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Weekly Quotes | Down jacket stores are selling well, but upstream enterprises are hard to

2022-11-20 来源：金绒浏览量：2198

summary

The price of grey duck down fell this week, and the market remained weak.

Recently, the epidemic situation across the country is still severe and complex. The number of newly reported positive infections fluctuates, the number of cross provincial and cross regional epidemics increases, and the old and new epidemics overlap in many places, but the inflection point has not yet emerged.

Due to the epidemic situation, the logistics collection capacity is limited. Many merchants reported that the sales volume of the Double 11 Festival this year had not changed much compared with previous years, but the return rate was higher than previous years due to the delay or non delivery of packages.

Although the cold air has been blowing one wave after another, the warmer weather is still the mainstream. The sales of down products are not warm and the traditional clothing enterprises are suffering from "cold winter". On the raw material side, grey duck down is rarely traded, while the price of high-quality goose down is still firm.

Monday: The price of gray duck down fell

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.0899

Tuesday:Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.0421

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.0363

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.0655

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1091

good news

The sales of down products in the three northeastern provinces increased as the temperature dropped after the snow

Recently, due to the strong cold air, the first snowfall after the beginning of the winter solar term has fallen in many areas in Northeast China, and some roads have frozen after snow. According to the data of Meituan, a retail platform, the sales of duvets in the three northeastern provinces increased by 116% year on year in the last week, while the sales in Heilongjiang Province increased by 213% year on year.

The warm and cold resistant products for going out are rapidly selling in Northeast China, especially the instant retail mode of "online order, 30 minute delivery", which enables young consumers to buy as they like, and also drives the sales growth of warm goods in offline physical stores such as supermarkets.

Down jackets from many shopping malls in Anshan City have become popular clothes for citizens to buy. "After the snow, it became colder, and I felt that I could not carry it in a wool coat, so I came to choose a down jacket." In a fast fashion brand clothing store in Zhanqian Business District, Ms. Wang, a citizen, said.

"Since last Friday, the down clothing sales in the store have been 'warming up'." The clothing salesperson introduced that, as in previous years, down products have been on the shelves since late September, but due to the epidemic and weather, sales have been tepid. But last week's "Double 11" rush, coupled with cooling and snow, has made down clothing into a hot stage.

With the help of strong cold air, many places in northern China have entered the threshold of winter; Most of the south first felt the rare warm heat in November, and then ushered in a "landslide" cooling.

In the next 11-14 days, the temperature in most areas in the north will become lower, while that in the south will be close to the same period of the year or slightly higher.

Affordable and cost-effective! 29 yuan down vest "factory goods" quietly became popular

In this year's "Double 11", many consumers flocked to the factory stores on the e-commerce platform, making the "factory goods" with excellent quality and real prices become popular quietly. Ms. Cheng, a citizen, excitedly shared the link to the 29 yuan down vest with her friends, "I bought one for each of the elderly at home, and they were very satisfied. The amount of down filling is not that high, but the workmanship and style are good, and it is very cost-effective to wear it in late autumn and early winter."

Factory stores and factory goods are a business sector vigorously promoted by major e-commerce platforms in recent two years. For example, during the Double 11 Festival, JD launched the special event of "Great Factory Goods", by jointly building a "factory store direct supply" channel for more than 100 factories. The 29 yuan Pinghu down vest and 49 yuan light down are subject to the factory's direct delivery to consumers.

Daya Factory is a down jacket manufacturer in Pinghu, Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, serving well-known brands such as Armani. It and JD jointly customized down vest products, and the platform's super 10 billion subsidy policy reduced the product price to 29 yuan.

In this cooperation, clothing buyers and factory leaders participated in the whole process. From the selection of raw materials such as fabrics and down, to the strict control of production processes and processes, and the determination of appearance patterns, JD checked at every level, and finally created this amazing factory product.

bad news

Down jacket stores are selling well, but upstream enterprises are hard to "share"

At the end of October, it is expected that Zhejiang will be warmer in the early winter and colder in the later winter this year, and extreme cold weather may occur. Therefore, during the promotion of "Double 11", the winter clothes of offline shopping malls were also sold well.

Recently, in the clothing area of Shaoxing Yintai Department Store, there are not a few customers buying winter clothes, and the mall has also given a strong "Double 11" promotion campaign. "Although the weather is a little hot recently, I heard that it will be cold this year, so I came to buy in advance of the event." In a children's clothing store, Ms. Wang, a citizen, was shopping for down jackets for her children.

With the cold wave rumors and the rapid development of the shopping mall, winter clothes mainly including down jackets sold well in the warm autumn and winter before. According to the department store, the sales volume of winter clothes is much higher than that of previous years. Some counters sell winter clothes as much as 30%, which means that nearly 1/3 of winter clothes have been sold.

However, different from the hot sale of winter clothing in shopping malls, some down jacket enterprises and winter clothing fabric enterprises in Shaoxing have not felt the impact of the cold wave weather for the time being.

A person in charge of a fabric enterprise said that the current market situation is stagnant due to the epidemic situation and exchange rate; A person in charge of a down jacket enterprise said that the epidemic was the main factor affecting sales at present.

Down jackets in shopping malls are popular, which has not affected the upstream enterprises at present. According to an insider, "down jackets in shopping malls may be the stock of last year, even if they are new products this year, they are also produced in the first half of this year."

According to him, there are very few down jacket manufacturers who dare to stock up in advance because of the epidemic in recent years. "In the last two years, we have seen a lot of peers stocking up, but not a few of them failed. It is impossible for manufacturers to stock up on weather news or hot search alone."

"The production of down jackets generally starts at the beginning of the year, and they will appear in the market one quarter in advance. Therefore, the hot sales of winter clothing currently on sale in shopping malls will not affect the production line."

Down jacket is more strict with the implementation of the national standard, and some bloggers said that hundreds of thousands of pieces of goods were smashed in their hands

The temperature has dropped, and the merchants who want to make money by selling low-quality down jackets through Tiktok are also "cold".

On November 1 of this year, against the background of the implementation of the new national standard, Tiktok issued the corresponding rules to control low-quality down jackets. If the down jacket with 50% down content under the old national standard has too much down silk, it may not be sold on the Tiktok platform because the product does not meet the standard.

"When the price of down jackets was the lowest, we stocked up hundreds of thousands of pieces of goods, and now they are all unsalable in our own hands." Tiktok blogger Ms. Xue released a video on November 5.

Another blogger released a video saying that his friends stocked a large number of down jackets in October. After the implementation of the new national standard and the new regulations of the Tiktok platform, most of the down jackets they stocked were substandard.

The problem of selling low-quality down jackets through the live broadcast room has always existed. According to www.china.com.cn, from 2020 to March 2021, Tiktok banned nearly 70000 illegal down products and frozen more than 700 illegal stores.

However, Mr. Wang, a down jacket manufacturer in Lu'an City, said he did not recommend the production of down jackets up to the standard of 50% of the new national standard.

He said that under the 2011 version of the national standard, manufacturers can also fill down silk to increase the down content. Now the new national standard limits the amount of down silk and feather silk, and can only fill in feathers, but feathers pierce people. Therefore, under the new national standard, down jackets with 50% down content and below cannot be worn at all.

Mr. Zhou, a manufacturer in Taiqian County, also believes that the new national standard is only suitable for 90% or more of the specifications. At present, the new national standard is mainly used by brands.

Down jacket OEM industry is expected to decline by 10% in the fourth quarter

The main customers adjusted their inventory, and the fourth quarter operation of the down jacket OEM industry remains to be observed and tested. Guangyue (4438)'s revenue fell from the peak in the third quarter in October. With the slowdown of the order momentum of global brands like nike and adidas, the legal person estimated that the operation in the fourth quarter would decline by 10% compared with the third quarter.

The market pointed out that whether the operation of the garment factory will resume growth in the first quarter of next year will depend on the sales performance of Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day in Europe and the United States. In addition, the clothing industry can analyze the consumer market trend in 2023 from the sales process, and decide the product ordering direction and specifications as soon as possible.

With the help of the peak season effect and exchange earnings, Guangyue's revenue and profit in the third quarter hit a record high in the same period, but the revenue in October was 1.521 billion yuan, down 44.69% from September.

Guangyue pointed out that the fourth quarter is the traditional off-season. After the peak of winter clothing shipment, the operation will decline compared with the third quarter. However, it is expected that under the optimization of the product portfolio, the revenue and profit in the fourth quarter of this year will still grow compared with the same period last year.

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