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Weekly Market Report | El Niño is becoming more and more severe, and the possibility of a warm winter in East Asia has increased; the output of slaughtering companies has declined, and the supply of raw material plush has shrunk.

2023-08-20 来源：金绒浏览量：754

Summary

The market will generally rise in the 34th week of 2023 (8.14-8.20).

Recently, the supply of ducks in the market has been low, the production volume of slaughterhouses has also declined, and there are plans to avoid parking, and the supply of raw material wool has also been reduced. In addition, the high temperature in the north continues, and the down content of the raw material duck feathers has decreased, thus increasing the procurement costs of down companies.

Entering mid-August, the downstream textile market began to gradually exert its strength, with inquiries and purchases increasing slightly. As the autumn and winter markets gradually open up, the operating rates of downstream product companies have increased. The markets have begun to launch their own flagship autumn and winter products, and the finished down market has been boosted by this.

Looking back on the past August, product companies will be in a state of placing orders for the entire month. However, consumption is sluggish this year, and clothing companies are also in recession, so it seems that this year's purchasing season will be relatively urgent. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" have entered the countdown, and will usher in the most important node in the second half of the year - Double Eleven.

Good news this week

Douyin e-commerce list released in July, down jackets occupy the most popular list in the women's clothing industry

Douyin's e-commerce rankings in various dimensions in July show that there has been a sales boom for off-season products, with down jackets occupying most of the hot spots in the women's clothing industry in July.

The list of women's clothing brands in July has changed significantly compared to the previous one. The top three are Yaya, Aiyifu and Jiaoxia. Among them, Aiyi Server has become the biggest dark horse, jumping to the second place from having never been on the list. Yalu, which is famous for its down jackets, is also on the list.

In terms of store rankings, the top three are Jiaoxia Official Flagship Store, CO CO ZONE Clothing Flagship Store, and Mutu Official Flagship Store, while YAYA Duck Down Jacket Flagship Store dropped to ninth place.

In terms of popular products, Jiaoxia Cooling Sun Protection Clothes, CO CO ZONE Outdoor Jackets, and Qiaitai Tibing Silk Beautiful Back Underwear are the top three. In addition, down jacket products are highly sought after by users. Govan's black gold goose down jacket, duck windproof down jacket, snow flying mid-length down jacket and Yalu mid-length down jacket occupy most of the spots on the list.

source | TopKlout克劳锐

Clothing wholesale in Guangzhou is booming, and merchants are optimistic about the autumn clothing market

In the lobby of a clothing company in Guangzhou, Guangdong, the lobby is filled with clothing dealers from all over the country, who are waiting for a clothing ordering meeting to be held in the afternoon.

Ms. Hao, a clothing buyer from Hebei, said that the overall sales performance of the clothing business this year is actually good, so she is confident about the market outlook and decided to increase order volume, which is about 50% higher than last year.

It is understood that starting from the end of August, the production of summer clothing will be gradually completed, and autumn clothing and spring and summer clothing in 2024 will become the main products. Judging from the current order situation, whether it is autumn clothing orders or next year's spring and summer clothing orders, the number has increased significantly.

As clothing sales pick up, the market popularity of clothing wholesale is steadily improving. Data released by the China National Textile and Apparel Industry Federation show that in July this year, the prosperity index of my country's textile and apparel professional market managers was 51.24, an increase of 2.42 percentage points from June.

source | 央视财经

Cloth sellers have already started preparing for the peak season in the second half of the year

It's already mid-August, but there seems to be no movement in the market, and there are still fabric manufacturers selling goods at low prices.Manager Ma, who specializes in down jacket linings, said: "They are all very cheap fabrics, 2-3 cents lower than the normal price per meter, and the selling price is only a little more than one piece, which means you lose money based on how much you sell. "

Manager Tang also said: "Recently, there has been a lot of 300T pongee spinning, which is only 1.45 yuan/meter, and the cost is 1.65 yuan/meter." According to data monitoring from Silkdu.com, the inventory of water-jet gray fabrics in Shengze area is 36.1 days old. . As inventories get higher and higher, selling goods has become the most efficient way to resolve financial pressure.

Even though the off-season is still here, the inventory of gray fabrics is slightly higher, but the production enthusiasm of weaving factories is still acceptable.According to monitoring data from Silkdu.com, the current operating rate of weaving factories is 68.5%, an increase of 0.5% from last week. Although the increase is not large, it shows an upward trend. Fabric bosses have begun to prepare for the peak season in the second half of the year.

Mr. Hu, who mainly produces T400 fabrics, said: "Currently, the production capacity is 100%, and the production capacity should not drop in the future. The orders at this stage are pretty good. "However, Mr. Guo, who mainly deals in polyester taffeta and taslan spot goods, said that the operating rate is about 80%, and it should not increase too much in the future.

source | 布工厂

Bad news this week

El Niño is getting more intense and warm winter is approaching in East Asia

After the southern hemisphere entered an unprecedented hot winter, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center recently warned that there is more than a 95% chance that the El Niño phenomenon will continue from December this year to February next year. This means that winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be abnormal, exacerbating the risk of heat waves and flooding.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center also said that given the July data, it is more confident that a strong El Niño will occur. It is very likely (about one-third) that the peak marine Niño index this winter will reach or exceed 1.5°C.

El Niño's most widespread effects on global climate occur in winter and early spring (the term for the northern hemisphere season), with typical effects including more rain and storms in the southern United States, southeastern South America, around the Horn of Africa and in eastern Asia.

East Asian countries such as China and Japan are likely to experience mild winters and less snow, leading to damage to winter crops, increased heating demand and difficulties in operating ski resorts. However, the entire southern third to half of the United States, including California, may experience wetter conditions due to El Niño, resulting in colder winters and snowier conditions.

This is not a good sign for down jacket companies. They may have more competing products. The impact of climate change has already quietly penetrated the clothing industry.

This year, some Italian clothing retailers hope to postpone the start of the summer discount season to mid-July, which usually starts in early July. Consumers may be more inclined to buy clothes that are suitable for multiple scenarios, which will force brands to adjust their seasonal product planning.

source | 金绒采编自NOAA、ENSO博客

The ducklings are about to emerge, and the supply of ducklings may increase rapidly.

In mid-August, when the weather is about to come out, the impact of high temperature on the production capacity of various types of meat poultry will gradually weaken, and the production capacity will be restored.

According to the breeding cycle of white-feathered meat ducks, the restocking period corresponds to the slaughtering period on the 15th to the 20th, which is close to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day slaughtering periods. The recent weekly seedling price trend is very worthy of attention!

According to Mysteel agricultural product market research, from the perspective of duck seedling supply, the supply of reserve and moulting ducks is gradually increasing after the production of reserve and moulting ducks is started. If there is no centralized duck hunting, the number of seedlings will increase rapidly with the appearance of the 20th. .

During the 33rd week (8/7-8/13), the industry estimates an average of about 11.5-11.8 million pigeons/day, a decrease compared to the previous week. High temperature and high humidity weather still have an impact on the number of seedlings emerging, and it will still take time for the egg production rate to return to normal.

source | Mysteel、水禽行情网

The first half of this year may be the period with the largest number of imported down and feathers in history.

In the first half of this year, my country's down and feather import volume was 16,899 tons, an increase of 58.7% year-on-year; the import value was 838 million yuan, an increase of 56.7% year-on-year.

Among them, March 2023 is the month with the largest amount of imported down and feathers since 2015, 26% more than December 2021, which ranks second, while June 2023 ranks third, followed by April 2023.

It is enough to see that the first half of 2023 will actually be the first half of the year with the most imported down and feathers since 2015, and even the most imported period in history.

With the price of finished down products so high this year, it seems that importing more down and feathers is a matter of course.

But where did these imported down and feathers go? Was it sent directly to make a down jacket?

According to customs data, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region imported the most down and feathers in the first half of 2023, with an import volume of 4,576 tons, accounting for 27%; followed by Anhui Province, with an import volume of 3,186 tons, accounting for 19%; followed by Zhejiang Province imported 2,946 tons, accounting for 17%.

According to relevant information from Gangnan District, in the first quarter of 2023, the place imported about 7,000 tons of feathers and down, accounting for about 70% of my country’s total feathers and down imports.

With the completion and commissioning of various feather and down processing projects in the Gangnan District Down Industrial Park, the import demand for feathers and down is expected to reach 30,000 tons by the end of 2023, and the import demand is expected to reach 50,000 tons in 2024.

source | 金绒采编，数据来自海关、港南宣传

Exports from many countries around the world have continued to decline, and the decline is difficult to reverse in the short term.

Recently, due to factors such as sluggish external demand and continued sluggishness, the import and export trade of countries around the world is not ideal. The sluggish trend in global trade will be difficult to reverse quickly in the short term, and the decline in exports may have a lasting impact on economic growth.

Data from the Vietnam Bureau of Statistics showed that Vietnam's exports shrank by 3.5% in July. Exports have declined for five consecutive months, the longest decline in 14 years. The backbone textile industry is also facing difficulties. In the first quarter of this year, export orders fell by 70% to 80%, leading to the shutdown of 42,900 factories. In the second quarter, orders fell by 80%.

Data released by South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy showed that South Korea’s exports in July fell 16.5% year-on-year to US$50.33 billion, the tenth consecutive month of decline and the largest decline since May 2020.

From January to June 2023, Japan's total import value from the world fell by 7.8%. In June alone, Japan's import value was US$61.601 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.62%; its export value was US$61.906 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.72%. Since April 2022, Japan's external exports have declined for 15 consecutive months.

The U.S. Department of Commerce disclosed data on August 8 that exports of goods and services fell by US$300 million to US$247.5 billion in June, and imports fell by US$3.1 billion to US$313 billion.

However, there are still some countries that have achieved export growth despite the trend. Turkey, which is also a major textile country, saw its exports in July increase by 8.4% year-on-year to US$20.093 billion, a record high.

source | 浙江贸促综合整理

Market news situation

This week's news is more negative than positive, but the impact will occur at a later stage.

At present, the performance of clothing dealers is acceptable. Autumn and winter clothing have gradually become the main products. Off-season sales of down jackets have suddenly increased. Upstream weaving factories have also begun to prepare for the peak season in the second half of the year.

my country's exports are currently on a downward trend. However, as the RMB exchange rate continues to fall against the US dollar, the competitiveness of exported goods may be improved, thereby boosting economic growth through increased exports. According to customs data, the export of down and its products in July increased compared with June.

The development of El Niño cannot be ignored, but it is not an absolute factor in warm winters. In the climate evolution process of global warming, cold air will be "squeezed" out from the polar regions from time to time, causing North America, East Asia, Europe and other regions to experience cold winters in turns. Therefore, it is still difficult to determine whether this winter will be a warm winter or a cold winter.

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