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Weekly Market Report | The tendency of warm winter is becoming more and more obvious, and the brand is facing adverse effects; white duck breeding is facing losses, and the number of seedlings continues to decrease month-on-month.

2023-10-29 来源：金绒浏览量：600

Summary

In the 44th week of 2023 (10.23-10.29), the market was generally stable, with white goose down rising slightly.

Affected by the previous cooling and Double 11, down products began to sell well.The down jacket consumer market shows that women's clothing, children's clothing and sportswear are hot spots this year. White goose down has a large demand in the women's clothing category, so the price has slightly increased again with the support of replenishment orders. The market for other types of down jackets is still sluggish.

On October 27, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in the first three quarters, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was flat year-on-year, showing that market demand continued to improve and industrial product prices gradually recovered.Among them, the total profit of the "leather, fur, feather and their products and shoemaking industry" increased from 26.39 billion yuan in August to 30.23 billion yuan in September.

Recently, the commercial duck breeding, slaughtering and processing links have been facing loss pressure, and there are cases of small-sized hatching eggs being converted into commercial eggs.Therefore, the current output of white ducks continues to decrease month-on-month. The industry estimates that the average number is about 9.6-9.8 million birds per day, and the supply of white duck feathers may decrease accordingly.

Good news this week

"Down bedding" export statistics in September - peak during the year

Starting from 2022, the tariffs related to down bedding have been adjusted, and a new sub-heading of "down and feather quilts and bedspreads (hereinafter referred to as down quilts)" has been added.And the scope of "other bedding and similar products filled with down or feathers (hereinafter referred to as other down bedding)" will be adjusted accordingly, and only products such as cushions, back cushions, and pillows will be counted.

Duvet：

From January to September 2023, a total of 11,039.1 tons (4.68 million pieces) of "down quilts" were exported, a year-on-year increase of 37%; the export value was 1.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%.

In September 2023, 1,760.4 tons of "down quilts" were exported, a year-on-year increase of 29%; the export value was 177 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%.

In September 2023, the United States continued to be our country's largest trading partner for "down quilt" exports, accounting for 40% of total exports this month, a slightly expanded share.Among them, the export quantity was 712.2 tons, an increase of 67% year-on-year and an increase of 13% month-on-month in August; the export value was 60 million yuan, an increase of 46% year-on-year and a decrease of 5% month-on-month.

Japan was the second largest trading partner during the month, accounting for 9% of total exports; followed by Germany at 7%, Australia and the United Kingdom at 6% each.

Other down bedding:

According to China Customs data, a total of 27,900 tons of "other down bedding" were exported from January to September 2023, a decrease of 18% compared with last year; the export value was 1.257 billion yuan, a decrease of 26% compared with last year.

In September 2023, 3,819.7 tons of "other down bedding" were exported, an increase of 18% over last year; the export value was 183 million yuan, an increase of 7% over last year.

In September 2023, the United States was still our country's largest trading partner for exports of "other down bedding", accounting for 48% of total exports this month, a slightly smaller share.Among them, the export quantity was 1815.7 tons, an increase of 30% year-on-year; the export value was 62 million yuan, an increase of 2% year-on-year.

Canada was the second largest trading partner during the month, accounting for 10% of total exports; followed by the United Kingdom at 7%, Australia and Germany at 5% each.Thailand, which made its first appearance last month, followed closely, accounting for 4%.

Down bedding (quilt + other bedding)

From January to September 2023, a total of 39,000 tons of "down bedding" were exported, a decrease of 8% year-on-year; the export value was 2.363 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year.

Down bedding saw growth in the third quarter due to seasonal changes in demand from European, American, Japanese and Australian consumers.According to agency estimates, U.S. online holiday sales during this year’s Christmas holiday shopping season (November 1 to December 31) will reach $221.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%.But for U.S. retailers, the peak season is becoming increasingly challenging.

source | 金绒整理自海关数据

JD.com’s 11.11 autumn and winter warm clothing is hot-selling, and the turnover of sports down jackets has increased 39 times year-on-year.

At 8 p.m. on October 23, JD.com’s 11.11 event will feature a large number of cheap and good products “on sale now.” Autumn and winter clothing are being refreshed, and the turnover of more than 100 brands in the first 10 minutes exceeded the entire day last year.

Many categories of autumn and winter warm clothing are selling well. Among them, the sales volume of women's down jackets increased by more than 6 times year-on-year, and that of men's down jackets increased by more than 7 times.A number of clothing brands performed well, with Heilan House's turnover increasing threefold year-on-year and Bosideng's turnover increasing fivefold year-on-year.

The popularity of outdoor sports in autumn and winter continues unabated. In the 10 minutes before 8pm on the 23rd, the turnover of sports down jackets increased 39 times year-on-year.International sports brands are favored by consumers. Among them, Adidas's turnover increased 42 times year-on-year, Colombia's turnover increased 50 times year-on-year, North Face's turnover increased 16 times year-on-year, and Nike's 10-minute turnover exceeded the entire day last year.

Jingdong 11.11 is so cheap that you can buy it with your eyes closed, and the extremely cost-effective products in the fashion category are recognized by consumers.In the 10 minutes before the opening of the store at 8pm on October 23, the transaction volume of lightweight down jackets as low as 39 yuan increased three times year-on-year.In addition, good products from industrial belts are highly sought after, and the transaction volume of Jiaxing down industry belt products in the first 10 minutes increased by 300% year-on-year.

source | 新浪时尚微博

No more space! The peak season for exports to the United States is coming?

Recently, there are market rumors that the container shipping market has experienced cabin explosions on many routes such as the US line, the Middle East line and the Southeast Asia line.According to responses from many freight forwarding companies, this is indeed the case, and prices on these routes are currently rebounding.Some listed cargo owners said that there will be no space for the US line by the end of the month.

However, multiple freight forwarders revealed that although there are many routes with full capacity, this is basically the reason why liner companies have reduced their ship capacity. "Liner companies hope to push up next year's (long-term association) freight rates, so they reduce shipping capacity and raise freight rates at the end of the year."

Some freight forwarders further stated that since the explosion was man-made, the explosion was not a real increase in cargo volume.As for the current degree of cabin explosion, the freight forwarder revealed: "It's just a little bit bigger than normal, not too much."

The aforementioned freight forwarder said that there is also the reason for the concentrated demand from cargo owners during Black Friday and Christmas in the United States.“In previous years, U.S. Black Friday and Christmas shipments were mostly in the peak season from July to September, but this year there may be a wait-and-see situation and some delays.”

source | 财联社

Good news this week

Down clothing import and export statistics (September) - barely maintained

In September 2023, a total of 6.666 million pieces of down clothing were exported, an increase of 1.2% from August this year; the export value was 1.377 billion yuan, an increase of 0.1% from August this year.

Down jacket export list for September 2023

商品名称	数量 (万件)	人民币 (亿元)	数量同比去年	金额同比去年
棉制男羽绒服	68.2	0.99	-46.7%	-40.9%
化纤制男羽绒服	216.9	5.14	-2.7%	-3.8%
棉制女羽绒服	50.6	0.75	-29.4%	-29.0%
化纤制女羽绒服	330.9	6.90	-12.7%	-16.6%

Export situation of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export situation of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

It can be seen from the data that the export of down jackets is in the peak season. However, after four months of continuous growth, there has been an extremely obvious decline and it no longer reaches its peak in July-August as in previous years.At present, the downward trend has been temporarily contained and the peak season is barely maintained. The export volume in September fell by 17% compared with the same period last year, which was smaller than the decline in August.

Looking at the situation in the past nine years, exports in September are basically when the peak season of the year begins to end. After that, the export volume of down jackets will decrease month by month.

In terms of imports, in September 2023, a total of 1.137 million pieces of down clothing were imported, an increase of 4.8% from the previous month; the import value was 844 million yuan, a decrease of 15.0% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Down and feather export statistics from major provinces and cities from January to September - return to sluggishness

According to China Customs data, from January to September 2023, Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers. However, this year's export volume fell sharply and was far less than in previous years.

From January to September, Zhejiang Province exported 10,615 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 27% year-on-year; the export value was 1.362 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a decrease of 29% year-on-year.

From January to September 2023, Anhui Province ranked second in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers.

1-8月，安徽省出口羽绒羽毛 9905 吨，同比去年减少28%；出口金额为 8.37 亿元，同比去年减少29%。

From January to August, Anhui Province exported 9,905 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 28% year-on-year; the export value was 837 million yuan, a decrease of 29% year-on-year.

In addition, the down and feather exports of Jiangsu, Guangdong and Hunan all rebounded in August, but returned to the downturn in September due to holiday factors.

From January to September, Jiangsu Province exported 3,080 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 17% year-on-year; the export value was 416 million yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year.

From January to September, Guangdong Province exported 1,175 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 39% from the same period last year; the export value was 159 million yuan, a decrease of 27% from the same period last year.

From January to September, Hunan Province exported 748 tons of down and feathers, an increase of 63% year-on-year; the export value was 372 million yuan, an increase of 69% year-on-year.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

The cold air is weak and the first cold wave is delayed in the second half of the year

It is currently the frost season, but due to weak cold air, temperatures have been relatively high in most parts of our country recently.Many places, such as Beijing, Shijiazhuang and Handan in Hebei Province, Anyang and Puyang in Henan Province, and Zibo in Shandong Province, have recently broken the record for the highest temperature in late October, with some local records setting a local record of 30℃ at the latest.

Under the influence of cold air on the 26th, the temperature in Northeast China, central and eastern parts of North China, and eastern Huanghuai and other places will drop, and the drop in some areas will exceed 10°C. However, the cooling brought by this cold air is very short-lived, and the warm temperature pattern will continue in most parts of the north.

Compared with the large warmer weather in the north, the south is only slightly warmer due to rainfall, but it is undeniable that both the north and the south are warmer. It is no longer possible for a cold wave to occur in October. The first nationwide cold wave in the second half of this year will not occur until at least November. The first cold wave warning time issued by the Central Meteorological Observatory in the second half of the year, December 4 in the winter of 2018, was the latest in the past 10 years.

Recently, many countries in the northern hemisphere have experienced extreme high temperatures. Among them, Mexico measured 45.9 degrees on October 20, breaking the country's record for the same period and setting a record for the highest temperature in the northern hemisphere. The unseasonal heat wave also hit Eastern and Southern Europe. Hundreds of weather stations broke the highest record for October. The temperature in Moldova, Ukraine and other countries was more than 20 degrees higher than the same period in normal years.

source | 中国天气网、中国气象爱好者

Canada Goose fell to a "historic low": It can no longer be sold in China! Crazy local opening of positions!

The Canadian Competition Bureau recently released a report pointing out that from 2000 to 2020, the competitive intensity of the Canadian economy has experienced a worrying decline. Under the current economic downturn, some brands that Canada was once proud of are also facing a crisis in moving forward. Such as Canada geese.

Bloomberg reports that Canada Goose Holdings Inc.’s stock price has plummeted to an all-time low in recent days. This showed that investors were worried about the future of Canada Goose, which led to a sharp decline in the stock price.

Analysts at UBS, Wells Fargo and Cowen subsequently downgraded their forecasts for the company, citing concerns about Canada Goose's business in China and predicting the negative impact of a mild winter. Wells Fargo analysts say investors are starting to question whether Canada Goose has reached a saturation point.

Canada Goose reportedly saw its biggest sales decline in August. Some time ago, the brand also held a number of warehouse opening events in various cities in Canada, with product prices equivalent to 10% to 40% off the official website. This also reflects that the company may be facing an inventory glut problem.

Also affected by the warm winter weather is the luxury down jacket brand Moncler. The brand recently released a performance forecast, predicting that sales growth in the third quarter will slow down compared to the first half of the year. Its strategy director said earlier that the brand will launch more lightweight and warm products to face more extreme climate events and unpredictable weather.

source | 温尼伯情报站

Market news situation

This week’s news is mixed with good news and bad news, and the market trend is still unclear.

Recently, many countries in the northern hemisphere have experienced extreme high temperatures, and the hottest October in history is about to begin.As the trend of warm winter becomes more and more obvious, high-end down jacket brands Canada Goose and Moncler are expected to slow down their sales growth.

However, a strong wave of cold air is currently brewing and is expected to affect most parts of our country in early November, followed by two waves of cold air from the 12th to the 15th (moderate) and the 18th to the 20th (weak).

Customs data shows that in September this year, our country's exports of down, feathers and their products continued to be sluggish. Although the export of down bedding has achieved encouraging growth, it is still lagging behind previous years. In addition, outdoor products companies said that overseas market performance this year was not particularly good.

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