of multiple cold fronts, the sales of down jackets in various places have recovered rapidly. As one of the production bases of down jacket fabrics, Shengze has even sold out some fabrics, and the sales of down jacket fabrics have been crazy.

According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, from September 27 to October 1, affected by strong cold air, the temperature in most areas will drop by 4-8℃, and the temperature in some northern areas will drop by 10-12℃, and locally by more than 14℃. This cold air process will affect a wide range, with a large temperature drop, and some northern areas will have significant rain and snow.

As an industry that relies on the weather, the prosperity of the textile industry is closely related to the temperature. As time goes by and the weather turns cooler, the demand of end consumers is gradually fed back to the upstream of the industrial chain. More and more demands are gradually determined, and sales promote production, gradually improving market confidence.

source | 绸都网、中央气象台

Global clothing demand will fully recover, and sewing equipment exports will pick up

According to China's foreign trade data in August, sewing machine exports have emerged as a new force. Since the beginning of this year, the demand for footwear and clothing consumption and replenishment in Europe and the United States has been gradually released, orders from major footwear and clothing exporting countries such as Southeast Asia have stopped falling and rebounded, and emerging markets such as Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America continue to maintain vitality, driving the textile and clothing equipment market upward.

From a regional perspective, exports to the three major markets of Asia, Latin America, and North America, as well as the Oceania market, continued to decline, but exports to the African and European markets rebounded significantly. According to the China Sewing Machinery Association, the downstream industry will see a surge in footwear and clothing orders starting from the second quarter of this year, and global clothing demand will fully recover, which is expected to boost demand for sewing equipment in the second half of this year.

China's domestic sales of sewing equipment began to slow down in the fourth quarter of 2021, and have experienced negative growth for two consecutive years in 2022 and 2023, and the overall demand in 2023 is close to the bottom of 2016. However, judging from the past development pattern, 2024 is expected to enter a recovery cycle, and it is expected that China's domestic sales of sewing equipment will show a single-digit or even double-digit medium-speed growth in 2024.

From the perspective of domestic downstream demand, after the end of the epidemic, the pace of recovery in industries such as footwear, clothing, and luggage varies. The demand for sewing equipment in some areas has shown a steady increase. For example, the rise of Hanfu national tide tourism has brought about a recovery in computer embroidery machines. In extreme climates, the demand for down jackets and cotton jackets has led to inventory digestion.

source | 工商时报

The top 500 Asian brands in 2024 are announced, and down jacket brands are most popular among Chinese consumers

The "Asian Brand Conference" hosted by World Brand Lab was held in Hong Kong on September 25. The 2024 "Top 500 Asian Brands" annual report was released at the conference, and a total of super brands from 20 countries and regions were selected.

This is the 19th time that the World Brand Lab has evaluated the influence of Asian brands. A total of 219 brands from China (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) were selected, accounting for 43.80% of the top 500 Asian brands, ranking first in Asia. Among them, there are 178 brands from mainland China, an increase of 4 from last year.

The judging criteria for the "Top 500 Asian Brands" is the brand's influence in Asia. Basic indicators include market share, brand loyalty and Asian leadership.

The survey results show that the consumer loyalty of citizens in different countries varies greatly. Japanese consumers still have the highest national brand loyalty, up to 84%, while mainland Chinese consumers continue to be more enthusiastic about local brands, increasing from 36% more than ten years ago to 70%, ranking third. Among them, Bosideng has become one of the top ten brands most loved by mainland Chinese consumers in 2024.

There are 10 Chinese textile and clothing brands on the list, namely Hengli, Shenghong, Anta, Ordos, Bosideng, Jihua, Maoren, Yalu, Li Ning and Zulijian. In addition to the down jacket brand Bosideng, Anta, Maoren, Yalu and Li Ning have all bet on the down jacket track this winter.

The World Brand Lab analysis shows that compared with the United States, the technology brands of Asian countries are weaker; compared with Europe, the luxury brands of Asian countries are weaker.

source | 金绒采编自世界品牌实验室

Bad News This Week

Down clothing import and export statistics (August) - slow growth

In August 2024, my country exported about 5.622 million down jackets, a 7% increase from July this year; the export value was about 1.31 billion yuan, a 5% increase from July this year.

Down jacket export table in August 2024

商品名称	数量 (万件)	人民币 (亿元)	数量同比去年	金额同比去年
棉制男羽绒服	8.8	0.19	-88%	-82%
化纤制男羽绒服	230.8	5.21	1%	6%
棉制女羽绒服	3.8	0.09	-92%	-87%
化纤制女羽绒服	318.8	7.62	4%	7%

Export situation of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export situation of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

The data shows that the export of down jackets has come out of the off-season and has continued to grow for 5 months, but the growth is extremely slow. The export volume in August this year has dropped by 15% year-on-year (June was down 39% year-on-year, and July was down 25% year-on-year), and it is the month with the lowest volume in all Augusts in the past 10 years.

In addition, affected by China's ban on the overseas circulation of cotton, the export share of cotton down jackets has been significantly lower every month since the beginning of this year than in previous years, and the proportion in August this year reached a low point again.

In terms of imports, in August 2024, about 1.085 million down jackets were imported, an increase of 65% from the previous month; the import value was about RMB 770 million, an increase of 43% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Statistics on down and feather exports in major provinces and cities in August 2024 - a sharp drop in overall export value

According to Chinese customs data, the number of provinces and cities engaged in the export of down and feathers increased significantly in August 2024. Among them, Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country in terms of both the export volume and value of down and feathers that month.

In that month, Zhejiang Province exported about 1,363 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 16%; the export value was about 132 million yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 17%.

In August 2024, Anhui Province's export volume and export value of down and feathers ranked second in the country that month.

In that month, Anhui Province exported about 1,279 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 28%; the export value was about 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%.

In August 2024, Jiangsu Province exported about 215 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 31% year-on-year; the export value was about 33 million yuan, an increase of 29% year-on-year. The export volume of down and feathers in the province has declined for five consecutive months, but the cumulative export value from January to August this year increased by 27% year-on-year.

In August 2024, Guangdong Province exported about 194 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 4% year-on-year; the export value was about 41 million yuan, an increase of 72% year-on-year. Although there have been many twists and turns, the province's down and feather exports have shown a booming trend since this year.

In August 2024, Shanghai exported about 19 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 21% year-on-year; the export value was about 40 million yuan, a decrease of 30% year-on-year.

After hitting a 41-month high in May, the city's down and feather exports continued to decline from June to August. Judging from the situation in recent years, Shanghai's down and feather export peak season is concentrated in the first half of the year, and there will be a significant increase in September and November.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

News Situation

Affected by seasonal factors, the domestic demand for down products will increase significantly, especially down jackets, duvets, etc. The export demand in the international market is likely to remain stable. Although the export volume has slightly rebounded, the exchange pressure brought by the appreciation of the RMB has limited the growth of the export amount.

Driven by seasonal demand, the sales of down products in the domestic market have picked up recently. The current strong cold air is an important factor stimulating the market. As the temperature drops, the demand for down products from end consumers is directly fed back to the production end, driving the activeness of the surface and auxiliary materials market.

Judging from the export data in August, the export volume of down feathers increased year-on-year in both major provinces, indicating that Chinese down raw materials are still competitive in the international market, but the decline in down export value shows that the high price of down has led to a decrease in demand from some buyers.

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