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Weekly Quotes | Down jacket orders in Southeast Asian countries are declining, reducing down demand

2023-05-03 来源：金绒浏览量：2112

summary

The market continued to maintain a stable trend this week.

In April, there was a significant increase in the supply of substitute duck seedlings nationwide, but in May and June, as the temperature gradually increased, the yield of duck seedlings may fluctuate and decrease. The weakening situation of duck feather prices will continue for some time. In addition, due to seasonal factors, the content of down in raw material feather is decreasing, which puts pressure on down manufacturers' production and leads to slow market growth.

The export of down and feather in March 2021 hit a new low in recent years, and this year's down and feather export is not much better. The slowdown in ordering momentum among European and American brand customers has led to a decline in the textile industry in Southeast Asian countries, reducing demand for down and feather. At the same time, China's down and feather imports from Vietnam, Taiwan, China and Thailand have doubled.

In previous years, the export trade of down jackets will start in May, and the domestic 6.18 e-commerce stocking node will arrive, so the market in May may be of great concern. However, in recent times, commodities have been continuously falling, and signs of the off-season in the weaving market have been preliminarily revealed, and overall expectations are also weak.

Monday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.8835

Tuesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.8847

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9237

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9207

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9240

good news

Down Clothing Import and Export Statistics (March) - Far Exceeding Previous Years

2023年3月，羽绒服装合计出口 287.1 万件，环比今年2月增长了 88.9% ；出口金额为 4.66 亿元人民币，环比今年2月增长了 97.2% 。

March 2022 export list of down jackets

name	Quantity (Ten thousand)	RMB (hundred million)	Quantity YoY	Amount YoY
cotton men's jacket	102.3	1.23	278.2%	265.1%
chemical fiber men's jacket	40.6	1.10	-0.9%	60.9%
cotton women's jacket	96.6	1.22	407.4%	267.1%
chemical fiberwomen's jacket	47.5	1.11	4.8%	43.3%

Export of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

From the data, it can be seen that the export of down jackets has entered the traditional off-season, but the export volume in March this year far exceeded the same period in previous years, reflecting the improvement of export capacity. Unfortunately, the excess of down jackets, whose fabric is made of cotton, is still considered a discounted sale.

Since last year, the export of cotton down jackets has been affected by China's overseas cotton circulation ban, and the overall export situation is not as good as in previous years. However, since November, the export of cotton down jackets has shown a counter trend of growth, and until March this year, their monthly export volume has basically exceeded the same period in previous years.

In terms of imports, in March 2023, a total of 152000 pieces of down clothing were imported, an increase of 65.3% compared to the previous month; The import amount was RMB 85 million, a decrease of 44.3% compared to the previous month.

Argentina will use RMB to settle Chinese imports, bringing opportunities for down jacket exports

On April 26th local time, Argentine Economy Minister Massa held a press conference and announced that Argentina will stop using US dollars to pay for goods imported from China and instead use RMB for settlement. This measure aims to alleviate the country's decreasing US dollar reserves.

Massa stated that after reaching an agreement with different companies, Argentina will use RMB to pay for Chinese imported goods worth approximately $1.04 billion this month. The use of RMB can accelerate the pace of Argentine imports of Chinese goods in the coming months, and the efficiency of related authorizations will be higher.

For Chinese foreign trade enterprises, Argentina's move can avoid foreign exchange risks caused by exchange rate fluctuations, reduce the expenses and time costs incurred by enterprises due to exchange, and reduce trade costs, improve the competitiveness of enterprises, while deepening economic ties between the two countries.

There are many types of foreign trade products from China in Argentina, including mechanical and electrical equipment, textiles, electronic products, chemical products, building materials, medical equipment, etc. Among them, textiles such as clothing, shoes and hats, and home textiles are well-known in Argentina for their affordable prices and stable quality.

In terms of down jacket exports, due to Argentina's economic downturn, social unrest, and the impact of the epidemic in recent years, the export volume has been hovering at a low point in the past three years, far from the peak in 2017.

However, in 2022, there were signs of recovery in the export of down jackets to Argentina, with an annual export quantity of 180000 pieces, a year-on-year increase of 104%, and an export amount of 29.22 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185%. Nowadays, with Argentina settling in RMB, down jacket exports are also facing opportunities.

In terms of trade risks, Argentina is currently one of the economies with the highest inflation rate in the world. Therefore, it is recommended that export enterprises pay close attention to the license category of relevant trade to predict the possible risk of delayed collection, and make good use of policy financial instruments such as export credit insurance.

bad news

Export statistics of "down bedding and quilts" in March - much worse than in previous years

Duvet:

From January to March 2023, a total of 3147.6 tons of "down jackets" were exported, an increase of 97.0% year-on-year; The export amount was RMB 323 million, an increase of 113.1% year-on-year.

In March 2023, 1181.8 tons of "down jackets" were exported, an increase of 38.8% year-on-year; The export amount was 126 million yuan, an increase of 54.1% year-on-year.

In March 2023, the United States continued to be China's largest trading partner in the export of "down jackets", accounting for 29% of the total export volume this month, with a slight increase in the proportion. Among them, the export quantity was 348.6 tons, an increase of 166.3% year-on-year; The export amount was 33 million yuan, an increase of 149.2% year-on-year.

Japan was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 17% of total exports, followed by Germany with 12% and Australia with 9%.

Other down bedding:

According to Chinese customs data, from January to March 2023, a total of 8281.5 tons of "other down bedding" were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 39.0%; The export amount was RMB 356 million, a decrease of 44.7% compared to last year.

In March 2023, 3123.0 tons of "other down bedding" were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%; The export amount was 134 million yuan, a decrease of 26.2% compared to last year.

In March 2023, the United States remained the largest trading partner for China's exports of "other down bedding", accounting for 44% of the total export volume this month, with a slight increase in proportion. Among them, the export quantity was 1372.9 tons, a decrease of 24.1% year-on-year; The export amount was 45 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.3%.

Germany was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 9% of total exports; Secondly, the UK accounts for 7% and Japan accounts for 5%.

Down bedding (Duvet and other bedding)

From January to March 2023, a total of 11429.1 tons of "down bedding" were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 24.7%; The export amount was RMB 679 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%.

Compared to previous years, exports in the first quarter of this year decreased by about 30%.

Statistics of down and feather exports from major provinces and cities in the first quarter of this year

According to Chinese customs data, in the first quarter of 2023, the export volume of down and feather in Anhui Province ranked first in the country.

Anhui Province exported 3548 tons of down and feather from January to March, a decrease of 27% compared to last year; The export amount was 283 million yuan (RMB, the same below), a decrease of 30% year-on-year.

In the first quarter of 2023, the export volume of down and feather in Zhejiang Province ranked first in the country.

Zhejiang Province exported 3192 tons of down and feather from January to March, a decrease of 26% compared to last year; The export amount was 452 million yuan, a decrease of 24% year-on-year.

Jiangsu Province exported 1327 tons of down and feather from January to March, a decrease of 3% year-on-year; The export amount was 182 million yuan, a decrease of 25% compared to last year. In the first quarter of this year, the export volume of down and feather in Jiangsu Province has steadily increased.

Guangdong Province exported 406 tons of down and feather from January to March, a decrease of 39% compared to last year; The export amount was 52 million yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year.

Hunan Province exported 279 tons of down and feather from January to March, a year-on-year increase of 63%; The export amount was 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%.

The wave of layoffs in the United States cannot stop! The manufacturing industry is on the brink of collapse

Since the beginning of this year, the US government has continuously reported good news of "record low unemployment rate", but in contrast, it is the "layoff wave" in the US technology industry. At the same time, the wave of layoffs has spread from the technology industry to the finance, consumer, and even manufacturing industries.

According to data from the employment tracking website Layoffs.fyi, the total number of layoffs from January to March 2023 was 168582, 17 times the number of layoffs in the same period last year. The number of layoffs in the first quarter of 2023 has exceeded the total data for the entire year of 2022.

According to a CNN report, indicators show that the backlog of orders in the US manufacturing industry has been largely digested, and there may be a wave of layoffs as soon as this year. Economists at Wells Fargo Bank say that although weak demand has reduced the backlog of orders owed by manufacturers, once these orders are completed and demand remains sluggish, these companies will begin to consider layoffs.

According to statistics from the US Department of Labor, manufacturing employment opportunities in the US decreased in February, the first time in 21 months, and there were also reports of layoffs in March. In addition, bankruptcy of American companies is not uncommon.

On April 23 local time, 3B Company (Bed Bath&Beyond) announced that it and some of its parton had applied for bankruptcy protection in New Jersey. As the once second largest home textile retail enterprise in the United States, 3B owes billions of dollars in debt and has a list of over 20000 creditors.

According to the report, filing for bankruptcy protection will provide breathing space for 3B Company to conduct clearance sales in its stores and attract potential buyers to purchase the company's remaining assets. If a buyer really appears, 3B Company will abandon the liquidation plan and choose to sell the assets.

Analysis has pointed out that in recent years, many companies in the US retail industry have filed for bankruptcy protection due to high interest rates and economic recession prospects, including David's Bridal, the largest wedding dress retailer in the United States.

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