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Weekly Quotes | The weather gets hot, feather products sales forecast dropped

2022-10-24 来源：金绒浏览量：2247

summary

Down and feather prices fell this week, and the market was weak.

The subtropical high, which should have retreated to the sea, has returned. Under its influence, the temperature in Jiangnan and South China will increase significantly. Although there will still be two waves of cold air going south in the next few days, the impact will be northward and it is difficult to change the pattern of warming in most parts of the country.

Influenced by this significantly warmer weather, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood in the short term. Although the sales of down products at the terminal have improved, the feedback to the upstream industry shows that there is no substantial improvement, which cannot change the overall situation of the depression.

With the economy of the United States and Europe in trouble, the textile and clothing industry throughout Asia has felt the decline of orders. At the same time, the unprecedented energy crisis is spreading to the clothing and textile industry in Europe. The foreign trade market of down and feather is also in turmoil.

Monday: Prices of all categories have fallen

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1095

Tuesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1086

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1105

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1188

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 7.1186

good news

Working overtime,Down Garment Industry Belt Prepares for Tmall Double 11

This year's Tmall Double 11 pre-sale will start at 8:00 p.m. on October 24.

One million down jackets are put into storage, and employees work two shifts every day until late at night; The daily shipment volume of the five main factories exceeds 10000 pieces, and more than 100 temporary employees are fully engaged... This is the daily stocking of two men's clothing brands in Changshu, Jiangsu, Yalu and Cloth Legends Tmall Double 11.

Wu Jianliang's cloth clothing legend began in a Taobao shop. He said: "Tmall can let me see the growth of data clearly every day. I have a clear idea of the sales volume of Tmall Double 11 and am confident." Including goods preparation, the cloth clothing legend has invested more than 80% of the resources in Tmall this year.

Yalu, who has entered the 50th anniversary this year, also wants to make a dash in Tmall Double 11. "The amount of goods in stock is ten times that of ordinary days. Tmall has a large and stable number of users, so we can stock up with confidence."

As one of the well-known down brands in China, Peng Xuetao, the head of Yalu Men's Wear Flagship Store, has set a small goal for himself: Tmall Double 11 this year, with a single store selling 1 million pieces.

He Bo, the head of Tmall Men's Wear Industry, said that Changshu's advantages in down jacket, middle-aged and elderly and business men's wear will be transformed into industrial competitiveness covering the whole industry chain with the enhancement of regional characteristics.

The order is secure, and the business of the down jacket OEM factory is guaranteed

With the impact of global inflation, the uncertainty of terminal clothing consumption has increased, and the textile industry is generally conservative about its operations before the first half of next year. However, the market believes that the spinning fiber factory with stable growth in orders in the uncertain economy should still be expected to operate in the fourth quarter.

Quang Viet, a large down jacket factory, said that the group's operation was not affected by market fluctuations. This year, brand customers placed strong orders. The visibility of orders reached the fourth quarter, with full capacity and stable growth in operation.

According to the statistics of Quang Viet, the orders of major customers such as NIKE have doubled this year. The North Face and Patagonia have more than 30% growth, while the UA has more than 40% growth. The visibility has even seen next year.

KWONG LUNG, another down jacket OEM factory, said that orders for ready to wear clothes would be secure this year, and the visibility of orders would have reached the first half of next year.

KWANG LUNG pointed out that from the perspective of the current customer base, the number of orders placed by the old customers was flat, but there were four to five new customers in North America and Oceania, and they have been trying orders in succession. The expansion of new brand customers will be a major driving force for the sustainable growth of operations next year.

Zhan Hebo, chairman of KWANG LUNG, said that in order to increase the production capacity of ready to wear clothes, in the future, it will improve Vietnam's existing production capacity, expand cooperation with Vietnam Cooperative Factory and increase outsourcing capacity. KWANG LUNG plans to expand ten production lines in its own factory in Vietnam, and strive to cooperate with the factory to add another 15-20 production lines to join the production.

bad news

It's suddenly hot! Behind the expected decline of down jacket sales, the market still lacks confidence

Just when everyone thought that this year's weather would skip autumn and go straight to winter, the weather began to warm up again, and the sales of down jackets were expected to fall back soon. This has also led to the weakness of down jacket fabric orders.

Behind this, we can see that although the current market may occasionally break out, the overall market still lacks confidence. Nowadays, most garment enterprises will not place large orders as in previous years. The main reason is that they are also experiencing the downturn of the industry. It is better to stay in the market than to accumulate inventory.

The Central Meteorological Station predicted that the average temperature in most regions of China in the next 10 days from October 17 to October 26 will be higher than that in the same period of the year. The cold air was weak around the 21st, and only around the 26th did a stream of cold air affect most parts of northern China from north to south.

The weather is hot. Is this a sign of warm winter? In fact, the recent anomaly of the atmospheric general circulation model requires more attention to the intense extreme weather.

Terminal sales are booming, but the upstream industry has not improved substantially

Wang Weifei, a senior analyst, said: "The sudden drop in temperature has stimulated the release of demand for warm and cold proof articles, and the demand for clothing has also been released. However, these demands are also just in demand. If the temperature does not drop suddenly, they may be released a little later."

Zhu Yaqiong, polyester analyst of Longzhong Information, said: "Although the terminal sales have improved and even some commodities have been sold vigorously, the feedback from the upstream 'weaving polyester industry' shows that there has not been a substantial improvement."

Zhu Yaqiong said: "Now, the market is no longer limited to the" Double 11 "and" Double 12 "activities. At the same time, the inventory of finished clothing and home textiles is high in autumn and winter, and the off-season sales have come into everyone's view early in summer, overdrawing the consumption quota in advance. Later, the influence of the" Double 11 "and" Double 12 "activities is gradually weakening."

Marketers reported that in recent years, the order volume of traditional offline sales mode in the field of clothing and home textile has gradually shrunk, and the sales volume of online, especially live broadcast platforms has been growing. "The promotional efforts of merchants for the" Double Eleven Day "launch have decreased compared with the previous period, and the pre-sale of this year's" Double Eleven Day "may not be as expected."

Avian influenza continues to spread, and the price of poultry meat products has reached a record high

According to a report on the website of the US Consumer News and Business Channel on the 18th, the continued spread of bird flu is likely to affect the price and supply of American Thanksgiving turkeys this year. According to the report, bird flu usually spreads in colder months, but this year, turkey producers reported bird flu cases in July - just when farmers increased their stocks.

The severe epidemic, together with the rising feed prices and labor costs, has made the price of chicken in the United States hit a record high. The retail price of boneless and skinless chicken breast meat in September rose by 112% over the same period last year.

This year, 47.6 million poultry have been affected, and avian influenza has been found in 42 states of the United States. In order to control the spread of the epidemic, breeders must cull all poultry. From January to July, 5.4 million poultry were culled.

US officials said that the virus subtype of this bird flu is the same as that of the current European bird flu virus. Since February, the epidemic has spread to 42 states, twice as much as that of 2015. Rising temperatures usually reduce the prevalence of avian influenza, but the virus survived in the summer. At the same time, the virus is spreading in Europe, and nearly 50 million poultry have been culled as a result.

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