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Weekly Quotes | Substitution effect is highlighted, and grey goose down is slightly stronger

2023-07-30 来源：金绒浏览量：990

summary

In the 31st week of 2023 (7.24-7.30), the market remained generally stable, and the price of gray goose down continued to rise slightly after the previous week.

As August approaches, the home textile industry is gradually expanding its procurement of goose down, but the production of white goose down is relatively small. Therefore, some brands have chosen gray goose down as a substitute. At the same time, with the recovery of foreign trade orders, the market for gray goose down has been able to rise, gradually narrowing the price gap with white goose down.

Recently hatched duck seedlings, corresponding to the launch time of meat ducks, are on the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, so most of them are optimistic about the future market. The plan of duck seedlings is accelerated, and farmers are in a hurry to raise them before subsidies are available. According to Mysteel's monitoring, the daily average number of seedlings remained stable at over 12 million in the 31st week (7/24-7/30).

Scientists have recently confirmed that July this year became the hottest month on record. UN Secretary General Guterres warned that "the era of global warming is over and the era of global boiling is coming". Humans will have to adapt to rising temperatures, as well as extreme situations such as floods, droughts, and storms, and the down industry must also adapt to them.

good news

Export of "Down Bedding and Quilt" in June - Demand for Seasonal Changes in Europe and America

Duvet:

From January to June 2023, a total of 6443.9 tons of "Duvet" were exported, up 61.1% year on year; The export amount was RMB 640 million, an increase of 56.6% year-on-year.

In June 2023, 1045.2 tons of "Duvet" were exported, an increase of 43.2% year on year; The export amount was 102 million yuan, an increase of 25.3% year-on-year.

In June 2023, the United States will continue to be the largest trading partner of China's "Duvet" exports, accounting for 30% of the total exports this month, and the proportion will shrink significantly. The reason for the narrowing is that the second largest trading partner of the month, the UK, expanded its import share, accounting for 17% of the total export volume, and the seasonal demand significantly increased.

Subsequently, Germany accounted for 8.3% and Australia accounted for 7.6%.

Other down bedding:

According to Chinese customs data, a total of 17400 tons of "other down bedding" were exported from January to June 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%; The export amount was 743 million yuan, a decrease of 36.3% compared to last year.

In June 2023, 3080.6 tons of "other down bedding" were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%; The export amount was RMB 139 million, a decrease of 28.1% compared to last year.

In June 2023, the United States remained the largest trading partner for China's exports of "other down bedding", accounting for 50% of the total export volume this month, with a slightly smaller proportion. Among them, the export quantity was 1533.1 tons, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year.

The UK was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 8% of total exports; Subsequently, Australia accounted for 6% and Germany accounted for 5%.

Down bedding (Duvet and other bedding):

From January to June 2023, a total of 23800 tons of "down bedding" were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%; The export amount was RMB 1.383 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%.

Due to the seasonal demand from European and American consumers, down bedding is expected to experience growth in the third quarter. However, Britain's large demand for Duvet in June this year continued to maintain a positive year-on-year growth in exports of "down bedding".

After the peak of duck seedling shipments, it is expected that there will be a significant decrease

The data shows that the daily average number of seedlings in the 29th week of this year is expected to be 12 million. Although the performance of the current breeding ducks has decreased due to the impact of high temperature and humidity, the supply of new breeding ducks still maintains an increasing trend.

It is expected that the seedling yield will reach a new peak in late this month and August. And Liu Changsheng, the chairman of the Shandong Duck Breeding Alliance, also stated that the current shipment volume of duck seedlings is at its highest point in the second half of the year.

However, Liu Changsheng predicts that the emergence rate will begin to decline in half a month. "The daily emergence of seedlings may decrease by about 15% before or after August 10th, with a pullback to within 'ten million/day'. At that time, there will be significant changes in the supply and demand pattern, and the market will undergo significant changes."

The person in charge of Huaying Agriculture stated that the prices of several popular products have increased in the past few days, but they have remained relatively stable in recent days, with average terminal sales. Looking forward to the peak season in September, when the industry's prosperity may increase."

Young people flock to the off-season 50% discount Canadian goose shop

In July, Canadian geese entered the discount season - a regular summer event for Big Geese, but the unprecedented 50% discount has once again ignited people's enthusiasm.

The DT51 shopping mall located at No. 98 Beiyuan Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing was filled for the first time with so many young people queuing up to buy geese, for four hours in a row. The people in line have already formed an S-shaped queue and made several turns.

Discounts have been circulating in Xiaohongshu these days, and a set of secrets to getting up early and queuing has been circulating: the mall opens at ten o'clock, it's best to queue up at eight or nine o'clock, and head straight to the Big Goose store when it opens. Those who come late should bring their own camping chairs and some chocolate to avoid hypoglycemia. You can ask a friend to help you purchase, but one person can only purchase two items.

When the first big goose store in Beijing opened in 2018, people were shocked by its price of over ten thousand yuan, but now this price is no longer worth making a fuss about. For consumers, the past era of buying good Down jacket for less than 1000 yuan is gone forever.

In contrast, the goose has become a rare choice. After all, compared to the unknown products that cost one or two thousand yuan, Big Goose is still a well-known brand, and the discounted price is also acceptable. The after-sales service is also more reassuring

Searched on Xiaohongshu with the keyword of "off-season", among the 260000+bloggers' notes, "cost-effective", "cost-effective" and "Down jacket free" are the most common eye-catching slogans. These young people who pay the bill have a similar basic appearance: strong purchasing desire, limited economic conditions, and sensitivity to price changes.

"If the price of a Down jacket has risen to 3000 yuan, I would rather wait in line for three hours at the gate of Canada goose than buy one at random." said a consumer.

bad news

Down Garment Import and Export Statistics (June) - There are bad signs

In June 2023, a total of 7.671 million pieces of down garments were exported, up 37.9% month on month from May this year; The export amount was 1.484 billion yuan, an increase of 51.6% compared to May this year.

Down jacket export table in June 2023

name	Quantity (Ten thousand)	RMB (hundred million)	Quantity YoY	Amount YoY
cotton men's jacket	153.5	1.97	-22.1%	-20.6%
chemical fiber men's jacket	170.1	4.33	-23.1%	-10.5%
cotton women's jacket	86.0	1.10	21.1%	-0.5%
chemical fiber women's jacket	357.5	7.43	-2.6%	-11.5%

Export of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

It can be seen from the data that the export of Down jacket has gone out of the off-season, and has been growing for four months. However, the export volume in June was significantly lower than that of last year.

In the past three years, the export of Down jacket in June was not ideal. Looking at the situation in the past nine years, the export of Down jacket in June this year is only better than that in June 2020. This year's export of Down jacket can be said to have shown bad signs.

In terms of imports, in June 2023, 282000 pieces of down garments were imported, an increase of 41.7% month on month; The import amount was RMB 289 million, an increase of 6.6% compared to the previous month.

Statistics of Down and Feather Exports from Major Provinces and Cities from January to June - Wandering at a Low Point

According to Chinese customs data, in the first half of 2023, the export volume and value of down and feather in Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country. Although the export volume decreased significantly from May to June, the export amount continued to rise in these two months.

From January to June, Zhejiang Province exported 6938 tons of down and feather, a decrease of 31% compared to last year; The export amount was 965 million yuan (RMB, the same below), a decrease of 30% year-on-year.

In the first half of 2023, the export volume and value of down and feather in Anhui Province ranked second in the country.

From January to June, Anhui Province exported 6799 tons of down and feather, a decrease of 31% compared to last year; The export amount was 585 million yuan, a decrease of 33% year-on-year.

From January to June, Jiangsu Province exported 2456 tons of down and feather, a decrease of 12% year-on-year; The export amount was 333 million yuan, a decrease of 26% year-on-year. In June of this year, down and feather exports in Jiangsu Province slid to a low point.

From January to June, Guangdong Province exported 779 tons of down and feather, a 50% decrease compared to last year; The export amount was 105 million yuan, a decrease of 38% year-on-year.

From January to June, Hunan Province exported 513 tons of down and feather, a year-on-year increase of 97%; The export amount was 252 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114%.

Since last year, the export of down feathers in Hunan Province has shown a thriving scene of increasing levels, but this scene has suddenly become overshadowed since May this year. And not just in Hunan, the export of down and feather in various provinces is hovering in a low valley.

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