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Market Weekly Report | Down prices are high, and wait-and-see sentiment is rising in the industry; foreign trade exports exceed expectations again, and imports from developed countries provide support

2024-06-09 来源：金绒浏览量：1856

Summary

The market conditions in the 23rd week of 2024 (June 3-June 9) were generally stable.

With the increase in the settlement price of duck feathers, the prices of raw feathers and raw down are still rising. However, given that the price of down is at a historical high, the industry is operating cautiously and the wait-and-see sentiment is rising. At present, the market is still in a state of "shortage of feathers and tight supply", and it is difficult for the price of raw materials to fall.

Some weaving enterprises have reported that autumn and winter fabrics are hot again recently, which shows that the textile and clothing industry has high expectations for the market in the second half of the year. According to statistics, winter goods have entered the off-season sales boom since May, and the transaction volume of down jackets will increase in early June.

China's foreign trade exports exceeded expectations again in May, with the growth rate jumping to double digits. Analysts believe that the recovery of imports from developed countries not only directly boosts our country's exports, but also boosts production in emerging countries, which accelerate imports of intermediate products from my country, all of which support my country's exports.

Good news this week

After the blood transfusion, Metersbonwe hopes to be the first to open up the down jacket segment

In 2024, Metersbonwe (hereinafter referred to as "Metersbonwe") returns to the "Zhou Chengjian era". This entrepreneur who has been "retired" for 7 years sends a signal to the outside world that he will lead Metersbonwe back to its peak.

After the change of blood, Metersbonwe stood on the new battlefield. Zhou Chengjian targeted the subdivided tracks of apparel live streaming, namely sun protection clothing, windbreakers, and down jackets. He hoped to open them up first and then expand to other categories.

In a previous interview, Zhou Chengjian mentioned the mistakes of Metersbonwe in jackets, down jackets, jeans and other categories, and especially lamented that down jackets were not well made. Metersbonwe's sales in 2012 were more than 10 billion yuan (the financial report showed that the revenue that year was about 9.5 billion yuan), 40% of which came from down jackets. Its down jackets are very well known, but in the past ten years, the proportion of this category has been decreasing, and no serious research has been done.

In January this year, Zhou Chengjian published a letter to all suppliers on his WeChat account "Meibangren". In the letter, Zhou Chengjian criticized Meibang for "abnormal product quality", "abnormal cost", "abnormal delivery time" and "the company's purchasing staff had two problems with purchase orders and fund settlement", and called on supply chain partners to support its reform.

In May this year, the supply chain reform has begun to show results. Zhou Chengjian and other management said at the Meibang 2023 performance briefing that "the supply chain problem has been effectively solved, and the company will continue to optimize the cooperation in quality supply, efficiency supply, and product value supply.

At present, Zhou Chengjian is trying to tell a brand new business story. He proposed that Meibang should achieve full profitability within this year and put forward the vision of "returning to 10 billion". He also set a deadline for the 10 billion goal - "If there is no effect in three years, there will be no effect in five years."

source | 时代周报

Vigorously develop the white goose industry, and the demand for goose down processing is strong

近年来，舒兰市以发展白鹅养殖为切入点，瞄准“鹅经济”，确定打造“中国最大的白鹅养殖县、最大的白鹅产业园区和世界高品质白鹅绒生产基地”发展目标。

In 2023, the number of Shulan white geese raised exceeded 10 million, making it the largest county in the province in terms of white goose breeding. These white geese are sold well locally, and the annual output of washed goose down by a local goose down manufacturer alone has reached more than 800 tons.

However, Jiang Guodong, the head of the down processing company, said that they need goose feathers from about 35 million geese as raw materials every year, and the local geese in Shulan are far from enough to meet their needs, so the goose feathers mainly come from the three northeastern provinces.

Fresh goose down is washed and sorted several times before being divided into different grades. The quality of these downs is different, and the price is naturally different. Jiang Guodong said that this mainly depends on the fluffiness. The higher the fluffiness, the better the quality of the down.

In the definition of GB/T 17685-2016 "Down and Feathers", fluffiness refers to "the volume occupied by a certain amount of down and feather samples under a specified pressure in a container of a certain diameter." Jiang Guodong said that it mainly depends on the height of the down supported by the pressure plate.

He finally revealed that according to the current market conditions, ordinary goose down is about 700,000 yuan per ton, and the highest grade can reach 1.2 million to 1.3 million yuan per ton.

source | 央视财经

Seizing the popularity of ice and snow tourism, Heilongjiang accelerates the layout of down jacket industry

Goose down is highly fluffy and warm, making it the most popular down material in the world. Currently, the global production of goose down is about 50,000 tons, of which 40,000 tons are produced in my country. Due to the short supply of products, the market price has always been strong.

According to research and statistics from the Goose Industry Branch of the Heilongjiang Animal Husbandry Association, the average annual output of commercial geese in the province is about 40 million. If all of them are processed locally, about 1,200 tons of high-quality goose down can be produced, and the output value created will be considerable.

In January 2024, a netizen left a message suggesting that Harbin take advantage of the ice and snow cultural tourism boom to create a high-end down jacket brand "Northeast", which then kicked off a carnival of online suggestions and advice. Heilongjiang did not disappoint, and at the Harbin Trade Fair held not long ago, Goose Commander launched more than 60 down jackets.

In order to seize the popularity of Harbin's ice and snow tourism, Goose Commander invested another 60 million yuan this year to expand the second phase, equipping 4 internationally advanced hanging intelligent down jacket production lines, with an annual output of 300,000 down jackets and 10,000 down quilts, with an output value of 300 million yuan. The first thing to do in the second phase of the project is to rush to complete the 11 clothing orders signed with Georgian Airlines.

Heilongjiang Sante Textile and Garment Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. is also accelerating the layout of the down jacket industry. It is currently renovating idle factories and plans to start production in October this year. After the production is put into operation, part of the production line will be used for OEM, and the other part will produce the original independent brand "Sante". The brand design and registration have been completed.

Another company planning to develop its own brand is Wangkui Yuqi Garment Co., Ltd. As a down jacket OEM enterprise, the company is currently in full production, with an estimated order of about 300,000 pieces this year. It hopes to speed up the creation of its own brand and let more people in Longjiang wear Longjiang down jackets.

source | 黑龙江日报

Bad news this week

In April this year, Anhui's imports of down and feathers hit a record high

According to Chinese customs data, in April this year, my country imported 4,431.9 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year increase of 55%; the import value was 281 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105%.

Among them, Anhui's import volume and import value of down and feathers ranked first in the country, and both set new historical records. In that month, Anhui Province imported 1,181.8 tons, an increase of 125% year-on-year; the import value was RMB 87 million, an increase of 163% year-on-year.

Since March last year, Guangxi has successfully expanded its down and feather imports by improving port handling capabilities, enhancing customs efficiency and strengthening cooperation with foreign suppliers. It has ranked first in the country's down and feather import share for 13 consecutive months.

Under the current high price of down, Anhui has surpassed Guangxi, reflecting Anhui's increasing competitiveness in the domestic down industry, which may have an impact on the entire domestic down market.

First, it ensures the supply of raw materials, speeds up production efficiency, and promotes product innovation and quality improvement. In addition, more importers and foreign partners begin to pay attention to the Anhui market, enhancing international cooperation opportunities and bringing more development opportunities to local enterprises.

At present, the domestic down prices continue to be at a historical high, mainly due to the dual influence of tight supply and rising raw material costs. Since down is a key raw material for warm clothing and home textiles, its price increase directly affects the cost structure and product pricing of the entire textile industry.

source| 金绒采编，数据来自海关

Insufficient effective demand, manufacturing PMI returned to contraction range in May

On May 31, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's official manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) was 49.5% in May, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month (the same below), and the manufacturing industry's business climate has declined.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium and small enterprises was 49.4% and 46.7%, down 1.3 and 3.6 percentage points from the previous month.

From the perspective of classification indexes, among the five classification indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index and employee index are below the critical point.

Among them, the production index was 50.8%, down 2.1 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating that the production of manufacturing enterprises continued to expand; the supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, down 0.3 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry has slightly accelerated.

In addition, the new order index was 49.6%, down 1.5 percentage points, indicating that the market demand for manufacturing has slowed down; the raw material inventory index was 47.8%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry has decreased; the employee index was 48.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating that the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises has slightly recovered.

Senior statistician Zhao Qinghe explained that in May, the manufacturing industry's business climate declined due to factors such as a high base formed by the rapid growth of the manufacturing industry in the previous period and insufficient effective demand, while my country's overall economic output continued to expand and enterprises' production and operation activities maintained a recovery and development trend.

source | 国家统计局

US ISM manufacturing index continued to shrink in May, with input costs rising for manufacturers

On June 3, data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that U.S. manufacturing activity shrank at a faster pace in May, output was close to stagnation, and the order index fell by the largest amount in nearly two years.

In May, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI index fell by 0.5 points to 48.7 (50 is the dividing line between prosperity and recession). In March, the US ISM Manufacturing Index unexpectedly reached 50.3, ending 16 consecutive months of manufacturing contraction. At present, it seems that the expansion achieved in a single month is only a flash in the pan.

In terms of important sub-indices, the new orders index was 45.4, a further drop from 49.1 in April, the largest monthly drop since June 2022. The order index is currently at its lowest level in a year, indicating that demand in the overall US economy is weakening.

Analysts said the latest US ISM manufacturing data showed that the US manufacturing industry is struggling to find momentum due to high borrowing costs, limited corporate equipment investment and weak consumer spending. At the same time, producers are coping with rising input costs.

Garment, leather and related products (including down products) industry report: New orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, inventory, customer inventory, raw material prices, backlog orders, new export orders and imports have not changed. This indicates that the future prosperity of the industry is neutral.

On the other hand, U.S. textile mills maintained their expansionary trend in May. Textile mills reported a decline in new orders in their industry, slower supplier deliveries, higher inventories, excessive customer inventories, higher raw material prices, orderly growth in order backlogs, and increased imports.

source | ISM、华尔街见闻

News situation

This week's news is mixed with both positive and negative news, and the market trend is still unclear.

During the 22nd week (May 27-June 2), the industry estimates that the number of ducklings produced will increase slightly to an average of about 11.4 million ducks per day, and will show a slow growth trend in the later period. The current number of ducklings produced will also increase slowly in the future, which may lead to a slight increase in the supply of duck feathers.

Anhui's down feather import volume and import value hit a record high, indicating that China's down industry still has strong demand for raw materials. It also directly improved the raw material supply capacity of local textile companies, enabling them to better meet the market demand for high-quality down products.

The decline of China's manufacturing PMI and the continued contraction of the US ISM manufacturing index both show that the global manufacturing environment is facing pressure, which affects many fields including the down industry. The instability of the supply chain, the increase in raw material costs and the decrease in consumer demand may have a negative impact on the production and sales of down products.

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