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Weekly market report | The market price is high, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong; The dollar index is strong, which may be affected

2024-03-31 来源：金绒浏览量：1625

Summary

In the 13th week of 2024 (3.25-3.31), the market price of white duck down was stable, while goose down and gray duck down fell slightly.

This week is already the last week of March, and exhibitions and orders in the textile and apparel industry chain have been relatively active recently. As March passes, clothing companies' spring down purchases may gradually recover. However, in a market environment with high down prices, it is still difficult to increase the volume of transactions, and the downstream industry has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

The supply of duck seedlings is still recovering, but the growth rate of seedlings is slow and lower than industry expectations. Reflected on duck breeding factories, the settlement price of duck feathers has also increased a lot, which means stable prices. However, down factories generally say that due to rising costs, business is difficult to do. Moreover, due to seasonal influences, the down content of raw material wool is facing a decrease.

The Bank of Japan's historic turn, the Swiss National Bank's unexpected interest rate cut, and the postponement of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve... The recent intensive releases of resolutions by central banks around the world have broken the "calm" that the RMB exchange rate had previously maintained, while the U.S. dollar index has shown strong momentum again. As warehousing costs increase in Japan and European countries, the export of down may be affected.

Good news this week

"Down bedding" export statistics from January to February - expected to recover

Duvet：

According to Chinese customs data, our country exported a total of 2,258 tons (920,000 pieces) of "down quilts" from January to February 2024, an increase of 15% year-on-year; the export value was 201 million yuan, an increase of 2% year-on-year.

In the first two months of 2024, the United States was our country's largest trading partner for "down quilt" exports, accounting for 38% of the total export volume in these two months. Germany was the second largest trading partner during the month, accounting for 10% of total exports; followed by the United Kingdom and Australia each accounting for 7%, Canada accounting for 5%, Chile, Japan and South Korea each accounting for 4%.

Other down bedding:

From January to February 2024, our country exported a total of 5,264 tons of "other down bedding", an increase of 2% over last year; the export value was 202 million yuan, a decrease of 9% over last year.

In the first two months of 2024, the United States was our country's largest trading partner for "other down bedding" exports, accounting for 47% of total exports this month. Canada was the second largest trading partner during the month, accounting for 10% of total exports; followed by the United Kingdom at 9%, Australia at 7%, and Germany and Japan at 4% each.

Down bedding (quilt + other bedding)

From January to February 2024, our country exported a total of 7,522 tons of "down bedding", an increase of 6% year-on-year; the export value was 403 million yuan, a decrease of 4% year-on-year.

People in the line believe that exports of home textile products are expected to recover faster.In 2024, although the US economy is likely to decline, demand is expected to pick up as inventory digestion comes to an end; Both the European Union and Japan are expected to grow faster in 2024 than last year. China and Thailand will be visa free from each other in March this year, and the facilitation measures will boost the demand for Chinese home textile products in ASEAN.

Source | 金绒整理自海关数据

The 2024 Everest climbing season has officially begun, and Chinese down jackets have poured into Nepal in the past two years

The ice and snow are melting, spring has returned to the earth, and it is another year of climbing season on Mount Everest. Currently, the first batch of climbers have received their Everest (Nepal side) climbing permits on March 25, and some other climbers are also applying for permits on other peaks on March 26.

On the streets of Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, shops selling down jackets and other professional equipment will reopen one after another. However, mountaineering clients will not reach the bottom of Mount Everest until the second week of April.

Or because the Nepali government decided to stop importing luxury goods including ready-made clothing in 2022, high-quality and low-priced Chinese down jackets were imported in large quantities that year, with a year-on-year increase of 90%. Although its import volume has declined in 2023, it is still 47% higher than in 2021.

Those who climb Everest through the Nepalese side pay $11,000 for a climbing permit, which can cost as much as $35,000 plus equipment, food, oxygen, guides and more.

Visitors to base camp this spring include an increasing number of family members. According to a report in the Himalayan Times, an Indian couple showed up at the base camp with their two-and-a-half-year-old child. The child's father said: "Everyone can go to the Everest South Slope Base Camp. "

Another change in mountaineering in 2024 is that one end of China’s Tibet Autonomous Region will be opened. In 2020, the three 8,000-meter peaks in the Tibet Autonomous Region were closed to foreign climbers and were not announced to be open until 2023. This year, foreign expedition companies on Everest’s North Slope will return in the spring.

source | 喜马拉雅登山论坛、海关数据

After Wuchuan's down prices increased, sales did not fall but increased.

Despite the year-on-year price increase, Wuchuan's down product sales have increased instead of decreasing since last winter to early spring. According to statistics from the domestic down industry website CN-DOWN, sales of Wuchuan's down products last winter increased by about 50% year-on-year.

It is understood that since the beginning of winter last year, due to the cold weather, the price of goose down has increased year-on-year, and the sales volume of Wuchuan down products has increased sharply. Since the beginning of spring this year, the weather has been changeable and the temperature difference between day and night is large. Many consumers have postponed their plans to buy spring clothes and purchased warm clothes out of season.

"The cost of a down jacket mainly covers three major aspects: raw materials, operations, and labor, of which raw materials account for up to about 75%. "Mr. Li, a down practitioner in Wuchuan, explained that under the "force" of the new national standard, the demand for raw materials for down jackets has increased significantly, and at the same time, prices have also increased.

Brand upgrading is also one of the reasons for the price rise. A number of down industry insiders have said: "Mainly because in the process of brand development, manufacturers need to increase the investment in improving production technology and broadening brand marketing communication channels." In this process, whether it is the scientific and technological content, quality or design level of the product has been greatly improved, so Wuchuan down can be more favored by consumers.

source | 湛江晚报

Bad news this week

Down garment import and export statistics (February) - low season

In February 2024, a total of 920,000 pieces of down clothing were exported, a decrease of 33% from January this year; the export value was 164 million yuan, a decrease of 34% from January this year.

Down jacket export list for February 2024

商品名称	数量 (万件)	人民币 (亿元)	数量同比去年	金额同比去年
棉制男羽绒服	10.3	0.15	-77.0%	-74.4%
化纤制男羽绒服	41.0	0.74	55.7%	42.7%
棉制女羽绒服	1.8	0.03	-96.3%	-95.8%
化纤制女羽绒服	39.0	0.72	17.2%	12.0%

Export situation of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export situation of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

It can be seen from past data that the export of down clothing has reached the lowest level in the off-season, and the export volume in February this year fell by 33% compared to the same period last year.

Compared with the same period in the past ten years, the overall export volume of down clothing in February this year was almost at the bottom, only better than that in 2020. The good news is that unlike last year’s massive promotion of cotton down jackets, the export volume of chemical fiber down jackets in February this year has been close to normal. Considering the constraints of the Spring Festival holiday in February this year, it may be expected that the export of down jackets will improve in the future.

In terms of imports, in February 2024, a total of 77,000 pieces of down clothing were imported, a decrease of 77% from the previous month; the import value was 128 million yuan, a decrease of 67% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

After the terrorist attack in Moscow, air tickets back home soared, and some exhibitions were suspended.

The terrorist attack at a concert hall near Moscow attracted global attention. Affected by this, air ticket prices from Russia to China have increased significantly recently. In addition, some exhibition activities to be held in the near future have been cancelled.

Some exhibitors said on the social platform that in order to March 27 to March 29 in the Ruby exhibition Hall, they invested a lot of money, the team has arrived in Moscow, the sample has been transported to the local, but after the terrorist attack, it received a notice from the local government department, the current exhibition activities have been canceled.

There were originally planned to go to Moscow in early April to participate in the building materials exhibition exhibitors said, before the international situation changes, many exhibitors from the European Union have been determined to withdraw the exhibition, so this time many Chinese exhibitors are looking forward to Moscow to promote exhibits, but many people are now hesitant to continue to go.

It is understood that after the shooting incident in Moscow, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Sichuan Airlines have successively issued a special treatment notice for Moscow routes, basically, tickets can be refunded for free within a month.

source | 南方都市报

Guangzhou is expected to break the record for the earliest summer this year

Speaking of the just past winter of 2023/2024, the first feeling of Guangzhou citizens may be "cold". Even though the overall temperature was relatively high, Guangzhou still experienced the coldest winter solstice in 73 years, with the temperature that day as low as 3.3°C.

From February 23rd to March 1st this year, the average temperatures at various national stations in Guangzhou were the lowest since the same period in 2004. If we compare these few days alone, this period of time this year is the coldest in 20 years.

The days of wearing down jackets and wrapping yourself into "zongzi" seem like yesterday. Guangzhou has been speeding towards summer recently. Data released by the Guangzhou Meteorological Department shows that the temperature in Guangzhou has gradually increased recently, and the 5-day sliding average temperature has reached 22.8°C.

According to the latest version of the "Climate Season Division" standard, if the 5-day moving average temperature sequence is ≥22°C, the first date in the corresponding daily average temperature sequence that is ≥22°C is regarded as the starting day of summer. In these recent 5-day moving average temperature series, the first date with ≥22℃ was March 23.

From the current forecast, the next period of time is not too strong cold air southward, so Guangzhou this year's summer time may be fixed in March 23, that is, the day of the world Meteorological Day, and this date is expected to break the record of Guangzhou's earliest summer.

The current record for the earliest start of summer in Guangzhou is March 26, 2021, breaking the previous record held by March 29, 2018. In 2023, Guangzhou officially entered summer on April 11, 5 days earlier than usual.

source | 广州日报

News situation

This week's news, positive and negative balance, the market trend is not clear.

During the 12th week (3/18-3/24), the industry estimates that the emergence of ducklings will increase to an average of about 10.3 million birds per day, and there will be a possibility of delay. The current number of hatchlings will correspond to a corresponding increase in the number of meat ducks produced in the future, which may lead to an increase in the supply of duck down.

From January to February 2024, China's down industry exports totaled approximately US$210 million, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%. However, there are still bright spots in this export. For example, in January this year, Asian textile industry countries expanded their imports of down raw materials, and in February this year, the export volume of chemical fiber down jackets was close to normal. It can be seen that the world apparel market has sent out a weak signal of recovery.

On World Meteorological Day, March 23, Guangzhou broke the record for the earliest summer. With the expected mild winter in the southern hemisphere, the market for gray goose and gray duck down, which are mainly exported, may be greatly affected.

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