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Market Weekly Report | Suppliers need to deliver goods, down prices rise again; down jacket OEM picks up, brands drive order growth

2024-06-16 来源：金绒浏览量：906

Summary

In the 24th week of 2024 (June 10-June 16), the market generally rose.

Recently, due to the need for delivery by suppliers of some clothing brands, the orders for finished down have loosened, and the price of raw down has also risen again, but the demand for down in the market is still insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. On the other hand, the market is still affected by the situation of "shortage of raw materials and tight supply", and the price of raw materials is difficult to fall.

Extremely hot weather has attracted global attention this year. Climate experts predict that the temperature in most parts of our country this summer will be higher than the same period in previous years, especially in North China, East China, Central China, South China and Xinjiang. This high temperature weather also poses a severe challenge to the duck farming industry in Shandong and Hebei, and the production efficiency of egg ducks and meat ducks may decline.

As the US dollar index hit a new high, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the 7.27 mark. However, the RMB still showed a trend of "depreciation against the US dollar and appreciation against a basket of currencies", which may lead to an increase in China's exports to the United States, but a decrease in exports to non-US countries.

Good news this week

Import and export growth accelerated further in May, and clothing and textile exports rebounded significantly

The General Administration of Customs announced on June 7 that in the first five months, our country's total import and export value of goods trade was 17.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with exports of 9.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.1%; imports of 7.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.4%; and a trade surplus of 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.

In May, the total value of imports and exports was 3.71 trillion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, and the monthly growth rate further accelerated. Among them, exports were 2.15 trillion yuan, up 11.2%; imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, up 5.2%. The trade surplus was 586.4 billion yuan.

Lv Daliang, Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that since the beginning of this year, my country's economic operation has continued to recover and improve, and the positive momentum of foreign trade has continued to consolidate. Driven by the good export momentum of high-end, intelligent and green products and the steady expansion of import scale, the monthly import and export growth rate has further accelerated.

Zhao Ping, spokesperson for the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that at present, China's exports of electromechanical products such as integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships have maintained strong growth, and exports of labor-intensive products such as clothing and textiles have also rebounded significantly. The recovery of overseas manufacturing has boosted China's exports of intermediate products. In addition, the strong increase in exports is also related to the low base of the same period last year.

Experts believe that from the beginning of this year to the second quarter, the continued recovery of external demand has supported China's export performance, and the month-on-month growth momentum of exports has been relatively stable, which may promote the continued recovery of overall exports in the future. A survey recently released by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade shows that 81.6% of the surveyed Chinese foreign trade companies predict that exports will improve or remain the same in the first half of the year.

In addition, in the first five months, our country's total exports of textiles and clothing to the world totaled 822.91 billion yuan, up 4.8%. Among them, textile exports totaled 405.82 billion yuan, up 6.1%; clothing and clothing accessories exports totaled 417.09 billion yuan, up 3.5%. In May, textile exports totaled 91.52 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year; clothing exports totaled 94.07 billion yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year.

source | 金绒采编自海关总署、上观新闻

Entering the peak season, the revenue of down jacket OEM manufacturers shows signs of hope

Quang Viet, a major down jacket OEM, announced that its monthly consolidated revenue in May 2024 was 1.343 billion yuan. As it entered the peak shipping season, its revenue increased by 38% compared with the previous month. Quang Viet has now entered the peak shipping season and is operating at full capacity. Its operations are expected to resume positive growth in the second half of the year.

Wu Chaobi pointed out that as customer inventory adjustments are nearing completion and the trough has passed, the peak season will begin in May and the order situation is expected to pick up quickly and be operated at full capacity. The current order visibility is through September, and the Chinese market is recovering and consumption momentum continues to increase.

In addition, Guangyue is also in talks with other new brand customers, and recently obtained the brand customer Adidas to develop styles for the 2026 Winter Olympics. The overall operating outlook is viewed cautiously.

Entering the traditional peak shipping season, KWONG LUNG, a major down jacket OEM manufacturer, achieved revenue of 972 million yuan in May, a significant increase of 62.2% from the previous month, but remained the same as last year.

Among Guanglong's revenue in May, garments increased by 128.1% month-on-month, followed by down raw materials, which increased by 40.1% month-on-month; revenue in the first five months was 3.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, but the decline has been narrowing month by month.

Kwong Lung is optimistic that as the growth momentum of its three major product lines recovers, its quarterly revenue is expected to return to growth from the second quarter, and the growth rate will be even stronger in the second half of the year, with the goal of achieving double-digit growth for the full year.

source | 中时新闻网

U.S. container imports rose strongly in May, with imports from China rebounding sharply

Data from the U.S. research firm Descartes showed that U.S. container imports continued to grow strongly in May 2024, reaching 2.346 million TEUs, a 6.2% month-on-month increase from April and an 11.9% increase compared to the same period last year.

The data suggests that the U.S. economy remains strong in May 2024. Port delays continue to improve across the board as the Panama drought and Middle East conflict have little impact on imports from the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico, but geopolitical conflicts are still escalating and expanding, and there are signs that the risk of global supply chain disruptions remains high due to upcoming labor negotiations.

The June logistics indicators tracked by Descartes showed that imports from China were strong again in May, reaching the second highest level since January 2023. Imports from China rebounded to 891,000 TEU in May, 11.3% lower than the peak in August 2022 and a sharp increase of 17.6% from April.

The largest declines were still in consumer-oriented goods, such as HS-94 (furniture, bedding, etc.) and HS-39 (plastics and their products). In May, China accounted for 38.0% of total U.S. container imports, up 3.7% from April, but still 3.5% lower than the high of 41.5% in February 2022.

source | 航运界

There is a rare deviation between the price increase of the down industry and the PPI

Since the beginning of this year, the number of industries with "price increases" has increased significantly, but the PPI inflation readings have been relatively stable, which is a rare deviation between the two.

In the upstream link, there are mainly two categories of industries that have seen the most price increases since the beginning of the year. One category is due to the transmission of price increases of globally priced bulk commodities, and the other category is due to price increases due to limited production capacity and shrinking supply.

The weight of consumer manufacturing in PPI is about 20%. Although it includes 65 sub-industries, the largest number, in fact, prices in nearly half of the industries have risen since the beginning of the year. The reasons for the price increase mainly include three categories, namely, the transmission of price increases from upstream, overseas inventory replenishment to drive exports, and the recovery of domestic demand.

The rise in upstream raw material prices has led to price increases in some downstream consumer manufacturing links where cost transmission is relatively smooth, such as papermaking, chemical raw materials (vitamins, penicillin, etc.), chemical fibers, down, cotton spinning, etc. Since the beginning of this year, external demand has been an important support for the rise in mid- and downstream manufacturing prices, but the pull of domestic demand on price levels is gradually spreading to more areas.

source | 金融界

Analysis of duck industry market in early June 2024

Due to the hot weather, the feeding and egg laying of breeding ducks have both decreased. In addition, they have been culled and molted in the early stage. It is expected that the average daily output of chicks will decrease slightly in the future.

Driven by the purchase and storage, second breeding and festivals, the supply of pork in the market has been tight recently, and the price of live pigs has risen rapidly. However, duck consumption continues to be weak, and the increase in slaughterhouses' pre-holiday stocking is lower than expected. Distributors and traders are cautious in taking goods due to operating losses. In the short term, the Dragon Boat Festival will provide limited support.

According to recent market information, although shipments have improved, the overall demand in the terminal market is expected to be weak after the holidays, which has led to dealers at all levels being cautious in purchasing goods and a strong wait-and-see mood. Currently, most of them are focusing on digesting their own inventory. At present, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing goods is not high and the purchase rhythm is based on the use. The profit and loss are mainly based on market willingness.

At present, the main large duck producing areas in the north have entered a period of high temperature weather, which will provide obvious price support for large-sized white-striped ducks in the future. In addition, market dealers have limited large-sized stocks, so there are good expectations for large-sized white-striped ducks in the future.

source | 佳合集团营销中心

News situation

This week's news has more positives than negatives.

Data from the General Administration of Customs show that exports of textiles and clothing rebounded in May 2024. This is a positive signal for the export of down products, especially down clothing. As the global economy gradually recovers, China's export demand for intermediate products and labor-intensive products will increase, and the down industry is expected to benefit from it.

From the financial reports of Guangyue and Guanglong, we can see that the revenue of down jacket OEM enterprises has increased significantly. In particular, Guangyue's orders quickly recovered after entering the peak season, and the production line was running at full capacity. This shows that the demand for down jackets in the international market is increasing, especially the cooperation with brand customers has further promoted the growth of orders.

Although PPI is relatively stable, the down industry, as part of the downstream consumer manufacturing industry, is also affected by the transmission of upstream price increases, and prices have risen. This price increase trend will put some pressure on the production cost and sales price of down products, but it also reflects the strong market demand.

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