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Market Weekly | Companies call on suppliers to reduce costs, but it is difficult to achieve; Foreign trade can no longer afford the high price of down, and orders are shifted to other materials

2024-09-15 来源：金绒浏览量：841

Market Summary

The market conditions in the 37th week of 2024 (9.9-9.15) were generally stable.

The latest forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization on September 11 shows that there is a 55% chance that the current neutral state (neither El Nino nor La Nina) will turn into La Nina from September to November this year.The latest forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization on September 11 shows that there is a 55% chance that the current neutral state (neither El Nino nor La Nina) will turn into La Nina from September to November this year.

However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reported that the most likely scenario is a weak La Nina. A weak La Nina will not have much impact on global atmospheric circulation patterns, which means that the probability of a typical La Nina effect on winter climate is low.

Good News This Week

Manufacturers say it is difficult to stop the soaring price of "feathers", and goose and duck feathers may continue to "expand" this year

Recently, a notice issued by Asia Lion, a well-known badminton manufacturer, has sparked widespread heated discussion. In the notice, Asia Lion called on its suppliers to reduce the price of raw wool and wool pieces, and announced that from September 1, the price of raw materials for each piece of badminton will be reduced by two to three points based on the current purchase price.

This year, the sharp rise in the prices of duck feathers, goose feathers and other major badminton materials has become the main reason for the high prices of badminton. Some large badminton manufacturers have even been forced to suspend production of overseas orders because they cannot afford the high costs, and small and medium-sized manufacturers are facing the dilemma of "no money to get feathers".

As a leading company in the badminton industry, Asia Lion took the lead in launching an action to curb the rise in ball prices, calling on suppliers to reduce costs and curb the disorderly rise in material prices. However, industry insiders said that although many badminton manufacturers support the call for price cuts, it is difficult for prices to fall in the short term due to the tight supply and demand of feathers.

According to industry observations, the main reason for the increase in the price of duck and goose feathers is the squeeze on both the supply and demand sides. On the one hand, the big year of events has driven national fitness, and the demand for badminton has surged. On the other hand, due to the tight supply of materials, the price remains high. A badminton manufacturer revealed: "The price of goose feathers has risen from 0.35 yuan per piece last year to 0.7 yuan per piece today, and it is not expected to fall back this year."

"Simply calling for price limits from upstream companies is not the solution." Experts analyzed that the way Asia Lion hopes to reduce the price of wool is only a temporary solution, not a fundamental solution. "In terms of the amount of wool used, the badminton market is relatively small, so its bargaining power is relatively weak."

source | 每日经济新闻

Exports in August exceeded expectations, and the United States once again became our country's top export market

The General Administration of Customs announced on September 10 that in the first eight months, our country's total import and export value of goods trade was 28.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, in terms of RMB (hereinafter referred to as the same). Among them, exports were 16.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.9%; imports were 12.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7%; and the trade surplus was 4.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%.

In August, the total value of imports and exports was RMB 3.75 trillion, up 4.8% year-on-year. Among them, exports were RMB 2.20 trillion, up 8.4%; imports were RMB 1.55 trillion, up 0.0%. The trade surplus was RMB 649.34 billion.

Lv Daliang, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that foreign-invested enterprises are important market players in our country and play an important role in promoting high-quality development of foreign trade. In the first eight months, the number of foreign-invested enterprises with import and export performance in our country increased. The monthly import and export value has increased year-on-year for five consecutive months, and China remains a fertile ground for foreign investment and business.

From the perspective of major export regions, in August, our country's top three export markets were the United States, the European Union, and ASEAN. The United States has become our country's number one export market for the first time since November 2023. This may be because European and American traders are worried about factors such as unstable policy prospects and geopolitical conflicts pushing up shipping costs, and they are stocking up in advance before the traditional consumption peak season.

Although exports in August exceeded expectations, analysts believe that our country's export growth rate may slow down this year, given the slowdown in external demand and the strong base of the same period last year. However, another view is that the global economy is still expected to maintain expansion, and with the active response of our country's foreign trade enterprises, the continuous optimization of foreign trade structure, and the intensified implementation of foreign trade relief policies, exports are expected to remain stable.

In addition, from January to August, our country's total exports of textiles and clothing to the world amounted to 1,405.99 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%, of which textile exports amounted to 661.6 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%, and clothing exports amounted to 744.39 billion yuan, an increase of 1%. In August, textile exports amounted to 87.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; clothing exports amounted to 112.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%.

source | 金绒采编自海关总署、界面新闻

Down jacket OEM industry is recovering, with impressive revenue in August

Quang Viet, a major down jacket OEM manufacturer, announced on the 9th that its consolidated revenue for August 2024 was NT$2.347 billion (New Taiwan dollars, the same below). Shipments continued to be strong, with revenue increasing by 5.6% from the previous month and 7.2% from the same period last year, the second highest monthly revenue in August in history.

Wu Chaobi, chairman of Guangyue, said that customer inventory adjustments had been completed in the first half of the year. Since the second half of the year, Guangyue's shipments have been booming, operations have continued to heat up, and the fourth quarter was not a slow season. It is estimated that the positive growth trend will be maintained, and the future prospects of operations are promising.

Guangyue is currently planning orders for 2025. Brand customer orders have clearly recovered, and demand for orders from major brand customers is strong. In addition to grasping existing customer orders and product projects, Guangyue will also add two new brand customer orders next year, and is also negotiating with other brand customers. In addition, Guangyue is also continuously evaluating the expansion of production bases, and the operation map continues to expand, with a positive outlook for the future.

KWONG LUNG, another down jacket OEM, achieved revenue of NT$715 million in August, up 4% year-on-year, supported by steady growth in both its garment and home textile businesses. The company's cumulative revenue in the first eight months was NT$5.581 billion, which still showed a year-on-year decline, but the decline has narrowed from 4.4% in the first half of the year to 2.4%.

Kwong Lung's garment business turned to positive growth in the third quarter, and the current order fulfillment rate has exceeded 95%, of which the order fulfillment rate for major customers has reached 97%. In terms of new customer development, the six new customer goals set this year have all been achieved, and the order contribution of new customers last year and this year is in line with expectations, accounting for about 10% of the total annual orders.

The home textiles division also performed well, especially as its main Japanese customer is promoting a global store expansion plan, which has led to a significant recovery in Kwong Lung's demand for goods. In the first eight months of 2024, Kwong Lung's shipments to this customer increased by more than 10% compared with the same period last year. With the arrival of the peak season for winter product shipments, the revenue of the home textile business is expected to grow further.

source | 中时新闻网

Analysis of white-feathered duck market in early September

According to statistics, the average daily output of seedlings this week is around 9.5 million, which is significantly less than last month. Affected by the high temperature and humidity in the early stage, the production capacity of breeding ducks has declined, and the egg production rate and fertilization rate are poor. At the same time, due to the influence of cold storage to avoid the National Day, seedling companies have adopted staggered production to reduce the output of seedlings.

It is expected that the number of hatching ducks will continue to decline next week. In the medium and long term, it is expected that as the weather turns cooler, the supply of new breeder ducks will be added, and the production capacity of old breeder ducks will be restored, and the number of hatching ducks will slowly rise as early as late September.

The price of this series of ducklings has risen sharply, not because of speculation but because of rigid demand. The price of ducklings and eggs has risen together, which has created a price increase atmosphere in the industry. The price of small-sized white-striped ducks in Shandong production area is relatively high, and shipments have driven growth. The profits of large-sized white-striped ducks in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and Anhui are relatively stable at present, which gives slaughterhouses more confidence to raise prices.

The double holidays boosted consumption, and the wholesale market generally extended holidays this year. The downstream comprehensive orders radiated by the wholesale market began to improve. The prices of by-products such as heads, necks, palms, gizzards, and clavicles were relatively strong this week and showed signs of rebound. It is expected that the main and by-products of ducks will fluctuate and strengthen in the short term next week.

source | 佳合食品集团

Bad News This Week

Foreign trade can no longer bear the high price of down, only the domestic market is relatively optimistic

"The price of down jackets will increase this year! We should stock up while it's still cheap." In the Sijiqing Clothing Street, the store "Elaishiya" that specializes in down jackets has experienced a "small peak" in sales. The owner Wei Feng said that many customers have placed orders and the most popular single model in the store has sold more than 10,000 pieces. "When the winter peak season comes, the price of down jackets will be even higher."

Jiaxing Down Jacket Factory integrates down production, processing and marketing. Wang Qingfu, the factory manager, said that this year it is expected to produce 450,000 down jackets, a 10% increase over last year, but the estimated profit is only the same as last year.

"We use locally produced white goose down, and the price has increased dramatically this year." Wang Qingfu said that last year 90% goose down was sold for 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per ton, and this year the price is 1.15 million to 1.2 million yuan per ton. Not only that, the fabric of down jackets has also increased by 15%. Overall, the cost of a down jacket will increase by about 100 yuan.

Not only down jackets, but other down products have also not "escaped" this wave of price increases. Asjia Home Textile Co., Ltd. mainly produces customized down quilts and finished down quilts. Yang Shaoqin, the company's Hangzhou area manager, said that compared with last year, the cost of a finished down winter quilt with a filling weight of 1kg has increased by more than 800 yuan.

Fu Miaokui, president of the Zhejiang Down Industry Association, said that the price of down has been rising sharply since last year, mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand. If supply and demand are not alleviated, it may take a long time to return to the original price level.

"The increase in down prices this year is indeed a bit exaggerated, but at present, there is not enough momentum for down prices to continue to rise," said Mao Fengwei, executive vice general manager of Zhejiang Samsung Down Co., Ltd. "Foreign trade has reached a price that foreign companies cannot afford, and most orders cannot be continued. Some companies no longer focus on down and turn to chemical fibers or other functional materials. Currently, only the domestic market demand is relatively optimistic."

source | 每日商报

News Situation

Down prices have risen sharply since last year, mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand, especially the increase in demand for winter clothing and home textile products, which has further pushed up prices. This sharp price increase not only affects the prices of end products such as down jackets, but also puts many companies in the industry under great cost pressure.

As down prices continue to rise, foreign trade companies are facing more and more pressure. Due to the high price sensitivity of overseas markets, many orders have been cancelled because they cannot afford the high down prices. Some companies have even stopped accepting down orders. This trend reflects that the international market's tolerance for rising down prices has reached its limit.

Judging from the current situation, although the price of down continues to be high, the momentum for its continued sharp rise is limited. In addition, some foreign trade companies have begun to turn to other materials, which may reduce their dependence on down, which will help ease the pressure of further price increases.my

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