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Weekly Quotes | The expansion of high temperature range leads to a significant decrease in duck yield prediction

2023-06-25 来源：金绒浏览量：1614

summary

The market remained stable this week.

Recently, white duck down has maintained a weak price trend, while goose down and gray duck down have shown a slight upward trend. It seems that the market environment has improved, but due to the hot weather, the amount of down in the raw material has decreased, making it more difficult and costly for down enterprises to process. In addition, under tight financial conditions, they can only sell products at low prices.

Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan provinces and cities have experienced large-scale heatwaves, with many places experiencing the highest temperatures in history. In the coming days, the high temperature range in the north will continue to expand. Affected by this, there are predictions within the duck industry that the production of white feather meat ducks will decrease by about 20% in July.

In May of this year, the export of down feathers and their products remained weak, especially down feathers, which were slightly better than 2020, which was affected by the epidemic. This reflects the slowdown of orders for European and American brands and the decline of textile industry in Southeast Asian countries. Fortunately, the export of Down jacket in China is kept in line.

Monday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1201

Tuesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1596

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1795

good news

Down Garment Import and Export Statistics (May) -- Out of the off-season

In May 2023, a total of 5.564 million pieces of down garments were exported, an increase of 75.5% month on month compared with April this year; The export amount was 978 million yuan, an increase of 71.6% compared to April this year.

May 2023 export list of down jackets

name	Quantity (Ten thousand)	RMB (hundred million)	Quantity YoY	Amount YoY
cotton men's jacket	113.6	1.42	-23.3%	-20.9%
chemical fiber men's jacket	144.3	3.10	-16.5%	-5.7%
cotton women's jacket	70.7	0.95	-37.9%	-42.7%
chemical fiber women's jacket	227.7	4.31	-9.0%	-9.9%

Export of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

It can be seen from the data that the export of Down jacket has gone out of the off-season, but the export volume has dropped significantly compared with last year. One major reason is that the base for the same period last year was relatively high. If compared horizontally for nearly 9 years, the export situation in May this year is considered normal.

At the same time, the export proportion of cotton Down jacket has decreased significantly.

In terms of imports, in May 2023, a total of 199000 pieces of down garments were imported, an increase of 30% month on month; The import amount was 271 million yuan, an increase of 121.6% compared to the previous month.

Down jacket OEM orders from June to August are good, which is expected to explode next year

Quang Viet (Guangyue), a Down jacket foundry, held a shareholders' meeting on the 15th and completed the re-election of directors (including independent directors). After the re election, the new board of directors also elected a new chairman to be replaced by Wu Chaobi on the 15th, and Tang Xiangmei, the vice president of business, was promoted to the position of general manager, effective from July 1st.

Regarding the outlook on the economy, Wu Chaobi expressed "caution with a touch of optimism". Based on the orders in hand, although the base period was relatively high in the second half of last year, June, July, and August entered the traditional peak shipping season, and production and delivery looked good, with only a slight decrease compared to the same period last year.

Wu Chaobi pointed out that this year is the first year for Lululemon to officially place orders, and the order volume will not be too large. It is estimated that the entire year will be around 3 to 4 million US dollars, but the order volume is expected to explode significantly next year. Another outdoor brand customer is expanding their Gore Tex product line and will also ship in the second half of next year.

He believes that from the perspective of outdoor brands, inventory is currently moving towards health, and it is expected that orders placed next year will grow. As for sports products, continuous observation is needed, and the overall order status should be clarified by the end of September.

Orders for Down jacket of all major brands can't wait

There are now reports of explosive orders coming out of cloth for filling down. It is understood that the arrival of this wave of market not only led to a significant increase in sales of cloth for filling down, but also sparked a wave of price increases for some enterprises.

Cloth for filling down is the lining of Down jacket, cotton padded clothes and other autumn and winter clothing, and is an important product in the autumn and winter textile market. As a typical "watch the weather eat" product, the colder the weather, the greater the sales volume of cloth for filling down.

According to relevant sources, orders for Down jacket of all major brands have become unbearable. If we do not arrange production, we may miss the opportunity to sell in the future. Some people even suggest that if the autumn and winter clothing category has not been laid out yet, e-commerce platforms from September to October may fall into a situation of no stock available for sale.

Although it is still unknown whether this winter will usher in a cold winter, the demand for basic Down jacket will not disappear. From the sales data, the sales volume of these products is also extremely large.

bad news

Statistics of down and feather exports from major provinces and cities from January to May - significant decline

According to Chinese customs data, from January to May 2023, the export volume and value of down and feather in Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country. But exports fell sharply in May.

Zhejiang Province exported 5799 tons of down and feather from January to May, a decrease of 29% compared to last year; The export amount was 788 million yuan (RMB, the same below), a 30% decrease compared to last year.

From January to May 2023, the export volume and value of down and feather in Anhui Province ranked second in the country.

Anhui Province exported 5730 tons of down and feather from January to May, a decrease of 27% compared to last year; The export amount was 502 million yuan, a decrease of 29% year-on-year.

Jiangsu Province exported 2166 tons of down and feather from January to May, a decrease of 11% compared to last year; The export amount was 296 million yuan, a decrease of 25% compared to last year. In May of this year, the export of down and feather in Jiangsu Province slightly increased.

Guangdong Province exported 674 tons of down and feather from January to May, a decrease of 51% compared to last year; The export amount was 91 million yuan, a decrease of 37% year-on-year.

Hunan Province exported 477 tons of down and feather from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 122%; The export amount was 234 million yuan, an increase of 155% year-on-year.

Export statistics of "down bedding and quilts" in May - still sluggish

Duvet:

From January to May 2023, 5298.7 tons of "Duvet" were exported, an increase of 65.6% year on year; The export amount was 538 million yuan, an increase of 64.4% year-on-year.

In May 2023, 1050.4 tons of "Duvet" will be exported, an increase of 43.5% year on year; The export amount was 108 million yuan, an increase of 23.6% year-on-year.

In May 2023, the United States will continue to be the largest trading partner of China's "Duvet" exports, accounting for 37% of the total exports of this month, a significant increase in its share. Among them, the export volume was 422.9 tons, an increase of 37.2% year-on-year and 47.7% month on month in April; The export amount was 42 million yuan, an increase of 31.8% year-on-year.

Japan was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 11% of total exports, followed by Spain with 9.3% and the UK with 8.8%.

Other down bedding:

According to Chinese customs data, a total of 14300 tons of "other down bedding" were exported from January to May 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 28.6%; The export amount was 604 million yuan, a decrease of 37.9% compared to last year.

In May 2023, 2822.7 tons of "other down bedding" were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%; The export amount was 108 million RMB, a decrease of 27.5% compared to last year.

In May 2023, the United States remained the largest trading partner for China's "other down bedding" exports, accounting for 53% of the total export volume this month, with a slight increase in the proportion. Among them, the export quantity was 1503.0 tons, an increase of 20.8% year-on-year; The export amount was 49 million yuan, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year.

Germany was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 7% of total exports; Subsequently, the UK accounts for 6% and Canada accounts for 5%.

Down bedding (Duvet and other bedding):

From January to May 2023, a total of 19600 tons of "down bedding" were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%; The export amount was 1.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%.

In May this year, when Duvet was exported to the United States, the export volume of "down bedding" in that month increased by 5% year on year. Unfortunately, the base in May last year was relatively low, and it was the lowest point of "monthly exports" in 2022, even lower than during the Spring Festival.

On the other hand, June may begin the peak export season for "down bedding".

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