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Weekly Market Report | Functional quality continues to improve, and military procurement has become the highlight of down growth; influenced by the United States’ “friendly shore” policy, Mexico has increased import tariffs on down jackets

2023-09-04 来源：金绒浏览量：1259

Summary

In the 36th week of 2023 (8.28-9.3), the market is generally stable.

Recently, the supply of duck sources has been low, and slaughterhouses have avoided parking, so the supply of raw wool has been reduced. Judging from the 2023 semi-annual reports of listed breeding companies, the output of duck products such as ducklings, feathered ducks and duck meat has decreased year-on-year. In addition, the down content of the raw material wool is low, which increases the cost of down companies.

Currently, due to the price of ducklings falling again, it is expected that the industry may implement a new wave of overcapacity reduction plans, and the supply of ducklings at the end of September will be significantly reduced and should be controlled at 10-11 million birds per day. The white duck down market has been shrinking and consolidating this year, creating a dilemma, and may therefore continue to maintain it.

In the context of high-end down jackets, goose down has always been in short supply, and this winter another brand announced its entry into high-end goose down jackets. It is estimated that the market price of goose down will remain strong despite insufficient supply and increasing demand.

Good news this week

Huaying Agriculture turns operating losses into profits, and cooperation with military procurement is the highlight of future growth

On the evening of August 25, Huaying Agriculture disclosed its 2023 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, the operating resilience of the company's main business was highlighted, its profitability continued to improve, and it achieved an operational turnaround from losses to profits.

In the first half of the year, Huaying Agriculture's down production and operation continued to maintain a stable and positive trend, selling 2,095.99 tons of down and achieving operating income of 778.4227 million yuan, an increase of 8.77% over the same period last year.

During the reporting period, with the release of production capacity, the company gave full play to the advantages of the "Huaying Export" brand and the rich experience accumulated in foreign markets over the years to expand the export business of cooked food and down.

In the down business sector, the company's main business includes down sales of different specifications, mainly sold to well-known domestic and foreign clothing and apparel companies. It also cooperates with military procurement suppliers to provide high-quality down for military cold-proof quilts.

As the functions and quality of down products continue to improve, the market demand for down and feather products will continue to increase accordingly, and the market scale will continue to expand.The application of down and feather products in domestic military supplies, outdoor equipment and other fields will also be a highlight of future growth.

With the continuous upgrading and improvement of military equipment, the rapid development of the tourism industry, and the continuous improvement and improvement of industry standards, the market demand for down and feather products is expected to continue to expand.

source | Huaying Agriculture 2023 Semi-annual Board of Directors Operation Review

Along the “One Belt and One Road”, down companies are making strides to go global

Recently, at Anhui Huaying Xintang Down Co., Ltd., general manager Sun Guanshui was checking the production situation in the production workshop."In the past few years, with the relocation of Xiaoshan's down industry, we chose to settle in Xuancheng." In Sun Guanshui's view, coming to Xuancheng, Anhui Province was the most correct decision.

"With the strong support of the local government and customs, we have seized the dividends of the RCEP policy and actively opened up markets in countries along the 'Belt and Road' such as Thailand and Malaysia on the basis of the original market. In the first seven months of this year, our output value has exceeded 4 billion."Sun Guanshui said, "We are also confident in exploring the international market."

In recent years, affected by many factors such as the international situation, global avian influenza epidemic trends, frequent fluctuations in raw material prices in the industry, and market consumer preferences, down and feather companies have faced difficulties in exporting in different aspects.

In order to help enterprises tide over the difficulties, Xuancheng Customs focuses on the laws, regulations, standards and customs clearance policies of the countries along the "Belt and Road", notifies down and feather enterprises in the jurisdiction of overseas goods trade control measures and early warning information on changes in technical regulations, and actively responds to the individual requirements of enterprise certificates to clarify demand and help develop emerging markets.

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” initiative. Over the past 10 years, trade exchanges between Anhui Province and countries along the “Belt and Road” have become increasingly close. From 2013 to 2022, the import and export between Anhui Province and countries along the “One Belt, One Road” will grow at an average annual rate of 12%.

According to statistics, in the first seven months of this year, Xuancheng exported 350 million yuan of down and feathers, of which 160 million yuan was exported to countries along the “Belt and Road”, accounting for 48.2% of Anhui Province’s exports during the same period.

source | 安徽商报

Down jackets are very popular in Central Asia, and September is the beginning of the influx of orders.

"To put it bluntly, we are making final preparations for this year's import and export trade results. I firmly believe that this year's foreign trade export volume will increase by 10 million yuan compared with last year." said Gu Xiaowan, general manager of Kezhou Guolihua Garment Co., Ltd.

The company is a clothing company integrating design, production, sales, and import and export trade. Its products are sold to five Central Asian countries, with annual sales of about 30 million yuan. The company's products such as jackets and down jackets are very popular in Central Asia, and every September is the beginning of the influx of orders.

In May of this year, Gu Xiaowan once again went to five Central Asian countries to inspect and research the market. After returning, she immediately started preparing to expand production.She said that her trip to the five Central Asian countries allowed her to see more business opportunities and also made her full of expectations for the future Central Asian market.

At the 2023 (China) Asia-Europe Commodity Trade Expo, which just concluded, approximately 1,300 companies from 40 countries and regions including Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, 7 international organizations, and domestic and foreign companies gathered in Xinjiang to discuss development cooperation.

Customs data shows that the overall export of down jackets to the five Central Asian countries is on an upward trend. Among them, the number of exports in 2021 is the largest, reaching 1.848 million pieces, with an export value of 340 million yuan. The export volume from January to July this year was 337,000 pieces.

Looking back in 2022, the export of down jackets to the five Central Asian countries has shrunk. Among them, Kazakhstan has the highest export volume, with 610,000 pieces; followed by Kyrgyzstan, with 500,000 pieces. The period from September to November of that year is a small peak period for exports.

source | 金绒采编自克孜勒苏日报、海关数据

The manufacturing PMI was higher than expected and the previous value, and the manufacturing boom level further improved.

On August 31, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index in August was 49.7, higher than the expected 49.2 and the previous value of 49.3.Although it has been in contraction for five consecutive months, the manufacturing boom level has further improved.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises was 47.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

From the perspective of sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employee index are lower than the critical point.

Among them, the production index was 51.9%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing production has increased; the new orders index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing market demand has improved;The supplier delivery time index was 51.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers has accelerated.

source | 华尔街见闻

Bad news this week

Mexico increases import tariffs on 392 products, and down clothing is adjusted to the highest level

On August 15, 2023, the President of Mexico signed the "Administrative Order on Amending the General Import and Export Tariff Law", adjusting the import tariffs for 392 maritime codes to five levels of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25%. The decree takes effect on August 16, 2023 and will be valid until July 31, 2025.

The tariff numbers involve a total of 13 major categories of my country's customs tariff categories. The most affected ones are "steel and steel products", "plastics and rubber", "transportation equipment and parts", "textiles" and "miscellaneous furniture".

These five major categories will account for 86% of the total export value to Mexico in 2022. They are also product categories that have seen significant growth in China's exports to Mexico in recent years.

For the down industry, those affected include cotton men's down jackets, cotton women's down jackets, chemical fiber women's down jackets and cotton down trousers. The tariffs for these categories have been adjusted to 25%. In recent years, the export of down clothing to Mexico has increased, reaching 860,000 pieces in 2022, and 650,000 pieces from January to July 2023.

It should be noted that Mexico’s law on increasing import tariffs does not apply to countries and regions that have signed trade agreements with Mexico.In a sense, this law is also the latest manifestation of the U.S. government’s “friendly shore” supply chain strategy.

Since the Sino-US economic and trade frictions began in 2018, Chinese companies have increasingly made cross-border transfer investments in Mexico.This time Mexico has raised import tariffs on China, which is not conducive to Mexico's ability to undertake the transfer of China's industries and supply chains.

source | 世贸组织研究会贸易救济专委会、海关总署

The overall prosperity of the outdoor industry declined, and Yangzhou Jinquan’s revenue declined

On the evening of August 25, Yangzhou Jinquan released its 2023 semi-annual report. From January to June 2023, the company achieved operating income of 518 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.73%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 164 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.67%.

Regarding the decline in revenue in the first half of the year, Yangzhou Jinquan said that the reason was the decline in the overall prosperity of the outdoor industry, which led to a reduction in demand for camping equipment products and a slight decline in the company's sales.However, benefiting from high-quality customer resources, stable product structure and sound business strategies, the company still achieved stable development in operating performance.

It is understood that Jinquan Tourism is mainly engaged in the research and development, design, production and sales of outdoor products. The main raw materials required for the company's production include fabrics (nylon, polyester, vinylon, etc.), fillers (down, hollow cotton, etc.), etc.During the reporting period, raw materials accounted for a relatively high proportion of the company's operating costs.

Yangzhou Jinquan's sales areas are mainly foreign markets, exporting to Europe, North America and other regions.The 2023 semi-annual report shows that some of the company's products exported to the United States during the reporting period were on the list of additional tariffs.The company stated that its overall operating performance has not been significantly affected by the U.S. tariff increase policy.

source | 每日经济新闻

Global manufacturing downturn drags down economic recovery

Recently, according to the latest S&P Global U.S. Purchasing Managers Survey, the composite PMI plummeted to 50.4 in August from the previous 52.0, marking the largest month-on-month decline since November 2022.Although the data remained above the expansion line for the seventh consecutive month, it showed that the economy was close to stagnating.

The Eurozone composite PMI fell to a 33-month low in August. Among them, Lokomotiv Germany's economy is contracting at the fastest rate in more than three years. At the same time, the service industry dominated by France, the second largest economy, also shrank more than expected, falling to a 30-month low.

The July global manufacturing PMI released by S&P International has been below the 50 level, which is the neutral level of the manufacturing boom and bust line, for 11 consecutive months. The length of time the PMI has fallen below 50 is second only to the economic recession after the 2008 international financial crisis.

From a regional perspective, 70% of the world's 29 major countries and regions have PMIs below 50, and 70% are shrinking business activities.It can be seen that the prospects for global manufacturing recovery will most likely drag down the pace of global economic recovery this year.

source | 外跨研究中心

Market news situation

This week’s news is more positive than negative.

In August, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rebounded for three consecutive months, indicating that the contraction pressure in the manufacturing industry has steadily eased. Taking into account that the effects of policies to stabilize growth will further emerge, the manufacturing PMI index in September is expected to rise to an expansion range of more than 50%.

As primary militiamen and full-time people's armed cadres across the country are gradually issued 21-type combat training uniforms, down companies will cooperate with military procurement suppliers to provide down for the army's cold-proof quilts.

July export data shows that Central Asia, West Asia and Africa are still the bright spots for my country's textile and apparel exports. Trade exchanges among countries along the "Belt and Road" are becoming increasingly close, and down jackets are very popular in Central Asia.

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