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Weekly Quotes | Goose down prices have soared, and enterprises have resumed production

2023-02-05 来源：金绒浏览量：2558

summary

Goose down prices soared this week after the opening of the new year.

At the end of the year, many enterprises received orders, so as soon as the Spring Festival holiday was over, these enterprises began to resume work and production. In order to meet the order demand, the enterprise is actively expanding production and capacity, and further purchasing production raw materials.

Goose down continues to be popular in the domestic market this year, and even the long holiday has not been able to delay the soaring price. Goose breeding decreased last year, and the goose market has not started yet, so the price of goose down remains strong, and the price of duck feather raw material also increases. However, there is still a lack of orders for finished duck down, and the market is stable at present.

In 2022, the export situation of China's down industry is general, among which the demand for down bedding in overseas markets has declined significantly, and the export of down clothing is also relatively low. However, with the further implementation of RCEP, the economic and trade potential is expected to be stimulated.

Wednesday: The price of white goose down and gray goose down rose, white duck down and gray duck down remained the same

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7492

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7130

Friday: The price of white goose down and gray goose down rose, white duck down and gray duck down remained the same

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7382

good news

Import and export statistics of down clothing (December)

In December 2022, a total of 5.783 million pieces of down clothing were exported, down 4.6% from the previous month; The export value was 830 million yuan, down 24.2% from the previous month.

Export Table of Down Garments in December 2022

name	Quantity (Ten thousand)	RMB (hundred million)	Quantity YoY	Amount YoY
cotton men's jacket	107.1	1.28	163.0%	166.4%
chemical fiber men's jacket	83.9	1.79	-30.2%	-19.3%
cotton women's jacket	198.3	2.11	345.3%	162.7%
chemical fiberwomen's jacket	188.9	3.15	-14.4%	-17.2%

Export of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

It can be seen from the data that the export of down jacket is in the peak season. However, since September, the export situation has seen a significant decline. In October, the situation was basically flat, and there was a significant decline again in November. However, in December, it remained strong, and even increased by 35.7% compared with the same period last year.

In the middle of this year, the export of down jacket made of cotton fabrics was affected by the ban on overseas circulation of cotton in China, and the overall export situation was lower than that in previous years. However, since November, the export of down jackets made of cotton fabrics has increased against the trend, and by December, there has been a momentum of clearing the warehouse.

In terms of imports, in December 2022, a total of 222000 pieces of down clothing were imported, down 44.0% from the previous month; The import value was 299 million yuan, down 48.6% from the previous month. The implementation of the new national standard of down jacket may also have an impact on the sales of imported down jacket, with the import volume of this month decreasing by 62% year-on-year.

Statistics of down and feather exports of major provinces and cities from January to December

According to the data of China Customs, from January to December 2022, Zhejiang ranked first in the country in terms of the export volume and export value of down and feather.

Zhejiang exported 18500 tons of down and feather from January to December, up 7.3% year on year; The export value was 2.33 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), up 29.6% year on year.

Zhejiang exported 1316 tons of down feather in December, down 13.0% year on year; The export value was 131 million yuan, down 11.0% year on year.

In this month, Zhejiang's down and feather exports fell slightly again.

Anhui Province exported 18000 tons of down and feather from January to December, up 4.6% year on year; The export value was 1.461 billion yuan, up 25.2% year on year.

Anhui Province exported 1780 tons of down feather in December, up 37.8% year on year; The export value was 126 million yuan, up 24.8% year on year.

Although Anhui Province has made efforts for two consecutive months, and its annual export volume has reached a new high in recent years, it still ranks second with a slight gap.

Jiangsu Province exported 4558 tons of down feather from January to December, down 23.9% year on year; The export value was 658 million yuan, down 3.3% year on year.

Jiangsu Province exported 363.9 tons of down and feather in December, down 52.2% year on year; The export value was 52 million yuan, down 54.2% year on year.

Guangdong Province exported 2255 tons of down and feather from January to December, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%; The export value was 252 million yuan, down 3.6% year on year.

Shandong exported 1096 tons of down feather from January to December, up 0.7% year on year; The export value was 184 million yuan, down 14.2% year on year.

Shanghai exported 687 tons of down feather from January to December, an increase of 139.4% year on year; The export value was 95 million yuan, up 130.6% year on year.

Export statistics of "down bedding and quilts" in December

Down bedding:

According to the data of China Customs, 2635.4 tons of "down bedding" were exported in December 2022, an increase of 2.8% from November; The export value was 131 million yuan, up 12.3% from November.

From January to December, a total of 42400 tons of "down bedding" were exported, with an export value of 2.111 billion yuan.

In December 2022, the United States remained the largest trading partner of China's "down bedding" exports, accounting for 45.3% of the total exports of that month. Among them, the export volume was 1193.9 tons, up 5.4% from November; The export value was 44 million yuan, up 18.2% from November.

Australia was the second largest trading partner in the month, accounting for 8.2% of the total exports; Germany accounted for 7.4%, and the UK accounted for 7.0%.

Duvet:

In December 2022, the export of "down quilt" was 1505.1 tons, up 8.7% month-on-month from November; The export value was 144 million yuan, down 4.3% from November.

From January to December, a total of 12300 tons of "down quilts" were exported, with an export value of 1.293 billion yuan.

In December 2022, Germany became the largest trading partner of China's "duvet" exports, accounting for 27% of the total exports of that month. Among them, the export volume was 410.4 tons, an increase of 67.9% year-on-year in November, a sharp increase for two consecutive months; The export value was 39 million yuan, up 79.2% from November.

The United States fell to the second largest trading partner in the month, accounting for 24% of total exports, followed by Australia accounting for 7%, and the United Kingdom accounting for 6%.

Down bedding + duvet:

From January to December 2022, the export of "down bedding and quilts" totaled 54700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.0%; The export value was 3.404 billion yuan, down 7.6% year on year.

On the first anniversary of the official entry into force of RCEP, there is still great room for the development of down export

On January 1, 2023, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) officially entered into force for one year. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in 2022, China's total imports and exports to other members of the RCEP reached 12.95 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, accounting for 30.8% of China's total imports and exports.

For enterprises, the direct benefit of the effective implementation of RCEP is reflected in the reduction of trade costs caused by tariff reduction. According to the agreement, more than 90% of the goods trade in the region will eventually achieve zero tariff, and the tax will be reduced to zero immediately and to zero within 10 years, which greatly boosts the willingness of intra-regional trade.

On January 2, 2023, RCEP officially entered into force for Indonesia. Since then, the number of effective members among the 15 signatories of the RCEP has reached 14, the cumulative range of regions of origin has been further expanded, and regional economic integration has developed in depth.

According to customs data, in 2022, China's down and feather exports to other members of RCEP reached 11200 tons, up 13.5%, accounting for 24% of the total exports; The export volume was 2.688 billion yuan, up 30.7%, accounting for 50% of the total export volume.

However, the data also showed that in recent years, the period of the largest export to these 14 countries was 2018 before the epidemic, and the export volume in 2022 was still lower than that in 2017 and 2019. This also shows that there is still great room for the development of down feather exports to other member countries of RCEP in the future.

In 2023, with the further implementation of the opening commitments of the agreement by the RCEP parties, the regional economic and trade potential is expected to be further stimulated and make greater contributions to the global economic and trade recovery.

bad news

The supply gap is large, and the duck industry expands its capacity

According to Liu Changsheng, the head of Shandong Duck Breeding Alliance and the relevant heads of Yike Food, the price of white feather meat duck seedlings has risen from 1.7 yuan/feather on January 1 to 6.1 yuan/feather on January 31, an increase of about 260% in the last month.

Liu Changsheng said: "After 30 months of losses in the duck breeding industry, many production capacities have exited, not including small and medium-sized production capacity. In 2022, five or six large poultry breeding enterprises with an annual output of more than 100 million birds have closed down. With the recovery of downstream consumer demand, the gap between supply and demand has begun to manifest and continues to increase. At present, poultry breeding enterprises can only meet 60% of the demand with full production."

The person in charge of Yike Food also said that the company has been expanding the capacity of breeding poultry recently. It is reported that in the A-share market, New Hope and ST Huaying have meat duck breeding and poultry breeding business.

According to the agricultural and animal husbandry industry released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, by the end of 2022, the national poultry stock was 6.77 billion, down 22 million, down 0.2% from the end of the previous year; The number of domestic poultry sold nationwide was 16.14 billion, an increase of 400 million or 2.5% over the previous year, the highest in the past seven years, breaking through 16 billion for the first time.

The scale of muscovy duck breeding was reduced by 60%, and the seedling price reached a new high

According to statistics, from January 2020 to January 2023, the overall scale of muscovy duck breeding decreased by nearly 60%. Whether it is breeding duck, young duck or commercial duck, the number of its stocks has seriously shrunk.

Because of this, the market supply of duck seedlings is also seriously insufficient. With the arrival of the breeding season after the opening of the new year, the market demand for duck seedlings has steadily increased, and the price of duck seedlings has also soared. One of the most scarce white duck seedlings even exceeded 11 yuan.

Even though all production links in the muscovy duck breeding industry have been put into production at full capacity from now on, it will take at least one year to recover to the level of more than 80% before 2020.

Therefore, this year's muscovy duck breeding industry may be the "worst hit area" of all poultry breeding industries. Muscovy ducks, from duck eggs to duck seedlings to commercial ducks, will be in high position for a long time.

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