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Weekly Quotes | In the light snow season, the cold wave comes as expected; Bird flu is getting worse, white duck industry is booming

2022-11-27 来源：金绒浏览量：1999

summary

The price of white duck down fell this week, while that of white goose down rose.

The long-term warmer weather has hit the down product market, and has sharply reduced the turnover of the down raw material market, especially the price of duck down. And the development of down jacket under the new standard towards high-end also makes the demand positioning of white duck down rather awkward.

White goose down continues to be popular in the domestic market, but the output is relatively small this year, so the price is relatively firm. With the approaching of winter, the down quilt will enter the season of sales until the Spring Festival, and the recent cold wave will bring the temperature back to a cold in many areas, which is expected to increase consumption.

The current situation of epidemic prevention and control is severe and complex, the number of new infections is still high and fluctuating, and the subsequent development is still uncertain. Logistics has become a key link in the supply chain of the industrial chain.

Monday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1256

Tuesday: The price of white duck down fell

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1667

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1281

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1201

Friday: The price of white goose down rose

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1339

good news

Statistics of Down Garment Import and Export (October)

In October 2022, 7.972 million pieces of down clothing were exported, a decrease of 0.5% month on month; The export value was 1.54 billion yuan, 5.8% lower than the previous month.

Down jacket export table in October 2022

name	Quantity (Ten thousand)	RMB (billion)	Quantity YoY	Amount YoY
cotton men's jacket	131.2	1.79	-3%	10%
chemical fiber men's jacket	206.8	4.89	-27%	-12%
cotton women's jacket	75.9	0.90	-4%	-26%
chemical fiberwomen's jacket	383.3	7.81	-15%	0.3%

Export of men's down jacket in recent 14 months

Export of women's down jacket in recent 14 months

It can be seen from the data that the export of down jacket is in the peak season, but it began to decline significantly in September, and the export volume fell by 32.8% compared with the same period last year! However, the situation in October was relatively better. Compared with September, it was basically flat, and women's clothing even rose steadily.

Affected by the continuous high inflation and rising inventory in major export markets such as the United States and Europe, China's overall export of down jackets is not as good as that in previous years, especially for men's down jackets.

In terms of imports, in October 2022, 890000 pieces of down clothing were imported, a decrease of 30.5% month on month; The import amount was 875 million yuan, down 10.7% month on month. The domestic sales of down jackets are not good this year, which may also have an impact on imports.

Entering the light snow solar term, the cold wave sweeping the country arrived as scheduled

At 16:20 on November 22, Beijing time, the light snow solar term entered all parts of China. This is the second solar term in winter, which means that the weather is getting colder and the snowfall is spreading.

It can be seen from the evolution chart of the average temperature of various solar terms in autumn and winter all year round in China that the national average temperature in the light snow solar term fell below the freezing point for the first time in the second half of the year, dropping directly from 3.4 ℃ at the beginning of the winter to - 0.1 ℃, and then it became colder and colder, and all parts of the country will also enter a really cold winter one after another.

The Central Meteorological Station predicted that a cold wave will affect the northwest region from the 26th to the 27th, and the temperature in most regions will drop by 10~18 ℃, and the local temperature will be above 20 ℃; From 28th to 30th, the cold wave will move southward and affect the central and eastern regions. The temperature in most regions will drop by 8-14 ℃, and the local temperature will drop by more than 16 ℃; After the cold air front, the daily minimum air temperature 0 ℃ line will gradually press southward to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the north of Guizhou.

The White House of the United States announced on the 21st that 11 counties in New York State, which suffered severe snowstorms, have entered a state of emergency. According to the data released by the National Weather Service, the 24-hour snowfall in Ochard Park, Erie County, south of Buffalo, reached 167 cm, breaking the record of 127 cm set by New York State in 1966. On the whole, extreme weather may be staged on a large scale this winter.

South Korea is experiencing the first "Double 11 Warehouse Congestion"

As soon as China's "Double 11" was over, the South Korean Customs Office could not sit still. It issued a "special customs clearance policy", stating that in response to the peak seasons of China's "Double 11", the Department set up six special teams to support customs offices around the country, and worked overtime at night and weekends to handle import and export business.

The local media reported that because Korean young people are keen on China's "Double 11" shopping festival, the customs warehouse is full of goods, so they have to send more people to work overtime to deal with these parcels from China. At present, Koreans in 2022 are experiencing the first "Double 11 Warehouse Congestion".

According to customs data, South Korea imported 1.019 million pieces of all kinds of down jackets from China in September, becoming a "big importer" of down jackets. With the approaching of the peak demand for warmth preservation, the export of China's duvet to South Korea also ushered in the peak season.

At present, the economic situation in South Korea is not optimistic, and the high cost performance made in China can best meet the requirements of Korean consumers. On Korean social media, there are a lot of nanny level "Taobao shopping" strategies, which teach people how to buy Chinese things step by step with Taobao. In the "Double 11", AliExpress became the number one shopping software download in the Korean App Store.

The "plain and unadorned" Koreans have finally seen China's "Double 11" campaign. We may also be able to imagine future stories. This should be a good story for Made in China.

bad news

Export statistics of "down bedding and quilts" in October——Still lower

Down bedding:

According to Chinese customs data, 3078.4 tons of "down bedding" will be exported in October 2022, down 4.7% month on month from September; The export amount was 159 million yuan, 6.6% lower than that in September.

From January to October, 37,200 tons of "down bedding" were exported, with an export amount of 1.863 billion yuan.

In October 2022, the United States will still be the largest trading partner of China's "down bedding" exports, accounting for 39% of the total exports in that month. Among them, the export volume was 1185.9 tons, 14.8% lower than that in September; The export amount was 50 million yuan, down 18.7% month on month.

Britain was the second largest trading partner in the month, accounting for 14% of total exports; Australia and Germany accounted for 6% respectively.

Down quilt:

In October 2022, 1378.4 tons of "down quilts" were exported, an increase of 0.7% month on month; The export amount was RMB 155 million, down 2.3% month on month.

From January to October, 9439.6 tons of "down quilts" were exported, with an export amount of RMB 998 million.

In October 2022, the United States will still be the largest trading partner of China's "duvet" exports, accounting for 41% of the total exports in that month. Among them, the export volume was 569.2 tons, an increase of 33.4% month on month (MoM) compared with September, rising for four consecutive months; The export amount was 62 million yuan, up 45.9% month on month.

Britain was the second largest trading partner in the month, accounting for 10% of total exports, followed by Japan's 9.7%.

Down bedding and duvet:

From January to October 2022, the export of "down bedding and quilts" totaled 46600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5%; The export amount was 2.861 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%.

Down and feather export statistics of major provinces and cities from January to October - slightly weak

2022年1-10月，羽绒羽毛的出口量和出口额，浙江均位居全国第一。

According to Chinese customs data, Zhejiang Province exported 15837 tons of down and feather from January to October, up 11.2% year on year; The export value was 2.094 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), up 36.4% year on year.

Zhejiang Province exported 1356.0 tons of down and feathers in October, up 22.5% month on month (MoM) compared with September, and similar to the same period last year; The export value was 150 million yuan, up 80.9% year on year.

Unlike Zhejiang, other major down and feather export provinces are almost weak.

Anhui Province exported 14609 tons of down and feather from January to October, an increase of 0.02% year on year; The export value was 1.243 billion yuan, up 31.6% year on year.

Anhui Province exported 865.8 tons of down and feathers in October, with an export amount of 68 million yuan. Although the gap between September and September was not large, the performance decreased by nearly half year on year.

From January to October, Jiangsu Province exported 3910 tons of down and feathers, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%; The export value was 584 million yuan, up 18.0% year on year.

Jiangsu Province exported 180.6 tons of down and feather in October, with an export amount of 16 million yuan.

Guangdong Province exported 1992 tons of down and feather from January to October, down 3.9% year on year; The export value was 221 million yuan, up 2.0% year on year.

From January to October, Shandong Province exported 1009 tons of down and feathers, up 25.8% year on year; The export value was 166 million yuan, down 0.4% year on year.

From January to October, Shanghai exported 613 tons of down and feathers, up 279.1% year on year; The export value was 76 million yuan, up 136.8% year on year.

The industrial chain of white feather meat duck is booming, and relevant listed companies are actively expanding production

In the second half of the year, the prosperity of the industry of white feather meat duck increased significantly. According to the person in charge of a white feather duck breeding enterprise in Shandong, "since the second half of the year, the price of commercial duck seedlings has risen from 2 yuan/feather to more than 7 yuan/feather, and the price of feather ducks has also risen by 1 yuan per kilogram. Recently, with the end of the peak of subsidy, the price of duck seedlings has fallen back."

"Previously, the meat duck industry tended to lag behind the meat chicken industry. This cycle is almost synchronous. The company's benefits in the second half of the year are much higher than those in the first half of the year. If the impact of foreign bird flu continues to stimulate, and the pig price is rising steadily, the industry's prosperity is expected to last for a long time." The staff of ST Huaying Securities Department said so.

The relevant person in charge of Yike Food said that the supply side capacity was reduced, supporting the price of white feather meat duck chain products to rise. "The supply of duck seedlings increased in the second half of the year, so the price fell back. Although the ancestors of white feather meat ducks bred in China, there will be no gap caused by introduction like white feather chickens, but the recovery of biological asset capacity still needs some time, and the increased supply is relatively limited at present."

With the new business cycle of the industry, relevant listed companies are actively expanding production. The above-mentioned person in charge of Yike Food said that it is actively increasing the production capacity of poultry seedlings through cooperation, leasing and other forms. The relevant person in charge of ST Huaying said that this year, the company will no longer sell the duck seedlings on behalf of others, but will all be autotrophic, so as to improve the output to match the downstream slaughter capacity.

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