Cn-down > Domestic news > News content

Weekly Market Report | The "Winter Economy" is booming, with sales of warm clothing booming; down raw materials are in short supply, and the purchase price of goose down has soared

2024-01-14 来源：金绒浏览量：1384

Summary

In the second week of 2024 (1.8-1.14), the market price of duck down was stable, while goose down surged.

As the Spring Festival approaches, most clothing and down factories are preparing for the holidays, so domestic sales of finished down products are only sporadic. However, some major brands are worried that the price of cashmere will continue to soar next year and have begun to place orders for the new season. Due to the shortage of raw materials, washed cashmere companies can only purchase raw materials from various places based on orders, which has pushed up the market for raw material plush.

Analysts expect interest rates in the United States and Europe to fall by at least 1.5 percentage points this year, which is bound to improve demand for imported goods in these countries. Customs data shows that imports and exports in December 2023 reached a record high of 3.81 trillion yuan, and this is another sign that global trade has begun to pick up.

The "three-nine days" that were supposed to be very cold turned out to be as warm as spring in March, and many people began to regret that they bought their down jackets for nothing, and even returned the down jackets that had not yet been shipped. The "Four-nine Days" will usher in the Great Cold Season. The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that strong cold air will bring a large-scale windy and cooling weather process from the 19th to the 21st. This may be able to revive the down products market before the holiday.

Good news this week

Even if you have enough money, you can’t buy it! Down jackets are so expensive this year but they are so popular

This winter, the topic of down jackets has attracted much attention. For example, #Can you accept domestic down jackets worth more than 1,000 yuan? This topic has been on the hot search and has reached tens of millions of reads. There are many people who lament that down jackets are now expensive, but people's enthusiasm for buying down jackets seems to be increasing.

Recently, in many shopping malls, sales staff of many clothing stores said that the down jackets in the store have been sold out. Inventory data even showed that other stores in Shanghai are also out of stock.

In the MLB store, the sales staff said that there were nearly 10 new winter down jackets, but currently there is only one style of down jacket for sale in the store, and there are only two sizes left. “Now our brand, down jackets are available in all Shanghai stores. It’s almost sold out and you can’t buy it even if you have money.”

At an Under Armor store in a shopping mall, a citizen bought the last down jacket in the store. The clerk took the clothes off the model and said, "This is the last one. The model is sold out and I won't be able to wear it anymore."

At a store of sports brand Adidas, someone asked if there were more styles. The staff replied that because many people "rushed to buy" down jackets during the last cold wave and New Year's Day promotions, down jackets are now out of stock or out of stock in various stores in Shanghai, and "the goods can only be transferred from other places."

Why are down jackets so popular this year despite their low prices? A relevant staff member of a certain brand said that this year’s new styles and ability to withstand the cold have made their business very good this winter. "Many people used to think our styles were dull. After changing designers, many people obviously feel that this year's styles have become younger and more fashionable. "

In addition, with the popularity of foreign brands such as Canada Goose, many people have learned more about goose down jackets. "Goose down jackets are light and warm to wear, like a walking quilt, but goose down jackets abroad can easily cost tens of thousands. We can buy them for more than 2,000 yuan, isn't it a good deal? So many people buy them. "

source | 新闻晨报周到APP

The "winter economy" is booming, driving demand in the textile industry to exceed expectations

After the rapid growth of winter textile sales on Double 11, Double 12 also ushered in a round of inventory replenishment due to factors such as the sudden drop in temperature. The "winter economy" during the New Year's Day holiday also catalyzed the growth in sales of outdoor sporting goods to a certain extent,and the textile sector has attracted much attention recently.

Usually one month before the Spring Festival, the domestic weaving start-up rate will gradually show a downward trend. It fell rapidly around 10-20 days before the Spring Festival, but the current operating rate remains above 70%, exceeding the general market expectations, and some companies have postponed the shutdown originally scheduled for mid-January to around January 20-25.

From the seasonal consumption point of view, the textile industry usually ushered in the first half of the demand small peak season, when the spring and summer orders will be fully issued, as well as the end of 2023 foreign trade orders pick up, will also boost the demand for the 2024 small peak season.

In addition, the annual Spring Festival holiday will be ushered in the future, and overseas companies will also stock up in advance to avoid being unable to place orders during the Spring Festival and delaying the progress of garment production.

It is understood that the salary provided by Vietnamese factories reaches 7 million to 10 million VND, equivalent to about 2,100-3,000 yuan, which is much higher than the level in 2021. Vietnam no longer has the advantage of low cost, and wages are actually rising globally, so European and American customers are switching orders back to China.

We also found that some markets such as the European Union have put forward green and environmental protection requirements for imported textiles, and have strict requirements on product quality and raw material sources. Other countries simply cannot meet this requirement, and only domestic products can pass customs. Therefore, China still has a competitive advantage.

source| 中国纺织品进出口商会、印染时讯

Ice and snow travel in Northeast China is booming, with sales of warm clothing booming

“It’s not that Northern Europe is unaffordable, but Harbin is more cost-effective.” Recently, northern ice and snow travel has exploded, and Harbin has frequently been on the hot searches, becoming the number one internet celebrity tourist city this winter. With the boom in northern ice and snow tourism, sales of outdoor sports categories have also increased significantly.

According to data from Intime Department Store, in the past month, the sales of outdoor sports brands Camel, Pathfinder, Kelal Stone, Salomon and other brands have increased by more than 200% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of Kelal Stone have increased by more than 300% year-on-year.

"Many customers come to the store specifically to buy mid-length down jackets. The extreme cold goose down jacket in our store has been particularly popular recently. Today, a couple was traveling to Harbin before the Spring Festival and bought two pieces. It was below freezing over there. Even if it’s 30 degrees, you won’t feel cold even if you wear this down jacket.” said a store clerk at Hefei Yintai Center Kailer Stone.

Data from Yintai Department Store's Miaojie APP shows that in the past month, the search volume for the keyword "skiing" has increased 40 times year-on-year, driving up sales of a series of ski equipment. Among them, the sales of Fila ski suits increased by more than three times compared with the same period last year, and the sales of Mini peace children's ski suits increased by five times compared with the same period last year.

JD.com’s sales data shows that in the past week, sales of JD.com’s down jackets, snow boots, thermal underwear and other thermal items have grown rapidly across the country, with particularly significant growth in sales in southern provinces and cities such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan and Shanghai. Among them, the sales of thickened long down jackets increased by 134%.

The logistics industry can also be described as the "duck prophet when spring water is warm". Wang Jian, the person in charge of Yiwu Jinyun Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd. said: "We have enjoyed the dividends of this 'winter economy', and warm and cold-proof products are continuously shipped to the three northeastern provinces. You see, these dozens of bags are all winter down jackets. . ”

source | 新浪时尚、中国经济网、义乌网

The quotation has doubled in half a month, and the white-feathered duck seedlings are becoming more popular again? Industry News: The surplus situation remains unchanged

Since the end of December last year, the price of ducklings has been rising almost every day. The quotation platform of the Shandong Breeding Duck Alliance shows that on December 22, 2023, the price of ducklings was only 1.5 yuan/bird, but on January 9 this year, the price rose to 3.1 yuan/bird. In more than half a month, the price of duck seedlings has more than doubled.

The price of ducklings has doubled, and the prices of by-products such as duck heads and necks have been raised simultaneously. Is it possible that the white-feathered meat duck, which has been languishing for a long time, is doing well again? Liu Changsheng, chairman of the Shandong Breeding Duck Alliance, said that the current supply of the breeding poultry industry is still oversupply, and the price increase of ducklings around the suspension period may be just a "flash in the pan", and the future is still not optimistic.

Analysts from the Shanghai Ganglian Agricultural Products Division said that since mid-to-early December, breeding poultry companies have stopped seedlings one after another. After entering January, seedling emergence in the main production areas has decreased significantly, but the northern breeding production areas have preferences for the last batch of products before the year. The enthusiasm for placing is high, so it supports the rapid upward movement of seedling prices.

The short-term recovery of the industry still cannot dispel the concerns in the industry. Liu Changsheng, chairman of the Shandong Breeding Duck Alliance, said that under normal circumstances, with the number of seedlings emerging per day being around 8 million, duck breeding companies should be profitable. However, consumption will continue to be sluggish in 2023, cold storage plants will also suffer serious losses, and the entire industry chain will enter a "cold winter."

Industry data shows that the average monthly release of parent ducks nationwide in 2023 is 16,000 units, and the emission plan in 2024 is 17,000 units. Based on the amount of stock, the number of seedlings that have emerged since December last year will increase by 1.2 million. If the breeding ducks are not optimized and eliminated, the number of seedlings that will emerge will rise to 10 million in two months, and excess production capacity will soon occur.

It is reported that some breeding poultry companies in Shandong have significantly reduced their breeding duck stock since August last year. At an industry symposium held in December last year, the Shandong Duck Breeding Alliance further called on peers to eliminate backward and inefficient production capacity.

source | 财联社

The purchase price of goose down from the farm has risen to 25 yuan

As winter approaches, orders for goose from Hu Yugang's family farm in Wutai Township, Dehui City have increased sharply. "Now all the geese are sold out! This year I plan to expand the scale and raise 10,000 geese." Hu Yugang, the person in charge of the farm, said happily.

The geese breeding at Hu Yugang's family farm starts in July every year. By the time the geese are raised until the end of the month, the geese are basically sold out. Hu Yugang introduced that the geese raised on the farm are a carnivorous species called Dashanhua. They are easy to fatten, have high meat yield, strong disease resistance, and low breeding pollution. The goose meat is tender and juicy and has high nutritional value, so it is popular in the market.

Over the years, due to good management and careful breeding, the supply of geese on the farm exceeds demand every year. In 2023, the farm raised more than 3,000 geese, with a profit of about 40 yuan each, and the income from this alone was 120,000 yuan.

“Generally, a large goose weighing 8 to 9 pounds can be sold for 150 to 180 yuan. Excluding feed and other costs, a white-striped goose can earn 40 to 100 yuan.Moreover, the market for goose down is good now. In previous years, goose down from one goose could only be sold for 10 yuan, but now the purchase price has risen to 25 yuan. "

source | 长春日报

Bad news this week

2023 will become the hottest year on record, with global temperatures approaching survival limits

Experts from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Program (CS3) revealed that the global average temperature in 2023 will be 14.98 degrees Celsius, about 0.17 degrees higher than the previous hottest year in 2016. Experts warn that global temperatures are now approaching the 1.5 degree Celsius limit.

C3S also pointed out that global carbon dioxide emissions hit a new high in 2023, with carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal, oil and natural gas reaching historical records. This shows that despite the many climate targets set by countries and companies, greenhouse gas emissions remain high.

On January 8, 2024, the National Climate Center also announced that 2023 will be the warmest year since global meteorological records began. Since the El Niño event is expected to last until the spring of 2024, it is expected that the global monthly high temperature record may be broken again before the El Niño event ends.

Now, scientists are more concerned about "What happens after the breakthrough of 1.5 degrees?" Beyond this threshold, many ecosystems on the earth will have difficulty adapting, and the heat in summer will approach the limit of human survival in some places.

source | 新华网、Science科学说

Market news situation

This week’s news is more positive than negative.

During the first week (1/1-1/7), the industry estimates that the average number of ducklings emerging is approximately 3.1 million birds per day, which is an increase compared to the previous week. Although the number of seedlings is expected to increase in the future, it will still remain at a low level overall. At present, the breeding poultry industry is still oversupplied, and the future is still not optimistic. The supply of duck down may be in short supply after the year.

The popularity of Harbin's ice and snow tourism has also driven the sales of long down jackets. At the same time, a second-hand platform down jacket rental business has also emerged. Many sports brands will add ski series product lines in 2023. Even Jiaoxia, which specializes in outdoor sunscreen categories, has also launched a ski category. The "lightweight ski series" has become the most popular ski product.

2023 will become the warmest year in the history of global meteorological records, and it is expected that the global continuous monthly high temperature record may be broken again before the end of the El Niño event. The good news is that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate forecast states that the possibility of La Niña in 2024 is increasing, which will bring a cooling effect.

免责声明：本站资讯信息来源为网友投稿、本站原创、转载其他媒体，针对于网友投稿和转载其他媒体的资讯内容，版权归原作者所有，同时我们也会标注资讯内容原始出处，羽绒金网在线刊载此文仅为提供更多资讯信息，并不代表本站同意文中的说法或描述，也不构成任何建议。如对本文有任何异议，请联系我们1831045446@qq.com。