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Weekly Quotes | The first wave of rehabilitation of COVID-19 patients and the market recovery; Increased possibility of warmer temperature in January

2023-01-01 来源：金绒浏览量：1816

summary

In the near future, the down market has been rising and falling, and has remained stable on the whole.

Due to the increase of COVID-19 infected people, the output of some feather distribution centers has decreased. However, the production of down products has come to an end near the end of the year, so the purchase demand of down is not strong and the turnover is limited.

Affected by the epidemic, stores in some areas of the clothing market were temporarily closed, down jacket sales showed a significant downward trend, and logistics delivery was also affected. Fortunately, more and more people are recovering from the epidemic. In addition, with the upcoming Spring Festival, merchants will increase their sales promotion efforts with the help of festival activities.

The weather in January has a significant impact on the prosperity of the down product market. However, the temperature in most parts of the country has risen, and the temperature in the first ten days of January will rise to a higher level than that in the same period of the year.

Monday: The price of white duck down and gray duck down fell, white goose down, and gray goose down remained the same

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9825

Tuesday:Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9546

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9681

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9793

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9646

good news

The shipment volume in the peak sales season at the end of the year increased, and the logistics enterprises were busy receiving orders

With the cold wave coming and the Spring Festival promotion season coming, Puyuan Town, Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, ushered in the year-end sales peak season. It is understood that since December, the average daily shipment of winter clothing market in Puyuan Town, Zhejiang Province has remained at about 1200 tons, an increase of nearly 70% compared with November.

In the warehouse of a clothing enterprise, more than 2 million pieces of winter clothing will be shipped to more than 1600 stores across the country in less than a month. In Puyuan Fashion Center, business owner Yang Jianqin is busy entertaining customers while putting the latest down jacket, turtleneck sweater and other winter clothing on the shelves.

The sharp increase in the shipment volume of various merchants has also increased the logistics pressure in Puyuan Town. In order to improve the delivery efficiency, many merchants have already launched tricycles and trucks to ensure that the goods can be delivered in the shortest time. Many local logistics enterprises are also stepping up the recruitment of freight drivers to supplement the transportation capacity.

Shen Yueping is the head of a textile company in Zhejiang Puyuan. This year, because overseas and domestic customers are making up orders at the end of the year, the most important task of Shen Yueping is to focus on delivery logistics every day recently. The growth of online orders and the rise of live broadcast e-commerce have made many merchants like Shen Yueping pay more attention to the timeliness of order shipment.

Several shopping centers opened in a centralized manner, and Chengdu's fireworks returned

"This weekend, there are more people," said Pan, a citizen of Chengdu, who came to buy New Year's goods on his own, taking advantage of the discount in the shopping mall at the end of the year. A security guard on duty at Chunxi Road said: "There are a little more people on Friday than in the previous days. Today is Saturday, and the New Year's Day is coming soon, so there will be more people soon."

Chengdu SKP, which opened on December 20, is also very popular. Many people took photos and punched cards here. The shops were very busy and there were long lines at the entrance of many shops. At the door of a down jacket brand store, there was a long queue of tens of meters, and customers were waiting in the cold wind to enter and select goods.

"We saw the opening here last week, and we had time to come over at the weekend. After coming here, we found that there were many brands and customers, so we won't have to go shopping in Taikoo Li in the future," said a citizen queuing at the door.

In different business districts in Chengdu, many shopping malls also choose to open this weekend. The cluster opening of shopping malls has given Chengdu people more power to "buy and buy", and also shows the common confidence of businesses in Chengdu consumption.

bad news

The number of foreign trade orders for apparel shrinks, and the minimum order quantity of down jackets drops from 1000 to 100

Early in the morning of December 4, Hua Yifan, the business director of Suanhui Garments, stepped on the plane to Japan as the representative of the first batch of Jiaxing enterprises to grab orders. He doesn't have too much scruples about COVID-19 infection. What he is really worried about is that it has become increasingly difficult to open up new customers in the past three years.

However, his seven day trip in Japan erased his concerns. As the exhibition, visitors and negotiations progressed step by step, he won an intention order of 5 million dollars, including not only the down jacket of the current season, but also the sweater, shirt and T-shirt of next spring and summer. "The biggest order on this trip is 20000 down jackets."

In China Yifan's view, in recent years, the scale of apparel foreign trade orders has shrunk as a whole. There are not only the reduction and change of procurement demand, but also the transfer of orders to Southeast Asia. After the implementation of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), Southeast Asia's clothing exports to Japan will be tax-free, and China will gradually be tax-free in a few years.

In fact, the Japanese market has also been hit by the epidemic. Shanhui Garments mainly receives orders from OEM. In the past, the minimum order quantity of customized down jackets was generally at least 800-1000 pieces. However, in the epidemic years, the minimum order quantity has been declining, and even there are orders for 100, 200 or even dozens of pieces.

The clothing order demand in Japan is also beginning to be different from the past. A small example is that in the past, spring and autumn clothing styles in Japan have also appeared like those in China, and people generally pursue higher cost performance.

In addition, more and more young people appear in the mobile phone address book of Huayi Fan. "They tend to be very talkative when they talk about design highlights and fabric details, but when it comes to the order quantity, it is often difficult to show their face. The order quantity of more than ten or twenty pieces is shy of export."

This also gave Huayi Fan inspiration on the future development direction. "Flexible supply chain and one piece minimum order will certainly become a trend. In the past, when purchasing fabrics, it was always thousands of meters or thousands of meters, and hundreds of purchasers had to work together. Therefore, our next main task is to sort out our own supply chain system, and even to seek cooperation with overseas factories."

Export statistics of "down bedding and quilts" in November - down again

Down bedding:

According to Chinese customs data, 2563.7 tons of "down bedding" will be exported in November 2022, down 16.7% month on month; The export amount was RMB 117 million, 26.7% lower than that in October.

From January to November, 39800 tons of "down bedding" were exported, with an export amount of 1.98 billion yuan.

In November 2022, the United States will still be the largest trading partner of China's "down bedding" exports, accounting for 37% of the total exports in that month. Among them, the export volume was 1133.3 tons, 4.4% lower than that in October; The export amount was 37 million yuan, 25.3% lower than that in October.

Britain was the second largest trading partner in the month, accounting for 7% of total exports; Germany accounts for 6% and Australia accounts for 5%.

Duvet:

In November 2022, 1384.3 tons of "down quilts" were exported, an increase of 0.4% month on month; The export amount was 151 million yuan, 2.7% lower than that in October.

From January to November, 10800 tons of "down quilts" were exported, with an export amount of 1.149 billion yuan.

In November 2022, the United States will still be the largest trading partner of China's "duvet" exports, accounting for 35% of the total exports in that month. Among them, the export volume was 479.0 tons, 15.9% lower than that in October, and the four consecutive months of rising was suspended; The export amount was 51 million yuan, 15.7% lower than that in October.

Germany was the second largest trading partner in the month, accounting for 18% of total exports, followed by Japan's 9% and Britain's 7%.

Down bedding + duvet:

From January to November 2022, the export of "down bedding and quilts" totaled 50600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%; The export amount was 3.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%.

The possibility of warmer January is increasing

With the combination of cold air and warm and humid air flow in the southwest, rain and snow continue to develop in southern China recently. It is estimated that there will be moderate snow or heavy snow in Hunan, Guizhou, Yunnan and other regions, and the focus of cooling will also be concentrated in the south of the Yangtze River, where the humidity and cold will increase.

With the recovery of COVID-19 patients and going out, the market finally felt the dividend of "revenge consumption", and many citizens chose down jackets. "I haven't been out shopping for a long time, and I feel deeply about this shopping scene," said Ms. Dong, a consumer.

However, the Central Meteorological Station predicted that in the next 10 days, the influence of cold air on China will be generally weak, and the temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will gradually turn to near perennial or high, with Jiangnan and other places being 2-3 ℃ higher.

After the cold December, the westerlies began to settle down. At the same time, the subtropical high was ready to expand northward during the New Year's Day in 2023, and the possibility of warming in January was increasing.

The market passenger flow decreases, and the sales are obviously lower

According to the China Changshu men's clothing domestic price index, the leisure down jacket domestic price index closed at 97.21 in the middle of December 2022, which was lower than the previous ten days.

In this ten day period, the sales of down jackets have a significant downward trend, and the average sales price has also declined. The national epidemic prevention and control policy has been fully liberalized, the number of COVID-19 infected people in the market has increased, some regional stores have temporarily closed, the market traffic has decreased, and the price of high priced and high-quality down jackets has fallen back.

At the same time, logistics delivery in the market is also affected, and the order delivery of merchants is slow. Near the end of the year, the merchants are also actively preparing for New Year's Day, Spring Festival and other order promotion activities, and the orders of the manufacturers are still in stable production.

It is expected that in the next ten days, the end of the year will come. In addition, with the coming of the Spring Festival, the market merchants will increase their promotion efforts and clear up the inventory with the help of festival activities. The sales volume and price of down jackets will remain stable and volatile.

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