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Market Weekly Report | Exports hit new highs, and the international market demand for down remains strong; the market heat has dropped sharply, and the washing manufacturers are willing to lower the price to receive goods.

2024-06-23 来源：金绒浏览量：4370

Summary

In the 25th week of 2024 (June 17-June 23), the market generally fell.

As the suppliers of branded clothing have basically finished stocking up and the 618 Shopping Festival has ended, the down market has cooled down. Due to the lack of downstream buyers and the strong willingness of washing plants to lower the purchase price of raw materials, the market reflects that the transaction price has been sporadically reduced.

In terms of exports, customs data in May showed that feather and down filling and down bedding both increased year-on-year and month-on-month, and although down jacket exports decreased significantly year-on-year, they at least entered the peak season on time month-on-month. This reflects the stronger momentum of European and American brand customers to place orders, and the textile industry in Southeast Asian countries is also recovering.

Affected by the slowdown of economic recovery, geopolitical events and the interest rate differential between China and the United States, the US dollar has passively appreciated and the RMB has repeatedly depreciated. Recently, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar hit a new low this year, approaching the 7.3 mark again. At present, it seems that American sellers are paying more attention to Chinese down.

Good News This Week

Will a strong El Nino bring a strong La Nina? Abrupt climate change will "return" with unknown consequences

According to our country's standard "Method for Distinguishing El Niño/La Niña Events" (GB/T 33666-2017), the eastern El Niño event that began in May 2023 lasted until April 2024 and was confirmed to have ended in May; the intensity of this El Niño event was moderate and it lasted for 12 months.

On June 3rd local time, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a notice stating that the El Niño event has shown signs of ending. From June to August 2024, there is an equal probability (50%) of neutral conditions or transition to La Niña; from July to September 2024, the probability of La Niña increases to 60%; from August to November, this probability will reach 70%.

The WMO's forecast is closer to the latest report from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). On June 13, local time, NOAA reported that there is a 65% chance that La Niña will form between July and September 2024, and an 85% chance that it will last until the 2024-25 northern hemisphere winter (November to January of the following year).

La Nina strengthens regional climate features, making dry areas drier and wet areas wetter. In many places, especially in the tropics, La Nina has the opposite climate impact of El Nino. But the question now is, will a relatively strong El Nino, like the recent one, lead to a developing La Nina that is also strong?

In the historical record, there have been only 10 times when ENSO has transitioned directly from El Niño to La Niña in one year without a neutral winter. One of the four weak or moderate El Niños became a strong La Niña, and four of the six strong El Niños became strong La Niñas. However, the strongest El Niño eventually became the weakest La Niña.

So the relationship between the strength of an El Niño and the strength of a subsequent La Niña is a bit confusing, but it is important to understand that stronger events do not necessarily lead to stronger impacts, and even a moderate or weak La Niña can have strong impacts in a certain place.

source | 金绒采编自NOAA、ENSO博客、中国气象报社

Wuhan Hanzheng Street welcomes ordering season, new Hanpai men's clothing is favored by merchants

On June 18, Wuhan Hanzheng Street ushered in the autumn and winter clothing ordering season. In Yunshang Wuhan International Fashion Center located on Hanzheng Street, many men's clothing stores exhibited new autumn and winter products such as hoodies, down jackets, vests, etc., attracting merchants from all over the country to come for cooperation and negotiation. Mr. Li from Hangzhou placed an order for more than 3,000 down jackets as soon as he arrived.

Xu Yanxia, the manager of Shangjing brand, has been engaged in men's clothing wholesale for more than ten years. She introduced that more than 150 customers come to the store every day. Yesterday, 40,000 to 50,000 down vests were ordered in one day. An e-commerce customer from Hangzhou ordered 6,000 down vests at one time. In the future, in-depth cooperation will be carried out to develop online models based on the needs of this customer.

"Different from other stores, we only sell down vests at this matchmaking event, and will organize customers to order trendy down jackets in late July." Xu Yanxia is very confident in her products. She introduced that the store has always insisted on originality, and this year has developed more than 70 new down jackets for autumn and winter, and the number of styles has doubled compared with previous years.

Liu Hong, a merchant from Zhengzhou Yinji, went straight to Yunshang as soon as he got off the train. "This year, there are big changes here. Hanpai Men's Clothing has four floors, with many brands, new styles and high cost performance. You can't finish shopping in one day." Liu Hong said.

After visiting Hanpai Men's Wear, Mr. Meng, a customer from Jinan, placed an order for 6,200 down jackets without hesitation. Mr. Meng said: "Every year, I go to Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other places to look at styles, but usually I look at more and order less. Hanpai Men's Wear, especially down jackets, is very influential in the country, and we order the most."

Jinan, CEO of Yunshang Industrial Development Group, said that this year the total number of Yunshang Xinhanpai menswear merchants exceeded 400, doubling that of last year; the clothing production capacity exceeded 100 million pieces, and the product composition was more complete; merchants from production areas in Guangzhou and Hangzhou also settled in Hanzheng Street, bringing more original designs.

source | 中新网湖北、硚口发布

Down jacket sales on various platforms ushered in an "off-season peak"

As a concentrated node for off-season marketing, although the summer temperature has been rising in recent times, many anchors who bring goods have begun to "put on down jackets while enjoying the air conditioning" in the live broadcast room. The sales of down jackets on various platforms have ushered in an "off-season peak".

On the e-commerce page of Xiaohongshu, many down jackets from brands such as Teenie Weenie and Mori Girl Tribe are marked with words such as "lowest price in 90 days" and "lowest price in 180 days". Not only that, Bosideng, which was "highly expensive" many times last winter, can also be "taken down" recently within 1,000 yuan.

According to the anchor of Bosideng's Douyin official flagship store, a long down jacket that retailed for about 1,600 yuan last year, with the "6.18" coupon of 60 yuan off for purchases over 500 yuan, is now only 839 yuan, almost half of the original price. Some consumers also shared screenshots of their purchases of down jackets on social platforms, showing that a Bosideng short down jacket that originally cost 1,014 yuan actually cost only 417 yuan.

At the "discounted price", consumers are also rushing to buy down jackets in the off-season. The YaYa Tmall flagship store shows that more than 1,000 people have added and purchased a celebrity-style down jacket for 399 yuan in one week. According to FeiGua data, the number of viewers in a live broadcast of the YaYa Douyin outlet flagship store reached 560,000, and the live broadcast sales reached 250,000 to 500,000 yuan. Among them, the short down jacket for women priced at 168 yuan had the highest sales, with more than 2,500 pieces.

In fact, down jacket brands and merchants have long reached a consensus that off-season is almost as important as seasonal marketing. On the production side, down jacket manufacturers will not stop production due to off-season. "We started making down jackets in April. Now we purchase several thousand pieces each time for the store, and they are selling very well." A Shandong garment processing factory manager said on his personal social account.

"The cost of down is a bit high this year, so the price of down jackets will definitely be higher, but now is the off-season, so it is relatively not that expensive." said the above person in charge. According to him, in April this year, the price of 90% white duck down was 390,000 yuan/ton, which rose to 470,000 yuan/ton in May and further rose to 540,000 yuan/ton in June.

source | 中国商报

Statistics on down and feather exports from major provinces and cities in May 2024 - record highs

According to Chinese customs data, in May 2024, Anhui Province ranked first in the country in terms of down and feather exports, setting a 16-month high for the province.

In that month, Anhui Province exported 1,484 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 29%; the export value was 168 million yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 44%.

In May 2024, Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country in terms of exports of down and feathers, setting a 21-month high for the province.

In that month, Zhejiang Province exported 1,421 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 29%; the export value was 216 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%.

In May 2024, Jiangsu Province exported 282 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 36% year-on-year; the export value was 58 million yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. The province's down and feather exports have fallen sharply for two consecutive months.

In May 2024, Guangdong Province exported 233 tons of down and feathers, an increase of 114% over the same period last year; the export value was 27 million yuan, an increase of 71% over the same period last year.

In May 2024, Shanghai exported 145 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 207%; the export value was 55 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 418%.

In that month, the export of down and feathers in Guangdong and Shanghai increased significantly. In terms of export volume, Guangdong Province hit a new high in the past two years, while Shanghai hit a new high in 41 months.

Bad News This Week

Heilongjiang Province promotes rapid growth in commercial goose output

As one of the three major poultry in our country, geese have a relatively weak presence. In terms of production, our country's broiler output will reach 13 billion in 2023, and the output of meat ducks will also reach 4.2 billion, while the output of commercial geese will be only more than 500 million. In recent years, the output and stock of geese have been relatively stable, and there has been no rapid growth momentum.

However, it was learned from the Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs that in 2023, Heilongjiang Province will produce 39 million geese, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with an output value of about 4.3 billion yuan. Since 2023, 11 goose industry investment contracts have been signed in the province, with a total investment of 1.958 billion yuan and an average investment of 178 million yuan.

In recent years, the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has vigorously developed the goose industry based on its industrial foundation and resource advantages, and jointly with relevant departments has successively issued the "Heilongjiang Goose Industry Revitalization Action Plan" and "Heilongjiang Province Several Policy Measures to Promote the High-Quality Development of the Goose Industry" to promote the integrated development of goose breeding, breeding, slaughtering and processing in the province.

In the next step, the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will work with relevant departments to further promote the integrated development of the goose industry, striving to achieve an annual output of more than 44 million commercial geese in the province and a business income of more than 5.5 billion yuan in the goose industry by 2024; by 2025, the annual output of commercial geese in the province will be more than 50 million, and the business income of the goose industry will be more than 10 billion yuan.

source | 冰城+客户端

News Situation

本周消息面，利好多于利空。

厄尔尼诺事件的结束和拉尼娜事件的可能到来，将对羽绒行业产生重要影响。当前，厄尔尼诺带来的高温干旱影响了羽绒原材料的生产和供应，且进一步影响羽绒的市场价格。而拉尼娜现象通常会使冷空气更容易南下，导致中国冬季的气温偏低。

从武汉汉正街和各电商平台的数据来看，羽绒服的市场需求依然强劲。汉正街的订货季表现出色，显示出汉派男装在羽绒服品类上的影响力。同时，反季节销售成为重要的营销节点，推动了羽绒服的销量增长。

海关数据表明，2024年5月我国主要省市的羽绒羽毛出口屡创新高，尤其是安徽、浙江、广东和上海等地的出口量和出口金额均有显著增长。这表明国际市场对中国羽绒羽毛产品的需求仍然强劲。

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