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Market Weekly Report | Costs remain high, apparel companies plan to produce cautiously; overseas markets are recovering, but down product exports are still challenging

2024-07-28 来源：金绒浏览量：1299

Summary

In the 30th week of 2024 (July 22-July 28), the market generally fell.

Affected by the price cut of raw materials and insufficient demand in the finished down market, the price of finished down has also started to fall slightly. According to the foreign trade statistics released by the customs, although the export of down raw materials continued to narrow the decline in June, based on the trend of previous years, the next two months may be a downward cycle.

The fundamental reason for the current sluggish market is the weak consumer power at the end, and the high cost of raw materials, which has increased the operating risks of clothing companies and forced them to be extremely cautious in production plans. The export of down clothing has even reached its lowest level in history. Although the sales of down clothing have soared in the off-season, consumer demand has also been overdrawn in advance.

The ducklings that have been recently hatched will be marketed during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, so most people are optimistic about the future market and the duckling production plan has been accelerated, which has put pressure on the price of duck down. Since April, the number of ducklings has been growing steadily. It is predicted that the daily average number of ducklings in late July and August is expected to reach 12-12.5 million. However, we still need to pay attention to the impact of extreme weather on breeding ducks.

Good News This Week

June "Down Bedding" Export Statistics - Growth Turns Positive

DUVET：

From January to June 2024, my country exported about 6,526 tons (2.82 million pieces) of down quilts, a year-on-year increase of 1%; the export value was about 624 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%.

In June 2024, my country exported about 1,163 tons (500,000 pieces) of down quilts, a year-on-year increase of 2%; the export value was about 109 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%.

In June 2024, the United States continued to be my country's largest trading partner for "down quilt" exports, accounting for 31% of the total exports this month (previous value 28%), with a slight increase in the proportion. Among them, the export volume was about 361 tons (110,000 pieces), an increase of 4% over the same period last year; the export value was about 33 million yuan, a decrease of 6% over the same period last year.

Germany was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 11.2% of total exports; followed by Australia with 10.9%, Japan and the United Kingdom with 8% and 5% respectively.

Other down bedding:

From January to June 2024, my country exported about 17,484 tons of "other down bedding", an increase of 0.5% year-on-year; the export value was about 658 million yuan, a decrease of 11% from last year.

In June 2024, my country exported about 3,739 tons of "other down bedding", an increase of 21% year-on-year; the export value was about 134 million yuan, a decrease of 4% from last year.

In June 2024, the United States is still the largest trading partner for my country's "other down bedding" exports, accounting for 54% of the total exports this month (previous value 48%), and the proportion has rebounded. Among them, the export volume is about 2021 tons, an increase of 31% over last year; the export value is about 64 million yuan, an increase of 20% over last year.

The United Kingdom was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 8% of total exports; followed by Canada with 6%, Germany with 5% and Australia with 4%.

Down bedding (duvet + other bedding)

From January to June 2024, my country exported approximately 24,009 tons of "down bedding", a year-on-year increase of 1%; the export value was approximately RMB 1.282 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.

Compared with the same period last year, the export volume of down bedding has turned from negative to positive in the first six months of this year; compared with the previous month, the export volume has been increasing steadily in the past five months, showing signs of recovery in the industry. In particular, other down bedding continued to show a strong recovery trend in June.

source | 金绒整理自海关数据

As the price of badminton increases, can duck and goose companies take this opportunity to find a new blue ocean?

As a by-product of poultry, feathers in the rising period may also open up new blue oceans for duck and goose companies, and mitigate some risks by extending the industrial chain. However, some companies said that entering the badminton industry is still under consideration, after all, adding a new badminton production line requires consideration of many factors.

On July 8, the stock price of Huaying Agriculture, known as the "king of ducks" in the breeding industry, rose to the daily limit, and the price increase of badminton became a hot topic among investors. However, Huaying Agriculture stated that in addition to duck breeding, the company's other main business is the down industry for clothing and bedding, not badminton. "Each duck has only a few large wing feathers that can be used as badminton raw materials. The company generally sells them as raw materials when downstream customers have demand."

Huaying Agricultural staff introduced that the recent purchase of big wing feathers by downstream customers can be described as in short supply, but adding a new production line requires consideration of many factors. The company currently does not have a badminton production line and has no more information to disclose. The company has formed a "food + down" strategic layout, and has a down business in the duck feather sector, and the market is equally broad.

Despite the continued price increases of duck and goose feathers, some waterfowl farming companies have no plans to further expand their downstream industries. According to Lihua Co., Ltd., which owns the goose farming business, the prices of goose down and goose feathers will rise sharply from the end of 2023, and even be transmitted to the meat goose end, which will support the rise in goose prices to a certain extent.

Lihua shares stated that in the development of goose industry, the company currently does not directly sell goose feathers and other by-products, but first implements the cooperative breeding model of "company + cooperative + farmers", accelerates the layout of goose breeding bases, and enhances the competitiveness of the goose sector. Among them, the Jiangsu Huai'an goose breeding base project is expected to be put into operation in October this year, which will provide support for the company's goose sector output growth.

As for the price trend of meat ducks and duck feathers, analysts believe that under the influence of high temperatures from July to September, the production of meat ducks will shrink, coupled with favorable seasonal demand, prices are expected to have room for recovery and return to a low level in the fourth quarter. Based on the market supply and demand, the price of duck feathers is expected to remain high in the third quarter.

source | 新京报

As the temperature rises, Jiaxing's down jacket market is also quietly heating up

On July 22, the hottest day of the year, the temperature climbed to 40℃. When pedestrians were almost melting after walking a few steps outside, the winter clothing market in Jiaxing was quietly heating up. In Pinghu, the sales of off-season down jackets reached a peak in June, and the number of overseas orders continued to rise.

Tianya Clothing mainly develops and designs original down jacket brands, and 90% of its products are sold to Eastern Europe. Now is the peak season for foreign trade sales. Fang Jinzhong, the person in charge, said that foreign customers now prefer new and unique styles, so they have to transform from OEM to original products.

"We have already launched 25 new styles this year." He joked that he was the "design king" in Pinghu China Fashion City. However, Fang Jinzhong had never learned painting or design, and he thought that directly modifying the finished garments with a pen was the most direct and effective "homemade method".

At the Mizi Goose Down Clothing store on the third floor of Pinghu China Garment City, the person in charge, Lin Amin, was holding the blueprints and making the final fine-tuning on the store decoration together with the staff.

Although the decoration has not been completed, there is an endless stream of customers coming to purchase goods and view the display. "Our customers are mainly second-tier down jacket wholesalers. Last year, we opened up overseas markets for the first time and supplied goods to Southeast Asian countries." Lin Amin said that from July last year to now, the total sales of Mizi Goose Down has reached more than 10 million yuan. He is full of expectations for the upcoming peak season.

In another week, the Pinghu China Garment City Joint Order Fair will be held. Wu Linqi is the executive person in charge of this order fair. In order to attract more down jacket buyers to negotiate orders, she and her team members started the preparatory work such as recruiting merchants, placing advertisements, and producing brochures more than a month ago.

"Currently, more than 6,000 customers from all over the country have signed up to participate, and the total order amount is expected to exceed 350 million yuan." Wu Linqi stared at the promotional video while taking time to contact material suppliers to urge them to ship the goods. In just half an hour, Wu Linqi made more than ten calls.

source | 潮新闻

Bad news this week

Down clothing import and export statistics (June)——Peak season is not prosperous

In June 2024, my country exported a total of 4.66 million down jackets, a 122% increase from May this year; the export value was 1.017 billion yuan, a 138% increase from May this year.

Down jacket export table in June 2024

product name	Quantity(10,000 pieces)	RMB (100 million yuan)	Quantity compared with last year	Amount compared with last year
棉制男羽绒服	16.8	0.27	-89%	-86%
化纤制男羽绒服	158.3	3.77	-7%	-13%
棉制女羽绒服	8.0	0.13	-91%	-88%
化纤制女羽绒服	282.9	6.00	-21%	-19%

Export situation of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export situation of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

The data shows that the export of down jackets has come out of the off-season and has continued to grow for three months. However, the export volume in June this year has dropped by 39% year-on-year (May was down 62% year-on-year), and it is the lowest volume in June in the past 10 years.

In addition, affected by China's ban on the overseas circulation of cotton, the export share of cotton down jackets this year has been significantly lower every month than in previous years.

In terms of imports, in June 2024, a total of 357,000 down jackets were imported, an increase of 121% from the previous month; the import value was 320 million yuan, a decrease of 4% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Down and feather export statistics of major provinces and cities in June 2024 - generally falling

According to Chinese customs data, in June 2024, Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country in both export volume and export value of down and feathers.

In that month, Zhejiang Province exported 1,605 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 41%; the export value was 147 million yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 17%.

In June 2024, Anhui Province ranked second in the country in both export volume and export value of down and feathers.

In that month, Anhui Province exported 1,379 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 29%; the export value was 116 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40%.

In June 2024, Jiangsu Province exported 255 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 12% year-on-year; the export value was 53 million yuan, an increase of 44% year-on-year. The province's down and feather exports have fallen sharply for three consecutive months, but the export value in the first half of the year increased by 23% year-on-year.

In June 2024, Guangdong Province exported 180 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 71%; the export value was 29 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119%. Although there have been many twists and turns, the province's down and feather exports have shown a booming trend this year.

In June 2024, Shanghai exported 74 tons of down and feathers, up 32% year-on-year; the export value was 20 million yuan, up 70% year-on-year. After the export volume hit a 41-month high in May, it returned to a downturn in June. Judging from the situation in recent years, the peak season for Shanghai's down and feather exports is concentrated in the first half of the year.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

News Situation

This week's news, the positive news outweighs the negative news.

From January to June 2024, my country's down bedding export volume and value showed obvious signs of recovery. Especially for "other down bedding", the export volume in June increased by 21% year-on-year, showing a rebound in market demand. The United States remains the main export market, and its share has increased significantly.

In June, the export volume of down clothing increased by 122% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in market demand, but the export volume decreased by 39% year-on-year. Affected by the fluctuations in global market demand and the ban on the overseas circulation of cotton, the down clothing industry needs to find new growth points in the changing global trade environment.

Although the export value of down and feathers in some provinces and cities has increased, it has generally declined. For example, although the export volume of Zhejiang Province has increased year-on-year, the export value has decreased year-on-year. This shows that the down industry still faces certain challenges in export, such as exchange rate fluctuations.

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