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Weekly Quotes | Duck down market fell slightly, goose down remained strong; the foreign trade situation of down and its products became more and more sluggish

2022-09-26 来源：金绒浏览量：4930

summary

Duck down market fell slightly last week, goose down remained firm, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood.

Under the influence of La Niña, the first snow in northern North China this winter came a little early, but this cold air offensive will soon be covered by warm air. The "cold winter" has not yet been confirmed, and the traditional downstream orders continue to be sluggish in the peak season, and the price is in a state of dilemma.

With the National Day approaching, retail is expected to gradually recover, and a large number of brand owners have launched the 2022 winter down jacket marketing campaign. In recent months, the foreign trade of down and its products has been sluggish, so the domestic demand market may dominate the down market trend this autumn and winter.

On September 21, the Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 75 basis points, and as the rate hike landed, the exchange rate of the offshore and onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell below 7.1 one after another. The continued strength of the US dollar has caused a large amount of international funds to flow back to the US capital market, resulting in high inflation and currency depreciation in many countries and regions, which has hit the world economy again.

Monday: The price of white duck down and gray duck down fell, white goose down, and gray goose down remained the same

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9396

Tuesday:Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9468

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9536

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.9798

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.992

good news

8月“羽绒寝具及被子”出口统计——羽绒被大卖

Down bedding:

According to China Customs data, 3,666.3 tons of "down bedding" were exported in August 2022, a decrease of 6.1% from July; the export value was 189 million yuan, an increase of 6.0% from September.

From January to August, a total of 30,900 tons of "down bedding" was exported, with an export value of 1.533 billion yuan.

In August 2022, the United States remained the largest trading partner of my country's "down bedding" exports, accounting for 37.6% of the month's total exports. Among them, the export volume was 1466.7 tons, a decrease of 27.3% from July; the export value was 61 million yuan, a decrease of 12.0% from July.

Germany was the second largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 7.1% of total exports; followed by the UK at 6.6% and Australia at 5.9%.

Duvet:

In August 2022, 1,616.5 tons of "down duvets" were exported, an increase of 50.2% from July; the export value was 168 million yuan, an increase of 55.9% from July.

From January to August, a total of 6692.5 tons of "down duvets" were exported, with an export value of 684 million yuan.

From April 2022, the United States has greatly expanded the import of "down quilts", thus surpassing Japan and Australia, and becoming the largest trading partner of my country's "down quilt" exports. In August, the United States accounted for 28% of total exports for the month.

Previously affected by the "Xinjiang cotton ban", the proportion narrowed sharply in June. In August, the number of exports to the United States was 303.1 tons, a month-on-month increase of 27.9%; the export value was 30 million yuan, a month-on-month increase of 15.7%.

Germany was the second-largest trading partner for the month, accounting for 19% of total exports, followed by the UK at 18%. In August, the export of duvets to European countries increased significantly.

Down bedding + duvet:

From January to August 2022, the export of "down bedding and quilts" totaled 37,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.7%; the export value was 2.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%.

The temperature in many parts of the country is record low, and the process of entering autumn will be promoted

Beginning on September 18, the cooling "drama" in the north has quietly opened, and the temperature in many parts of the country has reached a new low in autumn. You are still wearing short sleeves in the south, and the temperature in the northeast is in the single digits. You have to wear down jackets when you go out in these places.

Since the 22nd, a new wave of strong cold air has followed, and many counties and cities in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Hebei have successively suspended cold wave warnings. Snowflakes not only danced on the prairie of Inner Mongolia, but also a layer of snow appeared on some landscapes of the Winter Olympic Village. Local netizens said: It used to snow at the earliest in October, and this year is half a month earlier than in previous years.

Under the successive "attacks" of these two cold air, not only the pattern of high temperature in the early stage of the central and eastern parts of my country will be completely broken, but the process of entering autumn in the North China Plain, Sichuan Basin and other places will also be promoted. Shijiazhuang and other places are expected to enter autumn in the meteorological sense in the next ten days.

The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that in the next few days, the cold air will affect the north frequently. It is expected that the average temperature in the eastern part of the Northwest, North China, Northeast China, and eastern Huanghuai will be 1-2°C lower than the same period of the previous year. But it's still too early to say whether this winter will be retaliatory cold.

Bosideng "Outperforms the Industry", the big show kicks off the intensive marketing of the peak season

Recently, Gu Ailing Eileen, the spokesperson of Bosideng's official announcement, held the "Redefining Lightweight Down Jacket" show in Shanghai, which opened the prelude to the promotion of the peak season.

In this big show, the company intends to promote "November" sales, and will also enter an intensive marketing period for the peak season; at the end of October, the company will officially announce the male spokesperson and hold a second big show to promote "Double Eleven" sales.

CICC released a research report saying that it maintains Bosideng (03998)'s "outperform industry" rating, with a 35% upside potential compared to the current share price. The bank believes that the innovative light and thin down jackets are expected to continue to drive Bosideng's brand power and product power to enhance the company's performance stability.

The innovative lightweight down jacket is priced at 999-2199 yuan in the Bosideng Tmall flagship store, covering the needs of mid-to-high-end consumer groups. In addition, since the light and thin down jackets can extend the sales cycle before the peak season and after the Spring Festival, improve the stability of performance and further enhance the flexibility of sales.

bad news

Down clothing import and export statistics (August) - the peak season ends early?

2022年8月，羽绒服装合计出口 998.6 万件，环比上月减少了 1.7% ；出口金额为 21.6 亿元人民币，环比上月增长了 0.01% 。

August 2022 export list of down jackets

name	Quantity (Ten thousand)	RMB (billion)	Quantity YoY	Amount YoY
cotton men's jacket	158.7	2.10	-54.5%	-50.4%
chemical fiber men's jacket	282.2	7.10	-16.2%	12.7%
cotton women's jacket	93.5	1.41	-6.9%	1.1%
chemical fiberwomen's jacket	464.2	11.02	-2.5%	13.7%

Export of men's down jackets in the past 14 months

Export of women's down jackets in the past 14 months

It can be seen from the data that the export of down jackets is in the peak season, but the export volume in August fell by 20.9% compared with the same period last year!

Exports of cotton down jackets are clearly affected by China's ban on the overseas circulation of cotton. In last year's peak export season, the export categories of men's down jackets were slightly more cotton, but this year's situation is just the opposite. The problem is that the export volume of cotton men's down jackets has dropped by more than half compared to the same period last year.

Affected by the continued high inflation and rising inventory in major export markets such as the United States and Europe, China's down apparel exports stopped growing in August. Bad signs have appeared, and the most worrying thing is whether the peak season will end early?

In terms of imports, in August 2022, a total of 699,000 down garments were imported, an increase of 62.8% from the previous month; the import value was 768 million yuan, an increase of 71.4% from the previous month. Down jacket domestic sales war is imminent.

Down and feather export statistics of major provinces and cities from January to August - continued decline

From January to August 2022, Zhejiang ranks first in the country in both the export volume and export value of down feathers.

According to China Customs data, Zhejiang Province exported 13,374 tons of down and feathers from January to August, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year; the export value was 1.769 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 37.7% year-on-year.

Zhejiang Province exported 1455.1 tons of down and feathers in August, with an export value of 175 million yuan.

Previously, Anhui maintained the country's first export volume during the year, but it was overtaken by Zhejiang in May.

Anhui Province exported 12,758 tons of down and feathers from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; the export value was 1.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.2%.

Anhui Province exported 1457.6 tons of down and feathers in August, with an export value of 97 million yuan.

The export volume of Jiangsu Province continued to be sluggish.

Jiangsu Province exported 3,456 tons of down and feathers from January to August, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%; the export value was 538 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%.

Jiangsu Province exported 227.0 tons of down and feathers in August, with an export value of 32 million yuan.

Guangdong Province exported 1,779 tons of down and feathers from January to August, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year; the export value was 205 million yuan, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year.

Shandong Province exported 853 tons of down and feathers from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%; the export value was 134 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%.

"Booming orders" have changed to "lack of orders", and the "order shortage" in Southeast Asia is coming a little faster

Many people who are engaged in foreign trade export business in Southeast Asian countries said that in recent months, they have indeed felt that orders have decreased significantly. Annika, the person in charge of a garment factory in Myanmar, felt the decrease in orders earlier, "My factory mainly accepts orders from Europe. Since March and April, I have found signs of a decrease in orders, and most of the customer orders have decreased. "

According to the Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City Business Association, in this round of "order shortage", Vietnam's textile industry has been hit the hardest. November.

It is worth mentioning that, unlike in the past, the export orders of my country and Southeast Asian countries have "one and the other". This round of "order shortage" in Southeast Asia may not have the situation that orders have fallen back to my country.

"Under high inflation and weak demand, developed economies in Europe and the United States have reduced import orders one after another, which has led to a shortage of orders in Southeast Asian countries." Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist at Everbright Securities, said.

Mr. Su, the person in charge of a listed company in the A-share textile industry, believes that last year's shipping was not smooth, and many customers were worried that the shipping capacity would continue to be tight, so they added a lot of orders and prepared a large amount of inventory, so they needed to be digested this year's Christmas season, which also led to This year's orders are not as saturated as last year.

Gao Ruidong said that many countries in Southeast Asia are important order transfer countries in my country, and they are closely related in many industrial chains. The decrease in orders in Southeast Asia has a certain impact on my country's related industrial chains. Among them, my country's textile and other light manufacturing fields, which are deeply tied to Southeast Asian industries, are considered to be greatly affected.

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