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Weekly Quotes | The epidemic situation is getting worse, and the temperature will rise again in November

2022-11-06 来源：金绒浏览量：1290

summary

Down and feather prices fell this week, and the market continued to weaken.

Recently, the epidemic situation is severe and complex. Large scale outbreaks have occurred in many provinces. In addition, the virus strain is spreading very fast and has strong concealment, making it more difficult to quickly extinguish. As a result, the express delivery in many places has been suspended, which has seriously affected the business of merchants, and the sales of down products are not optimistic.

The weather in November has a key impact on down jacket consumption. Usually, there are many cold waves in this month, but after the recent cold air has passed, the temperature in many parts of China will rise again in the next few days. The continuous epidemic and the absence of cold weather have shrunk the market orders.

As the Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply again, the wind of tightening in overseas countries suddenly rose. Experts predict that the RMB will have some depreciation pressure in the short term, but because the demand for foreign exchange settlement of enterprises increased in the fourth quarter, it still has elasticity and resilience in the medium and long term.

Monday: Prices of all categories have fallen

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1768

Tuesday:Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.2081

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.2197

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.2472

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.2555

good news

Forecast of winter climate trend in 2022/2023 - cold air starts to strengthen in late January (for reference only)

On November 3, 2022, the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration released the Forecast of Climate Trends in Winter 2022/2023 and Spring 2023.

The National Climate Center predicted that this winter (from December 2022 to February 2023), the intensity of cold air affecting China is generally weak, and the temperature in most parts of the country is close to the same period of the year or higher. From this prediction, it is unlikely that China will have a cold winter this year.

At the same time, however, the National Climate Center pointed out that this winter's temperature change is characterized by obvious stages, which are warmer in the early stage and colder in the late stage.

From late January 2023 to February 2023, the cold air intensity will gradually increase, and the temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will be close to the same period of the year or lower; The northern part of Northeast China and the eastern part of Northwest China may have staged strong cooling and snowfall processes, while the southern part of central China and the southeastern part of Southwest China may have staged low temperature, rain, snow and freezing weather.

On the whole, it is still possible to "freeze and cry" this winter.

Down jacket has become a daily wear, and the consumption scope has been expanded invisibly

These days, although it is still early to winter, the enthusiasm of many citizens to buy down jackets has come ahead of schedule. In various clothing stores, new down jackets have also become the main products.

"This is the new down jacket that we just put on the market last week. Although it is light and thin, it is especially warm and beautiful in color." Wang Yaqin, the manager of a brand women's clothing store, said that this year's new down jacket has been put on the shelves. Compared with previous years, the light down jacket is more popular with customers. The price is generally between 1000 yuan and 2500 yuan, which is the same as last year.

In the interview, the dealers of men's and women's clothing of many brands said that the hot sales of down jackets this year had arrived earlier. The main reason is that more and more consumers are changing their style.

Specifically, in the past, many consumers used down jackets as their wearing choices in extreme cold weather, but now, many consumers, especially young consumers, use down jackets as their daily wear in non autumn winter and early spring seasons. The consumption scope of down jacket has been expanded invisibly.

bad news

There are many places across the country that cannot deliver goods, and the merchants have suffered a terrible loss

Recently, the epidemic situation in Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing and other cities has repeatedly stopped delivery in many places, which has seriously affected the business of merchants.

Some businesses said that they had been sealed at home for a whole month, and the orders for the National Day activities had not yet been issued; Some businesses also said that they had been numbed by the closure, and now the sales volume of the stores dropped, and if they were closed again, the stores would close down.

Lao Zhu, a fashion brand clothing merchant in Tmall, sighed: "Now it can be sustained, but I don't know how long it can last." According to its disclosure, at present, 40% of the stores are located in Guangdong, and shipping itself has become a problem. "

According to the actual situation of many merchants, the problems of return and non delivery have led to a direct decline in sales.

Lao Zhu found that the sales of the store had dropped from 70000 to 80000 yuan/day a week ago to 30000 to 40000 yuan/day now. In his opinion, whether it is the place of receipt or the place of shipment, once there is an epidemic, the platform will prompt that this process will reduce the order rate of consumers and further reduce the conversion rate.

Now that the Double 11 Festival is coming, Lao Zhu has chosen to participate in this year's Tmall promotion. He felt sure to participate. Although the increase was not large, it could be three to five times more than usual. When talking about whether there is a prevention plan, Lao Zhu said frankly: "No, what I can do now is to report to the platform in time (orders that cannot be delivered due to the outbreak of the epidemic) to reduce losses."

The report of world avian influenza was released from September to October - extremely risky

According to the latest report of WOAH (World Organization for Animal Health), from September 1, 2022 to October 11, 2022, a total of 145 new cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (poultry) were reported globally, an increase of 42% from the previous report (June 30 to August 31).

During the reporting period, 14 countries reported 145 new poultry outbreaks (Algeria, Belgium, Canada, Chinese Taipei, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States).

Sixteen countries and regions reported 197 new non poultry outbreaks (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States).

Compared with the last report (9 weeks), this report cycle is shorter (6 weeks), but more new outbreaks of avian influenza are still reported, and the number of poultry losses increased by 279% month on month.

Recently, neighboring Japan, India and the Philippines have had bird flu outbreaks, killing about 400000 poultry. The head of the animal health department of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan said: "Wild birds and poultry have been infected with avian influenza at an unprecedented early stage. I think the risk of virus invasion is high."

Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said on its website on the 28th that a chicken farm in Cangfu City, Okayama Prefecture, in the west, was culling about 170000 chickens, and about 1120000 chickens were banned from moving and being transported outside. An epidemic has also occurred in a chicken farm in Hokkaido's Hozen cho, where about 170000 chickens will be culled.

On November 1, it was reported that a chicken farm in Guanyinsi City, Xiangchuan County, Japan, found several chickens dead on October 31. After detailed investigation, it was confirmed that they were infected with H5 subtype avian influenza virus with a high mortality rate. The chicken farm became the third chicken farm in Japan to suffer from bird flu this season. About 40000 chickens were culled.

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