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Weekly Market Report | The down market has fallen, and both supply and demand are still competing; exports have reached a lower limit, and foreign trade at the beginning of the year replicates last year's downturn.

2024-03-24 来源：金绒浏览量：1461

Summary

The market will generally fall in the 12th week of 2024 (3.18-3.24).

At present, the demand for finished down is not strong, and brand sellers find it difficult to accept the current high prices, so there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. At the same time, the recent sales of white-feathered meat ducks have begun to increase, which has also increased the supply of raw duck feathers.Various reasons eventually led to the down market.

However, the slaughter volume of geese and ducks this year is less than in previous years, so the supply of raw material wool is always insufficient. Washed down factories are generally reluctant to sell, so the down market is still strong. At present, the spring down purchasing recovery in the clothing market is approaching, and both supply and demand will slowly return to rationality after several rounds of games.

According to customs data, after almost hitting new lows in January and February last year, exports of down and feathers for filling hit a new low again in the first two months of this year. The export of down bedding, including quilts, also replicated last year's downturn.

Good news this week

The production capacity of major down jacket OEMs is nearly full in the second quarter and is more optimistic in the second half of the year

Quang Viet, a major down jacket OEM, recently announced that its monthly consolidated revenue in February 2024 was 734 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 6.48% compared with the same period last year.

Chairman Wu Chaobi said that the first quarter is the traditional off-season in Guangzhou, and the revenue contribution to the whole year is low. In addition to the off-season effect in February, there are also fewer working days during the Lunar New Year holiday, resulting in revenue compared with last year. Revenue decreased slightly during the same period.

Looking forward to 2024, Guangyue pointed out that there will be an additional brand customer order this year. As customer inventory adjustment gradually comes to an end, orders are expected to recover in the second half of the year, and the overall operation for the year will be viewed with caution.

KWONG LUNG, a major down jacket OEM, recently announced last year's profit information. The net profit after tax for 2023 was 578 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.1%.

According to estimates by foreign research institutions, the global outdoor clothing manufacturing market is approximately US$7.8 billion, and Guanglong accounts for nearly 2% of the global market. Guanglong's current goal is to increase the proportion of ready-to-wear revenue to 70%, which means that it will capture the market share to 3.5% or even 4% in the future.

Up to now, Guanglong's garment order fulfillment rate has exceeded 55%, customer order momentum is gradually recovering, and the second quarter production capacity is approaching full load, and the revenue situation of down raw materials and home textiles departments will improve compared with last year, and the growth rate in the second half of the year will be more optimistic.

source | 中时新闻网

Down and feather export statistics of major provinces and cities in January 2024 - improved

According to Chinese customs data, in January 2024, Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers. Among them, exports account for half of the domestic share.

In this month, Zhejiang Province exported 1,709 tons of down and feathers, an increase of 25% year-on-year; the export value was 170 million yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 18% year-on-year.

In January 2024, Anhui Province ranked second in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers.

In that month, Anhui Province exported 1,471 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 24% year-on-year; the export value was 107 million yuan, a decrease of 11% year-on-year.

Compared with last month, the down and feather exports of Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shandong have increased significantly, but the export volumes of Guangdong and Shandong have declined.

In January 2024, Jiangsu Province exported 443 tons of down and feathers, an increase of 21% year-on-year; the export value was 69 million yuan, an increase of 55% year-on-year.

In January 2024, Guangdong Province exported 55 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 48% from the same period last year; the export value was 16 million yuan, a decrease of 13% from the same period last year.

In January 2024, Shandong Province exported 53 tons of down and feathers, an increase of 41% year-on-year; the export value was 15 million yuan, an increase of 25% year-on-year.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

The possibility of La Niña becoming more likely in 2024, or even earlier

The forecast results released by the China National Marine Environment Forecast Center on the 14th believe that the moderate to strong El Niño phenomenon that started in May 2023 is currently weakening and is expected to end in the spring of 2024. It is predicted that the equatorial Pacific will enter a La Niña state this summer, and a La Niña event will form by the end of the year.

La Niña, also known as a "cold event," refers to a large-scale cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and changes in tropical atmospheric circulation. El Niño and La Niña are two opposite phenomena of the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical Pacific, collectively known as El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

On March 14, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reported that El Nino has an 83 percent chance of reaching ENSO neutral in April-June and expects a 62 percent chance of transforming into La Nina during June-August.

This month’s forecast, in addition to the greater chance of conversion, also believes that La Niña has a 1/3 possibility of arriving earlier (May-July). Additionally, although spring forecasts tend to be unreliable, La Niña conditions following strong El Niño conditions are fairly common.

source | 中国新闻网、NOAA

Bad news this week

The current restocking period corresponds to the slaughtering before the May Day holiday, and the incremental pressure of white-feathered meat ducks has increased.

The first quarter is coming to an end, and the egg prices of white-feathered ducks have stopped falling and stabilized. However, with the continuous price restrictions, the breeding poultry side continues to be suppressed by the downstream. At present, strict cost control and accelerated turnover are still the major concerns of downstream cold storage plants.

At present, the cost of incubation is basically equal to the current seedling price.The main positive point in recent days is that the current replenishment market corresponds to the sales before the May Day holiday, and the industry is highly motivated to replenish the market. After the 20th, the avoidance period will enter, the plan will become weak again, and the price of seedlings will have limited support for incubation costs, and there may be the risk of another loss.

In the medium and long term, the parent breeding ducks continue to increase in the 10 weeks after the New Year, and the selection of ducks has not yet begun, so it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the continuous increase of the new production of ducks in March and April, and its drag effect on the continued upward of the seedling price.

In the short term, the expansion of profit is slightly difficult, and it is expected that under the dual pressure of "slaughter volume, inventory increment" and "slow orders", product profits will continue to decline from the end of March to early April, but at the end of April, under the stimulation of the "May Day" node, profit is expected to expand.

source | Mysteel

Down clothing import and export statistics (January) - entering the off-season

In January 2024, a total of 1.374 million pieces of down clothing were exported, a 42% decrease from December last year; the export value was 248 million yuan, a 45% decrease from December last year.

2024年1月羽绒服出口表

商品名称	数量 (万件)	人民币 (亿元)	数量同比去年	金额同比去年
棉制男羽绒服	22.2	0.34	-68.3%	-64.1%
化纤制男羽绒服	45.2	0.89	-42.8%	-38.5%
棉制女羽绒服	8.5	0.14	-93.3%	-91.3%
化纤制女羽绒服	61.5	1.12	-44.2%	-43.0%

近14月男装羽绒服出口情况

近14月女装羽绒服出口情况

It can be seen from past data that the export of down clothing has entered the off-season, and the export volume in January this year fell by 42% compared to the same period last year.

Looking at the situation in recent years, January is basically the beginning of the off-season for exports throughout the year. The exception is the same period last year. Due to the impact of the overseas circulation ban, the overall export situation of cotton down jackets was not as good as in previous years. As a result, low-price promotions to countries along the Belt and Road also caused export volume to grow against the trend.

In terms of imports, in January 2024, a total of 336,000 pieces of down clothing were imported, an increase of 11.3% from the previous month; the import value was 387 million yuan, a decrease of 14.0% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Antarctic sea ice extent hits record low, exacerbating global warming

On the 19th local time, the latest report released by the World Meteorological Organization stated that 2023 will be the hottest year on record, and many climate change indicators such as global greenhouse gas concentration and surface temperature have set new records. The earth may be hotter in 2024, and the World Meteorological Organization has issued a red alert to the world.

Data show that the global average sea surface temperature has continued to hit record highs since April 2023, with records set significantly in July, August and September. Currently, the Antarctic sea ice area is at a record low, and the maximum sea ice area at the end of winter is 1 million square kilometers less than the previous lowest record.

Antarctic sea ice plays a very important role in maintaining the stability of the earth's climate. It affects the climate by reflecting solar radiation, absorbing heat and affecting ocean circulation, and its reduction may cause more solar radiation to be absorbed, exacerbating the rate of global warming.

At the same time, Antarctic sea ice is a huge carbon sink that can absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide. As the sea ice area decreases, the capacity of this carbon sink will also weaken, which will lead to an increase in global carbon dioxide concentrations.

source | 央视财经、中国气象报

News situation

This week's news is mixed with good news and bad news, and the market trend is still unclear.

During the 11th week (3/11-3/17), the industry estimates that the number of duck seedlings will increase to an average of about 10.2 million birds per day, and there is still the possibility of an increase in the future. The current number of hatchlings will correspond to a corresponding increase in the number of meat ducks produced in the future, which may lead to an increase in the supply of duck down.

This year's Asian goods may arrive in the United States earlier than in previous years, so major down jacket OEMs also expect orders to resume growth, and demand for down and feathers in Southeast and South Asian countries is expected to rise. Contract manufacturers with factories in these countries believe that the second half of the year will be more optimistic.

Meteorological agencies predict that a La Niña event will form by the end of this year, increasing the possibility of a cold winter. However, the latest report released by the World Meteorological Organization states that global warming is becoming increasingly severe. Overall, we should pay more attention to and prevent various climate disasters this year.

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