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Weekly Market Report | The world economy has begun to pick up, and foreign trade expectations are optimistic; the costs of down manufacturers have increased significantly, and the supply and demand relationship is in a dilemma

2024-04-07 来源：金绒浏览量：398

Summary

The market in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.7) is generally stable.

This week marks the Qingming Festival holiday, and down prices remain stable.After the Qingming Festival, purchases by clothing companies usually increase, and it is also more common to use gray down for proofing. However, due to the poor supply of duck feather raw materials, the cost of down factories has increased significantly, creating a dilemma in the current supply and demand relationship.

The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index for March announced on April 6 was 50.3%, ending 17 consecutive months of running below 50% and returning to the expansion range. Among them, indices such as new orders, production and foreign trade orders have increased more, reflecting that the world's total economic demand has begun to pick up.

However, experts say that geopolitical conflicts and trade restrictions are adverse factors that interfere with global economic recovery. With the economic outlook still unclear, down product companies have adopted a more conservative business strategy, while brand owners have a strong wait-and-see attitude in the face of high down prices.

Good news this week

The profit level of "leather, fur, feathers and their products and shoemaking industry" will maintain positive growth in 2024

On March 27, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to February 2024, industrial enterprises above designated size across the country achieved a total profit of 914.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Looking to the next stage, it is expected that the profits of industrial enterprises will still have a good foundation, and the profits of industrial enterprises are expected to continue to maintain positive growth.

Bloomberg of the United States said, “(This) continues the growth momentum since August last year and adds positive signs to the (Chinese) economy.”Benefiting from improved demand at home and abroad, coupled with the strong boost from the Spring Festival holiday, profits from the consumer goods manufacturing industry turned from a 1.1% decline in the previous year to a year-on-year growth of 12.9%.

Among them, "leather, fur, feather and their products and shoemaking industry" enterprises achieved operating income of 120.80 billion yuan from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; operating costs were 104.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%.

The "leather, fur, feather and their products and shoemaking industry" achieved a total profit of 5.47 billion yuan from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. From January to February, the profit levels of these industries increased significantly.

source | 金绒整理自国家统计局

The textile market is picking up, and orders for autumn and winter fabrics are rising steadily.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the profits of textile and clothing industry enterprises from January to February 2024 are as follows: The total profit of the textile industry was 6.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.1%; the total profit of the textile and clothing and apparel industry was 7.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%. It can be seen that the textile and apparel industry showed obvious recovery momentum from January to February.

Judging from company feedback, most textile companies have received new orders one after another. In particular, the increase in foreign trade orders has provided good support for order maintenance. Some fabric manufacturers not only ship goods "non-stop" during the day, but even do not stop shipping at night.

Mr. Wu, who specializes in autumn and winter fabrics, said: "Currently, our order receiving situation is not bad. The order volume has increased by about 5% compared with the beginning of the month, and the orders we can receive can last until May. "Compared with the same period in previous years, this year's order volume has increased steadily, and the later expectations are optimistic. "

Mr. Chen, who is mainly engaged in nylon spinning, said: "We mainly focus on foreign trade. Since March, foreign trade orders have performed very well. The order reception situation has improved significantly. The order volume has increased significantly compared with the same period in previous years. The performance in the traditional peak season this year is still quite good. Not bad. ”

source | 布工厂

Affected by seasonal characteristics, PMI jumped above the boom-bust line in March

On March 31, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s official manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) rose to 50.8% in March from 49.1 in February, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month and the second highest in the past year. . This is also the first time since October last year that this index has jumped above the 50% line.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 51.1%, 50.6% and 50.3% respectively, up 0.7, 1.5 and 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, all above the critical point.

From the perspective of sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employee index are lower than the critical point.

Among them, the production index was 52.2%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production activities of manufacturing enterprises have accelerated; the new orders index was 53.0%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing market demand boom level has rebounded; The supplier delivery time index was 50.6%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers has accelerated.

In addition, the raw material inventory index was 48.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry narrowed; The employment index was 48.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the employment index of manufacturing enterprises has improved.

Experts believe that in March, as companies accelerated their resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and market activity increased, the rebound in manufacturing PMI at this time had seasonal characteristics. The survey results also show that in March, enterprises still faced some outstanding problems in production and operation. For example, the proportion of enterprises reflecting intensified industry competition and insufficient market demand was still high.

source | 国家统计局

Bad news this week

The new model for importing washed feathers and down saves two-thirds of the time

"It only takes 8 days to transport goods from abroad to Guigang and complete customs clearance! The new model is 17 days faster than the traditional customs clearance model via Hong Kong! "On the evening of March 28, Yang Chaodong, general manager of Guigang Jialu Down Products Co., Ltd., said excitedly, "It has saved us two-thirds of the time, and the cost saving effect is obvious. "

That night, a truck that entered the country from Qinzhou Port and loaded with about 18.5 tons of washed white duck feathers from the company slowly drove out of the Guigang Port Customs Supervision Area. This is the first shipment of washed feathers and down in the country that has been cleared and released under the joint supervision of Qinzhou Port Customs and Guigang Customs.

The down industry is a traditional advantageous industry in Guigang City. In recent years, it has made every effort to help the down industry upgrade, and has gradually formed a complete industrial chain of primary wool separation processing, washed feather and down processing and down product processing. In 2023, the total output value of the city's down industry will reach 4.7 billion yuan.

However, about 40% of the raw materials for Guigang's down industry need to be imported from abroad. The annual import demand is 30,000 to 50,000 tons, and the procurement scope covers Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries and regions.

In order to effectively optimize the business environment, the General Administration of Customs recently issued a pilot work plan for the customs clearance supervision reform of imported washed feathers and down, aiming to optimize the customs clearance supervision operation mode of imported washed feathers and down, reduce business operating costs, and fully support the upgrading and development of the down industry in Guigang City.

Nong Zhuosong, deputy mayor of Guigang, believes that after the opening of the Pinglu Canal, the washed feathers and down imported from Guigang can be directly transferred from Qinzhou Port to the canal channel, and can reach Guigang Port in half a day. By then, it will more effectively promote the clustered development of Guigang's down industry and achieve high-quality development.

source | 贵港宣传

In the second quarter, the supply of duck industry may increase in the later period.

March has always been the traditional off-season for domestic meat consumption. In addition to the signs of rising pig prices in the livestock industry, the overall poultry market is sluggish, and the industry's negative sentiment is serious.

At the end of the first quarter, looking at the upstream and downstream of the duck industry, profits are still concentrated at the front end. Although ducklings fell 20.21% month-on-month, outsourced and self-owned hatching eggs are still within the profit range;

The price of ducks across the country fluctuates, and the northern market continues to decline slightly, and the supply of duck sources is basically flat. Market quotations in the main live poultry producing areas in the south dropped rapidly, and some markets were oversold. From a cost perspective, the profitability of the breeding side is not good. From the perspective of contract ducks, in addition to the continuous downward pressure on recycling prices, low feed ratio and high incidence of diseases in spring also limit the growth of net profit of farmers.

As we enter the second quarter, meat consumption begins to recover, boosting demand for the overall livestock industry. In addition, the Qingming Festival is approaching, the sentiment has improved slightly, and the bullish mentality in the industry is strong, while the increase in supply in the later period is the biggest challenge to prices.

source | Mysteel

The number of white geese hatched in Wanxi this year will hit a new high

Now is the peak period for the emergence of white geese in Wanxi. In the incubation workshop of Anhui Zhanyu Ecological Agriculture Development Co., Ltd., technicians monitor the temperature and humidity changes of the incubator in real time to check the hatching status of the goose eggs.

"Now the popularity of Wanxi White Goose is getting higher and higher. Not only do many people like to eat goose meat, drink goose soup, and wear goose down clothes, but this year our Wanxi White Goose chicks have also broken into a big market. Not only the province's farmers come to buy goose seedlings one after another, and now more and more customers are consulting from outside the province." Jiang Weijun, general manager of the company, said.

It is understood that with the mature breeding technology and perfect equipment of Wanxi white goose, the hatching volume of Wanxi white goose will hit a new high this year. It has increased from 35 yuan per piece in the first month to 40 yuan per piece now, and the order volume is still increasing.

"This year, people from Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Henan, Shandong and Hubei are coming to buy goose seedlings. Although the quantity is not large, there is no doubt that the young goose seedlings of our Wanxi White Goose have broken into the big market.We believe that with continued technological research and product development, Wanxi white goose industry will definitely be able to embark on a path of industrialized and high-quality development. "Jiang Weijun is full of confidence.

source | 皖西日报社

News situation

This week’s news is mixed with good news and bad news, and the market trend is still unclear.

During the 13th week (3/25-3/31), the industry estimates that the number of duck seedlings will decrease to an average of about 10.2 million birds per day, and it is likely to decrease in the future. The current number of hatchlings corresponds to a corresponding reduction in the number of meat ducks produced in the future, which may lead to a reduction in the supply of duck down.

In the first two months of this year, Guigang City's feather and down imports grew rapidly, with import value increasing by 42.2% year-on-year. At present, the down industry in Guigang City, which has begun to show its industrial cluster effect, has attracted the attention of many well-known down product companies.

China's textile and apparel industry showed a clear recovery momentum from January to February. Judging from feedback from companies, foreign trade orders have performed well since March, with order volume rising steadily. The development trend of the down market in the first half of the year depends on when foreign trade orders can increase in volume.

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