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Market Weekly Report | The peak season for duck product sales is approaching, and the supply of duck seedlings is gradually increasing; the willingness to purchase raw materials is not strong, and the market is in a stalemate

2024-07-13     来源：金绒     浏览量：1042

Summary

The market conditions in the 28th week of 2024 (7.8-7.14) were generally stable.

It is the end of the plum rain season and the beginning of summer, but this year there have been more heavy rainstorms and floods, and there have been more days with high temperatures. As the weather gets hotter, the down content of duck and goose wool continues to decline, and the unit price of down is also falling, so the willingness to purchase raw materials is not strong, but since the orders for finished down have entered the peak delivery season, the market has become stalemate.

The supply of ducklings is still increasing gradually, and the corresponding time for the current replenishment is roughly August 24. In previous years, August is the peak season for duck product sales. Summer vacation will gradually improve consumption, so farmers may actively replenish their stocks. It is expected that the average daily duckling volume from late July to August is expected to reach 12-12.5 million.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's exports in June increased by 8.6% year-on-year, imports fell by 2.3%, and the trade surplus hit the highest level since 1990. Some research reports believe that due to the impact of tariff trade frictions among multiple countries, the Red Sea conflict and potential strike risks, companies' early shipments have brought about a strong export effect, but the export rush effect is likely to continue in the third quarter.

Good News This Week

1

The amount of raw materials entering the market is too small, and the price of badminton is soaring

"Buying badminton balls feels like speculating in stocks!" a badminton enthusiast lamented, "Since the beginning of this year, badminton prices have continued to soar, with an average increase of more than 50%. But there is no way, we still have to play badminton."

At the beginning of July, major badminton manufacturers ushered in a new round of price increases, causing many badminton enthusiasts to complain and say "it hurts". You know, just a quarter ago, the price of badminton had just increased.

Why has the price of badminton increased so much? Many relevant people said that the main reason is the increase in upstream costs. "The price of badminton feathers has increased, and the price of the balls must have increased as well."

At present, the common badminton is composed of 16 feathers, and each goose has a maximum of 7 blade feathers on its left and right wings that are suitable for making badminton. Therefore, it takes nearly 20 geese to make a dozen (12 balls) of blade feathers on their left and right wings. Duck feathers can also be used, but they also require scarce blade feathers.

A feather collector in the upstream of the badminton industry said that this year the purchase price of a pound of duck feathers and goose feathers is around 35 yuan and 40 yuan respectively, while last year the purchase price was around 25 yuan and 30 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan per pound.

"There is a severe shortage of fur pieces in the market now, especially razor feathers. They need to be reserved in advance, and you may not be able to buy them quickly even if you have cash in hand." A fur piece supplier in Taiqian County said that the price of a pound of razor feathers has exceeded 300 yuan and is still on the rise.

The supplier analyzed that because the rate of ducks and geese being slaughtered has decreased in recent years, the amount of feathers entering the market has also decreased, and the corresponding price of feathers has risen. In order to ensure the supply of feathers in the market, in the past two years, he has set off to the Northeast to collect feathers after the 15th day of the eighth lunar month. "They like to eat big geese there, and we can collect hundreds of tons every year."

Another reason for the price increase of badminton is that there are fewer farms. A businessman engaged in breeding lamented: "Unlike in the past when there were still many small farms, the farms that survived now are all large standardized breeding factories, focusing on fast delivery, and they can be ready in 30 days. A 30-day-old duck has not grown its feathers yet, so where can the feathers for badminton be obtained?"

In addition, the price increase is still a dynamic game among multiple parties, including brand owners, ball-making factories and "fur dealers" in the feather business. Basically, they rush to buy good fur pieces in the short term by increasing the price, and pre-book the next batch of fur pieces from slaughterhouses and farms.

Among them, "feather dealers" play a key role in the badminton industry chain. They purchase raw feathers from farms at a price per kilogram, select, dry and grade them, and then sell feathers of different grades to brands at different prices. The brands then entrust OEM factories to produce badminton.

If a large manufacturer is willing to pay a higher price for high-quality feathers, the price of the entire industry will be pushed up. The "feather dealers" will also decide on sales based on market conditions and bids, forming a situation of waiting for the price to be raised. But no matter what the situation is, the price of feathers is still determined by the duck farmers.

Some industry insiders believe that some large-scale farms may have begun to select feathers themselves, and this trend may weaken the market position of traditional "feather dealers". From a business logic point of view, it does not require high costs or special skills for farms to select feathers themselves, and the equipment required is relatively cheap.

Raw pieces are mainly traded on the spot basis, and prices are still rising. The director of a badminton factory said: "Unlike some specific products that are controlled by the state, badminton is entirely regulated by the market itself, and the current market situation is just like this. Of course, if the cost drops in the future, our selling price will be adjusted accordingly."

source |  综合自大河报、蓝鲸财经

2

The bottom has passed, and the down jacket OEM manufacturers expect the performance in the second half of the year to be better than last year

Quang Viet, a major down jacket OEM, announced that its consolidated revenue for June 2024 was 1.818 billion yuan. As it entered the traditional peak season in the third quarter, Quang Viet's shipments were booming, with revenue increasing by 35% from the previous month.

Wu Chaobi, chairman of Guangyue, said that the inventory adjustment of brand customers has come to an end. Guangyue will enter the peak season for production and shipment from the second quarter of 2024, and the bottom has passed. In June, due to the adjustment of shipping schedules of some order customers, the monthly consolidated revenue decreased slightly by about 4% compared with the same period last year, but operations are expected to resume positive growth in the second half of the year.

Guangyue has now begun to plan orders for 2025, and orders from brand customers have clearly shown a warming trend. In addition to mastering existing customer orders and product projects, Guangyue has also added orders from two new brand customers this year, and is continuing to negotiate with other brand customers, with a positive outlook for future operations.

KWONG LUNG, a major down jacket OEM manufacturer, recorded revenue of NT$2.516 billion in the second quarter of this year, up 1.9% year-on-year, ending six consecutive quarters of negative growth. Its revenue in June was NT$945 million, down 2.7% month-on-month and up 8.9% year-on-year, failing to return to the 1 billion mark as expected, mainly due to the delay in customer bookings affecting shipments of garments.

In the first half of 2024, Guanglong's revenue was 4.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. Among them, the revenue of garments was 2.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, while the down raw material department, with the help of the continued rise in market prices, had a revenue of 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, while the home textile department remained flat.

Guanglong's performance in the second half of the year is expected to be better than last year. The garment industry has maintained growth in each season due to the recovery of orders and the joining of new customers; home textiles have entered the traditional peak season, and the main customers are actively opening stores, which will drive demand; the gross profit margin of down raw materials is under pressure due to the high market price, so profit margin will be the priority.

source |  中时新闻网、钜亨网

3

Can the upgrading of Bangladesh-China relations reverse the decline in down exports to Bangladesh?

At the invitation of Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, paid an official visit to China from July 8 to 10, 2024. During the visit, the leaders of the two countries announced that China-Bangladesh relations would be upgraded to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.

The joint statement mentioned that the two sides agreed to deepen cooperation in the fields of trade, investment and finance. Bangladesh welcomes Chinese companies to increase investment in Bangladesh in the fields of economic and industrial parks, oil and gas development, new energy, water resources and sewage management, garment manufacturing, etc.

Bangladesh, with a population of 170 million, is the second largest economy in South Asia, and its economic growth has been remarkable in recent years. Among them, the garment industry is the pillar industry of Bangladesh and also the industry with the largest foreign exchange earnings.

In terms of investment environment, Bangladesh's advantages are mainly reflected in government attention, preferential policies, rapid economic growth, large market potential, sufficient and cheap labor resources, etc. Unlike India, Bangladesh guarantees that investment capital, profits and dividends can be remitted back to the country.

In addition, according to a recent report by Bangladesh's Dawn Daily, Bangladesh is seeking a loan of about $5 billion from China. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline and can currently only meet import needs for two and a half months.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Bangladesh, Tarukde, said that China and Bangladesh are in the negotiation stage. If Bangladesh obtains the loan, it will settle part of the raw materials imported from China in RMB, which can help Bangladesh restore its foreign exchange reserves. This may mean that Bangladesh will place a large number of orders with Chinese traders.

Bangladesh has always been the main market for our country's down and feather exports. According to customs data, from January to May this year, our country exported 545 tons of high-quality down to Bangladesh, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and the export value was 227 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%.

Since 2020, Bangladesh's imports of down and feathers from our country have begun to decline significantly. In the current "strong dollar cycle", it will undoubtedly be very difficult to expand imports of textile and clothing raw materials. Now that Bangladesh-China relations have been upgraded, it is unknown whether the decline in down exports to Bangladesh can be reversed?

source |  金绒采编自孟中企协、南亚研究通讯、海关数据

4

Foreign trade orders are placed ahead of schedule, and winter clothing fabrics prices have increased significantly

As the weather gradually gets hotter, the textile market has entered the traditional off-season. However, at this time, some cloth owners have reported that the prices of some fabrics in the market have risen, mainly in nylon spunlace with specifications of 380T-420T.

Mr. Wu, the person in charge of the fabric supermarket, said: "Now the selling price of some specifications of nylon taffeta has increased by 2-3 cents per meter, which is indeed a relatively large increase." The prices of other specifications of grey cloth have also fluctuated to a certain extent, but at this stage the overall price fluctuation is far less than that of nylon taffeta.

It is reported that 380T-420T nylon spunlace is the raw material for producing winter clothing. As the market focus shifts from spring and summer to autumn and winter, traders begin to receive goods in advance in preparation for the second half of the year. Some foreign trade orders are also placed in advance due to geopolitical conflicts, forming a wave of demand in the market.

Mr. Wu said: "At this time of year, the prices of some autumn and winter fabrics will rise. This increase is actually cyclical. It's just that the market competition is too fierce this year, and the prices of many grey fabrics are difficult to rise, which makes the price increase of nylon spinning more conspicuous this time."

source |  布工厂

Bad news this week

1

Ducklings remain at a high level in the first half of 2024

According to statistics, the average price of white-feather ducklings in the first half of 2024 was 3.57 yuan per duck, a year-on-year decrease of 26.38%. In the first half of the year, the national duckling price showed an "M"-shaped trend. The two high points appeared in mid-February and early May, and the two low points were in late February and mid-June.

The most drastic decline in white-feather duck seedlings in the first half of the year was between May 1 and 7. The factors that had the greatest impact were seasonal high temperatures, the supply of seedlings being bearish on seedling prices, and manufacturers’ consensus being that refrigerated storage should be used to protect costs and reduce inventory. The acceptance of high seedling prices was limited, and increased subsidies were difficult to coordinate. Some large slaughterhouses reduced slaughter volumes in June.

The average slaughter profit in the first half of the year was 273.21 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 44.39%. The average operating rate was 75.55%, a year-on-year increase of 9.78%; the average storage capacity rate was 85.24%, a year-on-year increase of 15.89%. In general, the slaughtering end mainly ensures a reasonable inventory structure based on subsequent production capacity and shipment conditions, and actively ships to reduce inventory risks.

In the first half of the year, the average daily output of commercial ducklings was about 10.225 million, an increase of 8.49% month-on-month. It is estimated that the average daily output from late July to August is expected to reach 12-12.5 million.

source |  Mysteel

2

Global temperatures hit record high in June

According to the latest monthly bulletin released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the EU climate monitoring agency, every month since June 2023 (13 consecutive months) has been hotter than the same period in the past. June 2024 became the hottest June in recorded history, with an average temperature of 16.66°C.

According to the bulletin, the global average temperature in the past 12 months (July 2023 to June 2024) has hit the highest value on record, 1.64 degrees Celsius higher than the average temperature before industrialization (1850 to 1900).

Some scientists point out that the latest data shows that 2024 is likely to surpass 2023 and become the hottest year on record, because human-caused climate change and previous natural phenomena such as El Niño are pushing this year's temperature further to the historical high.

Although temperatures were close to average in Western Europe, unusual rainfall led to flooding in places like Germany, Switzerland, France and Italy, while other parts of the world such as eastern Canada, the western United States, Brazil, Siberia in Russia and much of Africa were warmer than average.

source |  财联社、nos.nl

News Situation

This week's news has more positives than negatives.

As the second largest economy in South Asia, Bangladesh's garment industry is its pillar industry, with a large demand for down. However, affected by the "strong dollar cycle", it has become more difficult for Bangladesh to import down raw materials. The upgrading of China-Bangladesh relations may help reverse the decline of China's down exports to Bangladesh.

As the traditional peak season approaches, Guangyue's revenue has increased significantly, and orders have shown a clear recovery trend. Guanglong has also ended six consecutive quarters of negative growth, and it is expected that the performance in the second half of the year will be better than last year. Although the price of down raw materials remains high, companies have responded to cost pressures through profit-preserving measures, and the overall industry has shown signs of recovery.

Due to the lower rate of duck and goose slaughter, the number of feathers on the market has decreased, causing prices to soar. The standardization of farms and the rapid delivery model have also led to a tight supply of high-quality feathers. The badminton industry has become the same as the down industry, facing the dual pressures of raw material shortages and price increases.

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