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Weekly Market Report | Orders have shrunk, and the industry’s export situation has become more severe; as the Double Festival approaches, clothing brands start winter marketing

2023-09-24 来源：金绒浏览量：1173

Summary

In the 39th week of 2023 (9.18-9.24), the market is generally stable.

The White Dew term has passed, and our country has begun the autumn process. The velvet content of raw material wool has also rebounded, supporting its price to remain strong. However, the current demand for finished cashmere is not strong during the peak season, and product companies are still carefully examining the trend of the consumer market this year.。

With the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, retail sales are expected to gradually recover, and many brands have launched marketing campaigns for winter down jackets in 2023. In recent months, the foreign trade situation of down and its products has been sluggish, so the domestic demand market may dominate the down market trend this autumn and winter.

On September 20, local time, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, but the dot plot released on the same day released a hawkish signal, which means that another rate increase may be possible within the year. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 525 basis points for 11 consecutive times in more than a year, which has generally suppressed demand in developed economies and has a negative impact on exports from emerging markets.

Good news this week

Down and feather export statistics from major provinces and cities from January to August - showing signs of improvement

According to China Customs data, from January to August 2023, Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers.However, export volume fell sharply from May to July and was far less than in previous years.

From January to August, Zhejiang Province exported 9,390 tons of down and feathers, a 30% decrease from last year; the export value was 1.272 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a decrease of 28% from last year.

From January to August 2023, Anhui Province ranked second in the country in terms of export volume and export value of down and feathers. In addition, the down and feather exports of Anhui, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Hunan all rebounded in August.

From January to August, Anhui Province exported 8,764 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 31% from the same period last year; the export value was 771 million yuan, a decrease of 30% from the same period last year.

From January to August, Jiangsu Province exported 2,950 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 15% from the same period last year; the export value was 398 million yuan, a decrease of 26% from the same period last year.

From January to August, Guangdong Province exported 1,051 tons of down and feathers, a decrease of 41% from the same period last year; the export value was 145 million yuan, a decrease of 29% from the same period last year.

From January to August, Hunan Province exported 676 tons of down and feathers, an increase of 75% year-on-year; the export value was 334 million yuan, an increase of 81% year-on-year.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Is it a sign of demand recovery? U.S. retail sales grew much more than expected in August

Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in August, higher than the market consensus of 0.1%. At the same time, retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in August, higher than the revised 0.5% increase in July. Retail sales data have increased for five consecutive months.

Specifically, 9 of the 13 retail sales categories achieved month-on-month growth that month. Among them, the sales of clothing increased by 0.9% month-on-month; the sales of furniture and household items fell by 1.0% month-on-month; and the sales of sports products fell by 1.6% month-on-month.

It is worth noting that in September, the United States is ushering in the holiday shopping season, which begins with Thanksgiving.Walmart's chief executive this week predicted a "pretty good" holiday shopping season as U.S. consumers fared better than the country's largest retailer expected at the start of the year.

However, US media believes that the growth of retail sales in August was mainly driven by the surge in oil prices. Excluding sales at gas stations, retail sales in August only increased by 0.2%. Some experts predict that consumers are unlikely to continue this spending momentum for the rest of the year, which may push the U.S. economy into a mild recession.

source | 浙江贸促

The textile order situation has improved greatly, with the increase in autumn and winter fabrics.

Many textile people have reported that the current order situation has indeed improved compared to August. However, judging from the feedback from downstream weaving enterprises, the current market situation is very polarized.

Category 1 enterprises are still in a situation of insufficient fabric orders, which is no different from August. Mr. Zhang, who specializes in pongee fabrics, said that the current order situation is relatively average, a little worse than last year. They are all regular orders from some old customers, and the company basically has no hot-selling varieties.

For another type of enterprise, orders have been scheduled until October and November, which is obviously much higher than at the beginning of August.Mr. Lu, the person in charge of a company that produces nylon fabrics, said that the current order situation is pretty good, with an increase compared with August and an increase compared with September last year. The increase is for autumn and winter fabrics, of which nylon is more common.

This increase in orders is directly reflected in the downward trend of gray fabric inventory.Mr. Zhou, who specializes in grosgrain and T400 gray fabrics, said that the current order situation is better than in August. The operation rate of the 250 looms in his factory is 100%. The inventory is only about half a month old now, and it is almost cleared.

source | 绸都网

Bad news this week

Down clothing import and export statistics (August)——Abnormal again

In August 2023, a total of 6.587 million pieces of down clothing were exported, a decrease of 6.4% compared with July this year.；The export value was 1.376 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.1% from July this year.

Down jacket export list for August 2023

商品名称	数量 (万件)	人民币 (亿元)	数量同比去年	金额同比去年
棉制男羽绒服	75.4	1.03	-52.5%	-51.2%
化纤制男羽绒服	228.1	4.90	-19.2%	-31.0%
棉制女羽绒服	49.5	0.71	-47.1%	-50.0%
化纤制女羽绒服	305.6	7.12	-34.2%	-35.4%

Export situation of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export situation of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

It can be seen from the data that the export of down jackets has exited the off-season. However, after four months of continuous growth, there has been an extremely obvious decline, and the downward trend has continued into August.The export volume in August fell by 34% compared with the same period last year, which was larger than the decline in July.

Looking at the situation in the past nine years, the export volume from July to August is basically the highest period of the year. However, the export volume of down jackets from July to August this year has been reduced by more than half compared with previous years. It can be said that there has been a rise in an extremely rare anomaly.

In terms of imports, in August 2023, a total of 1.085 million pieces of down clothing were imported, an increase of 102.9% from the previous month; the import value was 994 million yuan, an increase of 63.6% from the previous month.

source | 金绒采编数据来自海关

Japan Meteorological Agency: This winter will show a milder trend

The Japan Meteorological Agency recently announced a long-term forecast. Affected by global warming and the El Niño phenomenon, the westerly wind belt will snake northward near Japan, making it difficult for cold air to move southward. Therefore, the average temperature across Japan from October to winter will become higher, showing a mild winter trend.

The long-term forecast released by the Meteorological Agency from October to December this year and from December to February 2024 states that due to the relatively weak impact of cold air during this period, the average temperature in northern Japan may be similar to or higher than in previous years;As for East Japan, West Japan, Okinawa and Amami, the average temperature may be higher than in previous years.

The Meteorological Agency said that it is currently predicted that there will still be "true summer" with high temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius until the first half of October, so this winter will tend to be milder.

Also because this winter is less affected by the distribution of winter-type air pressure, the snowfall in East Japan and West Japan located on the Sea of Japan may be lower than in previous years, while the snowfall in North Japan will be similar to or lower than previous years.

source | 中央社

The product side has low acceptance of the current seedling price, and the supply of duck seedlings may turn to an increasing trend.

As the "Mid-Autumn Festival" and "National Day" are approaching, the trends in the upstream and downstream links of white-feathered meat ducks have become the focus of the industry.

In the first half of the week, the market is expected to bottom out and gradually improve. The main reason is that the sentiment of replenishing the market has improved.The current temperature is suitable and it is the golden season for breeding. The risk for farmers to replenish their flocks is relatively low.Second, the demand in the later period is promising.The stable demand for schools starting, combined with the steady upward trend of live pigs and the approaching of the Double Festival, will boost consumption.

Under this influence, the industry is optimistic that the market outlook will weaken again in the second half of the week, and prices are continuously limited.The main reasons are firstly that the current product side has low acceptance of the current seedling price, and secondly that the early inventory of eggs has led to a short-term shortage of seedlings, but the increase has gradually appeared this week, and the negatives have dominated.

According to Mysteel agricultural product market research, from the perspective of duck seedling supply, the current seed production capacity is affected by the cooler weather, and the supply is gradually increasing, with an increase in hatching eggs and duck seedlings.

source | 我的钢铁网

Market news situation

This week’s news is more negative than positive.

The foreign trade of my country's down industry continues to be under pressure, and the export volume of various products has declined year-on-year to varying degrees, among which the export situation of down clothing is even more severe.The good news is that the decline in exports of down and feathers has narrowed significantly and has increased compared with the previous two months, reversing the downward trend since March.

Since September, autumn and winter clothing orders for clothing brands have been launched one after another, and the demand for inquiries and staking has increased significantly. However, compared with the peak seasons in previous years, the number of orders has shrunk significantlyThe quotations for export orders in the home textile market have increased, and the actual orders are mostly small orders, while the bidding for larger orders is fierce.

At present, the strength of the cold air in our country is gradually increasing, and even some areas in the north have issued cold wave warnings.As the cold air moves southward, the temperature in the Yangtze River Basin has also dropped significantly, and it is time for quilts to come out in many places. However, meteorological analysts said that the start of autumn in North my country will be significantly later this year.

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