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Market Weekly Report | Prices are supported, and the supply and demand of down are still in a game; the temperature is high this summer, and there may be quality problems with raw materials

2024-07-07 来源：金绒浏览量：902

Summary

The market conditions in the 27th week of 2024 (7.1-7.7) were generally stable.

Affected by the increase in the settlement price of duck feathers in June, the prices of raw feathers and down were supported, while the finished down market continued to consolidate. This week is July, and at this time of year in previous years, the consumption of down for domestic and foreign trade would enter its peak period, but the supply and demand sides are still in a game to find a reasonable price acceptable to both sides.

The China Meteorological Administration predicts that this summer, the temperature in most parts of the country will be high, and there is a risk of heat waves in East China, Central China and South China. This high temperature weather will bring challenges to major duck farming provinces such as Shandong, Jiangsu and Hebei. In addition to the decline in production efficiency, the quality of raw duck wool may also deteriorate, and there may be a relatively large number of immature duck follicles.

Recently, the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) of various countries in June have been released one after another. Among them, China's official PMI was 49.5, the same as last month; the US ISM manufacturing index was 48.5, shrinking for three consecutive months; the initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI was 45.6, a six-month low. The PMIs of these three major economies all showed weakness in manufacturing and comprehensive economic activities, reflecting the increasing uncertainty in the global economy.

Good News This Week

Bosideng's average unit price at June order fair increased, and goose down models increased in price

Recently, Bosideng disclosed its performance for the 2023/2024 fiscal year. During the reporting period, both revenue and net profit hit historical highs, far exceeding market expectations.

At the subsequent performance exchange meeting, Bosideng management said that in addition to "focusing on the main category of down jackets without wavering", Bosideng will focus on expanding the category of fashionable functional clothing. "The revenue of sun protection clothing increased from 0 to 100 million yuan the year before last, and reached 500 million yuan in 2023. In 2024, we will reach 1 billion yuan, which proves Bosideng's ability."

Expanding product categories also has a corresponding "cost". As the gross profit margin of Bosideng brand sun protection clothing is slightly lower than that of down jackets, and the growth rate of sun protection clothing category is faster during the reporting period, the gross profit margin of Bosideng brand down jackets (sun protection clothing is included in the brand down jacket category) has dropped by 1.2 percentage points to 65%.

Following sun protection clothing, this year Bosideng has set its sights on outdoor jackets. Bosideng management believes that outdoor clothing is a "very good outlet" and that "Bosideng's single-shell jackets have been popular since March this year, and this category will be promoted in July."

In addition, it is reported that at Bosideng's June order conference, the average unit price of first-time orders increased, with the price range ranging from nearly 2,000 to 2,250 yuan per piece (last year, all order conferences ended with an overall unit price of about 1,750 yuan per piece), mainly benefiting from the increased demand for innovative products among franchisees.

As the price of raw material goose down doubled, the price of goose down models increased, but the puffs were changed to duck down this year, and the selling price remained unchanged. In terms of performance guidance, the sales of light down (including basic light down, three-in-one assault down jackets, personalized models, etc.) in 2023 will be 3 billion yuan, and the target for 2024 is 4 billion+.

source | 华尔街见闻、广发纺服

The added value of the leather, fur, feather and their products and footwear industry increased by 7.1%

China's industrial added value fell slightly in May, while production grew steadily. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year (the growth rate of added value is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors). From a month-on-month perspective, in May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.30% over the previous month. From January to May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year.

In terms of economic types, in May, the value added of state-controlled enterprises increased by 3.6% year-on-year; joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.4%; foreign-invested enterprises and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 2.5%; and private enterprises increased by 5.9%.

In terms of industries, in May, the added value of 33 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth. Among the sub-industries under the manufacturing industry, the "leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry" grew by 7.1% in May, and the cumulative added value increased by 4.6% from January to May.

The growth rate of 7.1% indicates that the industry has a strong growth momentum, which may indicate the recovery of the industry. The cumulative growth of 4.6% indicates that the entire industry has maintained a stable growth trend for a long period of time. This reflects that the fundamentals of the industry are currently relatively solid and have certain growth potential.

source | 金绒采编自国家统计局

Profits in the leather, fur, feather and footwear industries continued to grow

On June 27, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to May 2024, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 2,754.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. In May alone, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7% year-on-year, a significant decrease from the previous month.

From January to May, among the 41 major industrial sectors, 32 sectors saw year-on-year profit growth, accounting for 78.0%, and the industry growth rate expanded by 2.4 percentage points compared with January to April. Among them, the profit of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.5% year-on-year, 8.1 percentage points higher than that of above-scale industries, making it the largest contributing sector.

Among the major industries, the "leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry" achieved a total operating income of 323.4 billion yuan from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; operating costs of 279.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%; total profits of 13.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. Although the year-on-year growth rate in May has declined and costs are also increasing, the overall profits of the industry are still growing.

Researchers said that in May, as the effects of macroeconomic policies continued to be released, market demand steadily recovered, industrial production grew steadily, the efficiency of industrial enterprises above a designated size continued to recover, and profits continued to grow.

source | 金绒整理自国家统计局、经济参考报

This year's goose down has problems such as decreased fluffiness and smaller down clusters.

In order to promote the green, healthy and orderly development of the down industry, help improve the quality of the Yangtze River Delta clothing and apparel industry, and protect the quality and safety of down products, the "2024 Yangtze River Delta Down Industry High-Quality Development Forum" was held in Hangzhou on June 25.

Xu Jie, vice president of the China Down Industry Association, comprehensively analyzed the current development of the down industry from the perspectives of price, market conditions and product quality. She analyzed that the price of down raw materials continued to rise, with duck down rising slowly and goose down rising rapidly.

Xu Jie suggested purchasing in batches when the market is high, dispersing orders as much as possible to reduce the risk of down factories breaching contracts, and preparing a small amount of spot stock to ensure normal production or temporary orders. The higher the market price, the higher the risk of down quality, and purchasing and quality control need to be vigilant about the smooth delivery of large quantities of goods.

She also emphasized that the growth cycle of geese this year is shorter than in previous years, and the quality of goose down has problems such as decreased fluffiness and smaller down clusters, so the quality control of goose down needs to be cautious.

Zhang Haixuan, Director of the Textile, Clothing, Apparel and Home Products Testing Division of Shenzhen Testing Institute, interpreted the national sampling rules for down clothing and bedding products. She shared that although the total funding for national supervision and random inspection of product quality will decrease in 2024, the funding investment in the e-commerce field will increase, and multiple fields will be compositely inspected.

Down jackets have been spot-checked in the e-commerce field in the past three years, and the number of spot-checked samples has increased from 222 batches in 2021 to 370 batches in 2023. Down items such as down content, down content, and duck feather (down) content have frequently failed to meet the standards. In the past three years, down quilts have only been spot-checked in 2021.

source | SMQ国体中心

Bad News This Week

Even tougher than the United States, Indonesia plans to impose tariffs of up to 200% on Chinese imports

According to Reuters and other media reports, Indonesian Trade Minister Hasan said in public on June 28 that Indonesia will impose safeguard tariffs of 100% to 200% on imported products such as footwear, clothing, textiles, cosmetics and ceramics to restart and strengthen protection measures for domestic industries.

Hassan explained that due to changes in the global trade pattern, especially the impact of the Sino-US trade war, there is an oversupply of Chinese products in the international market. Many products originally intended for the Western market have turned to other markets, including Indonesia, after being rejected.

He said the shift put enormous pressure on Indonesia's local industries as the influx of low-priced imported goods threatened the survival of local small and medium-sized enterprises, and if the United States can impose tariffs of up to 200% on goods such as ceramics and clothing, then Indonesia can do the same.

In response to the concerns of the domestic industry and to more precisely protect local industries from the impact of imported goods, the Indonesian government is drafting a new ministerial regulation. This new regulation will focus on sensitive industries such as footwear, clothing, textiles, cosmetics and ceramics, and plans to restrict the import of these goods by imposing high safeguard tariffs.

Santoso, a senior official of the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, said on June 29 that the Indonesian Trade Safeguard Committee is investigating to determine the tariff rate. According to data from its Statistics Bureau, Indonesia mainly imports clothing and clothing accessories from China, Vietnam and Bangladesh.

At present, this will significantly increase the cost of Chinese goods in the Indonesian market, which may lead to a decrease in the number of goods exported from China to Indonesia. From January to May 2024, China exported 404 tons of down and feathers to Indonesia, an increase of 8% year-on-year.

source | 海运网、深圳外贸圈

The number of newly produced duck breeders will continue to increase, and the supply of ducklings will continue to grow slowly

At the end of the second quarter, the profit margin of hatching egg companies was still good. However, some production areas in Shandong Province have seen a decline in egg production and fertilization rates, and many companies are not incubating at full capacity. In addition, the companies are generally not enthusiastic about hatching eggs, and most orders are contract eggs. The market egg trading is not fast, and the egg storage cycle is shortened.

In the 23rd to 26th week of this year, the daily average output of white-feathered broiler ducks reached a new high for the year. Although affected by the high temperature and reduced production and the general mood of hatching, there is still an increase in the newly produced breeder ducks, and the supply will continue to grow slowly. The newly produced breeder ducks that follow the molting will gradually join in mid-to-early July.

Affected by the high temperature and policies, plans were slow in early June and farmers were not very motivated. In mid-to-late June, affected by the rise and then fall in seedling prices, farmers in the main production areas rushed to restock, some seedling companies over-issued, and their enthusiasm increased significantly.

On the demand side, slaughterhouses are under great pressure, with many duck cuts reaching their lowest level in nearly a year and a half, and small white strips suffering deep losses. Overall, operations resumed in late June, and many companies faced inventory pressure and adopted profit-sharing measures to reduce inventory risks.

source | Mysteel

News Situation

This week's news has more positives than negatives.

The average daily output of white-feathered broiler ducks hit a new high in the second quarter. Although the production plan was delayed due to high temperatures and policy impacts, the increase in the number of newly produced breeding ducks will lead to a slow increase in the supply of ducklings. In terms of market demand, slaughterhouses are under great pressure, and the price of broiler duck cuts is low. Enterprises are facing inventory pressure and have taken measures to reduce inventory risks by making concessions on shipments.

In 2024, goose down may have quality problems such as decreased fluffiness and smaller down clusters, which puts higher requirements on the quality control of down products. Companies can purchase in batches when the price is high to spread the order risk and keep spot reserves to cope with market changes. In addition, the quality of down clothing is frequently inspected, and companies need to ensure that product quality meets the standards.

In May, the industrial added value of "leather, fur, feather and their products and footwear industry" maintained a growth trend, while operating costs and total profits also increased, showing that the industry performed well overall, but there is still some uncertainty in the market. In particular, the rise in goose down prices has posed a challenge to the pricing and cost control of down jackets.

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