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Market Weekly Report | As the clothing market enters autumn, down jacket wholesale is experiencing a peak in orders; export growth is slow, and overseas demand for down and its products has changed

2024-08-25 来源：金绒浏览量：864

Market Summary

In the 34th week of 2024 (August 19-25), the overall market was stable, with goose down falling slightly.

Recently, the sales of white duck down have accelerated and the price has rebounded, while goose down is still unsalable and the demand for grey goose down is relatively weak. Since the beginning of this year, the export of down raw materials and down clothing has continued to be sluggish, and the data has dropped significantly compared with previous years, which has affected the demand for down in August to a certain extent. At the same time, the import volume of down is still soaring.

The continuous high temperature and extreme weather have led to a significant drop in the fertilization rate and egg production rate of breeding ducks, which has objectively led to another reduction in production capacity in the upstream, and also means that the supply of raw duck feathers may be tight in the future. However, the just-passed Zhongyuan Festival ushered in a peak in duck consumption, and the recent supply of raw feathers may increase.

As the market's expectations for the Fed's rate cuts increased, the US dollar index fell significantly, and the RMB appreciated explosively. The performance of the Asia-Pacific currency market was unexpectedly strong! Later, as Fed Chairman Powell hinted at the global central bank annual meeting that interest rates would be cut in September, the US dollar index fell sharply again. The commodity market was boosted by this, and oil prices also rose simultaneously.

Good News This Week

China's No. 1 Clothing Street is "coming to autumn"! Order volume surges

The temperature is over 40℃, but this street in Hangzhou has already entered autumn. Recently, all the major clothing wholesale markets in Sijiqing Clothing Street have started to sell new autumn clothes. Business owner Chen Sujuan said that her store started selling new autumn clothes on July 28. "At the beginning, we had about 1,000 orders per day, and today we have sold more than 1,900 pieces."

"We are the manufacturer and source, and we are basically two seasons ahead of consumers. We need to give downstream customers enough time to distribute the goods. By the time everyone is wearing autumn clothes, our winter clothes will be almost ready," said Chen Sujuan.

Chen Sujuan's family has a total of more than a dozen employees, who are busy packing from 7:30 in the morning to 5:30 in the afternoon every day. "We are really too busy. These days we basically have to work overtime until after 8 o'clock in the evening." Chen Sujuan said that the market is closed, but many businesses still have their lights on, and the security guards will accompany the last few businesses to close before they turn off the lights.

In the clothing market, many stalls have large and small bags stacked in front of their doors, which are put away and then left. Marketing manager Cao Zhengxiao said that there are 400 business operators in the market, and the current rate of new autumn clothing has reached 100%. "There was already a small order fair in mid-July. The whole market will basically be so busy next week that it will be unstoppable."

Across the street, on the second floor of the China Textile Center Garment City, there is an original brand women's clothing stall. Nan Ting, the store manager born after 1995, and her staff are busy sorting out the goods. The stall will launch new products on July 30, and the daily delivery volume is also stable at more than 1,000 pieces. "This year's autumn clothing has received a particularly good response, and the (order) growth rate has reached about 80%."

"Recently, our models have to wear more than 200 sets of clothes every day. They are very busy! Of course, what we want most is sisters who can wear clothes and take photos and have sales ability." Xiao Liu, a post-95s manager of another original women's clothing stall, said that recently the number of autumn clothing orders has reached a maximum of 3,000 pieces a day.

source | 杭州发布

The hot weather has not yet ended, and some shops in Hangzhou have begun to "winter"

Although midsummer is not over yet, the Sijiqing clothing district in Hangzhou is already in the thick of autumn, and all major clothing wholesale markets have already started selling new fall clothes.

On the morning of August 20, accompanied by the dynamic beat of music, one after another autumn clothing models made a beautiful appearance. The "Wangtian Sijiqing Boutique Women's Clothing Market 2024 Autumn and Winter New Models Launch Fashion Show" presented a visual feast of fashion and autumn charm, further igniting the autumn clothing craze in the neighborhood.

Those who acted quickly put all the autumn clothes on the shelves as early as July 20. "It's too hot this year. The north is a little cooler than here, so now all the orders are going to the north. The average daily sales are about 2,000 pieces, and the maximum number of orders in a day is 3,000 pieces," said store manager Li Dan.

Some stores are more proactive and have even started to "prepare for the winter". Wei Feng, the owner of "Elashiya", a store that specializes in down jackets, said that the peak period for orders is July and August every year, while September and October become the "off-season".

"We mainly do second-batch business, which is basically two seasons earlier than consumers. We also have to give customers enough time to distribute the goods, so the orders come in particularly early." Wei Feng said that his family currently has ten models, and all models have sold a total of 50,000 to 60,000 pieces, among which the most popular single model can sell tens of thousands of pieces.

"Then the current customer orders are cheaper because the cost is a little lower now. The cost of down will be very high during the peak season," Wei Feng added.

source | 杭州日报

Ducklings break through the "4 yuan" mark, and the upward momentum still exists

After nearly four months of continuous bargaining, the price of white-feathered broiler duck chicks finally reached the "4 yuan" mark again on August 19! With the positive news from all sides pushing up the price of egg chicks, the price of chicks reached a relatively high range, and the upward trend of chick prices still exists.

Considering the breeding cycle, the ducks that were replenished from August 23 to 28 will be released close to the National Day holiday, so the cold storage plants may have some evasion, which may temporarily affect the companies' seedling release plans. The average release volume is expected to be around 10 million, with a small drop.

From the perspective of farmers, due to seasonal factors, the survival rate of ducklings decreased, the difficulty of breeding doubled, and there was a mentality of avoiding reducing the number of ducklings; after entering August, the enthusiasm for restocking has improved significantly, the difficulty of subsequent restocking will decrease, and the restocking sentiment on the breeding side may increase again.

In the medium term, the upward trend of seedling prices still exists. The supply side is affected by the high temperature in the early stage, and the egg laying of breeding ducks is still recovering; the demand side may have a significant improvement in the enthusiasm for restocking after the temperature drops; the product side is supported by the stocking of "school season, Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day" in August and September, and the product is expected to be good. With the two-way support of supply and demand, the duckling market is also strongly supported.

source | Mysteel

Bad News This Week

Down clothing import and export statistics (July) - slow growth

In July 2024, our country exported a total of 5.276 million down jackets, a 13% increase from June this year; the export value was 1.25 billion yuan, a 23% increase from June this year.

Down jacket export table in July 2024

Product Name	Quantity (10,000 pieces)	RMB (100 million)	Number compared with last year	Amount compared with last year
Cotton men's down jacket	14.1	0.24	-87%	-84%
Men's down jacket made of synthetic fiber	185.0	4.62	-3%	1%
Cotton women's down jacket	5.1	0.12	-90%	-85%
Women's down jacket made of synthetic fiber	323.3	7.52	-9%	-17%

Export situation of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export situation of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

The data shows that the export of down jackets has come out of the off-season and has continued to grow for four months. However, the export volume in July this year has dropped by 25% year-on-year (June was down 39% year-on-year), and it is the lowest volume in July in the past 10 years.

In addition, affected by China's ban on the overseas circulation of cotton, the export share of cotton down jackets this year has been significantly lower every month than in previous years.

In terms of imports, in July 2024, a total of 657,000 down jackets were imported, an increase of 84% from the previous month; the import value was 538 million yuan, an increase of 68% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Down and feather export statistics of major provinces and cities in July 2024 - mostly declining

According to Chinese customs data, in July 2024, Anhui Province ranked first in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers.

In that month, Anhui Province exported 1,422 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 47%; the export value was 138 million yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 37%.

In July 2024, Zhejiang Province ranked second in the country in terms of export volume and value of down and feathers.

In that month, Zhejiang Province exported 1,202 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 5% year-on-year; the export value was 125 million yuan, a decrease of 16% year-on-year.

In July 2024, Guangdong Province exported 281 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 302%; the export value was 53 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 219%. Although there have been many twists and turns, the province's down and feather exports have shown a booming trend this year.

In July 2024, Jiangsu Province exported 244 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 35%; the export value was 62 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%. The export volume of down and feathers in the province has declined for four consecutive months, but the export value in January-July this year increased by 26% year-on-year.

In July 2024, Shanghai exported 17 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 41% year-on-year; the export value was 3 million yuan, a decrease of 75% year-on-year. After the city's down and feather exports hit a 41-month high in May, they continued to be sluggish in June and July. Judging from the situation in recent years, Shanghai's down and feather exports peak season is concentrated in the first half of the year.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Duck market is booming! Ducks take center stage during the Zhongyuan Festival

The 14th day of the seventh lunar month is the traditional folk festival of Guangdong and Guangxi people - the Zhongyuan Festival. On that day, citizens are busy buying festival items, and ducks have become the hottest "hot commodity" in the market, with sales being very hot.

It is said that in ancient times, ducks were raised after the beginning of spring, and in the seventh month of the lunar calendar, ducks were the most delicious, as the saying goes, "autumn wind makes ducks fat." In ancient times, supplies were scarce, and ordinary people could only eat meat during festivals. Over time, eating ducks during the Ghost Festival became a custom that has been passed down.

On August 15, "Guangxi Zhongyuan Festival ducks are in great demand ahead of schedule" also became a hot search. During the Ghost Festival, Liuzhou City estimated that the sales volume of ducks in the city market was about 220,000. This year, the supply of ducks is sufficient and the price is basically the same as last year.

According to sales practice, the three days before the Zhongyuan Festival are the peak sales period for ducks. After noon on August 15, large trucks stopped in front of the Liuzhou Haijixing Duck Wholesale Store, and workers unloaded the boxes of ducks from the trucks one by one onto the ground. This lively scene will continue until about 4 a.m. the next day.

Before the Zhongyuan Festival, the bosses who do the bulk duck feather plucking business are busy with the duck wholesale shops. Pan, who is engaged in this business at Liuzhou Haijixing, said that the workers usually start work at midnight and get off work at around 7 am the next day. However, this year's Ghost Festival is expected to pluck more than 3,000 duck feathers every day. To ensure that the work is completed, they will go to work at around 9 pm from the 15th to the 17th.

According to vendor Ms. Wu, ducks are easy to sell in poultry shops from the fifth day of the fifth lunar month to the fifteenth day of the eighth lunar month, and the prices are relatively stable. Among them, the peak sales period of ducks is from the thirteenth day of the seventh lunar month to the sixteenth day of the seventh lunar month, especially on the fourteenth day of the seventh lunar month, when the prices are the highest.

source | 南国今报、南国早报

News Situation

This week's news was mixed with both positive and negative news.

Hangzhou Sijiqing Clothing Street has already started to launch new autumn clothes, and some merchants have even started to prepare winter clothes to ensure that they are fully stocked before the peak consumption season arrives. This strategy of advance preparation is particularly evident in the down jacket sector, reflecting the strong seasonal characteristics of the down jacket market.

The export of down jackets has shown a slow growth this year, which shows that the complex and changeable international market environment has put some pressure on the export of down jackets. In particular, the impact of China's ban on the overseas circulation of cotton has reduced the export share of cotton down jackets.

The price of ducklings has broken through the 4 yuan mark, and the upward trend still exists. This reflects the positive attitude of the upstream breeding industry and the increased willingness to restock, which has a positive impact on the supply of raw materials for the down industry.

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