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Weekly Quotes | Economic downturn, foreign trade development will face challenges

2023-01-16 来源：金绒浏览量：1770

summary

The duck down price of ducks fell this week, and the market remained stable on the whole.

The year of Renyin in the lunar calendar has entered the end of the year. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the inventory of upstream enterprises is waiting to rise, and the market situation is calm and gradually calmed down to welcome the arrival of the holiday and the market close before the holiday. Expectations and doubts about the market should wait until the end of the year.

After the COVID-19 calmed down, the flow of people around the country improved significantly, and the market shipment of duck products also improved significantly. In addition, the Spring Festival stock preparation started, which greatly alleviated the inventory pressure in the slaughtering process. The meat duck market has entered the peak period, which has increased the supply of down raw materials again.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 13, China's imports in December increased by 2.2% year-on-year, while exports in December fell by 0.5% year-on-year. At present, the foundation of China's economic recovery is not solid, the external environment is volatile, the downward pressure on the world economy is increasing, and China's foreign trade development is still facing many difficulties and challenges.

Monday: The price of white duck down and gray duck down fell, white goose down, and gray goose down remained the same

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.8265

Tuesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7611

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7756

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7680

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.7292

good news

Chinese enterprises appeared at the Frankfurt Home Textile Exhibition, and the grand occasion exceeded expectations

On January 10, the 2023 Frankfurt International Household and Commercial Textile Exhibition (Frankfurt Home Textile Exhibition) opened. The exhibition is the most professional, international, scale and influential home textile exhibition. The number of exhibitors this year is 2718, while the number of Chinese enterprises is more than 400.

As a traditional textile manufacturing and exporting country, China's textile enterprises from Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong and other places have made appearances, mainly in Hall 10 and Hall 6. Among them, the exhibits in Hall 10 are duvets and pillows, bed sheets, bathroom textiles and decorative cushions.

Many Chinese exhibitors said that this was the first time they had come to the exhibition since the outbreak of the epidemic. They hoped to take this opportunity to show the confidence of enterprises to open their arms and embrace the international market again, and to win the favor of more overseas customers with their own advantages.

Most enterprises go to the exhibition in person from home, and a few enterprises choose to participate on behalf of others. Some enterprises said that the number of visitors on the first day of this year's exhibition was much higher than expected, and the number of visitors was even higher than in previous years. Even the effect of the representative exhibition was not discounted, and they were very satisfied with the booth.

"We have opened our arms to welcome guests and hope that new and old customers will continue to cooperate with us." Cao Shiyu, the marketing director of Jiangsu Carnation Travel Products Co., Ltd., said of the exhibition.

It is reported that Jiangsu Carnation Textile Group is a comprehensive hotel linen supplier in the Asia-Pacific region. Its business covers more than 40 countries and regions including Europe, America, Oceania, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. At this exhibition, its companies brought food fiber products, silver ion antibacterial products, ergonomic pillow core and other products in combination with the European concept of environmental protection.

Near the end of the year, foreign trade enterprises are entering a critical period of expanding the market and seizing orders. As early as last Sunday, Xiaoshan organized 15 enterprises to go to Germany to participate in the Frankfurt International Home and Commercial Textile Exhibition.

Before going to Germany, Gao Xiaoyuan from Hangzhou Banfu Down Products Co., Ltd. said: "The government has given us great support on air tickets and booths, so that we can participate in foreign exhibitions without worries and have more opportunities to get foreign orders."

ST Huaying: The income of down business increases by 15% - 20% every year. It is planned to sell 50 million feather ducks and duck seedlings this year

ST Huaying (002321) released the record form of investor relations activities on January 9, and the company accepted the survey of 10 institutional units on January 8, 2023.

ST Huaying said that through the reorganization, the reorganization investors contributed more than 7 billion yuan, and the auction assets recovered more than 3 billion yuan, nearly 1.1 billion yuan, most of which were used to repay the creditor's rights. The remaining funds are relatively abundant for the current production and operation.

In the half year of 2022, the company's down business achieved a revenue of 716 million yuan, which has reached 1.459 billion yuan by the end of the third quarter. Because of the obvious seasonality of down sales, the third quarter is the best sales season, and the period from October to February of the next year is mainly the process of collecting orders.

At present, the company's down business accounts for a relatively high proportion of revenue. By the end of the third quarter of 2022, the proportion has reached 60%, and the gross profit rate is about 6%. In the future, the company will tilt more resources and focus on improving the market share of down. It is expected that the revenue of down business will maintain an annual growth of 15% - 20% in recent years.

The down production capacity of the company is 8000 tons, with full production and full sales. Down exports account for about 20%, mainly to the United States, Italy, South Korea, Southeast Asia and other regions. Orders are relatively stable. The main operating body of the company's duck down is in Xuancheng, Anhui Province, mainly engaged in down processing and trade, and the direct cost (purchased raw material down and semi-finished products) accounts for the majority of the cost.

In terms of the competition of the down industry, the listed company Zhonghua Ying's agricultural income ranks first, and both Liuhe and Yike have entered this link through the establishment of subsidiaries very early. In terms of market share of duck down business, Liuqiao is currently ranked first, and the company can basically rank the top three, with domestic market share of 6% - 8%.

The market price of duck down is mainly affected by the upstream market volume, the price of similar/similar products and other factors. The price of duck down varies with different specifications. At present, it is priced according to the market price. About 50 million feather ducks and duck seedlings are planned to be sold this year, mainly for supporting slaughtering and cooked food.

Last year, the shipment volume exploded, and the down jacket OEM factory will expand its own production line

On the 9th, Quang Viet, a major manufacturer of down clothing, announced that the consolidated revenue in December was 1.556 billion yuan, up 4.62% from the same period last year, and the accumulated consolidated revenue in the whole year reached 20.062 billion yuan, a record high, up 54.22% from the same period last year.

Looking forward to 2023, Quang Viet said that the customer orders of various brands are under continuous development. In addition, the Group has also continued to focus on the diversification of product categories and expansion of production bases, with a view to gradually weakening the gap between the weak and peak seasons of the Group's operation and expanding its operation scale year by year.

KWONG LUNG, another large down garment OEM factory, saw a large explosion of ready-to-wear shipments last year. The consolidated revenue of the whole year reached 10.295 billion yuan, an increase of 27.7%, and the proportion of ready-to-wear revenue also jumped from 46% to 56%.

Looking forward to 2023, KWONG LUNG will introduce four to five new brand customers, which is estimated to bring in 10 million dollars of new order injection. At the same time, it will invest 4.5 million dollars in the expansion of the existing Vietnam production area, and add 20 own production lines. It is planned to put into production in the third quarter. It will also invest in the second production area of the whole world of ready-to-wear in Indonesia, which will be put into production in the fourth quarter at the earliest. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the scale of its own production lines will expand to 94 to 98.

Wear new clothes for the New Year, and the clothing market welcomes the peak sales season

With the Spring Festival approaching, the clothing market has ushered in a sales peak. Many clothing stores have launched various promotional activities. People who choose clothes and try on clothes are bustling, and shopping guides are also busy. After a lot of "shopping", most people come home with big bags and small bags.

"This down jacket only costs more than 300 yuan after a 40% discount. It looks very good. It's almost the New Year's Day. Wearing a new dress adds joy," said Ms. Zhao, who selected the clothes.

These days, the annual year-end clearance sale of Hangzhou Sijiqing Garment Wholesale Market is very popular. Yang Mengqing, a shop assistant, said: "You can sell 40 or 50 pieces of clothes a day, and the daily sales volume is about 10000 yuan."

The shop assistant of Xiuzijia, the main original Korean shop on the first floor, said that just last weekend, our down jacket was almost sold out. The daily sales of these days reached 50000 yuan from about 200 yuan for long down jacket and 150 yuan for short down jacket.

In Huangyuan Garment Market, many stores have printed the words "clearance at the end of the year" and "special price" in the most prominent position. The price of winter bulky items such as down jacket varies from 50 yuan to about 2000 yuan. Most stores will write that they do not bargain, do not return or change, and some stores will specifically write that they can try on.

In addition to the retail end, the wholesale end is also very hot. In the shop of the operator Xu Xiaojian, the purchaser is selecting down jacket styles. "In these two days, 3000 down jackets will be sold every day, more than twice as usual." Xu Xiaojian said that the buyers who take the goods are mainly from the surrounding counties and cities, and it is expected that the market will continue until the Spring Festival of the Year of the Rabbit.

"I drove here from Wuyi to buy down jackets and bottoms." The buyer Ning Yan said that the goods just taken a few days ago have been sold out, which is the last replenishment for the Spring Festival.

Jinquan Tourism's IPO was approved, and the production capacity of down sleeping bags will increase by 26%

On the evening of January 6, 2023, the CSRC website disclosed the approval of the initial public offering of shares of Yangzhou Jinquan Tourism Products Co., Ltd., the main board enterprise of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In this IPO project, 97.74 million raised funds are planned to be used for the technical transformation project of the production line of 35 top sleeping bags per year, and the production capacity will be expanded by 26%.

It is understood that Jinquan Tourism is mainly engaged in the R&D, design, production and sales of outdoor products. The company's main products are tents, sleeping bags, outdoor clothing, backpacks and other outdoor products. The main raw materials required by the company include fabrics (nylon, polyester, vinylon, etc.), fillers (down, hollow cotton, etc.), etc.

During the reporting period, the change in the purchase volume of filled down is closely related to the change in the sales volume of down sleeping bags and down jackets. Because the amount of down filling of down sleeping bags per unit is more than that of down jacket, the purchase amount of down filling is more closely related to the sales volume of down sleeping bags.

In each period of the reporting period, the purchase amount of filled down was 25.2326 million yuan, 30.5252 million yuan and 38.1363 million yuan respectively, showing an increasing trend, which is consistent with the sales growth of the company's down sleeping bags during the reporting period. From 2019 to January to June, 2022, the purchase quantity of filled down was 47.53 tons, 57.35 tons, 77.11 tons and 39.89 tons respectively, showing an increasing trend, which matched the sales growth of the company's down sleeping bags during the reporting period.

bad news

The supply of meat duck decreased significantly last year, and may increase slightly this year

In 2022, the domestic meat duck market supply will decline significantly. As of November 30, the total number of seedlings of domestic sample incubators in 2022 was 95.153 million, a decrease of 4.75% over the same period last year, of which the number of enterprises emerging from June to September was significantly reduced, a cumulative decrease of 28.27%.

In terms of duck seedlings, affected by the extreme high temperature weather in the second and third quarters, the fertilization rate of duck eggs dropped by 5-10 percentage points, which superimposed the early de-capacity of the incubation link, resulting in a reduction in the market volume of duck seedlings and an increase in the price. In 2022, the average price of domestic duck seedlings was 3.45 yuan/feather, up 37.71% year on year; The emergence of meat ducks was 1.020 billion, down 1.90% year on year.

The consumption of duck products will decrease year by year from 2019 to 2022. Among them, the price of live pigs rose and the consumption of poultry meat increased in 2019; In 2020, the demand for poultry meat market will fall, and the demand for duck products will decrease accordingly; Although the consumption will continue to decline in 2021, the price of meat duck will rebound after falling; In 2022, the consumption fell to the lowest level in the past five years, and the consumption of duck products was 7.92 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.16%.

According to the stock of breeding ducks and the de-capacity of enterprises, it is comprehensively estimated that the stock of breeding ducks of parents in production will increase slightly in 2023. According to the calculation of breeding period of breeding ducks, the emergence of commercial duck seedlings and the production of commercial meat ducks will decrease first and then increase in 2023, and the total supply will increase by 3% - 5% year-on-year.

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