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Market Weekly Report | Mid-to-high-end down jackets have broken the market, and the demand for goose down has increased; a new round of recovery will begin, and the "19" holiday may end in a warmer state.

2023-12-24 来源：金绒浏览量：1326

Summary

The market will generally rise in the 52nd week of 2023 (12.18-12.24).

Under the continuous offensive of cold waves, our country has recently experienced widespread freezing weather, which has created good conditions for the sales of down products. According to reports from many parties, the main factor behind this round of price increases for down jackets is the breakup of mid- to high-end down jackets, and the demand for goose down has also continued to rise.

With the arrival of the winter solstice, our country has entered winter according to meteorological standards, and the coldest nine days of the year have begun. However, at the same time, a new round of continued warming will start from north to south, and this year's "19" may end on the warm side.

In addition, November export data shows that European and American countries began to expand their demand for down under the influence of the cold wave. Among them, our country's down exports to European countries accounted for 41% of the total export volume that month.

Good news this week

Things must go to extremes, and the possibility of returning to La Niña in 2024 is greatly increased

On December 14, local time, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reported that there is a 54% chance of a "historically strong" El Niño phenomenon during the season from November to January this year. The intensity of this phenomenon has the potential to rank among the top five in history, and looking ahead, El Niño will transition to neutral between April and June 2024.

It is important to note that by the July-September 2024 period, La Niña and Neutral become almost equally likely, with El Niño a distant third. In the Prediction Center's historical record, most (but not all) stronger El Niño events have been followed by La Niña events.

A persistent El Niño could bring more storms and colder weather to the southern United States from December to February, while milder weather could occur in northern states and parts of Canada.

According to earlier predictions by the meteorological department, the temperature in most parts of my country this winter will be close to or higher than normal for the same period of the year. The previous winter will be warmer, the following winter will be close to normal, and there will be more precipitation in the south；In the late winter (January-February 2024), there will be more cold air processes affecting our country.

source | 金绒采编自NOAA、ENSO博客

Down and feather export statistics of major provinces and cities in 2023 - large growth in November

According to China Customs data, from January to November 2023, Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers.

From January to November, Zhejiang Province exported 12,831 tons of down and feathers, a 25% decrease from last year; the export value was 1.549 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a decrease of 30% from last year.

From January to November 2023, Anhui Province ranked second in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers. In November alone, Anhui Province's export volume of down and feathers ranked first in the country, with a month-on-month increase of 20%, but a year-on-year decrease of 24% in November last year.

From January to November, Anhui Province exported 12,091 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 25% year-on-year; the export value was 994 million yuan, a decrease of 26% year-on-year.

Compared with the previous month, Jiangsu and Hunan's down and feather exports both experienced significant growth in November, while Guangdong's exports were basically the same.

From January to November, Jiangsu Province exported 3,512 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 16% from the same period last year; the export value was 471 million yuan, a decrease of 22% from the same period last year.

From January to November, Guangdong Province exported 1,480 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 30% from the same period last year; the export value was 193 million yuan, a decrease of 19% from the same period last year.

From January to November, Hunan Province exported 852 tons of down and feathers, an increase of 55% year-on-year; the export value was 425 million yuan, an increase of 61% year-on-year.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

The trading volume of Pinghu down jackets has been rising steadily, and it has now become the first-line "top brand" this winter.

In addition to the astonishing number of merchants operating at the large and small stalls in Pinghu China Garment City, the transaction volume of down jackets has been rising steadily, and the transaction volume has been soaring. It has become the "top trend" in the front line this winter.

According to statistics from the management, in October this year, nearly 60,000 merchants poured into Pinghu China Garment City every day; in November, the average daily flow of merchants was around 90,000, and it exceeded 110,000 during peak hours. In December, merchants’ enthusiasm continued unabated. This lively scene is expected to last until the end of January.

In terms of sales volume, this year's report card is even more impressive. Since the sales season, Pinghu·China Garment City has sold 100 million down jackets, with a sales volume of 20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%. It is expected that the annual sales volume this year will exceed 150 million pieces, with sales exceeding 30 billion yuan.

"This autumn and winter, there is a big temperature difference between the north and the south. Previously, there were more customers in the north. But starting this week, the temperature in the south has dropped sharply. The sales market has suddenly expanded, so the factory is working hard to restock. "

Zhang Weijuan, a merchant at No. 11 West 1st Street, China Garment City, Pinghu, said that in addition to the customers who come to the store every day to choose styles, some familiar customers will also make video calls to see the styles and place orders. It is normal to receive 3,000 to 4,000 orders a day. During peak hours, 5,000 pieces is not surprising.

With the launch of the 15,000-square-meter Pinghu Douyin e-commerce live broadcast base, Douyin’s only down jacket e-commerce live broadcast base in the country has been settled. The down jacket industry in Pinghu City is transforming seasonal "Internet celebrity" into "ever-lasting popularity" throughout the year.

source | 今日平湖

The country is ushering in "quick freezing" weather, and down jackets may dominate the screen again

Recently, snow has fallen in many places across the country, and even the south has entered winter overnight. This makes the textile people who "depend on the weather" feel happy, and the opportunity to increase sales of winter clothing fabrics has come again!

The current textile market has basically entered the final stage, and the sales of gray fabrics are moderately large. The shipment of linings increased slightly, and orders for down jackets and cotton clothing fabrics were gradually replenished.

Now this wave of cold air can be said to have come at just the right time. On the one hand, the previous wave of cold air was short-lived, and the temperature rose before some people had time to buy winter clothes, and the urgent need was no longer there; on the other hand, the current wave of cold air is very severe, and people are bound to have purchase needs.

Online sales of clothing are particularly prominent this year. Live broadcasts on major platforms continue to grow. As the temperature drops, online sales will definitely pick up again. Depending on the sales situation, the clothing side will also replenish orders in small batches, but this type of replenishment should be faster.

source | 绸都网

Bad news this week

The new coronavirus variant JN.1 is trending! Experts say there may be a peak of new coronavirus infections around New Year's Day

In November 2023, a total of 3.761 million pieces of down clothing were exported, a decrease of 22% from October this year; the export value was 666 million yuan, a decrease of 39% from October this year.

Down jacket export list for November 2023

商品名称	数量 (万件)	人民币 (亿元)	数量同比去年	金额同比去年
棉制男羽绒服	40.4	0.6	-70.0%	-65.3%
化纤制男羽绒服	106.6	2.28	-18.2%	-29.8%
棉制女羽绒服	25.0	0.37	-77.3%	-70.9%
化纤制女羽绒服	204.1	3.42	-12.6%	-28.2%

Export situation of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export situation of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

It can be seen from the data that the export of down jackets is in the peak season, but it showed a downward trend early in June and no longer reached its peak in July-August as in previous years. At present, the downward trend continues again, and the peak season may have ended early. The overall export volume in November fell by 38% year-on-year.

Looking at the situation in the past nine years, September is basically the end of the annual export season, and the export volume of down jackets will decrease month by month thereafter. At the same time, the export of cotton down jackets has been affected by China's ban on the overseas circulation of cotton, and the overall export situation is not as good as in previous years.

In terms of imports, in November 2023, a total of 400,000 pieces of down clothing were imported, a decrease of 50.2% from the previous month; the import value was 596 million yuan, a decrease of 24.0% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Market news situation

This week’s news is more positive than negative.

During the 51st week (12/11-12/17), the industry estimates that the average number of ducklings emerging is approximately 8.9 million birds per day, a significant decrease compared to the previous week. At present, duck seedlings are affected by rain and snow, and the number of seedlings is limited. In addition, the time period is gradually approaching the parking period, and the number of hatchings is showing a decreasing trend.

Weather models from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate that after El Niño rapidly recedes, ocean surface water temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific may further cool, potentially re-forming La Niña (which may create a cold winter in East Asia). For now, the forecast is not very accurate, but El Niño will gradually weaken early next year.

According to customs statistics, in November this year, the export of down and feathers used for filling increased, while the downward trend in the export of down clothing slowed down slightly, but its export quantity and value both dropped by about 40% year-on-year.

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