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Weekly Market Report | Double Eleven kicked off, and down products sales achieved another good result; high temperatures are expected in December, and the prospects for the peak sales season are worrying

2023-11-13 来源：金绒浏览量：1430

Summary

In the 46th week of 2023 (11.6-11.12), the market is generally stable, with duck down rising slightly.

The Double Eleven event kicked off last week, with online sales of down products reaching new heights, with down jackets becoming the main force in sales. As a result, the willingness of garment processing factories to replenish orders has gradually increased, and the activity of the finished cashmere market has increased.

The recent weather is also conducive to the promotion of down products. According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, in the coming week, there will be widespread cold weather in most areas of our country, with the cooling in the south being more obvious. However, it should be noted that after the second wave of cold air leaves after the 17th, a big recovery will be around the corner.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in October this year, the national PPI turned from rising to flat, and the year-on-year decline slightly expanded. Among them, the purchase price of textile raw materials increased by 0.1% month-on-month. Compared with the ex-factory prices of the textile and clothing industries, the price space for upstream and downstream industries narrowed slightly, and the pressure on corporate profits increased.

Good news this week

The wholesale volume of down jackets continues to rise, and the purchase price rises slightly

At the Huangyuan Clothing Market in Yiwu, Zhejiang, buyer Ms. Zhong is selecting down jackets. She said that although the weather is not very cold yet, the down jackets in her store have been warmed up, and sales are also increasing, so she will come here every once in a while to pick out some new styles.

Market merchant Fu Bifang said that she started a little earlier than others. Some customers who placed orders in the early stage have already ordered thousands of pieces, and now the goods are still being shipped.

She said that although the weather was colder this year than in previous years, most of the new models were already on the market in early October. As the weather gradually gets colder, wholesale volume has been increasing every day recently, and it is expected that a sales peak will soon usher in.

After visiting a number of wholesalers, we learned that due to the increase in raw material prices this year, the purchase price of down jackets has generally increased. In addition, this year's down jackets have undergone major changes in color, material and style. Fashionable models are more popular, and goose down jackets with better quality have become the mainstream of sales.

Chen Xumin, a market merchant, said that the general labor prices and various material prices have increased a bit. The purchase price has increased by about 3% to 5%, and the purchase price has increased by about 20 yuan per piece, and the higher price is more than 30 yuan.

Huang Hong, a merchant at the market, said that it used to be made of white duck down, but now it is all goose down. The upper body is light, has good warmth retention, and is not bulky.

source | 央视财经

Down jacket manufacturers are operating at full capacity, with goose down filling becoming a trend

At a down jacket production line in Lu'an City, Anhui Province, the person in charge said that the order volume for down jackets has increased significantly this year. In previous years, the last orders for ordinary styles were usually only 30% to 40% of the first order, but here the last orders for a down jacket are twice as much as the first order.

The first order in the down jacket production industry refers to the first batch of orders that merchants have started producing in June. After the product is launched, the order will be repeated around October based on market sales. Usually the first order accounts for the bulk of the annual orders, and the off-season enters after October, but the person in charge said that the market this year is very good, and the number of repeat orders has increased significantly.

Ge Xiaoli, the company's deputy general manager, said that their orders this year have doubled compared to previous years. So far this year, they have received more than 194,000 down jacket processing orders.

At another down jacket manufacturer in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, the person in charge said that in order to complete customer orders on time, the production line is already at full capacity. This year's down jacket orders have increased by 30% compared with the same period last year, and the annual output is expected to be about 300,000 pieces.

The person in charge of the manufacturer also said that today's consumers pay more attention to the quality of down jackets, so many manufacturers have increased the production of goose down jackets.

Ge Xiaoli also believes that down jackets in the past may have been dominated by duck down, but this year many customers have chosen goose down, which has greatly increased comfort.

source | 央视财经

The total number of ducklings at this stage is about 9 million, and it will decrease within the month.

In recent days, the increase in pork prices, the weakening of duck production capacity, and the decrease in the number of ducklings have given the market a boost, bringing a perfect end to the imperfect October and starting a good chapter for November.

Affected by African swine fever, a large amount of pigs have been eliminated in society, and the peak season for pork consumption will begin in mid-to-late November. The arrival of the pickling season and the restoration of confidence have affected pork prices to a certain extent.

Information on the duck sector in November shows that the production capacity of Zhongda white-striped ducks has decreased by 25%, the volume of small white-striped ducks has dropped by 20%, and the cut-up duck has dropped by about 10%. Due to changes in production capacity, the oversupply situation has been effectively alleviated, and inventories have also been digested.

The total number of ducklings will be affected by the elimination of breeding ducks this time and will not increase too much in the next 1-2 months. According to data analysis, the total number of ducklings at this stage remains at about 9 million (will decrease in mid-to-late November), which basically meets about 75% of the slaughterhouse's slaughter volume.

source | 佳合集团营销中心

Cold air brings fire, Double 11 warms economy, manufacturers’ orders double

On November 7, the main products of major clothing brands in Beijing were transformed overnight from thin short-sleeved products, sweatshirts and other products to down jackets and other cold-proof products. A clerk at lululemon’s Sanlitun store said: “New down jackets have been launched in recent days, and many customers who enter the store will take a look at down products first.”

Online sales are also particularly impressive. Vipshop data shows that since the launch of "Double 11", sales of sports down jackets have increased by 35% year-on-year, children's down jacket sales have increased by 24% year-on-year, and men's down jacket sales have increased by more than 20% year-on-year. JD.com’s data during the “Double 11” period shows that the overall transaction volume of JD.com’s down category increased by 120% year-on-year, ranking TOP 1 in sales in the apparel category.

Merchants in the down industry belt in Changshu, Jiangsu and Pinghu, Jiaxing, Zhejiang have been very busy in the past few days. Data shows that during the first wave of Tmall Double 11 sales, 5 million down jackets were sold. After the cooling warning was issued, down jacket sales doubled on November 3. From November 4th to November 6th, Taobao Clothing's sales of women's down jackets increased by more than 55% year-on-year, and the number of buyers increased by 80% year-on-year.

Dress warmly during the day and sleep warmly at night. On Tmall Taobao, the production areas of quilts are mainly concentrated in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Huzhou, Nantong and other places. In terms of sleeping warmth, the cooling has caused a particularly significant explosion in the quilt category. From October 24th to November 3rd, the quilt category on Tmall increased by more than double digits year-on-year.

This year, Tmall is promoting a new goose hibernation experience, and orders for goose down quilts have grown rapidly year-on-year. Taking Luolai's official flagship store as an example, the 95 goose down quilt had a good start during Double Eleven, with a total of nearly 30,000 transactions and sales exceeding 50 million yuan.

Down jacket manufacturers are also working non-stop to meet the deadline. The person in charge of a down jacket factory in Nanjing said that orders for down jackets this year have doubled compared to last year. "We are taking into account both export and domestic sales. The overall demand for cold-resistant products this year is relatively large, and production is almost at full capacity. " A clothing manufacturer in Huizhou, Guangdong also said that current orders for down jackets have increased by about 40% compared with the same period last year.

source | 北京商报、齐鲁壹点

Down manufacturers lament that this year, those making clothing will make money, while those making feathers will not.

Lu'an Ocean Feather Co., Ltd. is a supplier of down products, providing OEM services for many well-known brands such as Bosideng and Fuanna. The manager of the company's raw material business revealed that in the past three or four years, the price of raw materials such as goose down and duck down has increased more significantly than in the past.

According to him, the purchase price of ordinary white goose down last year was 680,000-700,000 yuan/ton, and the price of high-end white goose down was 900,000 yuan/ton. This year, the price of ordinary white goose down is 800,000-850,000 yuan/ton, and the price of high-end white goose down can be as high as 1.2 million yuan/ton. And as the weather gets colder, the price of down continues to rise.

Manager Chu explained that the price fluctuation of raw materials can be traced back to the upstream breeding industry. “In recent years, feed prices have been high, and farmers have suffered a lot of losses, so they have reduced breeding.On the other hand, due to lower pork prices this year, consumer demand for goose and duck meat has decreased, which has also led to a decline in the supply of goose and duck down.

At the same time, on the downstream demand side, brands' demand for high-quality raw materials such as white goose down has increased, which has led to a sharp increase in the price of white goose down this year. “Those who make duvets and down jackets on the market use more goose down than in previous years.” Manager Chu said.

However, rising costs such as raw material prices may not necessarily be reflected in brand pricing. Manager Chu said that brand owners usually place orders with factories at the beginning of the year, and prices are finalized at that time. If raw material prices rise later, the increased costs are mainly borne by the factories.

"Those who make clothing will make money this year, but those who make feathers will not." Manager Chu said.

source | 界面新闻

Bad news this week

Export decline unexpectedly widened in October, especially for textiles and apparel

According to news from the General Administration of Customs on November 7, calculated in RMB (the same below), in the first 10 months of this year, our country’s total import and export value was 34.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. Among them, exports were 19.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.4%; imports were 14.77 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.5%; the trade surplus was 4.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%.

In October this year, our country's total import and export value was 3.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. The growth rate turned positive for the first time after being negative for four consecutive months. Among them, exports were 1.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; the trade surplus was 405.47 billion yuan, narrowing by 27.9%.

Lu Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said that at present, the accumulation of positive factors in our country's foreign trade field has increased, driving the year-on-year growth of imports and exports in October. According to the latest results of the China Customs Trade Prosperity Statistics Survey, the proportion of companies that are optimistic about future imports and exports has increased.

However, in October, calculated in US dollars, our country's total foreign trade exports fell by 6.4% year-on-year. This is due to the continued decline in the overall price of our country's export commodities, the slowdown in overseas demand and the obvious impact of last year's high base.

Analysts pointed out that the performance of foreign trade exports is expected to gradually improve in the next few months, mainly due to the complete range of our country's foreign trade categories, continuous optimization of structure, and sufficient foreign trade resilience; overseas has entered the traditional peak season of consumption, and last year's base is expected to gradually fall.

In October, our country's textile and apparel exports to the world were 164.88 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year, and 12.5% month-on-month. Among them, textile exports were 76.9 billion yuan, down 6%, and month-on-month decreases 8.1%. Clothing exports were 87.98 billion yuan, down 10.8% month-on-month. down 16%.

source | 金绒采编自海关总署、金融界

The winter clothing season is a little late, but it may extend to January next year

On November 5, the highest daytime temperature in Zhejiang Province rose to 30°C to 32°C in most areas except coastal areas, breaking the record for the warmest November in the year and a rare occurrence in history. However, after the temperature reached its extreme level, the temperature in the province took a big turn on the night of the 5th, with the maximum temperature dropping by more than 10°C. It was like a change of seasons the next day.

However, we learned from the Provincial Meteorological Bureau that the temperature will slowly rise again from the 8th, and it is expected that the temperature will still be high throughout the province in November. Faced with abnormal temperatures, many people wonder whether this winter is a "warm winter" or a "cold winter"?

At that time in previous years, it was already the peak season for winter clothing sales, but this year's peak season may be a bit "late". As the largest first-level wholesale market for down jackets in the country, merchants in Pinghu China Garment City were busy taking orders and stocking up early in the morning, and packages of express packages piled up into a hill.

“Now is not the time for the largest number of orders. Because the temperature is relatively high this year, many customers are afraid to blindly take too much spot goods and are relatively cautious in purchasing."Zhang Binfei, deputy general manager of Pinghu China Garment City, said, "This year's New Year is late, and the winter clothing season may extend from December to January next year. "

Many buyers have found that the pricing of winter clothing is generally lower this year, and major platforms offer greater discounts on winter clothing than in previous years. Some items of the same quality are even nearly half cheaper than before. Whether this year is a "warm winter" or a "cold winter", now may be a good time to buy winter clothes.

source | 浙江日报

2023/2024 winter climate trend prediction - the temperature in the first winter will be higher, and the cold air will become more active in the second winter (for reference only)

On November 3, the China Meteorological Administration held a press conference for November 2023. At the press conference, Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, said that the national average temperature in October was 12.2°C, 1.6°C higher than the same period in normal years, and the highest for the same period since 1961.

In November, temperatures are expected to be relatively high in most parts of the country, with temperatures in western Inner Mongolia, southwestern North China, northwest Huanghuai, eastern and southwestern regions being 1 to 2°C higher;The temperature in northeastern Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, northern Xinjiang and other places was 0.5~1℃ lower than the same period in normal years.

Jia Xiaolong mentioned that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has entered an El Niño state, and an El Niño event is about to form. The El Niño event is expected to continue in the winter of 2023/2024, with a peak intensity of 1.5~2°C, a moderate intensity, and an eastern type.

Affected by this, the East Asian winter monsoon is weak, and the temperature in most of central and eastern our country is higher than the same period in normal years. On the other hand, it is easy to cause excessive rainfall in the southern region. Statistics show that in the context of El Niño events, winter temperatures fluctuate greatly, and the number of cold air events that affect our country is often high. In addition, our country may experience periods of low-temperature rain and snow in winter.

The model forecast from the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration predicts that from December to next February, temperatures will be mainly high in most parts of our country, which means that after the warm autumn, our country may continue to be warm in winter.

It is expected that the cold air intensity affecting our country will be weak in the first winter (December 2023), and the temperature in most parts of the country will be higher than the same period of the normal year; the cold air activity in the second winter (January to February 2024) will become more active, close to the same period of the normal year , the temperature in northern Northeast China, eastern Inner Mongolia, western Southwest, Tibet and other places was lower than normal for the same period.

source | 国家气候中心

Market news situation

This week’s news is more positive than negative.

The number of duck seedlings on the supply side continues to decrease. During the 45th week (10/30-11/5), the industry estimates that the average duck seedling production capacity is about 9.3-9.5 million birds per day, and in the next 1-2 months There probably won't be much growth. At present, the impact of reduced slaughtering capacity is gradually emerging, reducing the supply of raw material wool.

In the past three or four years, the price of down has increased more significantly than in the past, but the cost of raw materials may not be reflected in the brand's pricing. The orders are all finalized at the beginning of the year when down prices are low, and the subsequent increased costs are mainly borne by the factory. It can be said that those making down jackets will make money this year, while those making feathers will not.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service announced on November 8 that October this year was the hottest October on record, 0.85 degrees higher than the 1991-2020 average. Under the background of El Niño, the temperature in most of central and eastern our country is higher than the same period of the year, leaving unfavorable factors for the subsequent sales of down products.

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