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Weekly Quotes | The export of down to the United States will take a turn for the better after the tariff increase is exempted again

2022-12-25 来源：金绒浏览量：2136

summary

The price of down is generally stable this week.

Although the last cold wave has long passed, the temperature in many parts of China is still relatively cold, creating a good condition for the sales of down products, and there are still some supplementary orders in the finished down market. With the arrival of the winter solstice, most of China has completed the seasonal change and entered the winter on meteorological standards, and the cold air will continue to flow southward.

Near the end of the year, garment enterprises will gradually increase their sales promotion efforts to clear up the inventory, and the sales volume may increase. The production of down products will enter the off-season, and after the epidemic prevention and control is released, many workers will be infected collectively, making the already fragmented textile industry worse.

Due to the serious impact of the epidemic, duck breeding in the north is basically parked, and contract ducks are generally dragged and killed. It can be said that the overall restriction effect of the duck breeding industry is very great, and the supply of down raw materials has a tight trend.

Monday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9746

Tuesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9861

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9650

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9713

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9810

good news

Statistics of down and feather exports of major provinces and cities from January to November

According to Chinese customs data, from January to November 2022, Zhejiang ranked first in terms of the export volume and export volume of down and feathers in China.

Zhejiang Province exported 17200 tons of down and feather from January to November, up 9.3% year on year; The export amount was 2.20 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), up 33.2% year on year.

Zhejiang Province exported 1322.4 tons of down and feather in November, down 9.7% year on year; The export value was 136 million yuan, down 1.6% year on year.

As shown in the figure, Zhejiang's exports in November fell slightly month on month. However, for the other major down and feather exporting provinces, the month on month ratio increased significantly, and there were more provinces with export data than last month.

Anhui Province exported 16200 tons of down and feather from January to November, up 1.9% year on year; The export value was 1.336 billion yuan, up 25.3% year on year.

Anhui Province exported 1564.6 tons of down and feather in November, a year-on-year increase of 23.0%; The export value was 92 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%.

From January to November, Jiangsu Province exported 4195 tons of down and feather, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%; The export value was 606 million yuan, up 6.9% year on year.

Jiangsu Province exported 284.2 tons of down and feather in November, down 55.9% year on year; The export value was 23 million yuan, down 68.8% year on year.

Guangdong Province exported 2118 tons of down and feather from January to November, down 9.6% year on year; The export value was 237 million yuan, down 3.7% year on year.

From January to November, Shandong Province exported 1053 tons of down and feathers, up 12.1% year on year; The export value was 169 million yuan, down 11.6% year on year.

From January to November, Shanghai exported 666 tons of down and feathers, up 249.1% year on year; The export value was 84 million yuan, an increase of 144.5% year on year.

The United States will continue to exempt the three additional tariffs on down, feathers and their products for nine months

On December 16 local time, the United States Trade Representative Office (USTR) announced on its official website that the exemption period of 352 items imported from China that were exempted from additional tariffs in March 2022 would be extended for another nine months from the end of 2022 to September 30, 2023.

USTR said that the extension would help to further consider these exemptions, consistent with the ongoing quadrennial comprehensive review. In October last year, Dai Qi, the US trade representative, announced that he intended to re exempt the tariffs on 549 Chinese imports, but finally confirmed only 352 of the 549 Chinese imports.

The new regulations will apply to goods imported from China between October 12, 2021 and December 31, 2022. It includes 0505.10.0050 feather for filling, 0505.10.0055 down for filling and 9404.90.1000 cotton pillow for filling duck feather or goose feather.

Tax No. and Product Description ‍

美国税号： 0505.10.0050

Feathers（Meeting both test standards 4 and 10.1 of Federal Standard 148a promulgated by the General Services Administration）

羽毛（符合总务管理局颁布的联邦标准148a第4和10.1条的试验标准）

美国税号： 0505.10.0055

Down（Meeting both test standards 4 and 10.1 of Federal Standard 148a promulgated by the General Services Administration）

羽绒（符合总务管理局颁布的联邦标准148a第4和10.1条的试验标准）

美国税号： 9404.90.1000
Pillow shells of cotton, each filled with goose or duck down

填充鸭绒或鹅绒的棉质枕头

In addition, there are 0505.10.0060 goose and duck feathers for filling (cleaned, disinfected or preserved, without further processing) among 549 imported commodities that are not included in 352 exemption lists.

With the arrival of "cold days", the sales of down jackets may enter a peak period

On December 22, 2022, the Gregorian calendar ushered in the "Winter Solstice" solar term. Since then, although the nights have been shorter and the days have been longer, the surface heat accumulation has been less and less. The coldest "nine cold days" of the year have arrived, and it will take 81 days for spring to return.

The Central Meteorological Station predicted that from 24 to 27, weak cold air will affect most of the northern regions. The temperature in northern Xinjiang, the middle and eastern parts of northwest China, the central and western Inner Mongolia, the western part of North China, and the eastern part of southwest China will drop by 4 to 6 ℃, and the local temperature drop will reach more than 8 ℃. Around the 31st, a new cold air will affect the central and eastern regions, bringing strong winds and cooling weather.

In the next 10 days, the temperature in northern North China, southern Northeast China, Jianghuai River, middle and eastern Jiangnan, eastern South China and Yunnan Guizhou Plateau will be 2-4 ℃ lower. At present, as the cold air moves southward in the eastern coastal areas, most parts of China, especially the central and eastern parts, will continue to be cold in late December.

Some insiders said that from the winter solstice to the Spring Festival, the sales of down jackets are at their peak. The key to the success or failure of down jacket manufacturers is their sales performance during this period.

Down jacket orders increased slightly and prices fluctuated

According to the China Changshu men's clothing domestic price index, the domestic price index of leisure down jacket in the first ten days of December 2022 closed at 101.37 points month on month, and the price rose compared with the first ten days of December 2022.

In the first ten days of December, the control of epidemic situation in various regions was liberalized, and the express logistics was gradually restored. The sales orders of down jackets increased slightly and steadily, and the prices rose slightly. The prices of some high-quality styles rose more than those of other styles.

In the wholesale market, the sales in this ten day period have a trend of recovery, the number of new online orders has increased compared with the usual, and the price has also risen slightly. In the production market, the manufacturer's inventory is not large, and the production stock is mainly based on the confirmed orders. The down jacket production orders have risen slightly, and the price has risen slightly due to the cost changes.

It is expected that in the next ten days, near the end of the year, merchants will gradually increase their promotion efforts to clear up the inventory, the sales volume of down jackets will increase, and the sales price will fall back.

bad news

Statistics of Down Garment Import and Export (November)

In July 2022, a total of 10.154 million pieces of down garments were exported, an increase of 18.6% from the previous month; the export value was 2.16 billion yuan, an increase of 28.2% from the previous month.

In November 2022, 6.064 million pieces of down clothing were exported, a decrease of 23.9% month on month; The amount of exports was 1.1 billion yuan, down 28.6% month on month.

Down jacket export table in November 2022

name	Quantity (Ten thousand)	RMB (a hundred million)	Quantity YoY	Amount YoY
cotton men's jacket	132.7	1.71	39.9%	50.6%
chemical fiber men's jacket	130.3	3.25	-34.6%	-11.9%
cotton women's jacket	110.0	1.26	156.7%	78.5%
chemical fiberwomen's jacket	233.4	7.46	-42.3%	-26.0%

Export of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

It can be seen from the data that the export of down jackets is in the peak season. However, since September, the export situation has obviously declined. The situation in October was basically flat, while in November, there was another significant decline, 18.3% less than the same period of last year. It can be seen that the peak season is nearing the end.

In the middle of this year, the export of cotton down jacket was affected by the ban on overseas circulation of Chinese cotton, and the overall export situation was not as good as in previous years. However, the export of cotton down jacket in November is growing against the trend, which may be a good sign.

In terms of imports, in November 2022, 396000 pieces of down clothing were imported, a 55.5% decrease from the previous month; The import amount was 581 million yuan, 33.6% lower than the previous month. The implementation of the new national standard for down jackets may also have an impact on the sales of imported down jackets. The number of imports in this month decreased by nearly half compared with last year.

The fabrics of cold resistant products sell well, but they may not last long in the face of the New Year

A trader revealed that in the past two days, there has been a strong demand for warm clothing fabrics such as down jackets and outdoor functional clothing, and 400 nylon, 420 nylon and polyester fabrics have sold a lot. There are even large orders of 200000 meters and 500000 meters in the market.

The emergence of large orders in the market is partly due to the boost effect brought by the cold winter expectation, and partly due to the gradual restoration of downstream confidence.

President Shen, who is mainly engaged in various chemical fiber fabrics, predicted that "the market in the first half of next year is optimistic. The market will improve next year because of the deregulation of control. Foreign trade orders can be started. In addition, the circulation of domestic trade in the past two years has laid a good foundation. The double circulation of domestic trade and foreign trade will lead the market to a new stage."

Mr. Shi, who produced PONGEE and Nylon taffeta, said: "The 20D Nylon taffeta has sold well recently, but there is still no profit. It is mainly used for the production of down jackets, the last wave before the New Year." He said that 80% of the products were opened last month, and orders have increased recently. So now the machines are fully open, and it is estimated that the holiday will be around January 10.

With the re optimization of epidemic prevention and control, not only the backlog of orders in the early stage began to circulate normally, but also new orders were issued in succession. In the face of the arrival of real orders, many fabric merchants are increasingly willing to stock up at low prices before the year.

However, the New Year is getting closer and closer, and the sustainability of this wave of market conditions may be difficult to sustain under the rush of time. At the same time, with the recent increase in the number of COVID-19 infected workers, downstream factories have been reducing their burden due to insufficient workers on duty, which may lead to some factories that originally planned to postpone their holidays being forced to take early holidays.

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