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Weekly Market Report | The situation of the supply of raw materials and down is tight continues, and the down market is on the rise again; the world situation is in turmoil, and the export trade is "jumping up and down"

2024-04-21 来源：金绒浏览量：1561

Summary

In the 16th week of 2024 (4.15-4.21), the market generally rose, with goose down experiencing a larger increase.

The market is still in a state of the supply of raw materials and down is tight recently, and the price of raw materials is difficult to fall. However, with the increase in orders and stockings from washing plants, the market for down has risen again.

Stimulated by stocking up before May Day, various duck product manufacturers' orders and market shipments have performed well. The optimistic momentum supports the continuous slight upward trend of duck slaughtering manufacturers. However, the number of ducklings nationwide is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, and the overall supply is unlikely to change.

Recently, the U.S. dollar has caused a headache for non-U.S. currencies. The Japanese yen, Korean won, Indonesian rupiah, and Thai baht have all fallen sharply. However, the RMB still shows strong resilience due to continued improvement in economic fundamentals. However, this situation will increase the import costs of some countries, which will have a certain negative impact on our country's down exports.

Good news this week

In the first quarter, imports and exports hit a record high for the same period in history, but the situation “jumped up and down”

According to customs statistics, in the first quarter of 2024, calculated in RMB (the same below), the total value of our country's import and export of goods trade exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time in history during the same period, reaching 10.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% (the same below). Among them, exports were 5.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9%; imports were 4.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 5%.

In March this year, our country's total import and export value was 3.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. Among them, exports were 1.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%; the trade surplus was 415.86 billion yuan.

Lu Daliang, director of the Statistical Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that from the numerical point of view, the export growth rate has indeed slowed down compared with previous years, but it is also important to see that our country's exports have reached a new high on a high base. Not only Achieved reasonable growth in volume and maintained overall stability in share.

The export situation has turned sharply downward from a good start in January-February.Experts believe that from a seasonal point of view, the March export amount compared to February rebound is not bad, and March is affected by the base is higher than other months, so only from a single month year-on-year decline to evaluate the quality of March data is not objective.

Looking forward to the second quarter, experts believe that as the high base effect weakens, the year-on-year decline in exports in April is expected to narrow significantly. At the same time, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in March recovered to above 50%, especially the new export orders index and new orders index, both showing that the recovery of exports was a blowout improvement.

In addition, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing in the first quarter were 468.39 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%, of which textile exports were 228.09 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1%, and clothing exports were 240.3 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. However, textile and clothing exports in March were only 147.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%. Among them, textile exports were 73.77 billion yuan, down 14.4%, and clothing exports were 74.12 billion yuan, down 15.4%.

source | 金绒采编自海关总署、华尔街见闻

The Harbin "Northern Border" down jackets mentioned by netizens are here, and 100,000 pieces will be prepared in advance

In early January this year, a short video "Netizens suggested that Harbin build a down jacket brand" went viral on the Internet. Many netizens suggested that Harbin build local cold area clothing brands such as "NORTHEAST" and "Beijing". Now, the thing that netizens are worried about has actually "come to fruition".

Located in the Sino-Korean Industrial Park, Nienjiatun, Juren Town, Bin County, Harbin City, tower cranes are towering and excavators continue to work... In another two months, a modern down jacket processing plant of 6,600 square meters will be completed, and it is expected that in October, the factory will produce and process Harbin's own brand down jackets.

Huang Xiaolan, chairman of Harbin Beijing Clothing Co., Ltd., said that the company is headquartered in Shandong and has been processing for more than ten well-known down jacket brands at home and abroad for many years. Last year, the company processed and produced more than 50,000 down jackets, of which more than 10,000 were sold in Harbin through online sales.

The Harbin Municipal Industry and Information Technology Department and the local government are also actively carrying out resource docking to accelerate the implementation of local goose down processing industry projects. At present, Heilongjiang Duiqing Goose Industry Group Co., Ltd. plans to carry out a goose down deep processing project. "We are currently negotiating cooperation with some companies in the south to introduce goose down processing-related industrial projects." Liu Junwei, general manager of Duiqing Goose Industry, said.

In February 2025, the 9th Asian Winter Games will be successfully held in Harbin. By then, the holding of the grand event will promote the development of the entire industry chain of the ice and snow economy, and will also stimulate the consumption of local winter clothing. According to the production cycle of down jackets, April to December every year is the peak season for the production of down jackets.

"For the coming peak season of ice and snow tourism, we will prepare 100,000 down jackets in advance to supply the market." Huang Xiaolan said that the Beijing Clothing Company is building a new project and is expected to be able to process 2 million pieces of various types of clothing per year. In addition to local brand down jackets, , and can also OEM other brands of down apparel at the same time.

source | 哈尔滨日报

361° order appointment increased orders by 20%

Speaking of supercritical foaming particles, it may not be unfamiliar to shoe products, but if it is applied to clothes, wouldn’t it be quite new? What effect will it have? At the 2024 Q4 ordering meeting held not long ago by 361°, a down jacket with supercritical foam particles became the "darling" of many dealers.

"The special thing about this down jacket is that we have applied supercritical foam particles to a down jacket for the first time, forming a unique 'thermal particle technology', which not only provides support for the shoulders, but also has good warmth retention and thermal energy storage effect," said Wei Shutao, director of 361° Research and Innovation Center.

He introduced that this down jacket has been iterated to the third generation. "We continue to start from ergonomics and focus on solving the problem of uneven heat distribution in the human body to give consumers the best wearing experience. "

According to securities agencies, 361°’s trade fair orders in the first three quarters of 2024 will increase by 15%/20%+/15-20% year-on-year respectively, and the company’s trade fair orders/replenishment orders will account for 90%/10% respectively. The company's revenue is expected to maintain rapid growth.

The agency believes that the results of this trade fair in a weak consumption environment reflect the company's advantages in the sports shoes and apparel track and its public positioning in line with the current trend of the consumer environment. The data from the 2024 spring, summer and autumn trade fairs have maintained rapid growth, and the company's revenue in 2024 is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan.

From January to March 2024, 361° company received part of the demand, April Qingming Festival day offline performance (water +30%), the management to maintain 24 revenue growth rate of 15-20% range, to maintain 2024 large clothing and children's clothing will be net open 100-200 stores.

source | 晋江新闻网、361度（雪球网）

Bad news this week

March is the hottest month again, and future La Niña will only cause the temperature to drop slightly.

The EU climate monitoring agency Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) recently stated that the world has just experienced the hottest March on record, which also means that global temperatures have broken the hottest record for the same period in history for ten consecutive months.

C3S added that the 12 months to March were also the hottest on record on Earth. From April 2023 to March 2024, the global average temperature will be 1.58 degrees Celsius higher than the average temperature in the pre-industrial period from 1850 to 1900.

"The main driver of climate warming is fossil fuel emissions." British climate scientists said that if these emissions cannot be reduced, the earth will continue to warm, leading to more severe droughts, fires, heat waves and heavy rains.

Other factors contributing to rising temperatures include El Niño, a climate phenomenon that causes abnormally high water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, this round of El Niño is currently weakening, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has adjusted the "El Niño Outlook" to neutral early.

On April 11 local time, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reported that El Nino has an 85 percent chance of reaching ENSO neutral in April-June, and expects a 60 percent chance of transforming into La Nina during June-August.

The forecast for April is basically unchanged from last month, but shows a slight sign that La Niña will end abruptly and return to ENSO neutral. As for whether a developing La Niña can bring global average surface temperatures back to normal levels, experts say it's unlikely, while Canada predicts only a slight drop in temperatures in the coming months.

Chinese meteorological experts and scholars also said that the decline or end of El Niño does not mean that its climate impact will disappear. Normally, the global average temperature will rise in the year following an El Niño event, and the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as heat waves, droughts and floods may increase.

Historically, the year following El Niño has been the most abnormal period for our country's summer climate. The rise in sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean and its interaction with the tropical Pacific will continue to affect our country's climate.

source | C3S、NOAA、中国气象报社

Tangyuan County is optimistic about high-grade goose down and plans to expand goose breeding

Recently, Tangyuan County has set off a new upsurge in investment promotion and project construction. The industry involves bio-economy, ice and snow economy, new materials and other fields. The number of projects, coverage areas, and investment scale have all reached record highs.

Yang Bing, deputy head of Tangyuan County government, introduced that this spring, the second phase of the Long Goose down project was also launched as scheduled, and the second phase will add a high-standard down processing workshop, domestic (international) quality inspection standard room, etc., which can produce high-grade goose down within 95% of the national standard.Yang Bing said: "The current price of high-grade goose down in the international market has increased from 700,000 yuan/ton to 1.1 million yuan/ton, and the market prospects are very promising. "

Yang Bing also said that this year, the county combed the existing available resources, fully promote the construction of Long Goose animal husbandry related industrial parks, revitalize idle schools, cattle houses, breeding areas and other resources 26440 square meters, to build six large goose farms, feed farms

Zhang Zhuang, director of Tangyuan County Economic Cooperation Center, introduced that Tangyuan County is also actively expanding the high-end market, actively providing clothing supplies for the Asian Winter meeting, planning special exhibitions with the upcoming Hafair and other exhibitions, actively carrying out fashion shows, and starting the golden sign of "good goose in Tangyuan, good down in Tangyuan".

source | 黑龙江日报

News situation

In terms of news this week, the good news slightly outweighs the bad news.

During the 15th week (4/1-4/7), the industry estimates that the number of duck seedlings will increase to an average of about 10.2 million birds per day, and will continue to increase in the future. The current number of hatchlings will correspond to a corresponding increase in the number of meat ducks sold in the future, which may lead to an increase in the supply of duck down.

Harbin's local cold-weather clothing brand "Beijing" suggested by netizens is about to be put into production. The company's chairman Huang Xiaolan said that the down jackets will be mass-produced in early July and will be on the market around October 1.

Although the current El Niño event may be coming to an end, its impact on climate will continue to be felt, and global temperatures are unlikely to drop significantly in recent months. The southern hemisphere has entered winter since late June. Obviously, down products will be extremely detrimental to the export of this region.

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