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Weekly Market Report | As the "Double Twelve" is approaching, sales of down products are reaching a peak again / production is at full capacity, and down enterprise inventories are at a low level

2023-12-10 来源：金绒浏览量：2006

Summary

In the 50th week of 2023 (12.4-12.10), the market is generally stable, with white duck down falling slightly.

After experiencing the "shopping" of "Double 11", facing the ensuing "Double 12", consumers have become more rational, so the sales situation of down jackets has gradually eased, and the sales of down jackets have gradually eased. The market has also returned to stability. Relatively speaking, white goose down is still in short supply and prices are high.

However, the recent warming in central and eastern our country has entered the sprint stage, which has had a certain impact on the sales of down products. Fortunately, the reversal of cold and warm air is about to take place. Affected by the strong cold air, North China will experience the largest heavy snowfall since this winter. Then from the 14th to the 17th, strong cold air will affect most of the country.

In terms of US dollars, our country's total export value increased by 0.5% year-on-year in November this year, ending the "six consecutive black" trend, and the Sino-US trade sector has also shown a rebound in consecutive months. Since the United States is my country's largest single export market, this rebound has a great impact on my country's overall export situation, and the same is true for the export of down and its products.

Good news this week

Down processing companies are operating at full capacity and inventories are at low levels

As a raw material for down jackets, the price of down has increased significantly recently, and down processing companies are also producing at full capacity.

In a down processing company in Xuancheng, Anhui Province, multiple production lines are constantly in busy operation. The person in charge said that the company mainly produces duck down, with a daily output of about 6.8 tons. Due to increased demand, the ex-factory price of duck down has recently increased by about 10% compared with the beginning of the year.

According to the chairman of the company, it is currently the peak production season and the factory is operating at full capacity. There was originally a small amount of previously washed down in stock here, but it has basically been digested, so now we can only send it out as soon as it is washed.

At another local down processing company, trucks waiting to be loaded are already lined up at the door of the factory. The person in charge of the company said that the prices of duck down and goose down have increased this year, and they are shipping every day. From January to October this year, they have completed the production of last year, and the inventory is already at a low level.

The general manager of the company said that at this time last year, the shipment volume of down was already very small, only a few tons a day, but this year there are still more than 20 tons shipped a day, and sales have increased by more than 20% compared with the same period last year.

Industry insiders said that due to the influence of supply and demand, the price of down may remain high from the end of this year to the beginning of next year.

source | 央视财经

Down jacket sales hit another peak! Sales volume increased by 20% to 30% year-on-year

At around 7 o'clock in the evening, in a company in Keqiao, Zhejiang, the anchor was introducing the company's new down jacket products this year. The person in charge said that they have recently entered the peak sales season for down jackets, and they have specially launched online live broadcasts. In addition, the customer flow in offline stores has also increased significantly.

Fang Xiaohua, an operator at Huangyuan Market in Yiwu, Zhejiang, said that starting from December 1, sales have increased in the past few days than before, and new customers arriving at the store every day have also increased, about 10% more than before.

According to local business owners, although the price of down jackets has increased this year, the overall sales volume is good. Men's models priced between 200 yuan and 300 yuan have relatively large shipments, while women's models are most popular in the range of 400 yuan to 500 yuan. In addition, compared with previous years, some brown and orange down jackets have become more and more popular in the market this year, accounting for almost half of shipments.

Shu Qiang, a market operator in Huangyuan Market in Yiwu, Zhejiang, said that this year, styles with overall wholesale prices of 200 yuan to 300 yuan were sold more. A down jacket is on average 20 yuan to 30 yuan more expensive than in previous years, and sales increased by 20% to 30% year-on-year.

source | 央视财经

The total import and export value returned to positive growth month-on-month in November, and the decline in clothing exports further narrowed

According to news from the General Administration of Customs on December 7, calculated in RMB (the same below), in the first 11 months of this year, my country’s total import and export value was 37.96 trillion yuan, which was the same as the same period last year. Among them, exports were 21.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.3%; imports were 16.36 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.5%; the trade surplus was 5.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8%.

In November this year, my country's total import and export value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. Among them, exports were 2.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; the trade surplus was 490.82 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5%.

Lu Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said that entering the fourth quarter, positive factors for my country's foreign trade development have continued to increase. Imports and exports have increased year-on-year for two consecutive months, and the stable and positive development trend continues to be consolidated.

Analysts said that the export growth rate turned positive in line with market expectations, mainly due to the sharp decline in the export base in the same period last year. On a month-on-month basis, exports in November increased by 6.3% from the previous month, which was basically the same as the month-on-month average of 6.7% in the past ten years. This means that the overall export trend in November was stable, but the situation of weak external demand has not changed significantly.

In November, my country's top three export markets were the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the United States and the European Union.Among them, exports to ASEAN fell by 7.1%, a narrowing of 8.0 percentage points; exports to the United States increased by 7.3% year-on-year, an increase of 15.5 percentage points, ending the previous 15 consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth; exports to the EU fell by 14.5% year-on-year, expanding by 1.9% percentage points.

In November, my country's textile and apparel exports to the world were 169.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% and a month-on-month increase of 3%. Among them, textile exports were 79.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and a month-on-month increase of 3.8%; clothing exports were 90.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, and a month-on-month increase of 2.4%.

source | 金绒采编自海关总署、界面新闻

As "Double Twelve" approaches, orders from down jacket processing companies increase

As the sales of down jackets enter the peak season, upstream processing companies are also busy rushing orders. In a down jacket manufacturing company in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, workers are rushing to make a batch of orders for Shenzhen.

The person in charge said that since the beginning of this year, the factory has been operating at full capacity, with a monthly output of about 30,000 pieces. The production work for the first order was basically completed some time ago, and as the Double Twelve Festival approaches, they have received orders from many customers one after another.

Qiu Juwei, deputy general manager of the company, said that from October to December now, customers have been placing repeat orders one after another. The number of repeat orders is now about 1,000 to 4,000 pieces per style, an increase of 50% over previous years.

Xia Tian is the person in charge of a down jacket company in Keqiao, Zhejiang. He said that the overall order volume of the factory this year has increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and the styles demanded by customers are also more diverse. "For example, in previous years we usually produced more than 100 styles, and this year we produced more than 200 styles. The sales of Guochao down jackets last year were less than 110,000. This year, the number of Guochao down jackets has reached 270,000. "

This year, as the price of down, especially goose down, has increased significantly, some down jacket manufacturers have also raised their ex-factory prices accordingly. Qiu Juwei said that the price of down in a piece of clothing has increased by about 30% to 40%, and ultimately the price of ready-made clothing has increased by about 10%.

source | 央视财经

Bad news this week

Global November high temperatures set another record, with 2023 confirmed to be the hottest year in history

After an "abnormal" November became the sixth consecutive month to break high temperature records, 2023 will definitely become the hottest year on record. There are still two days in November where the temperature is 2 degrees Celsius higher than before the industrial revolution, and such a record has not been recorded for a single day in the past.

The European Union's climate monitoring agency, the Copernicus Climate Change Service, recently stated that last month it broke the previous November high temperature record, making the global average temperature in 2023 1.46 degrees Celsius higher than before the industrial revolution.

According to data from the agency, during the three months of autumn in the Northern Hemisphere from September to November, the temperature reached a record high, and the magnitude was "considerable." In addition, although global temperatures in the second half of 2023 will be affected by El Niño, so far the phenomenon has caused fewer "abnormalities" than in 2015-2016.

"As long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, we cannot expect any different results." Agency director Bunotamp said, "Temperatures will continue to rise, and the impacts of heat waves and droughts will continue to increase."

source | 中时新闻网

The first batch of meat ducks raised after heavy rains and floods in Xian County, Cangzhou were put on the market

Xian County, Cangzhou is an important meat duck breeding base in the country. Some farmers were seriously damaged by heavy rains and floods in August this year. Thanks to the joint efforts of local government departments, enterprises and farmers, the county's livestock and poultry production has basically returned to pre-disaster levels, and the first batch of post-disaster meat ducks has been put on the market.

So far, Xian County has completed the repair of 137 livestock farms and restocked pens to raise 612,000 more poultry. The county's livestock and poultry production has basically returned to pre-disaster levels.

In Hebei Leshou Duck Industry Co., Ltd., a batch of freshly purchased and slaughtered meat ducks are being dried on the equipment in the roast duck billet production workshop. These 55,000 ducks come from the three townships of Zhangcun, Linhe and Xiaopingwang in Xian County that were severely affected by the disaster. They are the first batch of ducks raised by meat duck farmers after the disaster resumed production.

"Look, how strong these ducks are! After more than 20 days of raising 16,000 ducklings on October 15, each duck weighs three pounds." said the farmer.

She said that she returned to the farm on August 10. At that time, the government organized personnel to carry out disinfection, drainage, dredging and other work on the village environment. Technical personnel from Hebei Leshou Duck Industry Company also came to the farm to conduct The duck shed was provided with technical guidance on disinfecting ducks and all dead ducks were treated harmlessly.

"Around November 24, the meat ducks will be put on the market again." She said, "Based on the profit of 3 yuan per meat duck, I can earn 48,000 yuan from these 16,000 meat ducks. By the end of the year, we can raise another batch, and life will definitely get better day by day!"

source | 冀时客户端、献县圈

Down jacket bases are gradually becoming deserted, which has also poured cold water on the textile market

This year's down jackets can be said to be under attack from both sides. On the one hand, the share of the clothing market is constantly being seized. For example, military coats and jackets have become popular items; on the other hand, the weather is never good enough. Many southern areas cannot reach the temperature to wear down jackets, so they naturally have no purchasing power.

The sudden drop in temperature in November led to a wave of hot sales of down jackets, causing down jacket fabrics and gallbladder fabrics downstream to also sell well. However, this kind of market is only popular for a few days a year, and it is over when the work is done. Recently, various down jacket bases have gradually become deserted, which has also poured cold water on the textile market.

As the hard currency of the market, gallbladder is extremely sensitive to market conditions. It was sold like crazy in early November and the price soared. Now sales are down and the price has plummeted.

As the weather vane of the textile market, the most direct manifestation of dyeing factories is that they are gradually less busy. One boss said: "The dyeing factory was busy for a while, but now it has calmed down." Another boss also said: "Our dyeing factory delivery time is quite normal now, and there is no delay problem. "

As the market ends, the New Year is coming. In previous years, at this point, most weaving companies would prepare to stock up on raw materials and start using them after the start of the new year. However, in recent years, due to public health factors, frequent fluctuations in raw material prices and weak market conditions, this habit of weaving enterprises has gradually disappeared.

In fact, there is another reason why the market moves quickly. Every order-making boss in the market said that this time it was a market order. After all, it takes at least a month to place an order, and they have no time to react to the fast-moving market conditions, so they are not affected at all.

source | 布工厂、绸都网

Market news situation

In terms of news this week, the good news slightly outweighs the bad news.

During the 49th week (11/27-12/3), the industry estimates that the average number of duck seedlings emerging is about 9.1 million birds per day, which is an increase from the previous week. At the same time, meat duck breeding in Xian County, Cangzhou has returned to pre-disaster levels, which may allow the supply of raw wool to increase again.

In the past period, the finished down product market has already entered the off-season, but this year, due to the Double Eleven sales of down products far exceeding expectations, especially the hot replenishment of Pinghu down jackets, the sales performance has increased a lot compared with the same period last year. Industry insiders believe that down prices may remain high until early next year.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service reports that 6 months and 2 quarters of average temperatures have set new records in 2023, and 2023 will become the hottest year on record. The person in charge of the agency said that the temperature will continue to rise.

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