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Weekly Market Report | Affected by the most widespread and strongest cold air, the cold-proof market is selling well across the board; containers sent to the United States are growing, and bedding exports hit a new high this year

2023-10-22 来源：金绒浏览量：1204

Summary

In the 43rd week of 2023 (10.16-10.22), the market was generally stable, with white goose down rising slightly.

Since the second half of the year, the cold air with the widest scope and strongest intensity is affecting our country. The transition between cold and warm is very obvious, and the market for warmth and cold protection has also been in full swing. At the same time, clothing and home textile brands have entered the "Double Eleven" stocking stage.However, the National Climate Center predicts that the temperature in most areas of our country in November will be close to normal to higher than the same period of the year, and the cold air force will be weak in the first half of the year.

Customs data shows that in September this year, our country's down and feather exports continued to be sluggish, and down clothing exports were barely maintained. Only the export of down bedding achieved encouraging growth, hitting a new high in the US market for the year.At present, the price of white goose down is rising steadily due to the large demand in home textiles and women's clothing categories and the tight supply.

Slaughtering companies have suffered heavy losses recently, but the supply of ducks is still higher than product demand.Slaughtering in the northern region has taken the initiative to control stocking costs. The number of white duck seedlings continues to decrease month-on-month. The industry estimates that the average number is about 9.8-10 million feathers per day, and the supply of white duck feathers may decrease and increase accordingly.

Good news this week

After the Asian Games, Sijiqing clothing launched new down jackets and couldn’t stop packing them

Recently, due to the Asian Games, Sijiqing clothing market has become popular frequently.First, athletes from all over the world came here to bargain and purchase, and even NBA legend "Shark" O'Neal was attracted. Then "Little Dragon Girl" Li Ruotong showed up to shop for clothes.

On October 16, at 8:30 in the morning, the neighborhood was already busy, and all the new autumn and winter styles such as down jackets were on sale.

"YEHEXI" store manager Xiao Li said that judging from the market response this year, many more buyers came from all over the country. "After the Asian Games, people from all over the country knew about our ideas, so they came to purchase. There may be more merchants, with orders of three to four thousand per day. ”

"This year, our overall order volume has increased a lot, reaching about 4,000-5,000 pieces per day, and reaching 10,000 pieces at peak times. ”In the "Sansu Yipin" store, the proprietress Xiaoguo is showing off this year's new down jackets to customers at the store entrance.

Xiaoguo has always insisted on making original brand women's clothing. This year, their brand insists on creating a simple style of pure cotton wide version down jacket, which is mainly breathable and comfortable, and has become a hot item. "Judging from the feedback brought back by customers, the try-on rate is very high, so the replenishment rate is also very high. I think the current market still relies on quality. "

"The market this year is much better than in previous years. The price of our down jackets is more than 200 yuan for short ones and more than 300 yuan for long ones. They are cost-effective and have large shipments. "Xiaoguo said that recently their store has to work overtime until one or two o'clock in the morning to pack goods, because the main store is in Guangzhou, and if there is not enough delivery in the store every day, Guangzhou will be used to deliver the goods.

The person in charge of Xinyifa Shopping Mall said that from the overall situation, both sales and the number of new models have increased significantly compared with last year. “Merchants are generally very optimistic about this year’s market conditions."Down jackets are selling better this year. The number of second-batch merchants, chain store merchants, large supermarkets, etc. has increased a lot, especially merchants from northern China such as Xinjiang and Heilongjiang have returned in large numbers. "

source | 潮新闻、浙江在线

Xuancheng down “floats” to many countries co-building the “Belt and Road”

Facing the new opportunities of jointly building the “Belt and Road”, enterprises are the group that can best feel the warmth of the policy.Xuancheng is the origin of high-quality down in China. More than half of the country's down raw materials and down products come from here, and the down products here are also "floating" to many countries co-building the "One Belt and One Road".

Sun Guanshui, general manager of Anhui Huaying Xintang Down Co., Ltd., said frankly that with the strong support of the customs, the company has actively opened up the markets of Thailand, Malaysia and other "Belt and Road" countries on the basis of the original market. In the first three quarters of this year, the company's output value has exceeded 400 million yuan.

The person in charge of Xuancheng Customs said that they focused on the national laws, regulations, standards and customs clearance policies for the joint construction of the "Belt and Road", and notified down and feather enterprises in the jurisdiction of overseas goods trade control measures, changes in technical regulations, and early warning information. They will also actively respond to corporate certificate needs for personalized declarations and help develop emerging markets.

As the foreign trade circle continues to expand, Xuancheng’s trade relations with countries co-building the “Belt and Road” have become increasingly close. In the first three quarters of this year, the city exported 410 million yuan of down and feathers, of which 280 million yuan was exported to countries co-building the “Belt and Road”.

source | 江淮观察、安徽日报

Douyin e-commerce list released in September, Gao Fan dominates the women's clothing\parent-child dual list

Summarizing the September list, we found that seasonality further affects changes in user demand. As autumn approaches and the temperature drops, user demand for autumn and winter products continues to increase. Hot products such as down jackets, coats, and scarves appear, affecting changes in category and brand lists.

Compared with August, the women's clothing industry brand list in September has undergone major changes. Yaya fell from the first place to the third place, Xuezhongfei and Yalu were removed from the list, and Bosideng became the new down jacket brand on the list.In terms of store rankings, Xuezhongfei’s official flagship store also dropped from fourth place to the bottom of the list.

In terms of the hottest items list, GOVAN black gold goose down jacket, YAYA hooded down jacket, and Snow Flying Obsidian down jacket rank in the top three, with down jacket products occupying the majority of the list.

The top three parent-child apparel brands in September are Balabala, Disney, and Anta, and new brands on the list include Yalu and Govan. In terms of the most popular parent-child apparel list, Govan’s black gold children’s goose down jacket and CAMEL’s new all-match down jacket rank among the top three, with mid-autumn and winter clothing accounting for a large proportion of the list.

source | TopKlout克劳锐

China’s maritime container traffic to the U.S. rises 6% in September

Data released by US research company Descartes Datamyne show that in September, Asia’s maritime container transportation volume to the United States was 1,613,480 units (converted into 20-foot containers), an increase of 5.2% over the same month last year.

The traffic volume has continued to have negative year-on-year growth since August 2022, but this time it has turned to positive growth after 14 months. However, since the problem of excess inventory in the United States has not been eliminated, many people believe that "transportation demand is still weak now" and lacks momentum.

After September 2022, there will be an obvious excess of retail inventory in the United States, and the demand for transportation of major goods such as furniture, toys, and clothing will decrease rapidly. By September 2023, the transportation of clothing goods increased by 4% year-on-year, achieving a slight increase.

From the perspective of export destinations, transportation volume from China to the United States, which accounts for nearly 60% of the total, has recovered, with a year-on-year increase of 6%. In addition, the transportation volume from Japan to the United States increased by 61.1% year-on-year, and the transportation volume from Thailand to the United States increased by 31.3% year-on-year, both of which increased significantly.

source | 日经中文网

Bad news this week

El Niño has a 30% chance of a "historically strong" event, and the possibility of a warm winter in East Asia is greatly increased

Recently, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center warned that El Niño will continue throughout the spring, with a 75-85% chance of becoming a "strong" event. And a stronger El Niño means we are more likely to see the expected effects of the phenomenon on winter around the world.

The agency favors a "strong" event between November and January, with even a three-in-10 chance of a "historically strong" event comparable to 2015-16 and 1997-98.

The unofficial definition of a strong El Niño is a three-month average Niño-3.4 index peak of at least 1.5°C, while a peak of 2.0°C or higher is considered "historically strong" or "very strong." Since 1950, events exceeding 2.0°C have only been seen four times in the historical record.

El Niño can trigger a series of significant deviations from normal global patterns, an effect known as "El Niño teleconnections." The stronger the El Niño phenomenon, the more likely teleconnection side effects will occur. East Asian countries such as China and Japan may experience warm winters and less snow.

source | 金绒采编自NOAA、ENSO博客

The scale of import and export in September hit a new high in a single month during the year, and clothing exports declined month-on-month.

According to news from the General Administration of Customs on October 13, calculated in RMB (the same below), in the first nine months of this year, our country’s total import and export value was 30.80 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year.Among them, exports were 17.60 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.6%; imports were 13.20 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.2%; the trade surplus was 4.40 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.4%.

In September this year, our country's total import and export value was 3.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, but the scale hit a new high in a single month during the year, with a month-on-month increase of 4.3%. Among them, exports were 2.15 trillion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year; imports were 1.59 trillion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year; the trade surplus was 558.7 billion yuan. If the impact of differences in working days is excluded, imports and exports increased by 0.9% year-on-year in September.

Lu Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference held that day that China’s exports have shown more positive changes in the past two months. The export scale continued to expand in August and September, with month-on-month growth of 1.2% and 5.5% respectively, and the trend of stabilization and recovery was obvious.

In terms of the international market, in the first three quarters, our country's imports and exports to emerging markets such as Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America increased by 33.7%, 6.7%, and 5.1% respectively, all higher than the overall growth rate of our country's foreign trade.；Recently, our country's import and export to traditional markets such as the EU and the United States have also improved significantly.

Regarding the next trend of foreign trade, Lu Daliang said that the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, etc. have recently expressed concerns about the fragmentation of global trade. The WTO has lowered the growth rate of global merchandise trade this year from the previously predicted 1.7% to 0.8%. , indicating that the world's economic recovery and sustainable development still face huge challenges, and the external environment facing our country's foreign trade is still complex and severe.

In September, our country's textile and apparel exports to the world were 188.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, and a month-on-month decrease of 5.5%. Among them, textile exports were 83.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 1%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. Clothing exports were 104.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% month-on-month. down 9.5%.

source | 金绒采编自海关总署、新华社、证券日报网

Market news situation

This week’s news is more positive than negative.

As the temperature suddenly drops, consumers' demand for winter products continues to increase, which also makes down jackets account for a larger proportion of Douyin e-commerce's hot sales list, and then the "Double 11" e-commerce consumption peak season is quietly approaching , the sales situation of down products is expected to continue to improve.

In response to the tariff exemption, China's maritime container shipping volume to the United States increased in September, and the export of down, feathers and products to the U.S. market also improved significantly. At the same time, our country's trade with the countries co-building the "Belt and Road" is becoming increasingly close, and down clothing has more export space.

According to the latest predictions from the United Nations, the El Niño phenomenon will continue until at least the first half of 2024; the U.S. Climate Prediction Center even warned that there is a 30% chance that the El Niño phenomenon will occur as a "historically strong" event. This may lead to a warmer winter in our country.

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