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Weekly Market Report | Down prices are artificially high, and the market trend is gradually reversing; imports and exports have dropped significantly, and the industry’s foreign trade is facing challenges

2024-03-17 来源：金绒浏览量：546

Summary

In the 11th week of 2024 (3.11-3.17), the market was overall stable, with duck down falling slightly.

At the beginning of the year, some brands worried that the price of cashmere continued to rise sharply, so they issued orders for the new season in advance, and then coincided with the Spring Festival holiday of slaughtering enterprises and washing factories, so the pattern of short supply of feather cashmere was formed, and repeatedly pushed up its price.

However, as the stock of breeding ducks in the upstream has grown steadily, the supply of raw material wool has become increasingly loose, while major downstream brands have stopped harvesting due to inflated prices. As a result, the market direction has gradually reversed.There is no support from trading volume, and the risk of hoarding is increasing. Therefore, all parties have returned to rationality and adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of foreign trade, due to the Red Sea shipping crisis, demand for railway transportation, including China-Europe trains, has exploded.At the same time, the Houthi armed forces recently announced that they will expand the scope of their attacks to the Indian Ocean, which will once again make the global shipping industry uneasy, and our country's foreign trade development will also face challenges.

Good news this week

The "Emblem Global" campaign has signed orders worth over 3 billion yuan

The Anhui Provincial Department of Commerce revealed on the 11th that since the beginning of this year, the department has continued to implement the "Anhui Global" foreign trade promotion action. As of now, nearly 400 companies in the province have participated in domestic and overseas exhibitions such as the China International Trade Fair, and have signed orders of over 3 billion yuan (RMB , the same below).

In the first two months of this year, 8 foreign trade companies including Freya Down and East-West International in Lu'an City, Anhui Province participated in 6 exhibitions including the Paris Clothing Fabrics Exhibition in France and the Hong Kong Baby and Children's Products Exhibition, and received US$5.94 million in intended orders.

At the beginning of 2024, Freya Down shared time with new and old friends at home and abroad at the world's largest "International Home and Commercial Textiles Exhibition" in Frankfurt, Germany and the "ISPO Beijing 2024 18th Asian Sporting Goods and Fashion Exhibition" build harmonious and close cooperative ties.

As a famous enterprise in Lu'an, "one of the largest down distribution centers in China", Freya Down showcases China's high-quality down/wool raw materials to the world. The company's product quality, production technology, and corporate strength have been favored and recognized by foreign customers, and a high degree of consensus on cooperation has been reached.

source | 中国新闻网、亚华羽绒

Sales of outdoor products doubled, and female consumption drove the vigorous development of Douyin e-commerce industry belt

On March 6, during the "Douyin Mall 38 Good Things Festival", Douyin E-commerce released the "2024 Douyin E-commerce Female Consumption Trend Data Report" to sort out the consumption preferences and development trends of female users on the platform.

Douyin e-commerce's top ten most popular products among female consumers include Guangzhou women's clothing, Yiwu jewelry, Shenzhen digital, Pinghu down, Zhuji socks, Nantong home textiles, Yunnan flowers, Wuchang rice, Changbai Mountain ginseng and Huludao swimwear.

The report shows that female consumers are paying more and more attention to the positive effects of consumption behavior on self-improvement. In the past year, the number of outdoor sports products purchased by women on Douyin e-commerce increased by 93% year-on-year. Outdoor clothing, steppers, yoga-related products, running shoes, and fishing equipment are the most popular outdoor sports products among women.

The rapid growth of women's health needs has also driven the booming development of related industries. In 2023, the overall growth of the outdoor sports category of Douyin e-commerce will exceed 100%. Among them, the GMV of the Quanzhou Outdoor Sports Industry Zone will increase by more than 142%, the order volume will increase by more than 154%, and the merchants will increase by more than 240%.

source | 抖音电商

Bad news this week

Statistics on the development of light industry in 2023 show that the performance of the down industry is not as good as in previous years

In 2023, the production of enterprises above designated size in light industry will continue to rebound, profits will significantly improve, and operating income and total profits will maintain double growth, making positive contributions to the stable growth of the national economy. The main economic indicator bulletins involving the down industry are as follows:

In that year, the number of enterprises in the down and leather industry was 8,587. Among industrial enterprises above designated size, the number of enterprises in the industry ranked among the top ten.

Among enterprises above designated size, the operating income of six industries including agricultural and sideline food processing, battery manufacturing, plastic products, food manufacturing, home appliances, and papermaking exceeds 1 trillion yuan. Although the operating income of the down and leather industry ranks among the top ten, it failed to exceed 1 trillion yuan as in previous years.

The total profits of the six industries of brewing, food manufacturing, home appliances, agricultural and sideline food processing, plastic products, and battery manufacturing exceeded 100 billion yuan, accounting for 67.0% of the profits of enterprises above designated size in the entire light industry . The total profit of the down and leather industry fell out of the top ten.

In 2023, the operating income profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size in the light industry will be 6.3%. Among them, the operating income profit margin of the down and leather industry is 5.6%, which is lower than the average level.

source | 中国轻工业联合会

Analysis of our country's down clothing exports in 2023 - significant decline

2023 is the first year of economic recovery after three years of COVID-19 prevention and control. According to China Customs statistics, from January to December 2023, our country's total exports of clothing (including clothing accessories, the same below) were US$159.14 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% on the high base in 2022, and an increase of 8.5% over the same period in 2019 before the epidemic.

It has been one and a half years since the U.S. "Xinjiang-related Act" was implemented, and our country's exports of cotton products to major developed markets have continued to decline significantly. From January to December, our country's cotton apparel exports were US$45.54 billion, down 11.7% year-on-year, of which exports to the United States, the European Union and Japan fell by 18.6%, 23.7% and 23.4% respectively.

2024 will be a big challenge. On the one hand, the supply chain adjustment trend of "nearshore outsourcing", "friend-shore outsourcing" and "de-China" in developed countries is still continuing, and on the other hand, Central Asia, Russia and other regions with substantial export growth in 2023 are expected to slow down in 2024 due to a high base and limited market demand.

In terms of down jackets, the export volume in 2023 decreased by 21% year-on-year, and the export value in US dollars (year-on-year, the same below) decreased by 25%. Among them, exports to the EU, the United States, Japan and South Korea all fell, but exports to Russia increased significantly.

Jiangsu, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shandong are the top five ports for down jacket exports in our country. Among them, Jiangsu's exports were 345.74 million yuan, a decrease of 31%; Fujian's exports were 317.63 million yuan, a decrease of 12%; Zhejiang's exports were 310.64 million yuan, a decrease of 23%; Shanghai's exports were 149.72 million yuan, a decrease of 8%; Shandong's exports were 116.90 million yuan, a decrease of 26%

The top four markets for our country's down jacket exports are the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea. Among them, exports to the EU were 416.52 million yuan, a decrease of 37%; exports to the United States were 144.36 million yuan, a decrease of 22%; exports to Japan were 130.64 million yuan, a decrease of 27%; exports to South Korea were 119.80 million yuan, a decrease of 16%.

source | 金绒整理自海关总署、中国纺织品进出口商会

This year’s export growth exceeded expectations, but a rebound in foreign trade of down jackets is not yet evident.

Compared with the negative growth start in 2023, the double-digit growth of foreign trade this year is particularly outstanding. "In terms of scale, it has created a new high for the same period in history." Yu Jianhua, director of the General Administration of Customs, commented on the latest report card.

Many small, medium and micro foreign trade companies have had a better start this year than last year. Continuing the overall trend of market recovery in the second half of last year, it is an important reason for the high growth in the first two months of this year. In addition, this year's Spring Festival is late, which to a certain extent also allows the export demand in the first two months to be released in advance.

According to customs data, from an industry perspective, ships, general machinery and equipment, integrated circuits, furniture and their parts, as well as labor-intensive products such as clothing, textiles, and plastics all achieved double-digit growth.

However, based on industry and individual differences, different companies have different feelings about the market recovery.

The sales person in charge of a large clothing trading company said that the foreign trade market is not picking up this year yet. At recent trade fairs focusing on clothing and textiles, there is not much overseas passenger flow. Take the production of down jackets as an example. Orders from such factories around the Spring Festival rely more on domestic sales rather than exports. "This year, China has been cold for a long time, so domestic sales are more."

In Yu Jianhua's view, favorable factors for foreign trade are gathering. The latest customs survey found that the proportion of companies planning to expand exports and imports increased by 23 percentage points, the highest since last year. For this reason, it is preliminarily judged that China's foreign trade can maintain a growth channel in the first half of this year.

source | 第一财经

This year, the world experienced the hottest February on record

The Copernicus Climate Change Service, an EU research agency, recently stated that February this year was the hottest February in the world's history, with unprecedented high temperature records set for the ninth consecutive month in the past 12 months.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) further pointed out that regardless of single-day or monthly average temperatures, February temperatures in the Americas, southeastern Africa, Southeast Asia and Europe have all exceeded high temperature records. For example, Morocco experienced a mild winter of 33.9 degrees Celsius, and this year was the hottest winter in Greek history.

Data show that the temperature in February was 1.77 degrees Celsius (the same below) higher than the average before industrialization (1850 to 1900) and 0.81 degrees higher than the period from 1991 to 2020. The global average temperature in the past 12 months has also reached the highest level on record, 1.56 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels.

On the other hand, global ocean surface temperatures have also exceeded existing high temperature records. Copernicus pointed out that the average sea surface temperature at the end of February reached an unprecedented 21.09 degrees. The World Meteorological Organization warned as early as January that 2024 may become the hottest year on record due to the influence of El Niño.

source | 新华社

News situation

This week’s news is slightly more negative than positive.

During the 10th week (3/4-3/10), the industry estimates that the number of duck seedlings will increase to an average of about 9.9 million birds per day, and there is still the possibility of an increase in the future. The current number of hatchlings will correspond to a corresponding increase in the number of meat ducks produced in the future, which may lead to an increase in the supply of duck down.

Although this year's foreign trade has had a "good start", my country's textile and clothing exports have not yet reached the level of the same period in 2022, and are still recovering growth. The export quantity of down clothing in 2023 will decrease by 21% year-on-year, and the export value will decrease by 25% in US dollars.

Data shows that February this year was the hottest February in history in the world, and some countries even experienced the hottest winter in history. Due to the influence of the El Niño phenomenon, 2024 may become the hottest year on record, and the demand for warmth in autumn and winter in the southern hemisphere may weaken as a result.

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