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Weekly Market Report | Exports of down bedding increased significantly in August, and down quilts were sold well in the United States; the sportswear giant's financial report was better than expected, and the supply chain is expected to recover

2023-10-08 来源：金绒浏览量：1432

Summary

The market in the 41st week of 2023 (10.2-10.8) is generally stable, and gray duck down has fallen slightly recently.

During the National Day holiday, down prices remained stable. The current actual transaction situation has not changed much, and we still need to wait for the arrival of the autumn and winter replenishment market. However, the sluggish demand side has made it difficult for the down market to rise, and the situation of sluggish peak seasons needs to be changed urgently.

The "Double 11" stocking may provide support for cashmere prices in October, but the market may also show a downward trend as the downstream purchasing season comes to an end. In addition, according to the National Climate Center's prediction, the temperature in most parts of the country will be relatively high in October this year, which may not be conducive to the sales of down products.

According to data, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose slightly in September, but the index level was still below 50%, indicating that the global economy continues to show a weak recovery trend. Experts say that in addition to the continued pressure on demand contraction and inflation, the uncertain impact of trade barriers is one of the main external influences hindering the recovery of the global economy.

Good news this week

Nike's financial report is better than expected, and the textile supply chain's operations in the second half of the year are expected to "increase quarter by quarter"

On September 29, sportswear giant Nike (NIKE) released its first quarter financial report for fiscal year 2024. From June 1, 2023 to August 31, 2023, Nike achieved revenue of US$12.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%; net profit was US$1.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%.

This quarter’s financial report also showed that Nike’s inventory declined and its profit performance was better than expected. In the fourth quarter of 2023, large dealers entered the peak sales season, and Nike’s operating momentum is still good.

Nike's financial report showed better-than-expected profits, which made the textile industry supply chain feel that the order momentum of sports disk customers is gradually increasing, and the proportion of long-term orders is increasing. In the second half of the year, operations are expected to "increase quarter by quarter."

Quang Viet, a major down jacket OEM, has also felt the resurgence of sports brand customers. It pointed out that the main customer (NIKE) has been actively destocking in the past year, and its purchasing attitude is stable and firm. It will also have an motivating effect on other sports brand customers in the future.

The market pointed out that thanks to the upcoming Paris Olympics next year, orders from the sportswear apparel supply chain should gradually increase. In a situation where the industrial environment is severe and changing rapidly, the revenue and profits of related companies are expected to return to the growth track.

In addition, the sales situation during Thanksgiving and Christmas in Europe and the United States has always been regarded by clothing and garment factories as an important indicator of the growth of orders in the next year. Judging from the overall inventory reduction of brands and distributors, the demand situation is not as bad as imagined, and orders are expected to return next year. Guangyue also pointed out that it is now actively developing new brand customers, and the results are expected to be visible in the first half of next year.

source | 中时新闻网

Export statistics of "down bedding and quilts" in August - substantial increase

Starting from 2022, the tariffs related to down bedding will be adjusted. A new subheading of "down and feather quilts and bedspreads (hereinafter referred to as down quilts)" was added, and the scope of "other bedding and similar supplies filled with down or feathers (hereinafter referred to as other down bedding)" was adjusted accordingly, only for Cushions, seat cushions, pillows and other products are counted.

Duvet:

From January to August 2023, a total of 9,278.7 tons of "down quilts" were exported, a year-on-year increase of 39%; the export value was 929 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%.

In August 2023, 1,638.2 tons of "down quilts" were exported, a year-on-year increase of 1%; the export value was 172 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%.

In August 2023, the United States continued to be my country's largest trading partner for "down quilt" exports, accounting for 38% of total exports this month. Among them, the export quantity was 630.1 tons, an increase of 107% year-on-year and an increase of 49% month-on-month in July; the export value was 64 million yuan, an increase of 110% year-on-year and an increase of 53% month-on-month.

Germany was the second largest trading partner in the month, accounting for 9.0% of total exports; followed by the United Kingdom at 8.9% and Japan at 7.5%.

Other down bedding:

According to China Customs data, a total of 24,100 tons of "other down bedding" were exported from January to August 2023, a 22% decrease from last year; the export value was 1.074 billion yuan, a 30% decrease from last year.

In August 2023, 3,354.2 tons of "other down bedding" were exported, a decrease of 9% compared with last year; the export value was 168 million yuan, a decrease of 11% compared with last year.

In August 2023, the United States was still my country's largest trading partner for exports of "other down bedding", accounting for 52% of total exports this month.Among them, the export quantity was 1,728.3 tons, an increase of 18% year-on-year; the export value was 58 million yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year.

The UK was the second largest trading partner in the month, accounting for 7.7% of total exports; followed by Thailand with 4.3% and Canada with 4.3%.

Down bedding (quilt + other bedding)

From January to August 2023, a total of 33,400 tons of "down bedding" were exported, a decrease of 11% year-on-year; the export value was 2.003 billion yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year.

Down bedding is expected to see growth in the third quarter due to the changing seasons of European and American consumers.Entering September, the United States welcomes the arrival of the holiday shopping season, which begins with Thanksgiving.Walmart CEO expects holiday shopping season to be 'pretty good' this week.

source | 金绒整理自海关数据

Manufacturing PMI returns to expansion range, once again sending a signal of growth

On September 30, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index PMI in September was 50.2, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.This is the fourth consecutive month of rebound, returning to the expansion range, and the manufacturing boom level has further improved.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be higher than the critical point; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.6%, the same as last month, and lower than the critical point; the PMI of small enterprises was 48.0%, It increased by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and was lower than the critical point.

From the perspective of sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employee index are lower than the critical point.

Among them, the production index was 52.7%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points, indicating that the pace of expansion of manufacturing production has accelerated; The new orders index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating that manufacturing market demand continues to improve; The supplier delivery time index was 50.8%, down 0.8 percentage points and still higher than the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers continues to accelerate.

In addition, the raw material inventory index was 48.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to narrow; The employment index was 48.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating that the employment boom of manufacturing companies has recovered slightly.

In September, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has accelerated. Foreign media analysis said that China once again sent a signal of growth.

source | 国家统计局

During the JD Men’s Wear Festival, down jacket sales increased by 305% year-on-year

With the accelerated release of consumer demand and the gradual recovery of the consumer market, people's consumption demands are gradually increasing.Following the "her economy", as men gradually pay more attention to their external image in different scenarios such as business, work, and daily life, men's consumption of clothing is also experiencing growth.

Recently, JD Apparel released consumption data for the 2023 "JD Men's Wear Festival". Data shows that categories including men's clothing, men's shoes, sports shoes and clothing, men's underwear, etc. are experiencing an explosion. Among them, the transaction volume of key brands including Heilan Home, Cabin, Jack Jones, Bosideng, etc. increased by 100% year-on-year.

During the JD Men's Wear Festival, the transaction volume of Yama Style clothing increased by over 206% year-on-year, and the sales volume of fashionable and casual style clothing increased by over 100%.At the same time, the transaction volume of light outdoor jackets increased by over 212% year-on-year, American retro sweatshirts increased by over 100%, and bread down jackets increased by 85%.

In addition, the turnover of down jackets increased by 305% year-on-year. Among them, the light and warm down jackets that are both lightweight and warm are the most popular, with a year-on-year increase of over 105%. JD.com data shows that waterproof, windproof, anti-slip, warm and breathable have become the key words for consumers to purchase outdoor shoes and clothing.

source | 中国经济网

Bad news this week

Work started early before the National Day holiday ended, but production enthusiasm was not as good as in previous peak seasons.

The National Day holiday is coming to an end. I thought that the textile bosses would take an 8-day holiday before starting work. Unexpectedly, most textile companies have already started production! From what some textile bosses said, most textile companies only wait for 3-4 days. Do they really have orders?

Mr. Shen from Domestic Trade said that the current factory operating rate is 100% and orders have remained stable. Mr. Wu from Foreign Trade said that the foreign trade market is now basically filled with autumn and winter fabrics, and overall there are still many samples and few actual orders, with the order size being around 10,000 meters.

According to the market situation, large orders are still scarce at present, and they are basically orders of several thousand to tens of thousands of meters. There are very few hundreds of thousands of meters, let alone millions of meters. Although textile bosses have orders on hand, their enthusiasm for production is not as high as in previous peak seasons.

September did not deliver a satisfactory answer. As for October, most textile bosses are not optimistic about the follow-up market. However, there will still be more or less orders placed during the overseas Christmas season and domestic Double Eleven, and the follow-up situation cannot be fully determined.

source | 绸都网

Market news situation

This week’s news is more positive than negative.

Affected by the larger-than-expected decline in inventory, sportswear giant Nike's stock price rose sharply.Some supply chain companies pointed out that Nike will prepare orders for the year-end festivals and next year's Olympic Games. According to this schedule, the operating growth this year may not be obvious, but the growth momentum in the first half of next year will definitely rebound significantly.

China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index in September was 50.2, returning to the expansion range, indicating further improvement in the level of manufacturing prosperity. Experts say some recent indicators suggest the worst of the economic slowdown has bottomed out, with industrial profits rising in August for the first time in more than a year. The total profit of the "leather, fur, feather and their products and shoemaking industry" increased from 18.33 billion yuan in July to 26.39 billion yuan in August.

In July this year, new autumn home textile products such as duvets, pillows and carpets resonated with American consumers, and home furnishings retailers have therefore expanded the proportion of home textiles, home decoration and holiday products. The president and CEO of Williams-Sonoma (one of the largest home furnishings retailers in the United States) said that demand for home textiles is relatively strong and has achieved better sales results.

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