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Weekly Market Report | The "strong" exports may continue, boosting the down market to rise sharply; Pinghu orders hit a new high, showing strong market growth momentum

2024-05-18 来源：金绒浏览量：1350

Summary

In the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.19), the market generally rose, with goose down experiencing a larger increase.

On the 17th, the State Council Information Office introduced the performance of the national economy in April, in which the industrial export delivery value continued to rebound, driving the textile industry to recover. A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce previously stated that driven by factors such as inventory digestion and demand recovery, China's imports and exports from traditional markets have turned from decline to increase, with the EU increasing by 3.3% and the United States increasing by 6.2%.

Boosted by foreign trade orders, the down market has fluctuated sharply recently. Since the output of goose and duck feathers in the south this year has decreased by about 10% compared with last year, the market for gray goose down and gray duck down, which are mainly exported, has increased strongly, further narrowing the price gap with white goose and white duck down.

However, the downstream domestic product market is still not prosperous enough, finished velvet is still in a state of destocking, and the price game between supply and demand continues. Domestic clothing autumn and winter order fairs are being carried out one after another, and it can be expected that orders for finished cashmere products will increase month by month.

Good news this week

Down jacket OEM boom is delayed, and operations will get better in the second half of the year

Quang Viet, a major manufacturer of functional apparel and down jackets, announced its first quarter consolidated financial report on May 9, with a net loss of 116 million yuan, while its single-month consolidated revenue in April 2024 was 972 million yuan, a decrease of 22.81% from the same period last year.

Wu Chaobi, chairman of Guangyue, said that the operating performance in the first quarter of this year declined compared with the same period last year, mainly because the operation was still affected by customer inventory adjustments; and the consolidated operation in April was also affected by customer shipping schedule adjustments, and some products were delayed. Due to the impact of subsequent shipments, revenue decreased slightly compared with the same period last year.

However, Wu Chaobi pointed out that as the inventory adjustment of customers is coming to an end, the bottom has passed, and the peak season will begin in May. The order situation is expected to recover quickly, and full production capacity will be opened. The current order visibility has reached September, and recently it has also acquired brand customers Adidas The development styles for the 2026 Winter Olympics and the overall operating outlook will be viewed with caution.

The consolidated revenue of KWONG LUNG, a major down jacket OEM, in the first four months reached 2.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9% compared with the same period last year. The consolidated revenue in April was 599 million yuan, a monthly decrease of 12.4% and an annual decrease of 3.8%.

Guanglong analyzed that the main reason for the decrease in the ready-made garment department was that some shipments were postponed to the following month due to customers adjusting shipping schedules. However, the performance of the down raw materials and home textile departments was extraordinary, with both growing by more than 20%. At the same time, Guanglong's outlook for second-quarter performance to be better than last year remains unchanged, and the annual growth rate will also turn to positive growth.

Global climate warming has delayed the prosperity of down-related industries. As down apparel factories’ inventory adjustments have been prolonged, order momentum has been slow to recover. The market expects that the operations of down apparel factories will not really pick up until the end of the second quarter or the third quarter, and the operating performance in the second half of the year will show significant growth compared with the first half.

source | 中时新闻网、财讯快报

The "strong" exports may continue, and the growth rate of U.S. imports from China is increasing.

Since the beginning of the year, the CCFI (China Export Container Freight Rate) index has rebounded significantly. In early May, the index rose further, with the year-on-year increase expanding to 29.5%. As a "barometer" of the shipping market, this index can better reflect my country's export prosperity, and is slightly ahead of the year-on-year export value.

In early May, my country's port cargo throughput also increased significantly, which may indicate that the export volume is still growing.Affected by the "dislocation" factor during the Spring Festival, the year-on-year growth rate of port cargo throughput this year fell back in March, but has increased significantly since April. In the first week of May, the port's cargo throughput rose to 264.54 million tons, a significant increase of 16.1% over the same period last year.

Against the background of the easing of financial conditions in the United States, the demand for restocking has rebounded, which has directly boosted my country's exports. Since 2023, financial conditions in the United States have become looser, which has led to an improvement on the demand side. Some industries have started to replenish their inventories, and their import growth rate has also increased, while the growth rate of China's exports to the United States has rebounded almost simultaneously.

In April 2024, the volume of containers imported by the United States from mainland China increased by 6.73% compared with March this year, but fell by 1.81% compared with March 2023. Among them, the top one is "furniture; bedding, mattresses, mattress supports, cushions and similar stuffed furniture" etc. Tam's export volume was 173,496 TEUs, a decrease from 184,567 TEUs in April 2023, with a year-on-year change rate of -6.00%.

Clothing products once again showed some downward trends in April 2024. For example, the 13th-ranked product category (61 chapters) involving "clothing and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted" fell by 18.48% year-on-year.

The product category (Chapter 67) involving "feathers and down, processed; articles made of feathers or down; artificial flowers; human hair products" decreased by 1.60% year-on-year.

The current development pressure on the duck breeding industry is unprecedented, and the number of egg-laying ducks has declined seriously.

The time has arrived in the second quarter of 2024, which has also entered the Beginning of Summer solar term, and many changes have taken place in the entire breeding industry. From the number of various animals raised, the sales of feed in feed mills, and the slaughter volume and shipment volume of slaughterhouses, etc., all aspects of information and data show that the pressure this year is unprecedented.

Among them, the market for broiler ducks was good in the first half of 2023, and practitioners were very profitable. However, since August, due to the increase in the number of ducklings and the decline in consumption, ducklings have begun to decline on a large scale. , and the slaughterhouse had a backlog of products and did not reach the expected sales volume and price, and both suffered serious losses. Consumption before the Spring Festival is also very pessimistic. Especially in the twelfth lunar month, consumption has continued to decline instead of increasing.

At the same time, from December 18, 2023 to mid-February of 2024, as Shandong was affected by five large-scale extreme cold weather with cooling and snowfall, coupled with the low price of ducklings before February, some breeding farms with poor conditions will eliminate breeding ducks with low egg-laying performance prematurely, causing the number of ducklings to decrease rapidly.

On the other hand, due to the low temperature in the spring of 2024, there are more diseases in breeding ducks, resulting in a lower egg production rate and a reduction in the number of ducklings, especially in southwestern Shandong, which affects about 20% of the egg production rate.

In late January 2024, the price of duck seedlings began to reach a range of more than 2 yuan, and currently the price of duck seedlings is hovering around 3.7 yuan. At present, duck breeding companies with high production performance are companies with better breeding conditions, better biosecurity and management levels, and these companies can maintain the egg production rate above 95%, while the duckling cost is controlled below 2.5 .

According to statistics before and after the Spring Festival in 2024, the number of egg-laying ducks in Henan is about 22 million; as of March 2024, the number of eggs in Anshan, Liaoning, has dropped by about 30% compared with the same period last year. The population decline in Shandong is particularly severe. As of March 24, the population of laying ducks in Shandong was approximately 2-3 million.

source | 家禽信息PIB 徐高峰

Pinghu down jacket is popular again, sales exceeded 55 million on the first day of the order fair

On May 13, the 2024 Pinghu·China Garment City May Original Strictly Selected Down Jackets Joint Ordering Fair officially opened, attracting more than 3,000 buyers from all over the country to negotiate orders.

At this ordering meeting, local original down jacket brands such as Ai Mengxue, Legend, and Huaji launched their own-designed annual new down jackets. Tens of thousands of fashionable and cost-effective original new down jackets have been unveiled to buyers across the country. Among them, simplicity and new Chinese style have become the new development routes of many original merchants.

At the ordering meeting, buyers and sellers expressed their satisfaction with the down jacket products at this ordering meeting and actively placed orders. As of 17:00 on May 13, sales on the first day of the trade fair exceeded 55 million.

It is understood that the 2024 Pinghu·China Garment City May Original Strictly Selected Down Jackets Joint Order Fair will remain open until May 15. It is expected that the number of buyers participating in the event will increase significantly compared with previous years.

source | 平湖发布

Bad news this week

April is the hottest month! The world has broken high temperature records for the same month for 11 consecutive months

According to data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, last month's global temperature was the highest on record in April, marking the 11th consecutive month that global high temperature records have been set for the same month.

In April 2024, the global average surface temperature was 15.03 degrees Celsius, 0.14 degrees Celsius higher than the record set in April 2016. This means that the global average temperature in April 2024 is 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial benchmark of the same period between 1850 and 1900.

Additionally, global average temperatures over the past 12 months were also the highest on record, 1.6 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.

A La Niña phenomenon is likely to form and develop in the second half of this year. This means cold water will spread into the Atlantic Ocean and cool surface air, causing global surface temperatures to temporarily drop.

source | 中国科学报

News situation

This week’s news is more positive than negative.

During the 19th week (5.6-5.12), the industry estimates that the number of duck seedlings has stabilized at an average of about 11.3 million birds per day, and will show an increase in the later period. The current number of hatchlings will correspond to a corresponding increase in the number of meat ducks sold in the future, which may lead to a slight increase in the supply of duck feathers.

Although major down OEMs have experienced double-digit declines in revenue in the first four months of this year, they still expect that after entering the peak season in May, as customers adjust shipping schedules, down jacket orders are expected to recover quickly, and operations in the second half of the year will be better than the same period last year.

On May 15, the 2024 Pinghu·China Garment City May Original Strictly Selected Down Jacket Joint Order Fair concluded successfully, and the total sales exceeded 210 million, setting a record high, showing the strong growth momentum of the down jacket market. According to the market performance of this trade fair, the annual sales of Pinghu down jackets this year are expected to reach a new high.

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