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Weekly Market Report | The center of the cold wave has shifted, and expectations for a warm winter in my country are increasing; inventories are gradually being digested, and foreign trade clothing orders are expected to recover

2024-01-07 来源：金绒浏览量：636

Summary

In the first week of 2024 (1.1-1.7), the market was generally stable, with duck down falling slightly.

Since many consumers have the need to travel to Harbin, the first short holiday in 2024 has ignited the enthusiasm for down jacket consumption.However, as the impact of the Consumer Festival subsides, the overall sales of down jackets are declining, and the number of replenishment orders from garment factories is also decreasing. Therefore, the purchase demand for finished down is not strong, and the transaction volume of raw wool is also limited.

Recently, “Little Potatoes from the South” have become popular in ice and snow tourism in Northeast China, and “Warm Sanya lost to cold Harbin” has become a hot topic.During the three-day New Year's Day holiday, Harbin achieved a total tourism revenue of 5.914 billion yuan, with tourist reception and total tourism revenue reaching historical peaks.The industry expects this wave of tourism boom to continue into the Spring Festival holiday.

This week, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates continued to fall against the US dollar, with both devaluing to around 7.17.Previously, expectations for RMB appreciation were strong, and lowering the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar at the beginning of 2024 can avoid unilateral appreciation expectations and will also help export companies maintain their competitiveness.

Good news this week

The market situation has become optimistic, and major down OEM companies have expanded production.

NIKE has lowered its financial forecast for this year, and coupled with war factors, the brand continues to be cautious about the consumer environment next year.

Although NIKE is one of the four major customers of Quang Viet, a major down jacket OEM, Quang Viet said that NIKE's orders are expected to resume growth next year. Also, because this year's operating base period is low, order demand is expected to increase from next year. It is expected to gradually turn positive starting from the second quarter.

In response to future demand, Guangyue will launch production expansion plans at its Long An plant in Vietnam and Jordan plant starting from the first quarter of 2024, with an overall capital expenditure of approximately US$20 million. In response to the expected strong growth in market demand in 2025, it is estimated that order intake will have the opportunity to return to the high level of 2022.

KWONG LUNG, another major down jacket OEM, said at the conference that in the first three quarters of 2023, affected by conservative customer orders and shrinking orders, revenue fell by 21.5% compared with the same period last year. As the operating bottom of garment factories has passed, Guanglong plans to expand new products and introduce new brand customers, striving to return to double-digit growth in 2024.

In terms of production capacity, Guanglong Garment's overseas expansion continues, including the expansion of 10 new production lines in Vietnam and a new factory in Indonesia in the second production area. Six new production lines are initially planned and will be put into production one after another. With the opening of new production capacity , which will help to obtain orders with low unit prices but larger batches.

Guanglong Chairman Zhan Hebo pointed out that in the future, garments will continue to be the main focus of development, with the goal of accounting for 70% of overall revenue in 2026, becoming the main source of growth momentum. In addition, the growth of outdoor functional apparel will further drive up gross profit margin, operating net profit margin, and net profit margin.

source | 中时新闻网

The demand for down jackets in Europe has increased significantly recently

In the workshop of Jiangxi Binides Industrial Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Binides Company"), a down jacket manufacturer, there is a bustling production scene. The workers are skilled in cutting, sewing, filling and other operations. After the down jackets are sorted and packaged, they will be shipped out to France.

"Recently, the demand for down jackets in Europe has increased significantly. Our down jackets are warm and lightweight, and are deeply loved by customers. The order volume has increased by 53% compared with last year." Qiu Yuanhui, the relevant person in charge of Binides Company, said.

“Now we can design independently according to market demand and customer requirements at any time, and some accessories can also be purchased domestically. The profit of a single down jacket has increased by 20% on average. The down jackets we participated in the design have strong warmth, and are also lightweight and fashionable. It has been recognized by foreign high-end outdoor brand customers and recently signed a large order of nearly 10 million yuan with us." Qiu Yuanhui said happily.

It is understood that with the active assistance of Qingshan Lake Customs, the company's orders have been scheduled until 2025. So far, more than 55,000 high-end down jackets have been exported, with a value of 32.173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%.

source | 南昌日报社

Winter quilts are hot-selling, and down quilts are even more popular

In a home textile store in Yiwu Trade City, there are many kinds of quilts in the store, including cotton quilts, down quilts, silk quilts, etc. Many citizens come to buy them. Ms. Zhou, a citizen, said: "It has been cold recently and I felt that one quilt was not enough to cover me. I came here to take a look and planned to buy another quilt, and finally bought a down quilt. "

Ms. Zhou, the owner of a home textile store, said that in the past month, a lot of people have come to buy quilts, and dozens of them can be sold a week, among which down quilts are the best sellers.

Down quilt is the lightest and warmest quilt, divided into goose down and duck down. Because goose down has low odor, high fluffiness and good warmth retention, it is the mainstream material in the market, and the price is generally around 2,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan. When buying goose down quilts, it is recommended to choose ones with 90% or 95% down content and fill power of 700 or above. Special groups such as the elderly and pregnant women are more suitable for down quilts.

Ms. Zhou, the owner of a home textile store, said: "If citizens want to cover themselves with two quilts, they should use cotton quilts and goose down quilts to cover them closely, and put a layer of fiber quilts on top, because goose down quilts and cotton quilts are good for people's health. "

source | 宿迁广播电视总台

Bad news this week

The nationwide temperature drop is "no date", and the center of the cold wave will shift to Europe and the United States

It was originally expected that the cold wave would hit the south during the Xiaohan solar term, around January 6, but there are now some variables. It is indeed extremely cold in Siberia, but this extremely cold air no longer flows southward. Instead, it flows into the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk after passing through Northeast China, North China, and Northeast China.

Therefore, the "promised" nationwide cooling has now been adjusted to a regional cooling. It can be said that the cold wave has "broken the promise." Not only that, the strong cold air that was originally scheduled to move south on January 11 was moved forward to January 9 and its intensity was greatly weakened, turning into a general cold air.

Generally speaking, in the coming week, although the cold air will bring temperature fluctuations, most of the country will still be warm. Among them, Guangdong, Hainan and the northwest are significantly warmer, while the temperature in the south of the Yangtze River will drop with the increase of rain.

In comparison, the westerly belt in Europe and the United States has begun to change. On the morning of January 3, northern Sweden reached -43.6 degrees, which was the lowest January temperature in Sweden since 1999. Starting from January 8, Europe will usher in the strongest cold wave this winter; then from mid-January, southern Canada and the United States will also usher in the strongest cold wave this winter.

source | 中国气象爱好者、中国天气网

Our country's down jacket exports to Russia in 2023 are far from satisfactory

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, the total import and export volume between China and Russia from January to November was US$218.176 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. Among them, China's exports to Russia were US$100.336 billion, an increase of 50.2%, showing that Russia's demand for Chinese goods has increased dramatically under international sanctions.

In terms of down jackets, a total of 2.186 million pieces were exported during this period, a year-on-year increase of 48%, and the export value was 633 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%.

However, there is still a certain gap between the export situation so far and that before 2019. Moreover, after September every year, the export trend will decrease month by month. For example, in November this year, only 59,000 down jackets of various types were exported to Russia, a decrease of 56% compared to the same period last year.

In addition, according to the customs department, Russia will open the import of Chinese down and feathers at the end of April 2022, allowing the import of down and feathers that have been heat-treated at 70°C and above.

However, it was not until December 2022 that our country's down and feather exports to Russia made a breakthrough. The export quantity for the month was 18,038 kilograms, and the export value was 193,547 yuan. From January to November 2023, my country's down and feather exports to Russia were 178.9 tons, with an export value of 2.019 million yuan.

Overall, the potential of our country's export trade to Russia is still quite large, because these commodities are still in short supply in the Russian market. The market share of down jackets, coats and jackets made of synthetic fabrics, down and feathers is said to have increased compared to the natural fur favored by Russians.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

The U.S. ISM manufacturing index continued to shrink in December, and the apparel industry shrank.

On Wednesday, data released by ISM showed that although the ISM manufacturing index in the United States improved in December compared with November, it shrank for the 14th consecutive month, and weak orders were a significant drag, indicating that the downturn in the manufacturing industry is still continuing and is far from recovering.

The ISM manufacturing index in the United States in December was 47.4 (50 is the dividing line between prosperity and contraction), which was expected to be 47.1 and the previous value was 46.7. The data hit a multi-year low in June this year, and then recovered to a certain extent. By September, it reached the best level in nearly a year. However, it fell again in October, erasing most of the improvement.

Analysts say that high interest rates continue to hit the commodity production sector of the U.S. economy. U.S. manufacturing has stalled as high borrowing costs and falling demand for goods have forced companies to reconsider capital spending plans. In this report, 16 of the 18 industries shrank, and only one showed growth.

Clothing, leather and related products (including down products) industry report: New orders have shrunk, manufacturing output has declined, employment has not changed, supplier deliveries have not changed, own inventories have decreased, customer inventories are too high, and raw material prices have not changed. , there is no change in the backlog of orders.

source | 华尔街见闻、ISM

Market news situation

This week’s news is mixed with good news and bad news, and the market trend is still unclear.

During the 53rd week (12/25-12/31), the industry estimates that the average number of ducklings emerging is approximately 2.5 million birds per day, a significant decrease compared to the previous week. Judging from the current time period, the northern duck industry is gradually approaching the suspension or parking period, and the number of hatchlings may continue to decline.

January 6 will enter the Xiaohan solar term, but expectations for a warm winter are currently increasing. Not only did the expected nationwide cooling fail to come as expected, but there is also a major recovery that is rare in the same period in history and will sweep across the country. On the other side of the world, Europe and the United States will encounter a cold wave. On the 4th local time, the temperature in some areas of Moscow set a new record for the same period in 74 years.

Recently, more and more textile companies have received new orders, and foreign trade orders are showing signs of rebound. Major down OEMs also expect orders to resume growth next year, and predict that order demand will gradually turn positive from the second quarter.

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