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Weekly Quotes | The domestic epidemic spreads in many places, causing concerns about sluggish demand

2022-09-04 来源：金绒浏览量：1734

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At the end of August, the domestic epidemic spread again and again, especially in the three major cities of Shenzhen, Chengdu and Wuhan. The front is the superimposition of traveling home and students returning to school, followed by the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day "two festivals" approaching. With the increasing import and liquidity risks, epidemic prevention and control is facing a major test.

This wave of epidemics has also raised concerns about sluggish demand in the industry, and the recovery of the manufacturing industry has been repeatedly disrupted. The sluggish experience of last winter made today's downstream merchants have to wait and see again and again, and the down and feather market has returned to a sideways state.

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the number of ducks in the stock plummeted, resulting in a rapid rise in the price of ducks recently. The good news is that the factors affecting the high temperature have been significantly alleviated, and the quotation of ducklings has dropped rapidly. It is expected that the overall price will return to a reasonable price after the game.

Monday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.8698

Tuesday:Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.8802

Wednesday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.8906

Thursday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.8821

Friday: Prices of all categories are flat

Exchange rate of USD to RMB: 6.8917

good news

World Meteorological Organization "official announcement" La Niña

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on August 31 that in recent weeks, the La Niña phenomenon involving large-scale cooling of sea surface temperatures has intensified in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with increased trade winds.

WMO predicts that La Niña is likely to last until the end of the year, making the mysterious "triple dip" the first time this century.

Specifically, the possibility of La Niña continuing in the future is 70% from September to November 2022, but will gradually decrease to 55% from December 2022 to February 2023. It is reported that the La Niña phenomenon began in September 2020.

WMO Secretary-General Taalas said: “La Niña for three consecutive years is extraordinary. Its cooling effects have temporarily slowed the rise in global temperatures, but will not halt or reverse the long-term warming trend.”

The latest WMO notification also shows that from mid-July to mid-August 2022, La Niña conditions have strengthened, affecting temperature and precipitation patterns, exacerbating droughts and floods in different parts of the world.

For China, the "La Niña" phenomenon often means that the autumn rain will come earlier and stronger, and the probability of extreme cold events in winter is greater than in previous years. But it needs to be emphasized that extreme cold does not mean cold winter, because extreme cold occurs in a short period of time, while the definition of cold winter is the whole winter.

"China's Arctic" Mohe ushered in the first frost this autumn, 17 days earlier than last year

Affected by the cold air, on the 1st, the lowest temperature in Mohe City, Daxing'anling, Heilongjiang Province, the "Arctic of China", dropped to -4.2°C, ushering in the first frost since the beginning of autumn this year, 17 days earlier than last year.

Starting from the night of August 31, the temperature in Mohe City continued to drop. In the early morning of the 1st, the leaves of the trees in the urban garden of Mohe were covered with crystal clear hoarfrost, and the blooming flowers were also covered by a thin layer of frost. Citizens and tourists who went out for morning exercises put on down jackets and hats to keep out the cold.

According to Xu Liling, director of the Mohe Meteorological Observatory, Mohe City has just stopped raining recently, and at the same time, affected by the cold air, the temperature has dropped sharply, ushering in the first frost this autumn, 17 days earlier than last year. However, in the next few days, the temperature in Mohe City will pick up.

Monitoring data from the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration shows that during the period from August 24 to August 28, the temperature in most parts of northern my country has reversed to a low state, and even more than 4 degrees in many places. This is seriously low, and the area with low temperature has accounted for half of our country's territory.

This shows the recent intensification of cold air activity in the north, and the strength of the cold air from Siberia to the south is not bad. The supercomputer also predicts that the cold air accumulated on the Siberia and Mongolian plateaus will continue to move southward, and will again infiltrate into southern my country on a large scale around September 1.

From the previous observational data, there is no obvious correspondence between the summer heat and the winter cold. The recent significant increase in the cold air in my country is still a manifestation of the abnormal atmospheric circulation and the violent oscillation of the westerly belt, which does not mean that this winter will be particularly cold. So this winter, it remains to be seen.

The energy crisis in Europe is becoming more and more serious, and down products may be sold out of stock

Electricity prices across Europe have soared to record levels in recent days and continue to rise, with the impact of the energy crisis expanding.

Wang Ruiqi, senior natural gas analyst at Jinlianchuang, said: "I think the price is still on an upward trend, mainly because the winter is coming and there is a demand for replenishment in Europe. If the Beixi line is closed or the supply does not come up, the supply tension will further increase. intensified."

Wang Ruiqi also said: "With the unstable gas supply, the safety of gas use in winter in Europe is still not guaranteed. In addition, some experts predict that this year will be a cold winter, when the demand in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will increase, and the supply will be tighter."

The price of natural gas in the UK is 10 times higher than the average of the past 10 years, and hundreds of households in the UK have already expressed their intention to turn off their heating this winter in interviews.

According to a survey of 2,000 British adults conducted by the British Savanta-Conres survey company, 69% of the respondents planned to turn on the heating less this winter; 23% of the respondents said they would not turn on the heating. Among parents with children under the age of 18 , the proportion rose to 27%.

According to the forecast of Haitong International, the gap between natural gas supply and demand in Europe in winter is expected to be about 10 billion cubic meters, and in extreme cases it may reach 30-45 billion cubic meters. The first and fourth quarters of each year are heating seasons in Europe. This year, down jackets and eiderdowns in European countries are likely to be out of stock.

bad news

The adjustment of the imported feather policy is conducive to the expansion of imported feathers

On the morning of August 30, the China Down Industry Association held an online briefing on quarantine measures for entry washed feathers, to interpret the new quarantine measures for entry washed feathers and feathers recently released by the General Administration of Customs.

The biggest change in this adjustment is to adjust the qualification standard of washed feathers to turbidity ≥ 50mm. On the premise that the on-site inspection is qualified, the turbidity can be released; if the turbidity test fails, the batch of feathers shall be sampled for avian influenza virus detection.

According to the requirements of SN/T 2517-2010 "Operation Rules for Quarantine of Entry Feather and Down", the transparency index of entry washed feather and down must comply with the provisions of 5.2 in GB/T 17685-2003. Among them, the transparency index of washed goose feather duck feather is greater than or equal to 350mm, and the transparency index of washed duck down and goose down is greater than or equal to 450mm.

In GB/T 17685-2016, the transparency is changed to turbidity, and the index requirement of turbidity is increased to ≥500mm.

In addition, if the virus test result is positive, the enterprise shall be notified according to law to return or destroy the batch of goods; if the test result is negative, the batch of goods shall be released after effective fumigation treatment according to the actual port and the wishes of the enterprise, or Supervise the transportation to the feather and down processing enterprises designated by the customs in the customs area directly under the port's jurisdiction and release it after thorough washing.

Importers from all over the country have said that the adjustment of the import inspection and quarantine policy has really solved the long-standing problem for importers and has a milestone significance for my country's down industry. Chairman Yao emphasized at the meeting that the adjustment of the import policy is conducive to expanding the import of feathers.

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