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Weekly Market Report | As cold air superimposes, down jackets sell out during the New Year Festival; the manufacturing industry improves, and textile companies are more active in stocking up.

2024-02-04 来源：金绒浏览量：1921

Summary

In the fifth week of 2024 (1.29-2.4), the market generally rose, and duck down increased significantly.

This week has entered the end of the Lunar New Year of Guimao, and after a period of fiery market activity in the down market, transactions have gradually subsided. After returning to work on the eighth day of the new year next year, there will only be about two weeks left before the peak season of Golden Three. It can be said that it will be a seamless transition and successfully take over the sudden outbreak of the market a year ago.

Recently, cold air has been superimposed on a long period of rain and snow, and the temperature in the central and eastern parts has been lower than normal. After February 5, the cold air will push to South China, and these have stimulated down companies to continue to be optimistic about the post-holiday market.At the same time, there is less goose and duck feathers than in the same period in previous years, resulting in a shortage of down raw materials.

The U.S. ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rose in January, indicating signs of stabilization in the U.S. manufacturing industry. Among them, the apparel and related industries reported growth in new orders and production, but with higher inventories. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in January was 50.8, expanding for three consecutive months. Overall, the manufacturing industry continues to improve, with both supply and demand expanding.

Good news this week

Major down jacket OEM companies plan to sprint into the second half of the year

The inventory of sportswear customers is still being adjusted. The first quarter is the traditional off-season. The visibility of orders on hand for major down jacket OEMs Quang Viet and KWONG LUNG is about 3 to 5 months. Operations are expected to be stable in the first half of 2024 and to surge in the second half of the year.

The market pointed out that although the operations of Guangyue and Guanglong did not see significant growth in the first half of the year, with the increase in the utilization rate of their own production lines, the gross profit margin is expected to increase by 1 to 2 percentage points compared with last year. The full-year operation still has a small double-digit annual growth rate.

Guangyue's four major customers will place orders in 2024, with Lululemon as the customer with the largest growth rate. As for Nike and Adidas, their performance in 2024 is expected to be better than that in 2023. The North Face's momentum is relatively flat, and Patagonia will not improve until the third quarter of the peak season.

Guangyue expects that the momentum in the first half of 2024 will be relatively flat, and revenue performance is expected to cool down compared to the same period in 2023. It is expected that the annual change rate of revenue in the second half of the year will have a chance to turn positive. However, Guangyue pointed out that he is optimistic that market demand will rebound significantly in 2025.

Guanglong predicts that revenue in the first half of 2024 will be about the same as in 2023, and the main growth will be in the second half of the year.

Guanglong has launched production expansion plans in Indonesia and Vietnam. Among them, the new joint venture expansion plant in Central Java Province, Indonesia, is divided into four phases and will be put into production successively from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first half of 2024;The expansion of the new factory in Vinh Long Province, Vietnam, will expand ten garment production lines and is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2024.

source | 中时新闻网

The New Year Festival has begun, and orders in the "Clothing City" have surged

As the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon approaches, major e-commerce platforms have successively launched "New Year Goods Festivals". Coupled with the cold wave across the country, sales of down jackets, cotton jackets and other categories in Changshu have soared. It is reported that recently, many Changshu clothing merchants are often busy until one or two o'clock in the morning before finishing work. Down jacket seller Wang Wei said:

"After the cold wave hit, we saw a significant increase in orders from January 19, 45 percent more than usual." Wang Wei introduced that she runs a down jacket factory in Changshu Merchants Mall, the main category is women's down jacket, and there are shops on Taobao and Douyin. Affected by the cooling and snowfall in many parts of the country, the shipment of her down jacket factory during the New Year goods Festival increased by 60% compared with last year.

"Purple is selling better this year." Wang Wei review the recent sales, found that young groups like bright purple, and middle-aged and elderly clothing, the new national tide dark purple is better sales, "the Spring Festival is coming, middle-aged and elderly down jacket single volume significantly increased, many young people will give the family elders to buy clothing."

Recently, the number of packages such as down jackets and quilts in Changshu has increased significantly, and the single amount during the New Year goods Festival has increased by at least 50% compared with normal times, and the working hours of the sorting operators in the outlets have also been greatly extended to four or five o 'clock in the morning, which has brought certain challenges to express logistics services.

source | 时代财经

New Year Down Jackets “Low Price” and “Quality”

In order to cater to the leap in consumer spending habits, Douyin e-commerce has also made a series of changes during this New Year's Festival. Among them, cost-effectiveness is the main theme. Merchants achieved good sales through the New Year Festival, and consumers took advantage of this opportunity to buy high-quality and low-priced products.

In the Yaya Down Jacket live broadcast room, there were still nearly a thousand people in the live broadcast room even after 12 o'clock in the evening. The anchor showed off different styles of down jackets, and also answered questions one by one from users such as "How much down is filled?" "The size is too big or too small" and "What kind of down is it?"

When you click on the shopping cart, you can find that many of them are marked with "15% instant discount". For example, a long thickened down jacket, originally priced at 588 yuan, is only 399 yuan after a 15% discount and a 100 yuan coupon from the store.

Douyin Mall’s “Gold List” shows that 490,000 people have placed orders for women’s down jackets and 180,000 people have placed orders for home wear during the event. Among them, the goose down jacket, which ranks first on the list of women's down jackets, has been ordered by 50,000 people after an official subsidy of 283 yuan.

source | AI蓝媒汇

Hangzhou Sijiqing shopping mall is crazy, Guanyintang subway station is overcrowded

Two pairs of trousers cost 150 yuan, one down jacket costs 200 yuan, and four baby clothes cost 100 yuan... As the Spring Festival approaches, Hangzhou Sijiqing Clothing Market has begun a clearance process, and various merchants have offered amazing discounts to attract citizens to come and buy.

"I bought down jackets for myself and my son to wear during the New Year." Ms. Yang said. She took the subway from Xiasha at around eight o'clock in the morning and came here to shop. She spent the whole morning shopping and was going home for lunch at noon. "I'm from Jiangxi and will be returning to my hometown in two days. Sijiqing has a wide variety of clothes and is very cost-effective. "

During this period, the popularity of Sijiqing Clothing District can indeed be described as "exploding". Customers carrying large and small bags can be seen everywhere inside and outside various markets. Although their hands are heavy, their faces are full of smiles.

"People scanning goods crowded the nearby Guanyintang subway station. Everyone had several bags of loot, and the bags were all black and the same. When I went through the subway security check, I couldn't tell them apart, hahaha." Mr. Xie said.

source | 潮新闻

Yichun: Down products sell well overseas

Recently, a batch of washed white duck down from Jiangxi Helong Down Products Co., Ltd. weighing 1 ton and worth US$47,000 will be exported overseas after passing the inspection and quarantine of Yichun Customs, a subsidiary of Nanchang Customs.

Winter is the peak export season for down products, and the export volume of down products from Jiangxi Yichun down companies has increased significantly. Chen Zhiwen, head of Jiangxi Helong Down Products Co., Ltd., said: "We process the purchased raw feathers through a series of processes such as separation, washing, drying, disinfection and dust removal to extract high-quality down, which is favored by overseas customers. "

In order to help enterprises in the jurisdiction smoothly export down and feather products, Yichun Customs has established a research group on technical trade measures for down and feathers to promptly notify enterprises of overseas goods trade control measures and early warning information on changes in technical regulations based on the laws, regulations and standards of the importing country.

In 2023, the Yichun Customs area exported 157 tons of down and feathers with a value of 45 million yuan, mainly exported to Japan, Canada, Myanmar, Vietnam and other countries and regions.

source | 江西日报

Bad news this week

December World Avian Influenza Report – Reaching the Peak

According to the latest report from WOAH (World Organization for Animal Health), from December 8, 2023 to January 5, 2024 (4 weeks), a total of 211 new cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza were reported globally, which is 10% higher than the previous report ( November 17 to December 7, 2023, 3 weeks) increased by 54%.

During the reporting period, a total of 95 new poultry outbreaks were reported in 14 countries (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, South Korea, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, South Africa, United States).

116 new outbreaks of non-poultry and mammalian diseases were reported in 23 countries and regions (Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Chinese Taipei, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Moldova, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States).

The number of poultry losses reported this time has increased by 73% since the last report, and the number of new poultry outbreaks has increased by 4%. According to data from past reports, the current period of avian influenza epidemic growth reaches its peak within a year.

Since the beginning of winter, bird flu outbreaks have occurred in Europe and the United States and even in East and Central Asia. The speed of the spread of the epidemic is even more worrying.

At present, egg prices in California, USA, have begun to rise again due to the resurgence of bird flu. The Federal Department of Agriculture (USDA) pointed out that in Northern California and the Central Valley alone, 7 million laying hens have been infected in the past two months. If the situation does not improve, egg prices may skyrocket again.

According to the website of the National Administration of Disease Control and Prevention, a case of H3N2 and H10N5 mixed infection was discovered in Zhejiang Province on January 30. However, experts assessed that the virus was of poultry origin and did not have the ability to effectively infect humans. The epidemic was an occasional cross-species transmission from poultry to humans, and no human-to-human transmission occurred.

source | 金绒采编数据来自WOAH

News situation

This week’s news is more positive than negative.

During the fourth week (January 22-January 28), the industry estimates that the average number of ducklings emerging is about 10 million birds per day, which is on the rise compared to the previous week. In mid-December, the duck industry in the north was in a stagnation or parking period, and during the corresponding period in late January, the number of meat ducks sold decreased accordingly, resulting in duck down being in short supply.

With the start of the "New Year's Goods Festival" and the onset of the cold wave across the country, there has been a boom in down jacket sales both online and offline. Among them, cost-effectiveness has become the main theme. Merchants achieved good sales through the New Year Festival, and consumers took advantage of this opportunity to buy high-quality and low-priced products.

The market improvement since the fourth quarter has given textile companies a subtle change in mentality. They are more active in stocking up before the holidays and resuming production after the holidays. From an export perspective, the replenishment of inventories by the United States and Europe, interest rate cuts in the United States, and the shift of my country's export competitiveness to the mid-to-upstream will provide structural opportunities for my country's foreign trade in 2024.

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