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Market Weekly Report | The industry fundamentals are good, but there is a big decline; raw cashmere transactions are light and lack of order support

2024-08-04 来源：金绒浏览量：1092

Market Summary

In the 31st week of 2024 (7.29-8.4), the market generally fell.

By August, the order season for branded clothing companies had basically ended, but orders for market goods had not increased, and downstream product companies were in a wait-and-see mood. Now, without order support, down raw material transactions continue to remain sluggish.

Taking into account the decline in raw wool content, the down market generally remains in a state of flat prices, shrinking trading volume and sideways trading. In the expectation of a decline, down clothing and product companies can bargain with all their strength.

Recently, affected by factors such as the weakening of key US economic data, the US dollar index has been falling, while accumulating momentum for the RMB. On August 2, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the 7.25 to 7.18 mark, reflecting the market's expectation of a stronger domestic economy.

Good News This Week

Price increases for down jackets this winter seem inevitable

Last year's popular "ice and snow tours" led to a surge in down jacket sales. Many businesses are making early plans for down jacket sales this winter. In Yintai City, a domestic first-line brand down jacket store with an area of more than 200 square meters is being fenced and renovated. "Now is the off-season for sales, so it's a good time to expand the scale and do a good job of renovation." said the person in charge of the brand store.

Compared with shopping malls, down jacket manufacturers have become busy in the summer. Take Shaoxing Jinnuo Clothing Co., Ltd. as an example. The production workshop has started full-load production in recent days.

"There is a time lag between production and launch. Since last month, domestic and foreign orders have gradually increased, many of which are from e-commerce channels," said Qiu Juwei, the person in charge. "Most of the products produced by the factory are goose down. The launch price will definitely exceed 1,000 yuan. Some foreign brands even have a retail price of over 10,000 yuan."

Down jackets are a necessity for many people in winter, so consumers are quite sensitive to the price of down jackets. Last winter, the topic of "high-priced down jackets" was once a hot search on Weibo. So, with the price of goose down and duck down rising, will the price of down jackets continue to rise this winter?

"From the current situation, price increases seem inevitable, and the magnitude will not be small." An industry insider did some calculations. A high-quality down jacket requires 200-300 grams of white goose down. According to the current market price of raw materials, the cost of goose down alone is 400-500 yuan, and the cost of fabrics, labor, design, etc. accounts for the other half of the cost. In other words, the current factory cost of a high-quality goose down jacket is close to 1,000 yuan.

"The rise in raw material prices will put more pressure on affordable down jackets. They want to adjust prices but dare not. However, mid- to high-end brands have a high premium to begin with, so they will be less under pressure from rising costs," said a manufacturer.

source | 越城区融媒体中心

Pinghu down jackets are in peak season all year round, and larger-scale orders will be on the agenda

Walking into Pinghu China Garment City under the scorching sun, half of the three-story main shops are hung with decoration fences, preparing for the upcoming sales peak in the second half of the year, while the other half are busy receiving the endless stream of buyers and wholesalers.

"The wholesale price of down jackets this season is half the price. During the peak season, the average purchase price of a piece of clothing is 400 yuan, but now it is less than 200 yuan." Ms. Li, a merchant who runs a women's clothing store in Zhuzhou, Hunan, came across the province specially to prepare for the autumn and winter sales, and she took a fancy to 9 styles of down jackets of the Moshang brand clothing.

"We kept 30 models of down jackets last year, totaling about 300,000 pieces. We started selling them at low prices in March, and our sales have exceeded 50 million in the past few months." Yang Long, the manager of Mo Shang, said that the store has been in the clothing city for 7 years and started selling "off-season models" in 2020. Almost every year, the off-season stock can be cleared out before the peak season.

"The processing fee for down jackets is low in summer, so we will take advantage of this period to stock up on more off-season goods and then develop high-end product lines during the peak sales period." Yang Long said that the cost of raw materials for down jackets is high this year, and purchasing power on the consumer side is relatively weak, so there is greater uncertainty in the market in the second half of the year.

Wu Xuequan, executive deputy general manager of Pinghu China Garment City, said that in May this year, the market organized original down jacket brand merchants to hold a large-scale original brand joint ordering meeting, with a turnover of 210 million yuan. Due to the good response, a larger-scale joint ordering meeting of hundreds of brands has been scheduled in August this year.

At this time, Qiu Ting, the brand manager of Manbuchacha, is busy preparing funds for the August order fair. She said that at the order fair in May this year, the brand sold nearly 60,000 down jackets with an order amount of over 10 million yuan. In the coming August, she wants to break a new record. In Qiu Ting's view, Pinghu down jackets are in peak season all year round.

source | 潮新闻

In June, the added value of leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry was relatively high

In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year (the growth rate of added value is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors). From a month-on-month perspective, in June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.42% over the previous month. From January to June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year. The first and second quarters increased by 6.1% and 5.9% respectively, continuing the rapid growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year.

In June, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 94.5%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year; the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,317.5 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 3.8% year-on-year.

Among the three major categories, the manufacturing industry grew by 5.5% in June. In terms of industries, the added value of 35 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth. Among the sub-industries under the manufacturing industry, "leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry" grew by 6.0% in June. From January to June, the added value increased by 4.8% cumulatively.

The growth of 6.0% is a relatively high growth rate, indicating that the production activities of the industry were relatively active in that month, which may benefit from the recovery of market demand. The cumulative growth of 4.8% shows that the industry has maintained a stable growth trend throughout the first half of the year, reflecting the good fundamentals of the industry.

source | 金绒采编自国家统计局

Profits of leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry continued to grow

On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to June 2024, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,511.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. In June alone, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.9 percentage points faster than in May.

In terms of industries, among the 41 major industrial sectors, 32 industries had year-on-year profit growth in the first half of the year, accounting for 78.0%, the same as in January-May. It should be noted that the profit growth rate of the "textile, clothing and apparel industry" was negative (-1.8%, the previous value was 1.7%).

Among the major industries, the "leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry" achieved a total operating income of 398.21 billion yuan from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%; operating costs of 344.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%; total profits of 17.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Although the year-on-year growth rate in May declined and costs increased, the overall profits of the industry continued to grow.

Researchers said that the performance of industrial enterprises above the designated size recovered steadily in the first half of the year. At the same time, it should be noted that insufficient domestic effective demand constrained the continued improvement of corporate performance, the severe and complex international environment increased the operating pressure on enterprises, and the foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprises' performance still needed to be consolidated.

source | 金绒整理自国家统计局

Bad News This Week

The average daily seedling output reached a new high

In July, the price of ducklings fell first and then rose. The national average price of ducklings was 3.32 yuan per bird, a year-on-year increase of 25.67%. In the 27th to 31st week of this year, the daily average output of ducklings first rose and then stabilized to a new annual high. The high temperature and humidity in the main production areas and the heavy rainfall and other factors have impacted the production of breeding ducks. The growth of ducklings is slow and there are signs of reduction.

In terms of breeding sentiment, the plan in early July was relatively normal, and the planned release time for adult ducks was just after the end of the dog days, so the sentiment for restocking was acceptable; in the middle of the month, the sentiment for restocking was low due to the impact of environmental protection inspections; in the last few days of the month, farmers in the main production areas rushed to restock, and some seedling companies over-issued, and their enthusiasm was significantly improved.

According to statistics from Mysteel agricultural product sample companies, the average daily output of white-feathered commercial ducklings in July was about 11.77 million, a month-on-month increase of 2.57%. The growth rate slowed down after the middle of the month, and the average daily output has reached the expected high for this year.

In the next 2-6 weeks, due to the high temperature and high humidity in the main production areas, the egg laying rate will show a slight correction, which is expected to be most obvious in late August and early September. After mid-September, as the newly laid breeding ducks are also added to the supply, the slow upward trend will resume.

source | Mysteel

The price of ducklings continues to rise, and the market for live ducks has partially recovered

Recently, the price of ducklings has continued to rise, with the increase reaching about 20% in many places. Well-known duckling suppliers such as Yike, New Hope Liuhe, and Hekangyuan have all raised their quotations, and the duckling market is showing a hot trend.

First, the price of feed raw materials has risen sharply this year, resulting in an increase in breeding costs, and duckling suppliers have to raise their quotations to ensure profit margins. Second, with the arrival of summer, duck meat consumption has entered its peak season, and farmers are more motivated to restock their stocks, resulting in a surge in demand for ducklings, further pushing up the price of ducklings.

In addition, the decline in the number of breeding ducks is also one of the important reasons for the increase in duckling prices. In recent years, due to factors such as stricter environmental protection policies and declining breeding benefits, some farmers have chosen to withdraw, the number of breeding ducks has continued to decline, and the supply of ducklings has become tighter.

At the same time, the live duck market also showed signs of partial recovery, with the purchase price of live ducks in Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan and other places rising slightly. However, whether it can continue to improve requires cautious observation, and attention needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand and farmers' willingness to sell their ducks.

On the one hand, summer is the traditional peak season for duck meat consumption. In addition, the domestic economy has recovered well this year, and residents' consumption capacity has increased, which is expected to drive demand growth. On the other hand, the supply of live ducks is still tight, and farmers are reluctant to sell, so the purchase price has risen slightly.

However, there is little room for duck meat prices to rise, market competition is intensifying, the profitability of slaughtering companies is being squeezed, and the enthusiasm for acquisitions is not high. Overall, the rising trend of duckling prices is difficult to reverse in the short term, and there is still uncertainty as to whether the live duck market can continue to improve.

source | 金融界

News Situation

This week's news, the positive news outweighs the negative news.

In June, both the added value and total profit of "leather, fur, feather and their products and footwear industry" achieved a high growth rate. This reflects that the fundamentals of the down industry are good, and production and sales activities are relatively active, but compared with the situation before May, there are signs of decline.

Off-season sales have become the main strategy of merchants, making the down jacket market in Pinghu China Garment City also show the peak season in summer. Due to the good response of the order fair in May, a larger-scale joint order fair of hundreds of brands will be held in August. Since the first order fair was held in 2022, the market's influence in the industry has continued to expand.

In July, the price of ducklings continued to rise, and the average daily output also reached a new high for the year. Summer is the peak season for duck meat consumption, and farmers are more motivated to restock their stocks, while the market for live ducks has also shown signs of a partial recovery. However, the current total supply has remained generally stable compared to July.

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